Impact QB Scouting Report: Caleb Williams, USC
Impact QB Scouting Report: Caleb Williams
Everyone loves quarterback talk. Since it's the most important position in the sport and a passer's ability often can be the difference between a victory or defeat, extra weight is put into analyzing these fellows. While most fans are content with volume stats like completions, yards, and touchdowns scored, the archaic metrics do little to tell the story of how a passer actually operates. What if a passer leaned more on screens or lived on the wild side by pressing downfield more often or benefited from being a game manager?
To cut through the clutter and actually provide some illuminating content this time of year, I decided to chart all 30 of On3’s top Impact QBs against their most challenging defensive opponents to get a better understanding of how the group functions. Instead of letting matchups against Poop State infiltrate our passers’ profiles, focusing on quality opponents present much firmer samples and strong indications of how this lot projects to the next level. Using ESPN’s SP+ Ratings and Expected Points Added/pass to set our benchmarks, each QB was charted against a 5-6 game sample. Some guys still had much easier slates compared to their peers. Nonetheless, this methodology is very helpful in exposing one’s true colors.
In this piece, USC's Caleb Williams will be the subject. We’ll breakout his profile overall, throwing downfield, working under pressure, surviving outside the pocket, targeting tight windows, operating the dropback game (along with play action), and their “passing floor'' based on how he performed in structure without adversity or schematic elements.
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| Height | Weight | Passing Yards | Pass TDs | INTs | ESPN QBR |
| 6'4 | 220 | 4,321 | 38 | 7 | 82.4 |
The Skinny:
The best non-professional football player in the world. Can deliver darts on demand. A smooth operator and impressive improsiver. One of the most impactful players outside the pocket in recent years. Improvement is needed in overall consistency and ability to attack tight windows.
The Fat: The reigning Heisman has been a walking highlight his first two seasons playing college football. Williams is quite comfortable in the role as playmaker as well as field general. And as sacrilegious as it is to compare a youngster to the great St. Mahomes, Williams possesses a blessed skillset with divine natural gifts. In his sample, he flaunted a mighty 57-yard bomb (beyond the line of scrimmage) showcasing his vertical arm talent. Moreover, he served up plenty of downfield dimes. While the large majority of QBs require extra ‘umph’ or pepper when passing outside their base, that is not the case with Williams. His fastball is electric, and his throws on the move are akin to Zeus zapping a bolt of lighting. His attempts come out quick, arrive on time, and are generally placed where defenders cannot touch them.
Williams lives up to the cliched calm, cool, collected signal caller despite occasional stress. He isn’t immune to adversity just because he benefits from playing for one of the best offensive minds. Only three other Impact QBs experienced a worse Pressure Rate on true dropbacks in their sample than his 36.3% clip. Yet, muddy pockets and extending plays do not generate any noticeable effect on his performance. He can float and drift outside the pocket both by design or otherwise; but he demands defenders’ attention regardless of where he is on the field. Plus, Williams’ gravity helps his targets come more open while being a mobile maestro. He has a yeoman’s lower body that’s capable of dragging bulk, bursting to open space, or busting out of would-be takedowns. In his sample that consisted of 6 top35 defenses in ESPN’s SP+, he erased 20 sacks and accumulated 21 total broken tackles. Oh and again, his strength enables him to deliver eye-popping lasers from an array of angles.
While the arm talent is clearly there, Williams certainly could shore up his down-to-down precision excluding screen/RPO tries. Again while he isn’t reckless with his placement, The Trojan was practically average against the group in terms of dropback Accuracy% and Uncatchable%. This is not an area where you want your passer to be just okay. It’s not a red flag per se, but it’s definitely something worth monitoring this fall while he puts up insane numbers. Strangely, contested/tight window attempts appear to be one of the largest culprits to his relatively sour stats; particularly along the left sideline.
Largest Strength: Godly arm talent, Creativity
The Stats: color-coded to reflect percentile standing within impact class (green = great, white = mid, red = bad)
Spray:
Overall:
Right off, Williams’ stats check a lot of boxes. His four key placement stats and four key result stats all finished above the group average. And considering a drop or a sack occurred on every sixth attempt on average, that’s a pretty laudable accomplishment. But, notice the high scheme usage. Against his hardest foes, over half of Williams’ throws came off dropback play action, a screen, or RPO design. With Lincoln Riley orchestrating, you bet Williams’ bottomline was bolstered as a result.
The creative and conventional generally presented him with open targets, and he responded with the group’s 3rd-best Accuracy%. More on-target balls naturally led to more completions; and throwing to men in space naturally led to more big gainers. Only two other Impact QBs topped his 8.7 ANY/A. But Williams was the only passer to place inside the group’s top8 in both ADOT and Interceptable%, emphasizing his excellent ROI.
Downfield:
As you’d like to see from a passer with a vertical skillset, Williams wasn’t shy pressing the ball downfield. Other than former-Clawfense QB Sam Hartman, his 19.2% Deep Pass Rate was a group-high. Moreover, he came through with an admirable such Accuracy% that was 8 points over the Impact average. That said, Williams was all-or-nothing on these attempts. He was just as likely to be perfect as deliver an uncatchable dud against the meat of his schedule.
The Trojan’s figures remained firm on midrange tries as well. Over half were accurate and his such Uncatchable% earned the group’s silver medal. Behind sturdy downfield stats, Williams’ 45.9% Accuracy% on sample attempts beyond ten yards downfield made the Impact top8. But thanks to the enhanced degree of difficulty on a large portion of these throws, he failed to crack the top10 in downfield Depth Adjusted Accuracy%, Interceptable%, and Adjusted Completion%. Aim big, miss big.
Pressured:
Williams’ next-level traits shine through when he’s under the gun. And we don’t have to worry about any sample size bias to lead us astray. Remaining vertical ala his group-high 15.9 ADOT, he boasts the 3rd-best Uncatchable%. This happenstats – see what I did there – allowed him to nab the 4th-best Depth Adjusted Accuracy% and 2nd-best ANY/A when pressured. Both of those stats would’ve been good enough to crack the Impact group’s top half overall. His aggression did result in a below-average Interceptable%. But seeing his Explosive Pass% is tops, the risk-reward seems optimal; especially since Williams’ INTA is his only subpar passing stat in this category.
Backyard ball did begat takedowns behind the line. Again his Pressure% on pure dropbacks was one of the highest in this exercise. But considering the volume of havoc he faced, Williams impressed with a middle-of-the-road Pressure:Sack Ratio and dropback Sack Rate.
Outside the Pocket:
This was alluded to earlier, but Williams skills operating outside of structure are phenomenal. According to Stats Bomb, he was one of the few QBs this past season to have a higher Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE) outside the pocket than inside. Focusing on our group study, no other Power-5er bested his 11.2 Y/A, 42.6% First Down+TD Rate, or 23.4% Explosive Pass Rate. His savvy working launch angles and finding windows is further illustrated by the group’s 5th-best Uncatchable Pass Rate against the steepest ADOT. That level of play – especially against one’s premier foes – deserves immense acclaim. No doubt, pro scouts continue to drool over his potential based on his performance outside the pocket whether via designed rollouts, pressured flushes, or clean extensions.
Contested/Tight Windows:
As aforementioned, targeting tight windows remains to be a hangup on Williams’ profile. Sure, he still saw a fair share of drops. But, he comfortably fell into the group’s lower quadrant in Defender Breakup%. Though typically a passer who thrives attacking grass and leading his man away from coveragemen, a man of his talents is undeniably susceptible to arm hubris on occasion. Unfortunately, the needle is far from being thread. No other Impact QB turned in a worse Adjusted Completion%, Success Rate, or First Down+TD Rate. Over half of these attempts were either uncatchable or interceptable. Williams’ ability to dial up fastballs is impressive. But control remains a big issue.
Many of these tries targeted outside the numbers. Throws along the left sideline produced a pathetic 1/11 clip. His luck throwing deep didn’t fare much better after going 2/9. While a wonky sample, this articulates a potential shortcoming in being able to throw receivers open despite his premier gifts. That said, the tools are present for an immediate turnaround.
Dropback:
Without screens and RPOs to pad his placement figures, Williams was a much more inconsistent passer. Certainly maintaining a downfield-oriented style of play made throws more challenging on average, but his dropback 1D+TD Rate, Adjusted Completion%, and Depth Adjusted Accuracy% all finished under standards – a key result stat, a QB-friendly stat, and a weighted precision score saying he’s not elite in this sense. Drops were a noticeable setback. But, even process metrics like raw Accuracy% and Uncatchable% were mediocre.
Some concerns exist. But Williams’ flaws are comparatively minor compared to the rest of the class’s professional offerings in this context. The byproduct of USC’s dropback game should alleviate major grumbles; assuming his receivers are more sure-handed. After all, despite the butterfingers, Williams’ Explosive Pass% almost doubles his Interceptable%. Plus, his 8.4 ANY/A is top8-worthy.
Dropback Play Action:
Though play action is often thought of as a cheat code for modern offenses, there is no such thing as a sure thing on the gridiron. Williams struggled to unlock many worthwhile completions against his hardest foes finishing below the group average across the board, which is honestly alarming. Wouldn’t you expect the Heisman playing in an inspired scheme to be able to uncork dingers at will manipulating backenders? But like his dropback numbers in general, drops decimated his bottomline. But while those can answer for the poor result metrics, Williams cannot dodge questions about his worrisome placement stats. For instance, his raw Accuracy% dips over a dozen points on dropbacks with and without the tactic.
“Floor” Passing:
When stripping away the schemey guises, pressured passes, and plays outside the pocket, Williams’ profile loses juice. He might be an exception to the rule; in that his enhanced play in volatile spots can buoy his overall performance rather than showings in sturdy environments. But it’s never a good look to go from elite to ehh amongst peers in this context. And unlike other breakouts, he couldn’t blame drops for his bad bottomline. Despite seeing his verticality shrink, his raw Accuracy%, Success Rate, and ANY/A were just ordinary. Additionally, he fell inside the group’s bottom10 in First Down+TD Rate and Explosive Pass%. The biggest nut kick of them all, however, is the Heisman rocking the group’s worst Depth Adjusted Accuracy%.
Are these findings great for his outlook? No. Are these findings dealbreakers? No. But still recognizing the aspects Williams needs to work on is paramount. Though the NFL is molding its offenses to suit unorthodox QBs more than ever, the pros still expect competent dropback passing. Williams must become more consistent without the aid of deception tactics or pulling defenders out of position playing backyard ball.