2024 Impact Study - One Thing to Fix: QBs 1-25
One Thing to Fix (Impact QB 1-25)
Pobody’s nerfect – especially college quarterbacks. Even the best prospects have fixable flaws or concerning habits that can be addressed.
Naturally, these traits can be exacerbated when playing heightened competition. While showings against Poop State and Awful A&M might be nice for the statsheet, true ability can be muddied thanks to the lightened degree of difficulty. And when trying to find guys that can do things others can’t, watching dudes beat up defenses most can knock out is an overly worthless exercise.
That is the basis of the Impact Study: analyze the nation’s top passers against their hardest opponents to better gauge their performance, upside, and shortcomings. Even though the metrics might take a hit, the tape can be full of helpful insight into how a fellow might translate to the next level.
No, not every QB’s slate is the same. Some were even excluded from the study due to cupcake schedules. But “standardizing” the group in this manner still was immensely beneficial… particularly identifying elements each passer needs to fix this fall. Let’s focus on the top25 within On3’s Impact Ratings and see what they should shore up this season.
“High Volume” Impact Qualifications (38 passers)
+88 Pre-Season On3 Impact Grade
+125 pass attempts in 5/6/7 game sample
+2 games vs Top50 SP+ AND EPA/Pass DEF
Key Terms:
Accuracy% - percentage of perfectly placed, on-target passes that don’t require unnecessary adjustments
Uncatchable% - percentage of passes that had no chance of being completed due to off-target placement
Depth Adjusted Accuracy - weighted Accuracy% that gives more risk/reward based on distance of target
ADOT - average depth of target, or how far a receiver is when thrown the ball on average
“Floor” Passing - clean, non-Screen/Play Action/RPO attempts inside the pocket
Dropback - non-screen/RPO attempts
Downfield - targets over 10 yards past the line of scrimmage
Deep - targets over 20 yards past the line of scrimmage
Explosive Pass Rate - a pass that nets 20 yards or more
Interceptable Pass Rate - a pass with potential to be picked off due to bad timing, vision, ball placement
ANY/A - adjusted net passing yards per attempt
Carson Beck: Georgia – Pressured Passing
There aren’t many potholes on Beck’s passing profile, but he can solidify his stock this fall with more poise under pressure. Already susceptible to turnover-worthy throws against heightened competition, risky passes were quite visible under duress. Of his 13 interceptable passes in our Impact study, 5 came across his 29 stressed attempts. The Bulldog’s 19.1% rate was the worst among his peers. Beyond the boo boos, both his raw and depth adjusted accuracy figures placed inside the group’s bottom7. But his shoddiness wasn’t just centralized to his hardest opponents. Across the entire 2023 season amongst SECers, only KJ Jefferson posted a lower Accuracy% and only Ken Seals produced a higher Interceptable Pass Rate than Beck’s 33.3% and 15.8% clips, respectively when stressed. Fortunately, Beck was among the least-pressured passers last year. And while that’s assumed to continue, playing from prevalent pristine pockets always won’t be the case.
Quinn Ewers: Texas – Passing without Guises
In back-to-back Impact studies, Ewers has failed to show he can consistently throw optimal passes without scheme help. And in the context of our Impact study, all of his ball placement metrics – Uncatchable%, Adjusted Completion%, Accuracy%, Depth Adjusted Accuracy%, and Interceptable% – when clean inside the pocket and not targeting screens, RPOs, or play actions fell below the group average. Without the scheme facilitating his job or creating gimme completions, Ewers seems to be a passer who succeeds despite a flawed process. That inherently creates questions and allows haters to call him a fraud. After all, it’s not just one year falling below the standards set by his peers; or one or two metrics being mid. Two years in a row, Ewers sported stats you soundly don’t want to see from a fellow with a next-level arm.
Jaxson Dart: Ole Miss – Pocket Work
Super Spread QBs do not have a great hit rate at the next level. Explaining why is an entire article unto itself. Each individual case has differing factors. Regarding Dart, he might not be elite at any one thing or have a totally glaring statistical flaw. When called upon, Dart showed he can operate without scheme help, extend broken plays, exhibit nice eyes on progressions, and provide juice to his offense’s run game – things that often snag development at the next level. But his mechanics within the pocket could improve. His dropback is a little “heel clicky”. So, his foundations aren’t always set or prepared to withstand a quick blowback. For a dude known to bull defenders over and not shy away from contact, he shouldn’t go down that often from minimal contact. His lower body is way too strong to let that happen – highlighted by dozens of examples of him punking defenders one-on-one in the open field. And while this throwing balance is acceptable, the way he pats the ball prior to release slightly slows down his operation. Perhaps an idiosyncratic thing that helps him feel more confident in what he’s doing, the extra beat often allows rushers to close the gap, alter throws, and manufacture turnover-worthy plays.
Shedeur Sanders: Colorado – Sack Avoidance
This one is a no-brainer. Against his six hardest opponents last year, Sanders logged twice as many sacks as erasures. He and Jalen Milroe were the only two Impact study QBs to total more than 29 takedowns. And across the entire season, only Old Dominion’s Grant Wilson accumulated more than his 49. Plus, his 25.3% PFF Pressure:Sack Ratio fell into the nation’s bottom30. Though okay at extending and shedding rushers, the easiest path towards improvement is speeding up his internal clock and knowing where to go with the football. When Sanders likes what he sees pre-snap, he usually has little trouble taking care of business, and passes come out with haste. But when he buffers, he can drop his eyes and blindly go into hero mode where he’s clearly less effective. Sanders must see the field better and recognize coverage disguises in a much more efficient manner to achieve his first-round aspirations.
Jalen Milroe: Alabama – General Accuracy
Torn between a number of suggestions, ultimately Milroe has to address his sour ball placement. Yes, he’s eager to push the ball vertically. Yes, he’s too reliant on latter down playmaking. Yes, he takes too many sacks. But he won’t be a serious passing prospect until he can consistently deliver on-target throws and limit duds. In our Impact study, barely half of his attempts were on the mark, and only one of his peers logged a lower Depth-Adjusted Accuracy% than his 38.2% clip. On snaps without screens and RPOs providing him slight boosts, both of his figures were even worse. Nearly a quarter of his throws against his hardest opponents were straight-up uncatchable. Across 2023, 63 passes were categorized as such, which were the 5th-most in the SEC by volume. With biffs bruising his bottomline, no returning SEC starter owns a worse raw Accuracy% than his 56.2% figure.
Dillon Gabriel: Oregon – Contested Window Lollipops
Gabriel improved tremendously as a midrange and pressured passer across his first two seasons as a Sooner. Plus as his legs have strengthened, his maturity saw his deep ball placement finish among the Impact study’s top performers. Replicating those showings will be paramount. But while his ducks and stalled-out moonshots have diminished, Gabriel still has a bad habit of serving up some slop when targeting tight windows. Since 2022 versus his hardest opponents, over 20% of his contested attempts have been interceptable with over 30% being altered by defenders. Of his 7 overall picks in that span, 5 came on these kinds of attempts. For context, these figures track to be average within the SEC. But, average rarely brings home meaningful hardware or wows next-level scouts. When it's crunchtime, can he be trusted to thread the needle and secure key completions?
Cam Ward: Miami (FL) – Post-Snap Diagnosis
Ward is an undeniably talented QB. He can drive the ball vertically, make plays in backyard ball, and throw accurately downfield. When he likes what he sees, passes come out fast and on-target. Still, Ward still logs far too many negative plays after buffering or getting tricked post-snap. And as he held onto the ball, he invited pressure and general chaos. Interestingly enough, he was the only college QB with a top10 lowest average time to throw when clean while landing in the opposite end of the spectrum on pressured attempts across 2023, per Pro Football Focus. Drop8 coverages specifically appear to give him issues. Regardless, he’s finished below the Impact average back-to-back years in Sack Rate and Dropback Sack Conversion Ratio. Though very sound pre-snap, Ward must get quicker identifying opposing looks and avoid defenders. Along with the takedowns behind the line, Ward’s Interceptable Pass Rate fell on the wrong side of the Impact study’s average.
Will Howard: Ohio State – Risk/Reward Under Pressure
Even though his traditional stats look stale, Howard was one of the Impact study’s most precise passers targeting beyond ten yards downfield. He particularly liked hitting his guys over the middle into the heart of the defense. Avoiding turnover-worthy throws can be difficult with that kind of spray. For various reasons, over a quarter of his throws against his hardest opponents were contested, which would have been a top4 mark across the 2023 SEC slate. Yet despite his proclivity for testing tight windows, Howard’s Impact Interceptable Pass Rate bettered year-over-year – except when he faced pressure. For the second-straight study, over an eight of his duressed dropbacks could’ve been picked off. Plus, his pressured Explosive Pass Rate remained in the single-digits. Of his 6 pressured INTAs by volume in our study, 5 traveled less than ten yards downfield. It’s one thing trying to make a bucket throw deep along the sideline; and it’s another thing entirely risking a turnover for a seven yard curl. At least, his pass catchers should be better overall separators than his Kansas State crew and potentially limit his affinity for tight window tries.
Riley Leonard: Notre Dame – Downfield Production
Though savvy and cerebral, Leonard’s passing profile lacks a high volume of big time throws. Over the last two Impact studies, 72% of his attempts targeted a receiver within ten yards of the line of scrimmage. His 2022 slate showed some promise. But that year, he was still closer to mid than good ala a below-average downfield Uncatchable Pass Rate. Leonard’s legs helped him maintain a sturdy playing floor. But, ailments this past season soured his overall outlook. When analyzing throws over ten yards in this study, all of his ball placement figures finished in the group’s bottom3 including a 45.2% Uncatchable% and 26.2% Accuracy that were multiple points worse than the next Impacter in line. Poise and intangibles can get you far. But in order to take a leap and live up to his overall hype, the Golden Domer must flash by hitting downfield targets consistently.
Brady Cook: Missouri – Midrange Passing
Saying Eli Drinkwitz favors the intermediate passing game would be a flat-out lie. Since 2020, no Missouri passer has topped a 20% makeup targeting that area of the field; and their QBs have placed inside the league’s bottom5 in such usage each of the last 3 years. Lots of teams lean into the dink and chunk operation – where screens, short stuff, and shots largely compose the scheme’s passing spray. Still, Cook could round out his resume by shoring up his offerings between 11-20 yards downfield. In back-to-back Impact studies, his midrange Completion%, Accuracy%, and Uncatchable% all have been at least 10 percentage points under the group average. Moreover, he’s never posted an acceptable Interceptable Pass Rate in this context. With Luther Burden being his WR1, Cook is set to have a really tasty season even if things stay the same. That said, the Tigers’ offense will gain even more teeth if he’s just an average intermediate passer; moreso if he can become a good or great one.
Garrett Nussmeier: LSU – General Catchability
As a low-volume player, Nuss was left out of this past Impact study. But he has still logged a number of snaps and shown he can make noise slinging the pill. In 2022, his 8.5 Adjusted Net Passing Yards/Attempt (ANY/A) was the 6th-best in the SEC. And this past fall, he was 1/6 conference passers to log a +50% Depth Adjusted Accuracy%. He can heatseek and nab key completions. But if he’s to keep LSU’s pass game among the SEC’s most successful, he must limit his number of biffs. Each of the last two seasons, Nussmeier’s Uncatchable Pass Rate has topped 20%. For reference, the conference average is about 18%. And though he’s a totally different style passer, Jayden Daniels’ clip was an SEC-best 12.8% in 2023. Nuss doesn’t have to deliver Heisman-level efficiency in order for the Tigers to thrive. But, it’s a fair ask to not be a subpar passer.
Nico Iamaleava: Tennessee – Passing Potency
With only one real appearance as a true freshman last year, Iamaleava remains a little bit of a wildcard ahead of 2024. But one way the former five-star can immediately impact Tennessee’s pass game is to provide it with potency. Despite having one of the mightiest arms in the sport, Joe Milton failed to parlay that into downfield production. On the league’s 2nd-worst Depth Adjusted Accuracy%, his 8.8% Explosive Pass Rate fell into the SEC’s bottom4. And needing completions to take heat off the box, Josh Heupel maximized stack sets with gap runs and tunnel screens. Across the year within the conference, only Graham Mertz and Carson Beck targeted behind the line of scrimmage more per attempt. Captain Obvious wanted me to remind you that the easiest way to capture 20+ yard completions is to be good at throwing 20+ yards downfield. And explosives tend to lead to a lot more points than copious dinks and dunks. For what it’s worth, only 3 SEC offenses since 2020 cracked the top5 in Points/Gm without having a top5 Explosive Pass Rate. Even if Iamaleava sports average efficiency in this context, the Vols can quickly join the playoff discussion.
Noah Fifita: Arizona – Downfield Production
Jedd Fisch’s scheme put an emphasis on stressing opponents sideline-to-sideline rather endzone to endzone. Both of Arizona’s QBs finished in the bottom16 in percentage of throws behind the line with bottom25 ADOTs across 2023. Against his hardest opponents, 60% of Fifita’s yards came after the catch and under 30% of his throws traveled beyond ten yards past the line of scrimmage. Only Cam Ward had a lower downfield makeup in our study. Moreover, over half of Fifita’s explosive passes (20+) occurred on short-focused targets in those games. It remains to be seen if the coaching change will instill more aggressiveness. And though he shouldn’t press or uncomfortably force things every dropback, his 59% intermediate Accuracy% in our Impact study was top5 amongst our crop and his 12.7 Y/A across 2023 was top10 nationally. For as strong as a midrange passer as he projects to be, targeting that area of the field more ought to juice his game up a little.
Donovan Smith: Houston – Vertical Drive
Smith is a prototypical passing prospect. A sizable drink of water at 6’5, 241, he sports some of the prettiest in-rhythm throwing mechanics in the class. He shows a nice transfer of weight, the ball shoots up-and-out on his release, and maintains a firm base with minimal lower-body activity. Though drops soured his stats in our Impact study, Smith’s 50.7% Depth Adjusted Accuracy% finished on the good side of the golden threshold. Plus, his raw Accuracy% on throws targeting over ten yards downfield placed inside the group’s top10. There’s a lot to like about his game. And it’s easy to talk yourself into the first-round hype. One hangup, however, is his capped verticality. In the games versus heightened competition, his deep ball had a clear range and tended to die right at 44 yards downfield on a number of occasions. Distance-wise, that’s fine but not elite. Whether dragging his back foot, working from muddy pockets, or wanting to throw timing-driven deep balls, several factors prevented him from potentially showing better drive. So, there’s an argument he can make strides in that department. But either way, it will be hard to talk yourself into spending a high draft pick on him if nearly half of his deep balls are uncatchable against good secondaries for the second-straight year.
Joey Aguilar: Appalachian State – TO Avoidance Under Pressure
Aguilar does a fantastic job of negating sacks with a quick release. But since he will not wow you with arm talent, he’s susceptible to being forced into mistakes by opponents. Again, he operates fairly well from muddy pockets. But while he throws a very catchable ball, he fails to ideally place passes where defenders can’t get involved. And when the heat is on, that shortcoming is accentuated. Even excluding a few instances where the ball was knocked out of his hands in the act of throwing, roughly 18% of his pressured snaps in our Impact study were turnover-worthy. Only five of his peers posted a less preferable Interceptable Pass Rate. And in this context, he was 3x more likely to log an interceptable than an explosive completion. And per Pro Football Focus, his 13 ‘Turnover-Worthy Throws’ across 2023 were the 4th-most nationally. That has to stop. But since his pressured ball placement metrics were at least mediocre in our study, there’s hope his gall under the gun can follow suit.
Kaidon Salter: Liberty – Refine Mechanics
On paper, you really cannot knock Salter’s profile. Across 2023, he earned the 3rd-most Expected Points Added and finished top10 in ESPN’s QBR. In our impact study, his 10.4 overall ANY/A was the best in the group. But despite his robust results, his process was a little wonky thanks to inconsistent throwing mechanics. Both his upper and lower body operations showed concerning hitches at times. This erraticism caused poor ball placement. Intermediate routes were often left a beat or two behind targets. And, passing outside the numbers was hardly his strong suit. Moreover, Salter stunk attacking tight windows; only completing 6/21 such throws against his hardest foes. Overall, both his raw Accuracy% and Uncatchable Pass Rate finished inside the Impact bottom8. Darts did show up on tape. And, his longest downfield target was 54 yards past the line of scrimmage. So, Salter has the capacity to be a next-level QB even with abundant scheme help guiding his success. But unless he refines his mechanics to fix his subpar precision, him making the league is far from guaranteed.
Jackson Arnold: Oklahoma – Pressured Passing
Being an inexperienced starter, Arnold is likely to invite plenty of pressure this fall. Moreover, the Sooners are replacing all five starting OL (with the very real possibility the first string will be composed of transfers). Testing their resolve as a unit will almost certainly be a point of emphasis from opponents to neutralize Oklahoma’s offense and stress out their young gun. Though Arnold is a former-five star and full of potential, he lacks prototypical size. If his clock is sped up, vision obstructed, or timing skewed, mistakes could follow. Limiting those boo boos will go a long way in his career starting off sunny. But, Arnold’s limited showings versus duress have hardly impressed. Still, he did display signs of a quick release capable of beating pressures.
Conner Weigman: Texas A&M – Limit Tossups
Weigman often gets praised for his intangibles. Moxy, grit, poise, steadiness, etc are traits commonly associated with him. Despite the adversity of suffering from one of the worst Pressure Rates in college football, Weigman often got passes off and generally gave his target’s opportunities to make plays. He routinely avoided negative plays even with the harsh degree of difficulty. That said, critics can claim he still isn’t a great placer of the football. Over the last two seasons, no SECer has a higher Tossup Rate than his 24.7%. And besides his former teammate Max Johnson, Spencer Rattler was the only other conference passer to see over 3% of their targets result in “created catches” – where receivers went above and beyond to complete the play – each of the last two seasons. While Weigman did avoid serving up lollipops and turnover-worthy plays, that level of dependence on 50:50 balls is a drawback; especially considering half of his 2023 opponents finished as the two worst EPA/pass defenses. He’s only started a single game against a top40 defense according to that metric. The concern being: he might have been able to steal completions against lackluster secondaries. And due to the dull accuracy, regression might be on the horizon when he finally faces elite competition.
Garrett Greene: West Virginia – General Accuracy
Greene was the most downfield-oriented passer in our Impact study. Over 46% of his throws traveled beyond ten yards downfield, which beat the next guy in line by over 2 percentage points. And including all attempts from last year, no returning Core4 QB logged a higher Deep Pass Rate than his 24.7%. Leaning hard into the boom/bust operation, overall consistency wasn’t a strength of West Virginia’s offense. And aiming at far away targets hurt Greene’s ball placement figures. Against heightened competition, barely half of his overall throws were on-target, and over a quarter were deemed uncatchable. And when even adjusting his accuracy to account for his added depth – his 42.5% clip was the Impact study’s 7th-worse figure. Plus, none of his peers posted a lower Adjusted Completion% compared to Greene’s 63.1%. On pure dropbacks – excluding screens and RPOs – Greene’s placement stats remained red flags. Along with a double-digit Interceptable Pass Rate, none of those metrics finished outside of the group’s bottom5.
Jalon Daniels: Kansas – Interceptable Passes
Despite Kansas’ gadgety scheme’s habit to generate explosive gains, Daniels often pressed his luck forcing things to his receivers. Using his 2022 Impact study as a guide, about 24% of his throws targeted tight windows. That mark would’ve placed inside the SEC’s top5. A number of these chances were telegraphs where his eyes would lead help-defenders right to the ball. Some were off-target tries that turned a wide-open attempt into a contested tossup. And, others were your standard stabs at threading the needle vs tight coverage. Additionally, of his 15 interceptable throws, 11 came on contested targets. And because of his propensity to put the ball into harm’s way, his passing profile rocks a red flag. Daniels’ overall, downfield, pressured, dropback, play action, and “Floor” (clean dropbacks inside the pocket without screen/RPO/PA) Interceptable Pass Rates all fell below the Impact standard in their respective breakouts.
Miller Moss: USC – Interceptable Passes
If Moss is to be Lincoln Riley’s 4th QB1 to win the Heisman, he must cut down his risky ball placement. Yes his outlook is murky due to his lone career start coming in last year’s bowl win against Louisville. Along with 6 tuddys and seeing over a fifth of his attempts gain at least 20 yards in that game, there’s reasons for optimism. Still despite wonderful results, his process wasn’t perfect. His down-and-around motion takes an extra beat to release, he can lock into guys, and his bases can vary. All of those are bad recipes that can lead to inconsistency; and potentially turnovers. Pressure in particular seems to force him to try more throws off his back foot, which led to a few tossups versus the Cards. Again a small sample, but if his 15.1% Interceptable Pass Rate qualified for our Impact study, it would have been the field’s worst figure by over 5 percentage points. Moss must show more poise and mechanical consistency to match his confidence.
Seth Henigan: Memphis – Deep Passing
Sadly due to unavailable footage, Henigan was once again left out of our impact study. On the surface, he’s thrown for 3-straight 3,000 yard seasons and has seen both his TD total and Completion% improve each year. Plus, 2023’s 2.7% PFF Turnover-Worthy throw rate soundly beat the national average. Statically, there’s really not much to knock. But for someone with an above average Deep Pass Rate over the last two years, posting a subpar Deep Adjusted Completion% is not a good look. But despite leaving plays on the field, his production hasn’t been undercut. Boosting his deep passing volume by about 100 yards year-over-year, Henigan almost generated 1,000 yards on these throws in 2023 – good for a top15 mark in college football. Imagine his numbers if his deep passing process marginally improves.
Graham Mertz: Florida – Downfield Production
As the only SECer to dedicate over 30% of his throws behind the line of scrimmage last year, Mertz morphed into one of college football’s most preeminent Checkdown Charlies. And according to SEC StatCat, he joined Mac Jones and Will Rogers as the only other conference passers to target those outlets at a double-digit clip in a season since 2018. Moreover, no Core4 passer turned in a lower average depth of target than his 6.7 figure. Mertz clearly avoided risky throws for surefire completions. But it remains unclear if that was an order from on-high or if he himself aimed to reduce boo boos. Considering Florida’s high motion and play action rates, there’s a strong inference it was more of the latter. Because when Mertz did target beyond ten yards downfield, he displayed sour ball placement stats. Both his raw Accuracy% and Uncatchable Pass Rate fell below the conference average across 2023. And when isolating his 15+ yard attempts, no SECer posted a worse Uncatchable Pass Rate than his 45.5% clip. All the while, only Joe Milton saw a lower makeup of his yards come on downfield throws than Mertz’s 43.6% mark. Hammering this point home, no Impact study QB this past season owned a lower Deep Accuracy or UNC%. Mertz must become more threatening. Because, Florida beating expectations by only taking what the defense gives them remains a dubious proposition.
Tyler Van Dyke: Wisconsin – Interceptable Passes
For much of 2023, TVD was a walking turnover. His 21 interceptable passes were the most in our Impact study, and only Jayden Maiava turned in a worse such rate than his gaudy 12.1% clip. But while it’s easy to chalk up those clunkers to carelessness or inaccuracy, Miami’s top opponents often led on the scoreboard, which forced Van Dyke to press and play hero ball. An absurd 76% of his sample occurred when the ‘Canes trailed by at least a field goal and nearly 40% came when down at least two TDs. In our study, only a pair of interceptables happened when tied or ahead of foes. Meanwhile, 11 were logged when down 14 points or more. And, a number of his giveaways took place on patterns where he had no viable checkdown or underneath outlet. Obviously, these snaps swung ball games and Miami’s season at large. But considering TVD’s otherwise strong ball placement metrics, he by no means is a lost cause as he takes his talents to Madison this fall. Along with a top4 Uncatchable Pass Rate on pure dropback attempts amongst Impacters, his 53.1% Depth Adjusted Accuracy was top5.
Drew Allar: Penn State – Downfield Production
Allar’s conservative operation is a bit deliberate, but he doesn’t require a lot of effort to generate fastballs or drive the ball deep. And despite the mellow modus operandi, his natural tools simply provide him a higher upside than most of his peers. Though an excellent caretaker avoiding sacks and turnovers, Penn State won’t reach its ultimate goal only by attempting to log fewer mistakes than opponents. Allar doesn’t need to do a complete 180 and play YOLO ball. But, he’s got to be more potent. After all, he was firmly our Impact study’s least-explosive passer. He only mustered a 5.6 overall Yards/Attempt when facing heightened competition. Underlying accuracy issues might prevent improvement in this regard. Hopefully with the hiring of Andy Kotelnicki at OC, the scheme will show more pizazz and passer-friendly patterns that lead to big gainers. Chances to hit downfield receivers come a little easier when they’re wide-the-hell-open. But, another year of succeeding short certainly won’t create any additional sex appeal for Allar. He must improve his aggression, anticipation, and production attacking downfield.