The Good, The Bad, The Average: Offensive Concepts Across the SEC
The Good, The Bad, The Average: Offensive Concepts Across the SEC
When evaluating play calls, I like to think of a script akin to a diet. If you eat a lot of fatty food, you’ll likely be fat. If you feature a lot of concepts you’re bad at, you’ll likely have a bad offense. And like different food groups, some concepts are proven to be more nutritious than others. Some are strengthening; some are stable; some are sugary.
To determine “nutritional value”, I combined offensive conceptual data from 2018-2022 and calculated which groups were responsible for the most yards, successful snaps, and overall reps. And once I had a solid mean, clear tiers emerged: SuperFoods, Snack Food, All Part of a Healthy Diet, and Poison. And since folks love top5 lists, that will be our format for each section. So let’s checkout the top5 good, bad, and average concepts based on their ROI the last half-decade.
(For Mobile: tilt device horizontally to optimize stat tables)
The Good: SuperFoods
1. Pop Passes
Backfield: 22 tgt, 15.0 Y/A, 63.6% Success Rate
Tight End: 72 tgt, 7.5 Y/A, 51.5% Success Rate
Both to running backs and to tight ends, pop passes have been the conference’s best bang-for-buck targets the last half-decade. The former buoys the family’s composite metrics finishing atop our edge metrics among pass concepts. But, both varieties boasted a +51% Success Rate.
With the rise in aggressive defenses, this simple sucker play can be executed by any scheme. No different than against a green pee-wee squad, the numbers say even SECers tend to get duped by these deception designs. Often with help of play fakes, these orchestrated dump offs towards vacated space are the conference’s ultimate low-floor/high-ceiling plays. Despite their upside, their manipulative nature has resulted in offenses remaining prudent with their usage. Usage is flat over the last 3 seasons within the SEC.
2. Flow/Leak: 123 att, 9.3 Y/A, 51.2% Success Rate
This west coast curveball is growing in popularity seemingly across all levels of football. But within this conference, play callers are being more conservative in their usage. Still, these patterns have been fantastic at boosting offensive bottomlines. Topping the cumulative average success rate by over 6 points, these delays were among 3/8 concepts -- one of which we’ve already talked about -- with an Edge Y/A +3.0 that also beat the mean Edge Success Rate
Not unlike most things that generate explosives and chunk gains, this concept certainly is helped by crafty tactics. Though there are many ways to draw up these patterns, the most common includes a guard pulling away from the direction of RB play fake (who make or may not continue his path up along the sideline), playside receivers run flood patterns like crosses or posts to influence coveragemen towards the middle of the field, and finally the titular route leaks from the backside of the formation across the run action and then upfield. The RB wheel (aka “Flow”) and the TE delay (aka “Leak”) then create a high-low outside the numbers. But of course as we saw in the national championship, those posts can be targeted if they’re disrespected by defenses.
3. WR Runs
Jet Handoff: 178 att, 7.4 Y/A, 57.3% Success Rate
Reverse: 78 att, 7.4 Y/A, 55.1% Success Rate
End Around: 126 att, 8.8 Y/A, 52.4% Success Rate
This conference has created some unicorn pass catchers in recent years. So it shouldn’t shock getting the ball into these guys’ hands in opportune moments via the ground game also delivered sunny stats. Outside of a couple of “bash” (back away) read options and sneaks, no other run concepts topped a 48% Success Rate besides Jet Handoffs, Reverses, and End Arounds. Though not every-down designs, their results cape for them to receive more tries moving forward.
Jet or Fly Handoffs are certainly rising due to the overall affinity for at-snap within the SEC as of late. The threat of a flash towards the flank means nothing unless that avenue is occasionally driven by a reckless hot rod. And while it’s debatable on whether or not motion has net advantages statistically, these plays hint the tactic can be awfully effective at snatching real estate.
Classic Reverses haven’t disappointed either. Like any misdirection, the initial action is key in triggering the defense into a specific reaction and occupying their attention. With eyeballs locked on the fake, our speedy receiver can race the opposite way to space – with or without a personal protector to grease the result.
End Arounds have started to provide a counterpunch towards zealous fronts keen on stuffing tight+bunch formations. Duo Dive and Inside Zone Split are typically the league’s go-tos from such sets. So naturally, if opponents are drawn inside against condensed alignments, sending a speedster around that mess ought to work fairly well. And, it has. End Arounds were the only rushing look to crack the conference’s top12 in Yards/Attempt.
4. Curl+Seam / Hoss / Comebacks: 1141 att, 8.3 Y/A, 51.7% Success Rate
This catch-all category has been consistently good at generating completions. Though unassuming, Hoss can be a stressful vertical pattern. Against single-high man or Cover4 zone, the outside curl and slot seam/fade can work to find openings against defenses. Additionally, the tension to cap these routes intensifies from empty sets; where often the innermost man will run an option or multi-breaking juke route typically against a linebacker. Tom Brady’s Patriots made a killing on it for years. So it’s not a shock it has helped SECers find success through the air as well.
But the glory doesn’t all belong to Hoss. In StatCat’s motion study penned this summer, we discovered jet motion Deep Hooks was one of the most money plays within the conference since the pandemic. The last two seasons, those specific targets rocked a sensational 76% Success Rate and 14.0 Yards/Target. Safe to say, these tries elevated the concept group as a whole. Still, other varieties have shown value in recent seasons – whether being LSU’s “Doubles” performing comebacks, a solo break-off opposite a three-man combo, or straight attempt at a Deep Hook. Stationary and often in a passer’s line of sight, seam+sideline combos provide down-to-down comfort for offenses. And, the volume at which they’re targeted should stress just how dependable these patterns are based on their returns. Plus, related concepts like Solo Curl and Curl+Dig/Posts were stable as well.
5. Skipper/Thumb: 67 tgt, 12.8 Y/A, 46.3% Success Rate
Functionally, this concept is just a clever way to window-dress and present the patented Sail pattern. And, the stays say the results have rewarded said ingenuity. Often off an outward play fake that will morph into a route hitting the flat, the inside receiver bends towards the middle of the field – just like he would on a typical Cross concept. Likewise, our outside receiver will fight for inside leverage as he works downfield. But then our crosser will bend his route back towards the perimeter to perform a midrange outbreaker as our vertical stressor peaks a post. Dastardly against one and two deep, only one other concept has boasted a preferable Yards/Attempt the last half-decade.
Since floods of all nature are commonplace, designs like Skipper and Thumb (Sarkiasian lingo) are all the more important for offenses to stay a step ahead in the schematic chess match. While its consistency should merit more plays in a vacuum, the noticeable potency it adds to one’s passing game is a slam dunk, argument-ender in the debate on if it should be featured more or not.
Boom or Bust: Let them eat cake
High upside plays that aren’t too consistent – or in other words, deep pass plays
Mills / Double Posts: 257 tgt, 11.6 Y/A, 35.8% Success Rate
Double Post and Post+Dig patterns are inherently aggressive. Aimed at attacking safeties, they can be deadly against 2-deep zones. Generally speaking, the inside route acts as the “decoy”, attempting to draw the attention of a backender and keep him flat footed, or better yet, vacate his zone rallying to cap the inbreaker. And once he’s manipulated, the CB or other coverage defender towards that side of the combo is often screwed. Protecting outside leverage and assuming he has inside help, the deep post can result in some majestic completions.
Only two pass concepts topped its 11.6 Yards/Attempt. But like a number of deep concepts, as you’re about to find out, these designs aren’t too consistent on a per throw basis. Only four other aerial looks begat a worse Success Rate.
Deep Double Moves: 238 tgt, 10.6 Y/A, 33.2% Success Rate
When properly dialed up, Deep Double Moves can be dynamite and lead to instant points. Often set up by short stuff, these multi-breakers clown over-anxious DBs hunting throws. Sluggos, Diggos, Corner-Posts, Forks, HitchnGos require premium anticipation from passers and smoothness from route runners; otherwise, the jig is up. Only a third of these plays have found their mark. However, the concept’s double-digit Y/A reiterates DDMs’ upside. Moreover, the look sports a top20 adjusted opportunity rating.
Over the last two seasons, this concept has produced 18 completions that have netted at least 35 yards. Like most of the deceiption-laded designs in this article, coaches have been gunshy about featuring them too much – less is more kinda thing. While that’s up for debate for others, I tend to agree DDMs need to be used sparingly and saved for certain matchups. Also for what it’s worth, this group’s brother concept Fox (fake screens) was also in the discussion to make this piece with a 8.7 Y/A and 42% Success Rate. Plenty of reward when you risk deceiving your foe it appears.
Vertical Shots: 1340 tgt, 8.4 Y/A, 31.4% Success Rate
Vertical shots are simple downfield patterns leaning on 9-routes. However, despite their big play nature, Solo goes on the perimeter, slot fades, goalline tossups, and the tried and true 989/Divide pattern combined to generate a below-average adjusted opportunity rating. Surely, the higher degree of difficulty of these throws sliced and stifled its figures. Clear bust factor with this lot. Still, this group’s 8.4 Y/A placed inside the SEC’s top15.
With abundant targets, Shots’ have a clear baseline for expectations. Roughly 1/3 will find the mark, likely delivering a dinger in the process. Though other things might be more potent and dependable, these plays still possess boom that can flip the field.
Portland and Yankee Shots: 487 tgt, 11.2 Y/A, 40.2% Success Rate
This family of deep pass patterns are all about trying to make safeties wrong. Rooted in a core idea of incorporating an intermediate crosser, routes like posts, deep double moves, corners, verts, and additional crosses pair to create a particularly taxing tandem. Plus, motion and play action help the whole shebang really pull some over on backenders. Seeing that only 3 other pass concepts topped its 11.2 Y/A (and 4.5 adjusted opportunity rating), it’s a just assumption SEC defenses succumbed plenty to those guises.
As heavy set play fakes have taken over the pro game the last decade, college play callers haven’t been too far behind adopting these tactics to capture their own explosives. Only 8 pass families have experienced more growth showing up on SECers’ scripts the last half decade than Portlands and Yankee Variations.
Dagger: 437 tgt, 9.2 Y/A, 40.5% Success Rate
The Dagger concept is a passing down staple known for whipping 2-deep zones. The seam+dig combo naturally finds a void in the soft spots of those coverages. But despite tending to be disadvantaged by down and distance when deploying this look, offenses have found good value per a top10 Y/A and a top15 adjusted opportunity rating. In addition to the traditional marriage with a shallow from the other side of the formation, SEC offenses have enjoyed “trey” wrinkles from trips that send the innermost man on the bender with the middle route working an option pivot and our outside receiver running the deep dig.
The Bad: Please don’t pick these poisons
Just bad plays. I would recommend they be faded by scripts across the conference.
Knight Inside Zone Read: 32 att, 2.9 Y/A, 37.5% Success Rate
Dual-headed backfields are easy ways to get extra speed on the field and endeavor to add teeth to one’s ground game. However, without a clear passing option to make opponents pay for selling out to stop the run, these sets totally flounder. Averaging under 3 yards/attempt and a sub-38% Success Rate, this concept’s adjusted per opportunity number was a deplorable 1.1 clip. To be honest, a few other “Knight” (2 RB wildcat sets) packages also produced sour stats. But I didn’t feel like writing about them and owning this section. Just know, stop that stuff. It doesn’t work. The SEC has proven to be too athletic defensively.
Bash Toss Counter Read: 63 att, 4.5 Y/A, 34.9% Success Rate
Though “bash” looks are among the most consistent rush concepts the last half-decade, this wrinkle has been a clear stain on the brand. Once donned “Peanut Butter” by former Tennessee head man Jeremy Pruitt, the back is sent away from a pair of pullers towards the perimeter as the QB becomes the primary ball carrier. Despite its busy and nifty operation, defenses have had little trouble keying in on this gap read option.
China Variations: 405 tgt, 4.8 Y/A, 38.8% Success Rate
These plays are considered somewhat effective in crunched spots like the low red zone or late down short yardage snaps. But based on their targets within the SEC, the present to be among the least reliable concepts. Rooted in a vertical route clearing out room for a quick inbreaker to find an alley, they just don’t work as well as sister concepts Rubs or Smashes. The most popular variety from trips (In - In -Corner) compliments the Levels concept nicely. But again, the counterpunches tend to get parried and neutralized.
True Screens: 2,039 tgt, 5.8 Y/A, 38.2% Success Rate
Screens traditionally have been decent plays allowing playmakers to do their thing. But within the SEC since 2018, they’ve largely disappointed. Sure, some schemes save them for behind the chains situations that set them up for failure more often than not. But only Utah Tap Passes and China Variations turned in a stinkier adjusted opportunity rating than the family’s 2.2 figure. Generally speaking, yards are hard enough to come by. Throwing behind the line and inviting TFLs, obviously, has outweighed the slight chance a back or flanker can bust a big one. If you want to get your dude the ball, at least send him into positive territory and raise your floor, yanno? Sadly, their usage has been on the rise.
Split Counter: 118 att, 4.9 Y/A, 42.4% Success Rate
On the blackboard and in theory, I think this play is cerebral and next-level. Speaking of, a number of pro offenses have found success sprinkling in this misdirection. That said, this conference has undeniably struggled to execute the Split Counter. Playing off split flow action where the O-line all works the same way on its normal zone path but an off-set TE/FB fires against the grain to create a hard edge, this design instead asks the former to seal and the latter to scoop. Inherently wonky, its hit rate is just too untrustworthy. But since Inside Zone Split remains a healthy run look in this conference, coordinators will remain interested in this misdirection. After all, this concept is among the SEC’s top15 fastest growing looks.
The Average: All part of a well-balanced diet
Concepts that have been steady and nonvolatile. Fine but nothing special. Bang-average plays
Smash Variations: 1,178 tgt, 6.2 Y/A, 45.0% Success Rate
Smashes are some of the oldest pass plays in the playbook. The traditional form of this two-man combo consists of a hitch and a corner. Modern offenses have favored inverted the two with the outside man performing a “c” or circus corner with the inside man stressing the flat. Within the SEC when that wrinkle isn’t mirrored on both sides of the formation, “Corners” is often paired with Cross, Dagger, Drive, and Levels. But no matter the variety, Smashes have been mid. There’s no major secret to stopping them. And since they’ve been around for about a century, miles of tape exists with real-life examples on how to game the family. Still, offenses will keep featuring them due to their simplicity, versatility, and moderate consistency.
Rub Variations: 1,317 tgt, 6.2 Y/A, 44.9% Success Rate
One of this family’s core subconcepts, Mesh, certainly drives the discussion around Rubs. Moreover, the “Kelly” or Rail variety has become a staple on late downs across the sport. Muddying up techniques with intersecting shallow crossers can help offset talent disadvantages and create cushion for pass catchers to do work. Plus, it presents a relatively easy throw for QBs. Pick plays and line of scrimmage jostling do get play within this conference, but neither of them were the most pass-happy offense’s top play the last 3 seasons. Man coverage can be a real buzzkill if coveragmen are bigger, stronger, faster. And while it can falter, this group presents a decent response to those defenses. Considering Mesh plays’ high 3rd Down makeup, Rub Variations near-45% Success Rate is commendable.
IZ Triple Option: 106 att, 6.4 Y/A, 44.2% Success Rate
Dive, keep, pitch. I’m sure the Gridiron Gods are smiling down seeing this archaic design has breathed in new life (again). Though the flexbone is no longer viable in the SEC, offenses have dabbled with Triple Option looks from spread formations. Either from two-back sets or aided by at-snap motion, the Inside Zone variety has been the conference’s most-featured and steady. Playing off the most popular concept group, Inside Zone Reads, the extra run threat saw this look average over a yard more per attempt. However, on an adjusted opportunity rating, this look was as middle-of-the-road as you can get.
RPO Outlet Swing Screen: 128 tgt, 6.1 Y/A, 45.3% Success Rate
Swing screens are extensions of the run game. More or less, they are glorified tosses that can help pad passing stats. But when tagged on modern day triple options – RPOs – they’ve been serviceable helping designs test both sides of the formation. Orbit and RB Flair motion are commonly paired with root run concepts for gravity sake. And knowing ordinary triple options are pretty average, seeing a risk averse outlet with moderate numbers tracks. Among the 5 major RPO ‘Outlets’ in StatCat charting (curl/hitch, tunnel, bubble, slide/flat, and swing), this turned in the lowest Success Rate.
Trail/Follow: 356 tgt, 6.0 Y/A, 43.5% Success Rate
Personally, I enjoy trails and “bunch choice” patterns. They pick on linebackers with speed and don’t require next-level arm talent to TCOB. The common two variations are known by “Dangle” and “Arches” in StatCat lingo. Dangle – Drive+Angle – paints drag, dig, angle outside-in. Arches swaps the dig for a corner route. Follow is more of a two-man operation where the inside man runs a drag while the outside man “follows” him inward with a Dig. Though a humble concept overall, Trail/Follow has been one of the SEC’s best looks when utilizing pre-snap motion over the last 2 seasons. In fact, only 4 other qualifying concepts topped its 54% Success Rate. But thanks to poor reps when static or trying to trigger foes with at-snap eye candy, the overall results since 2018 were squarely even-steven.