The Skinny: One of the best downfield throwers around. Robustly accurate within structure. Savvy use of throwing speeds with impressive vertical drive capabilities. Obstructed pass lanes and pressure give him problems; but with more PT he should hit his high ceiling, high floor potential

The Fat: Labeling Maye as just a pocket passer could easily be misconstrued. He is by no means a statue or one-dimensional. UNC regularly featured him on keepers and draws to the point he almost amassed 900 yards on the ground. But in today’s age of aliens, dual threats, and toosly passers, he’s more of a throwback option who’s best dissecting defenses within structure. And since he plays a style folks have seen work before, there’s more solace he’ll succeed at the next level. After all, accuracy matters; and the Tar Heel hurler is arguably college football’s best in that department. Especially when clean, Maye shines bright. If you let him, he’ll pepper you underneath or paint the sideline. Though his verticality ebbed and flowed throughout his debut season, he consistently hit targets regardless of downfield depth. His release is snappy and his pre-snap processing appears to be beyond his years. That said, he still showed plenty of room to grow scanning the field. He overlooks receivers and bust his progression on occasion; especially when his vision suffers. Normal for most young guns, sure; but that said, it’s not much of an issue – just something for Maye to work on. 

Maye understands positioning and timing of combos remarkably well; and that trait bleeds over into his astute ball placement. And while his ace accuracy speaks volumes, the Carolinian is quite polished at delivering passes at various speeds. Delivering a fiery fastball into a tight window is one thing. But finessefully flinging a pass over three defenders and ahead of two others in stride to a crossing target is a whole other ballgame. But to reiterate, when defenders forced him off his base, he was more muted; particularly outside the pocket. Pressure is kryptonite to many QBs. Maye was no exception. Though he admirably kept the ball out of danger, his ball placement figures plummeted. And while regression is expected in this context, the degree to which his stats soured is maddening. In turn, it opens the door for dissenters to attack him with one-hit wonder claims. 

Again, the pocket passer moniker doesn’t quite encapsulate Maye’s game as it inherently undersells his athleticism. Despite lackluster success outside of structure or on the move, he was a reasonable sack eraser to the tune of a 2.3/game average versus the meat of his schedule. Plus, former OC Phil Longo wasn’t reluctant to feature him in the run game. Maye totaled 33 designed runs in his 6 game sample. However, he didn’t break a single tackle on one of those attempts and he was limited to a modest 4.0 Y/A. Maye can provide slight juice to UNC’s ground game and play some backyard ball, but he’s unequivocally his best self dishing dimes from the pocket. Moving forward, perhaps he’ll be utilized less as a rusher – allowing him to focus on his strengths, not wear out his legs, and increase his touch efficiency. Maye will still need to be mobile to reach his upside. His passing prowess, however, clearly drives his brand. 

Largest Strength: Premier Downfield Accuracy 

Largest Area of Opportunity: Performance Outside the Pocket and vs Pressure 

The Stats: color-coded to reflect percentile standing within impact class (green = great, white = mid, red = bad)

Spray:

Overall: 

Maye’s real deal precision is reflected by his premier 55.3% Depth Adjusted Accuracy%. Outright, it cracked the group’s top4. However unlike the Tar Heel, the rest of his peers in that threshold all had subpar ADOTs that were at least 1.5 yards under his own figure. Plus, he was the only Impact QB to own a top4 Interceptable% on an above average ADOT. But the rest of his placement stats draw side eyes due to their relative mediocrity for someone with his reputation. Over a fifth of his tries were uncatchable. 

While pretty solid for a first-year, Maye’s results hardly pop off the screen. Less than half of his attempts found success and his First Down+TD Rate was pedestrian. But the biggest boo boo was his bottom6 Explosive Pass%, which as you can imagine dinged his sample’s overall 7.1 Y/A. 

Downfield:

Are you ready for an elevator pitch on Maye’s passing upside? No other Impact QB was more accurate on throws over ten yards downfield against their hardest opponents. In fact, he was the only passer on-target on at least half of both his deep and midrange throws. In one of the ultimate situational separators, Maye showed why he’s viewed as a draft darling. Sure, you can point to so-so Uncatchable% in these areas of the field. But in terms of being pinpoint, none were better. Plus, Maye’s pot sweetens by his top3 Interceptable% and Adjusted Completion%. 

Despite Maye’s proficiency finding downfield targets, UNC’s offense didn’t aim to take the top off every opponent. Following a core Air Raid commandment to attack open and available spaces, sometimes sticks and slants were favored and featured more than shots and other aggressive patterns. Likewise, foes seemed satisfied to make him earn his gold in this manner as the season progressed. When the time is right however, it’s difficult to come across a more dependable QB to throw a strike. 

Pressured: 

Maye showed his age under the gun. Throwaway or no, over half of his pressured throws were deemed uncatchable. With so many misfires, his raw 28.8% Accuracy% speaks for itself. Ultimately, that metric placed inside the group’s bottom4. His quick release becomes moot if his targets have not shot at a catch. Still, he wasn’t reckless or playing YOLO ball in these spots. And honestly, that is undeniably encouraging since defenses often bank on pressures to aid in creating interceptions. 

The good news is that pressured stats are entirely volatile and can change year-year, month-to-month, and game-to-game. So while these plays remain a big ole stain on Maye’s profile, this shortcoming is fixable. And with more reps, the natural trajectory implies he will get better. But right now, opponents have a slight angle on him when they can disrupt his drop. 

Outside the Pocket:

The 6’4 Maye moves pretty smoothly and looks comfortable with the ball in his hands. He possesses the desirable frame and base needed to overcome potential hurdles when things break down, but consistently disappointed. Captain Obvious wanted me to chime in with the fact, many of these attempts were tied into his pressured snaps. Still, posting a bottom2 Accuracy% and bottom4 Uncatchable% illustrates how ineffective he was in this regard. Erasing sacks is admirable, but if a passer cannot finish the play with a downfield completion, his ceiling simply suffers as a result. Like his pressured attempts, I don’t want to hark on this too much. Just be aware of the progress Maye needs to make. 

Contested/Tight Windows: 

Maye’s acumen on how to deliver passes in a variety of ways often is displayed when testing tight windows. His utility belt full of different launch angles, arrival spots, and throw speeds comes in handy when trying a money ball. Even after accounting for a drop on a fifth of his tries, Maye presents as a reassuring option on contested targets. His ANY/A is top4-worthy and all of his ball placement metrics beat the group average. Other than his Interceptable%, they all were 8th or better amongst the Impact QBs. Plus, over a third of them found situational success. 

Dropback:

Since roughly 80% of Maye’s sample consisted of pure dropback passes, his returns generally mirror his overall figures. In short, the stats say Maye is just an okay dropback passer. He performed strong in Depth Adjusted Accuracy and continued to keep the ball away from defenders. But, he logged a mellow Accuracy%, Uncatchable%, ANY/A, and First Down+TD Rate topped by a single-digit Explosive Pass%. The latter is a byproduct of UNC’s fancy to work underneath in this context, which resulted in Maye’s relatively low ADOT.  

Maye has a terrific foundation from which to build upon thanks to his accuracy. And if it’s not obvious, there’s plenty of evidence against his weaker opponents he is sound in this department. But if the standard is QB1, you’d like to see better numbers. Unlike others, he didn’t suffer from major drops or a backbreaking amount of pressure – but as mentioned earlier – the latter appears to be a stresspoint for Maye. 

Dropback Play Action:

Play action, unfortunately, didn’t help the Tar Heel’s dropback game. While considered a tactic that often tilts favorable outcomes towards offenses, Maye finished below the group average in every single result metric. To that point, he had the 2nd-worst Success Rate. Even as a passer who generally prevents defenders from getting their mitts on his throws, he turned in a subpar Interceptable%. His performance wasn’t entirely dismissible. The three remaining placement figures were at least okay; signifying Maye was possibly a little unlucky when it came to using play action. Since this is a schemey element, TBD on how much UNC uses it moving forward. 

“Floor” Passing:

Though Maye will need to expand his game to better his chances at succeeding at the next level, one cannot deny Maye has an attic-level floor. When not altered by pressure, forced outside the pocket, or asked to use scheme elements, few collegiate passers were as dependable as the Tar Heel. In these conditions, Maye simply dealt. He broke the huddle, processed the openings, and slung on-target strikes over and over again. He was the only Impact QB to crack the top4 in Success Rate, Accuracy%, Depth Adjusted Accuracy%, and Interceptable%. No other Power5 passer trumped his 8.2% Uncatchable% or 85.4% Adjusted Completion%. No doubt, UNC’s somewhat risk averse style helped him pad his placement stats. Aiming short undercut his explosiveness. But his consistency fueled an above-average ANY/A despite coping with the group’s 3rd-highest Drop Rate – a backbreaking 15.3% clip. 

Stylistically – at least from the stats’ perspective – Maye appears to be the inverse-Williams. The Trojan has a clear edge outside of structure and when facing pressure. But, Maye has the clear edge clean inside the pocket and when asked to operate conventional dropback designs. Each has their own flaws with considerable ceilings. But presently, the metrics side with Maye as the bet with the sturdier floor ahead of this fall.