IMPACT STUDY SUPERLATIVE CLASSES

Early June isn’t quite Talking Season. But, the buzz coming out of spring ball has undeniably started conversations, debates, and viral takes. 

And like every year, QB play is often driving discussions. But with the varying quality of opponents across this great game, basic box score stats just cannot tell the whole story and false narratives can arise. 

Just in time to enjoy the summer sun and enter the chat, I have emerged from my dark charting cocoon to further enlighten college football fans regarding their favorite passers via the Impact Study. 

Cutting out the fat and only charting QBs against their best defensive opponents just carries more weight and holds more value than snaps against Crap College or teams ranked in the triple-digits statistically. Increased adversity allows both the metrics and tape to provide more insight into how a passer operates, what they were asked to do, and when they found the most success. After all, when trying to find guys that can do things others can’t, watching dudes beat up defenses most can knock out is an overly worthless exercise. 

I’ve learned the hard way that fans don’t care much for numbers, charts, or overly detailed breakdowns. TL;DR, amirte? So to distill all the enriching information found across this year’s Impact Study, our crop has been placed into varying superlative categories that highlight their styles and statistical profiles. 

“High Volume” Impact Qualifications (38 passers)

+88 Pre-Season On3 Impact Grade

+125 pass attempts in 5/6/7 game sample

+2 games vs Top50 SP+ AND EPA/Pass DEF

(FYI: Some Low-Volume Impacters were included as honorable mentions)

Key Terms:

Accuracy% - percentage of perfectly placed, on-target passes that don’t require unnecessary adjustments

Uncatchable% - percentage of passes that had no chance of being completed due to off-target placement

Depth Adjusted Accuracy - weighted Accuracy% that gives more risk/reward based on distance of target

ADOT - average depth of target, or how far a receiver is when thrown the ball on average

“Floor” Passing - clean, non-Screen/Play Action/RPO attempts inside the pocket

Dropback - non-screen/RPO attempts

Downfield - targets over 10 yards past the line of scrimmage

Deep - targets over 20 yards past the line of scrimmage

Explosive Pass Rate - a pass that nets 20 yards or more

Interceptable Pass Rate - a pass with potential to be picked off due to bad timing, vision, ball placement

ANY/A - adjusted net passing yards per attempt

Field Stretchers: Guys who like to throw downfield due to scheme, personal aggression, or underlying arm talent

1. Jalen Milroe: Alabama

 Longest Depth of Target in Study: 49

The Crimson Tide’s QB is undeniably exciting. A major element to his captivating style of play is his propensity to push the ball deep downfield. And against his hardest foes, Milroe’s verticality was on full display. Even though his overall pass volume was near the bottom in the Impact Study, no one came close to matching his lofty 22.4% Deep Pass Rate (20+). In fact, no other Impacter cracked the 19.5% threshold. And unsurprisingly, the Tider’s overall and dropback average depth of target (ADOT) each hold the gold medal at 13.6 and 15.2, respectively. A clear “Field-stretcher Fred”, Milroe’s bombs-away approach does hurt his general accuracy. I feel obligated to remind you that his raw and depth adjusted accuracy clips finished bottom5 within the SEC last year. Still, this Heisman Hopeful’s aggression makes him a threat to hit a dinger anytime he drops back. Plus, it doesn’t hurt his standing that he has PFF’s top returning deep pass grade at 96.9.

2. Garrett Greene: West Virginia

 Longest Depth of Target in Study: 47

According to Pro Football Focus, no returning passer is more prone to tossing “big time throws” than Neal Brown’s bombardier. Across the entire 2023 season, his 10.2% such rate was tops in the nation by a full percentage point. Captain Obvious wanted me to remind you that checkdowns, quick-game concepts, and conservative operations rarely yield impressive throws that get scouts’ attention, moreless log BTTs. Though his slate was not as challenging as other Impacters, Greene dedicated a higher percentage of throws downfield (10+) than anyone else in the group with 18.5% of attempts targeting deep. His sample’s 15.1 Dropback ADOT just missed being tied for tops in the study. Plenty of dimes popup on tape. But like Milroe, shoring up his precision will be paramount to how high he (and the Mountaineers) can climb up the rankings this fall. He was 1/7 Impacters to log a sub-50% Accuracy% on dropbacks and joined KJ Jefferson as the only other one to do that on “floor” attempts (clean dropbacks inside the pocket without play action). 

3. Kaidon Salter: Liberty

 Longest Depth of Target in Study: 54

Coming off a year where he accumulated the 3rd-most expected points added in college football, Salter is a trendy pick as the top non-Core4 passer in college football. His incendiary M.O. obviously was crucial to the Flames rise to glory. As his highlight reel indicates, Salter was a big fan of slinging it deep. Across the entire season, only two QBs logged a higher Deep Pass Rate than his 26.1%. And while, his verticality wasn’t as demonstrative in our impact study, his 13.7 ADOT on pure dropbacks cracked the group’s top5. Overall, no one toppled his gaudy 10.4 Adjusted Net Passing Yards/Attempt figure. Aiding fuel to his red hot resume, Salter displayed high-end arm talent slinging a pass 54 yards past the line of scrimmage – one of the top distances in the study. 

4. Byrum Brown: South Florida

Longest Depth of Target in Study: 46

Playing in the Super Spread Offense can exacerbate a passer’s strengths and weaknesses. Focusing on the former, Downtown Byrum Brown has one of the mightest arms in the nation. Across 2023, USF’s scheme facilitated a top20 Deep Pass Rate (20.3%) while his talents netted top10 average distance on deep throws (32.3). His highpoint release travels downfield with haste, even if ideal touch and placement are presently lacking. In our study, only one other Impacter recorded a worse Completion% on throws over 10 yards downfield than his 28.6% clip. Though a clear area of opportunity for the Bull’s big-armed QB, his top3 Impact ADOT on pure dropbacks hints the verticality will very much remain in USF’s plans. Brown will boom or bust based on how he progresses in this area. But in terms of ability to drive the ball deep, he firmly checks that box. 

5. Anthony Colandrea: Virginia

Longest Depth of Target in Study: 51

Colandrea is a gem. Under 6’0 and overlooked by many playing for a 3-win team, he’s a sneaky candidate to make a larger name for himself behind his downfield offerings. Despite his unimposing stature, Colandrea logged the Impact Study’s 2nd-highest Deep Pass Rate and had a ball travel 57 yards beyond the line of scrimmage – overshooting his man by a good 18 feet in play. Granted, that toss and other examples of outpacing his targets deep undercut his profile. Still from where I sit, missing long is better than inviting interceptables through underthrows, lollipops, and tossups. Plus all the while, the Cavalier’s chucker snatched a top10 Explosive Pass Rate (+20 yards gained) overall and in “floor” situations in our study. And for what it’s worth, his sample’s overall 7.2 ANY/A tracks above the group’s average. Not to make an ass out of you and me, but if we assume a moderate amount of his near-hits become key completions moving forward, he’ll be a darkhorse for ACC Offensive Player of the Year.

HM: Preston Stone, Kyron Drones, DJ Uiagalelei

Checkdown Charlies: The opposite of a Field-stretcher Fred

1. Graham Mertz: Florida

After some audacity in Madison, Florida’s QB1 morphed into one of college football’s most conservative passers year-over-year. Starting with his verticality, his Impact ADOT as a Gator was over 3 yards smaller than his Impact figure in 2022 as a Badger. Across the entire season, no Core4 QB turned in a lower figure than his 6.7. He was the only SECer to deliver over 30% of his throws behind the line of scrimmage. And as the nation’s standard bearer, this Checkdown Charlie did exactly that last fall. Since SEC StatCat has come into existence in 2018, only three passers have completed a season with a double-digit Checkdown Rate in charting: Will Rogers, Mac Jones, and now Mertz. Passing up downfield targets for surefire completions saw a number his metrics bolster. But, Florida will need a little more aerial potency if it's to ascend up the conference standings. The scheme with its bevy of play actions and motions does open the door to an uptick in zealous throws. And the SEC just saw a similar veteran epiphany that resulted with a Heisman. The blueprint is there. That said, avoiding risk might remain the status quo. 

2. Cade Klubnik: Clemson

It’s one thing if a QB logs gobs of interceptable throws targeting deep downfield and occasionally nabbing explosives; and it's another thing entirely if a QB logs gobs of intercepables trying to matriculate down the field six or seven yards at time. Unfortunately, Klubnik tracks to be the former. Facing plenty of pressure sparked a hot potato approach but placid placement happened too infrequently. Even excluding the two SEC secondaries he faced to close 2023, his hardest opponents experienced a double-digit Interceptable Pass Rate. Directing the bulk of his passes underneath, his 27.3% Downfield Makeup fell into the Impact group’s bottom5. Subsequently, nearly 23% of his throws went behind the line. Though Clemson’s muted passing isn’t entirely on Klubnik, his decision-making receives the bulk of the criticism. Without scheme elements, pressure, or work outside the pocket, his situational ANY/A falls into the Impact Group’s bottom8. 

3. Will Rogers: Washington

As an Air Raider, Rogers saw an eighth of his passes target a checkdown. As a Spread-a-Haner, he logged one of the 20 lowest ADOTs in college football. And as a Husky, he will most likely maintain one of the nation’s most dinky modus operandi. His new scheme won’t require him to evolve too much. The pairing is near-optimal; especially if Rogers’ decision-making, timing and rhythm from 2021 can be mined. Both of Arizona’s QBs finished in the bottom16 in percentage of throws behind the line with bottom25 ADOTs across 2023. Jedd Fisch prefers a West Coast style keen on getting the ball out to playmakers in space, not unlike the approach of Rogers’ former captain Mike Leach, where high-end arm talent isn’t a requirement. The change in scenery might transform a passer’s floor, but the Jolly Rogers has overly shown his true colors over the course of 2,034 dropbacks. Sure, he will throw deep on occasion or hit a crosser in the midrange game every now and then. But, the vast majority of his throws are safety valves and short targets.

Offensive Executives: A more diplomatic way to call a guy a ‘Game Manager’ while also acknowledging a high rate of schematic help 

1. Byrum Brown: USF

The family of super spread offenses can branch off to create individual characteristics. But whether rooted in vertical-choice patterns, horizontal stressors, or spread run philosophies, this style of play always features abundant play action. Both true play fakes as well as backfield meshes via ample RPO looks are demonstrably more visible compared to other operations. When focusing on Alex Golesh’s rendition – an offshoot of Josh Heupel’s on Rocky Top – the overall action usage for his passer was off the charts. For reference, Tennessee’s Joe Milton logged a Total Action Rate just under 47% across all throws in 2023, which led the SEC. Brown’s figure in our study was a staggering 55%. About 41% of his throws came off true play action alone. And when it was all said and done, Brown used a scheme element on just under 69% of his attempts. Nice. 

2. Quinn Ewers: Texas

Steve Sarkisian will be the first one to tell you that his offense likes to get frisky with motion usage. Creating pre-snap leverage and tipping backends, motions often facilitate his QB’s job before the ball is snapped. When facing heightened competition last year, Sark fed Ewers a form of a motion setup on 39% of his attempts. Roughly 22% of used at-snap motions (jet, orbit, returns) alone; practically doubling the 2023 SEC average of 12.7%. Though Ewers didn’t maximize these snaps, other prominent scheme elements boosted his bottomline. On true play actions – that accounted for about a third of his sample – he saw his overall 8.1 ANY/A jump up to 9.6 along with improved raw Accuracy%, Uncatchable, and Interceptable Pass Rates. Plus, he rocked the group’s 2nd-highest Screen+RPO Rate. Ultimately, just over 36% of his throws occurred on standard dropbacks without scheme elements. 

3. Dillon Gabriel: Oregon

Despite transferring, it’s a safe bet that Gabriel will remain one of college football’s most prolific offensive executives. Funny enough, Pro Football Focus claims both he and Bo Nix posted the exact same Screen Rate (22%) last year. That firm also had 52% of his overall dropbacks using a form of action, which was the 2nd-highest in all of football. In our study, about 35% of his attempts came off using a true play fake. Only Byrum Brown and Taylen Green used it more. An additional 30% of his throws targeted other scheme elements. But even though Gabriel loses some fire without guises in structure, he sports one of the best floors in the Core4. Either way, he’ll be asked to stress foes side-line-to-sideline. Gabriel won’t be super-duper conservative. But it’s notable to remember Nix’s ADOT was among the nation’s 8-lowest in college football last year. 

4. Garrett Greene: West Virginia

As a child of the Air Raid, Neal Brown used to not get too cute with ample scheme tactics. The core philosophies of the aerial attack used to be enough to have an edge. But as defenses caught up, Air Raiders either had to evolve or grow obsolete. And when you lack a statuesque pocket passer, play callers need to get crafty. Ditching the grip it and rip it methodology for a more modern setup, Brown colored up Greene’s offerings by featuring scheme elements on over half of his attempts against his hardest opponents. Not to mention, a bunch of stuff was orchestrated outside the pocket to optimize the 5’11 Greene’s throwing lanes (29.8% to be exact including extensions and scrambles). Though RPOs showed up on over a fifth of his throws, dropback play actions were the real catalysts. Heatseeking for big gainers – per his Explosive and Interceptable Pass Rates bumping up over 4 percentage points – his ANY/A ripened from 6.9 to 8.8. Accuracy concerns sour his outlook. But Greene has the capabilities to have a great 2024. 

5. Kaidon Salter: Liberty

Jamie Chadwell has been clowning lower-level defenses for some time now. And there’s hardly any reason to believe that this trend will change in the short-term. Moving the pocket, setting up a shot, trickling in some trickeration, and featuring triple option looks (including RPOs.. commentary!), are just a glimpse in how he schemes up his passers for wins and video game numbers. Seeing a guy streaking downfield uncovered is a fairly common occurrence across their slate. And most times, scheme wrinkles are the reason why. Other than Taylen Green, no Impacter finished above the group average in Screen+RPO, PA, and Outside Pocket Makeup. 

HM: Jaxson Dart, Taylen Green, Nico Iamaleva, Jackson Arnold

Wingmen: Guys who have to let if fly with not much schematic assistance 

1. Riley Leonard: Notre Dame

A key reason why Leonard’s intangibles appear to be lightyear’s beyond his peers is the fact his play callers hardly ever schemed up easy wins for him. Run game stuff aside, less than 27% of his pass attempts over the last two Impact studies have used tactical elements. In 2023’s sample specifically, no one used less. Injuries or otherwise, the gameplan typically anchored him inside the pocket; none of his peers were less stationary in comparison. And at the same time, only one other Impacter used true play action less often than his 5.3% Makeup. Talk about a sitting Duke… or duck; sorry. Leonard manages to avoid negative plays among the best in the nation as is. That, frankly, was not the case with the last QB to transfer into Notre Dame. Plus, the Irish didn’t have an offensive coordinator fresh off the game’s top rebranding efforts of the last couple of seasons. So, there’s a great case to be optimistic he’ll be the passer who takes the largest leap in 2024.  

2. Hudson Card: Purdue

Despite a change up-top, the Boilermakers overly rode with the Brohm Raid last year. And as a standard branch-off from the Air Raid, the offense can be straightforward. Of course, undergoing a slate full of high-end opponents in cold weather forced Card to operate at a deficit for much of his sample. So a more direct, dropback approach was sought. The run:pass marriage wasn’t a sunny one. And, the overall results were pretty mellow. After all, it wasn’t just stale plays that rusted up his resume. His pass catchers produced a double-digit Drop Rate. Despite all that, Card’s 45% Success Rate was right on par with the group standard. 

3. Cam Ward: Miami (FL)

Hammered home by his bad habit of buffering, Ward is still developing his eyes. Though a skilled sender on RPOs, he often loses his mark when he drops his gaze or turns his back towards opponents. For three-straight Impact studies, his playcallers were aware of this happenstance. He’s received a healthy diet of RPOs but has limited his true play action usage. This past year, his 4.3% Makeup was the Impact study’s floor, finishing roughly 10 percentage points lower than anything prior. Thanks to his extensions, his usage outside the pocket inflated. But looking at true schemed wins, he was 1/3 Impacters with over 70% of his sample occuring true dropbacks.

HM: Rocco Becht, Cam Rising

Performers Under Pressure: Guys who hang tough and take care of business under the gun

1. Quinn Ewers: Texas

In the age where scouts desire passers who can improvise, create, and show arm talent from a number of platforms, Ewers is one of those rare players. When pressured, that trait is often on full display. For the second-straight Impact study, both his raw and depth-adjusted Accuracy figures beat the standard. In fact excluding throwaways, only one other 2024 Impacter had a preferable Uncatchable Pass Rate in this context. His quick hammer nailed a number of downfield throws while not giving defenders chances at takeaways. Nearly a quarter of his pressured throws resulted in a gain of at least 20 yards – no other Impacter posted an Explosive Pass Rate over 20%. And his sub-3% Interceptable Pass Rate earned the group’s bronze medal. Of course, Ewers functions in a terrific environment and is often set up to succeed and avoid adversity. Only 21.2% of his Impact dropback attempts came under pressure, one of the 3-lowest in our study. But he has shown he's quite capable of holding his own and whipping strikes around rushers. 

2. Dillon Gabriel: Oregon

Pressured passing is volatile, unpredictable, and full of variables. With so many moving parts and factors in addition to the actual on-field stress, results can vary. Yes, opinions of one’s performance under pressure can form over many years. But for college kids, it can be a crapshoot. Take Mr. Gabriel for example. He went from a bottom15 PFF pressured pass grade in 2022 to the top6 last year among Core4 QBs. That’s quite a swing. Though he displayed middling ball placement figures during his first year in Norman, things like Success, First Down+TD, and Explosive Pass Rates were decidedly bad. This past season, however, Gabriel posted the study’s premier figures in areas. The same was true in his blistering 9.6 ANY/A and 10.7 Y/A. The robust returns were largely due to his receivers not dropping a single target. Plus, over half of his throws were on-target. Things can change in a new environment, but Duck fans have to be pleased that all of his passing process and result metrics topped the group average. 

3. Noah Fifita: Arizona

Fifita is a feisty player and likes to keep positive inertia in the pocket. Bobbing and weaving like a boxer looking for his opening, the undersized field general commonly is unfazed when rushers are about to deliver a punch. On a double-digit ADOT against his hardest opponents, both his raw 56.6% Accuracy and 73.2% Adjusted Completion cracked the group’s top3 while his Uncatchable Pass Rate was top4-worthy. With an emphasis focusing downfield under the gun and premier accuracy, he snatched laudable returns via a 45.3% Success Rate and 35.8% First Down TD Rate, which were top5 amongst the group. Fifita’s stature, however, can goad some boo boos. Obstructed vision and altered releases resulted in his Interceptable% topping his Explosive%. And because of a few misfires, his pressured 5.2 ANY/A was rather middling in the study. But to rosecent his profile, Pro Football Focus graded him as a top5 returning pressured passer ahead of this fall. 

4. Graham Mertz: Florida

Though he often was quick to give up on downfield designs in lieu of an underneath completion, Mertz’s short-field focus was also the byproduct of bad blocking. He routinely had to deal with pressure as over a third of his true dropbacks in our study experienced stress from rushers. But while his ADOT remained on the low-side, Mertz showed some teeth in these situations. While posting a double-digit Explosive Pass Rate, both his pressured Success and First Down+TD Rates beat the group average by roughly 8 percentage points. Additionally, the Gator posted the crop’s best raw Accuracy% and didn’t throw a single interceptable pass. That’s remarkable no matter how risk-averse a passer operates. On the year, only four Core4 gained more yards when pressured. With no one boasting a better such PFF pass grade (80.5). 

5. Diego Pavia: Vanderbilt

A team like New Mexico State doesn’t find actual victories without maximizing wins in the margins. And this former high school wrestling champ noticeably played with a chip on his shoulder and willed his team over expectation in plenty of those areas; most noticeably when facing duress. Whether staying on his feet shedding rushers with his low center of gravity or hanging tough vs on-coming blitzers, Pavia commonly rose to the occasion and made plays for his squad. His 54.3% Depth Adjusted Accuracy was only bested by three of his peers. And despite a 15.4% Drop Rate that would break most passer’s bottomline in this context, his 44.2% Success finished inside the top3. Though he didn’t stretch the field as much as other Impacters when pressured, no one wasted less attempts. Not bad from a performer who saw a bottom5 Pressured Dropback Rate in our study. Yet, the extra stress hardly forced any slip-ups per his top5 Interceptable Pass Rate.

HM: Conner Weigman, Jaxson Dart, Anthony Colandrea, Jalon Daniels

Pressure Cooked: Guys who suck under duress

1. Garrett Greene: West Virginia

Seeing a short king’s stats sour under pressure isn’t uncommon. Though West Virginia’s wonder kid is keen on making plays and pushing the ball down the field, he failed to show he’s a sturdy passer under the gun. Yes, he was a fine sack avoider and nearly notched a 11% Explosive Pass Rate. But he displayed the study’s worst ball placement when pressured. His Depth-Adjusted Accuracy, raw Accuracy, and Adjusted Completion% placed 4th-worst, 2nd-worst, and worst, respectively, in our study. Plus, over 40% of his throws were deemed uncatchable – even when accounting for throwaways. Behind the botched attempts, both his Success and First Down+TD Rates were over 8 percentage points worse than the group average. But Greene wasn’t just dirting throws or launching them out-of-bounds beyond his targets’ reach. He turned in the 5th-highest Interceptable Pass Rate at 16.7%.

2. KJ Jefferson: UCF

Like how Dillon Gabriel made a dramatic about-face for the better, Jefferson went from being cream of the crop to cream of the crap when stressed last fall. Despite owing a top5 ANY/A back-to-back years amongst SECers and being one of PFF’s best graded passers in 2022 under pressure, the Dan Enos Experience saw the former Arkansas QB flustered, frustrated, and on his back for much of the season. Jefferson’s hardest foes especially had little trouble upending the Razorbacks’ offense and frequently foiled blockers. The team surrendered a comical 42% Pressure Rate and 14% Sack Rate across his sample. Outside of his sturdy 65.2% Adjusted Completion that hints there’s still a piece of the old KJ present, his returns were largely laughable. Behind the poor planning, bad blocking, and questionable quarterbacking, Jefferson owns the group’s worst ANY/A (0.4), 1D+TD% (10.5%), and Depth-Adjusted Accuracy (22.1%). After hitting rock bottom in more ways than one, Jefferson will hope to to reascend at Space-U. 

3. DJ Uiagalelei: Florida State

Despite experience dealing with stressful snaps, DJU has yet to show he can handle the heat consistently. Whether it's not stepping into throws, allowing muddy pockets to get the best of him, or a slow internal clock, pressures constantly mute his output. Even though his pass catchers helped his efforts with a low Drop Rate, every one of his pressured metrics firmly fell below the Impact average in 2023. Over half of his throws were uncatchable, and he was over 3x more likely to log an interceptable pass than a gain over 20 yards. Only 30% of his throws were considered on-target. Only four Impacters posted worse clips, and only three recorded a lower ANY/A than his paltry 1.3 mark. Beating up folks outside of his sample helped skew his perception some, but there’s plenty of underlying warts on his profile to fix for him to reach his potential. 

HM: Carson Beck, Thomas Castellanos

Downfield Dimers: Guys with the best downfield ball placement figures

1. Cam Ward: Miami (FL)

Arm strength has never been a question with this quarterback. But concerns around his ability to be a precise downfield passer have clouded his perception since his Incarnate Word days. At Washington State last season, his play callers reigned in his verticality searching for surefire completions. In fact, no Impacter had a lower Downfield Makeup (+10) than his 25.9% clip. But despite the aversion to air it out, Ward was bar-none the most accurate downfield thrower in the group, according to his games against his toughest foes. Of course, it is fair to wonder whether this was due to selection bias – did Ward avoid throws he knew he couldn’t complete for ones with a higher rate of success? It’s debatable. But if avoiding risk is part of the equation, then a 20% Downfield Interceptable Pass Rate screams Ward still has a little bit of chaos in him. Either way, no Impacter can trump Ward’s 56.7% Accuracy, 58.1% Depth Adjusted Accuracy, or 68% Adjusted Completion% largely thanks to his dapper deep balls. With a presumed increase in downfield opportunities in South Florida, he could get a lot of positive attention this fall. 

2. Jaxson Dart: Ole Miss

A master in the midrange, Dart also showed why he’s quickly becoming a hot name this season with his vertical accuracy. When looking at premier placement, he was the only Impacter to crack the group’s top6 in both intermediate (11-19) and deep (20+) Accuracy%. Subsequently, the Rebel’s 52.2% clip on all throws over 10 yards downfield earned the study’s bronze medal. And even though he was a little careless on these throws per a mid Interceptable Pass Rate, his 20.3% Uncatchable Pass Rate, 61.8% Adjusted Completion, and 48.6% Downfield Depth Adjusted Accuracy were all top5-worthy. Now, that’s living up to his last name. 

3. Dillon Gabriel: Oregon

Behind his beautiful moon shots, Gabriel has always held his own as a deep passer. But with moderate size, his vision and capabilities to deliver ideal passes over the middle used to be suspect. Notice the past tense. Last fall, Gabriel turned the corner targeting the heart of defenses; particularly growing as an intermediate passer. Statistically it was night and day. Against his Impact opponents in 2022, he posted a well-below average 39.5% Accuracy% and 47.4% Uncatchable Pass Rate on midrange tries. Those marks improved to 56.4% and 18.2%, respectively. And along with superb deep metrics, only Cam Ward was more prone to on-target throws beyond 10 yard downfield in our study. Though a quick game gasher, Gabriel’s arm certainly has enough juice to propel Oregon’s passing offense to further prominence. 

4. Quinn Ewers: Texas

I could just place the highlight of Ewer’s moonshot score to Xavier Worthy from last year’s Alabama game as testament to his ability to be a dot, but his stats also reflect his high-end arm talent. While placing inside the crop’s top6 in general downfield accuracy, none of his peers were better at throwing catchable passes. Less than 18% of Ewers throws beyond ten yards downfield were wasted. Only Cam Ward topped his 65% Downfield Adjusted Completion%. And though it’s easy to jump to his deep ball as to why his results and process were praiseworthy, his midrange metrics were among the best around – accentuated by his first-place 68% Completion% and top3 Uncatchable Pass Rate. 

5. Carson Beck: Georgia

Across 2023, only the Heisman bested Beck’s Accuracy% and Uncatchable Pass Rate on tries that topped 14 yards downfield within the SEC. That said, he was closer to good than great when referring to his downfield offerings in our study. A fraction off here or there, his process wasn’t as refined as desired. Still, his results were still among the group’s best and he was an obvious inclusion to this list. Along with a top4 Adjusted Completion%, only Quinn Ewers outdid Beck’s mighty 57.7% general Completion% on attempts over 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. Despite less than a third of his deep balls being on-target versus his Impact foes, his midrange passing did much of the heavy lifting. On one of the highest Intermediate Makeups in our study at 28.8%, he logged both a top3 Completion% and Uncatchable Pass Rate on those throws. 

HM: Will Howard, Tyler Van Dyke, Garrett Nussmeier

Vertically Vexed: Guys who struggle to do considerable damage downfield 

1. Riley Leonard: Duke

Leonard is full of moxie, grit, and a number other intangibles. But over the last two seasons as a starter, he’s hardly sizzled as a downfield passer. Detrimental injuries were clear catalysts for his sour numbers this past season – Leonard placed dead last in the group in downfield Uncatchable Pass Rate, general Accuracy%, and Depth Adjusted Accuracy%. Less than 30% were deemed on-target. Ipso facto. Duke’s offense leaned into the short stuff and Leonard’s mobility. His 27.4% Downfield Makeup was among the 6th-lowest. But even before last year, Leonard was fairly dull in this context. In 2022’s Impact study, both his Accuracy% and Uncatchable Pass Rate fell multiple points below the standard. Savvy and exemplary football IQ are great traits to have. But, they quickly become a moot point if you cannot deliver any downfield results. 

2. Cam Rising: Utah

Dating back to his last healthy season, Rising’s downfield metrics were grounded. Since he is a finesse-driven passer dependent on timing, one little gnat can throw off his whole operation. His sample from 2022 produced a bottom5 Downfield Uncatchable Pass Rate among this current crop. Highly centralized to his midrange throws, only one other Impacter sported a worse clip in that area of the field. And while his deep ball was considerably more “catchable”, his precision was poopy. His 15.8% such Accuracy% was our study’s worst figure by almost 2 percentage points. With such sour performance pushing the ball vertically, his general Downfield Accuracy% landed in the same range as his UNC%.
Considering his knee was shredded to smithereens, the chances he’ll emerge from 2024 as a dangerous downfield passer do not look strong. 

3. Thomas Castellanos: Boston College

Though Castellanos has potential to score on any play, his process is all over the place. While his vertical passes travel well and can arrive in a hurry, wonky mechanics begat bad placement figures. Only a quarter of his deep balls were on the money. But Castellanos struggled all over. Almost 42% of his downfield tries against his hardest opponents had no chance of being caught. And behind a boatload of biffs, no Impacter turned in a worse Completion% than his 28.4%. 

HM: Byrum Brown, Graham Mertz

Biscuit Riskers: Guys who don’t mind putting the ball into harm’s way

1. Jayden Maiva: USC

The Go-Go Offenses former gung-ho QB was a clear heat seeking missile. He was the only Impacter to log a double-digit Explosive and Interceptable Pass Rate. But he leads off this list because of his tendency to toss turnover-worthy throws. None of his peers logged a higher INTA% as nearly 11% of this throws could’ve been picked off. He plays hero-ball far too often rather than making the easier (and often smarter) play. Even in structure without pressure, his YOLO operation saw that figure climb to 15%. He’ll threaten Miller Moss for PT; but the odds say Coach Riley will use 2024 to let Maiva marinate and get rid of some of his hard edges. 

2. Cade Klubnik: Clemson

As aforementioned, Klubnik isn’t the most prudent passer. And since Clemson has lacked burners, separators, and a sure-handed receiving room, he’s often obligated to attack tight windows even if his M.O. is horizontal in nature.  If his 29.5% Contested Makeup maintained over the course of a whole season, it would have beaten every SECer except AJ Swann and Payton Thorne since 2022. His game at this point has a negative bang:buck ratio. While generally a sturdy performer when breaking out his pressured, outside the pocket, and downfield attempts, his INTA% no matter the context falls well into the dangerzone.

3. Tyler Van Dyke: Wisconsin

The Dairy Raid’s new QB1 is certainly someone who pressed last season. Against his hardest opponents, TVD trailed by at least a FG on 76% of his attempts, a TD on 56% of his attempts, and two TDs on 39% of his attempts. Down and needing a spark, he regularly risked it. He did snag a top10 Downfield Accuracy%; but over a fifth of his throws beyond 10 yards past the line of scrimmage were interceptable. Only Cade Klubnik was worse in the study. Though his potency and ball placement tease his upside, one cannot give defenders that many opportunities to kill drives. 

4. Kyle McCord: Syracuse

On paper, the former Ohio State signal caller appears to be a fine player. But we know better, don’t we? Yes, all of McCord’s result-based metrics topped the Impact standard. But, nearly a tenth of his passes were interceptable. Now in a new environment with considerably less frightening weapons, there’s less confidence he’ll remain a good aerial producer. After all, nearly 28% of his sample throws targeted a contested/tight window – a very high mark. Maybe that dissipates when not feeling forced to get a generational receiver the ball. But if it doesn’t, his dangerous style could see him hitting the portal yet again next winter. 

5. Taylen Green: Arkansas

Besides Green, no other Impact QB over the last two seasons completed back-to-back slates with a double-digit Explosive Pass and +9% Interceptable Pass Rates. His operation was tweaked this last fall, and he routinely found himself coming off the bench looking to jolt his team. But no matter if he’s the starter or second-stringer, he’ll hunt for key completions and put the ball into precarious spots plenty. This past fall, his boo boos were more centralized on pressured attempts or throws outside the pocket than when clean within structure. So, to ensure Green can avoid being a red flag passer, Sam Pittman’s big boys must fix things in a hurry to maximize his effectiveness.  

HM: Byrum Brown, Preston Stone, Seth Henigan

Caretakers: Guys so risk averse Ned Flanders would find them boring

1. Drew Allar: Penn State

Allar avoided negative plays arguably better than anyone last year. Even his hardest foes had trouble goading him into mistakes. In our study, he rocked a single-digit pressure:sack ratio (P2S), the lowest Dropback Interceptable Pass Rate, and nearly 15% of his attempts targeted either a true screen or a checkdown. Less than 30% traveled beyond ten yards downfield. He very much looked like a first-year starter. Lacking anticipation and verticality, Allar decisively turned down downfield tries for stuff underneath. The safe style created a sturdy passing floor. But no Impacter turned in a lower Explosive Pass Rate on true dropbacks than his 4.5% clip. 

2. Kyron Drones: Virginia Tech

Despite occasionally showing his strong deep ball, Drones overly hunted for surefire completions short. Less than 16% of his sample throws targeted a tight window – a mark all but one SECer topped across 2023. He peppered the flat relentlessly. Play Action Bootlegs and true screens accounted for roughly a fifth of his touches. But even without the direction of scheme elements, he avoided boo boos. On clean dropbacks inside the pocket, he only tossed one interceptable across 43 tries. Only Allar logged less in these spots. 

3. Graham Mertz: Florida

Surprise, Surprise! The SEC’s chief Checkdown Charlie naturally slots into this spot. To reiterate, his paltry 6.5 ADOT represented the study’s bottom and he was that mystery Just Means More player that avoided contests at the highest rate in the league. And bypassing risk for gimmes – even if it meant leaving plays on the field for his offense – he hardly gave opponent’s opportunities for takeaways. Only two of his peers posted a lower Interceptable Pass Rate than his stingy 3.1% clip. Plus, the Gator didn’t log a single turnover-worthy throw when pressured, a feat no other Impacter accomplished vs their toughest foes. 

HM: Brock Vandagriff