The Skinny:

A prolific lefty keen on carving up short to intermediate areas of the field. Tight, compact, and lightning release to beat pressures. Somewhat juicy arm but not accurate deep or vs tight coverage. Low throwing elbow causes line-trajectories on passes, which hurts top end precision

The Fat: 

After a turbulent time in Bloomington, Penix bet on himself (and his old playcaller) taking his talents to Seattle. Blessed with well-maintained pockets, a cavalcade of pass catchers, and an opposing schedule primarily made of tissue paper, his play last year was money. Washington had the top passing offense in terms of EPA/attempt, and Penix led the nation in passing yards/game with the 3rd-most First Down+TDs. There’s little question he fits the traditional pocket passer archetype. In his sample, he logged only four designed runs and a bottom5 makeup of throws outside of structure. But despite being rather one-dimensional, he was resoundingly one of the game’s best at avoiding sacks. Now, he only outright erased 6 takedowns in our study. However thanks to his quick release, no collegiate QB had a preferable Pressure:Sack% than his 3.2% clip when including all games, per Pro Football Focus. Additionally, Washington’s scheme honed in on manageable throws without dedicating a lot of usage to targets behind the line of scrimmage. Though Penix’s verticality was only so-so, the Huskies marched behind ample underneath strikes. Over half of his attempts against his hardest foes found success – a deed only one other Impact Power5-er accomplished. That said, focusing on surethings instead of shots skewed his explosiveness downward. And among the group, Penix’s 7.7 ANY/A failed to crack the top10.

Generally speaking, his efficiencies were good, not great; even with a relatively sound Drop Rate. Though the offense did a terrific job setting him up for success more often than not, Penix’s bottomline ultimately remained mellow due to his errancy. Watching his film, it doesn’t take the viewer long to notice that he favors throwing passes on a line with not much underneath air. On-target, his highs totally delight. Donut hole dimes should be cherished regardless of the situation. But, his misses are ugly and leave too many yards on the field. The primary culprit is his low elbow. Try it at home. Delivering touch passes or bucket throws with such a low release is utterly challenging and needlessly increases Penix’s degree of difficulty. This is all the more apparent when looking at his downfield tries as his 41.9% Depth Adjusted Accuracy% fell into the group’s bottom5. On tries over ten yards downfield, the Husky produced an unsettling 36.6% Uncatchable%. Though his inaccuracy is managed well by the scheme’s modus operandi within structure, Penix’s iffy ball placement worsens when moved off his base by opponents, which lowers both his floor and ceiling. 

For the most part, he is aware of his limitations as a passer. He tends to avoid backbreakers and propels his offense forward, methodically at times. Plus, the scheme does a great job playing to his strengths. But, the bottomline line is that this fireballer isn’t as incendiary as you’d like him to be. There were simply too few next-level throws against the meat of his schedule. Though undeniably impactful, Penix appears to be more of a product of his environment rather than a bonafide passing prospect. Additionally, he only faced ONE top70 pass defense in EPA/attempt last fall. Unless his downfield precision shores up, skeptics will continue to dismiss him no matter how voluminous his numbers are. 

Largest Strength: Dropback Decision-Making 

Largest Area of Opportunity: Performance outside pocket and vs pressure 

The Stats: color-coded to reflect percentile standing within impact class (green = great, white = mid, red = bad)

Spray:

Overall: 

Penix might not have been spoonfed as many screens or RPOs as his peers, but nearly a fifth of his sample dropbacks came out of an empty formation. These pass-heavy sets might infer aggressiveness, but they often house horizontal designs meant to stress opponents sideline-to-sideline short. Meaning, the scheme found him other ways to give him plenty of gimme completions. His targets from empty were over 1.5 yards shorter on average than his overall tries. And, his Depth Adjusted Accuracy% shot up from 41.9% to 54.9%.

Penix’s cumulative 3.9 TD:INT ratio fell outside the top30 nationally last year. But, his sample’s 5.9% Interceptable Rate is well under the danger zone. And considering no other Impact Power5-er’s profile logged a preferable Sack Rate to his 1.4% clip, negating losses is a valuable, yet overlooked skill of his. But to reiterate, the fear is he leaves too many plays on the field due to unsatisfactory accuracy. At the end of the day, he’s got to throw more catchable attempts if he’s set to make his living as a slinger within structure. 

Downfield:

Arm strength isn’t a major concern with Penix. Certainly more of a crafty passer when it comes to completing dingers, he did clock a couple of 50+ yard launches against his hardest opponents. Due to his linedrive aesthetic, however, his receivers are able to track his passes far too infrequently. Only four other Impact QB posted a worse Accuracy% on throws over ten yards downfield than his 36.6%, which equals his such Uncatchable%. Deep, he was more likely to biff a bomb than toss an on-target try. But thanks to quality wideouts, his downfield results were much closer to the group mean than his process metrics. 

On a rate basis, Washington didn’t show much favor sending too many patterns downfield. But on a volume basis, Penix logged the group’s most such attempts. So there won’t be a need for any sample size concerns. On the flip side, however, his brand as a mid thrower in this context further hints of the Husky’s capped ceiling. 

Pressured:

As aforementioned, his best weapon against pressure is his processing power and quick release. When opponents can make him hold the ball an extra beat or get under his skin, of course, his advantage diminishes. And, sadly his hardest foes accomplished that plenty. Penix had 26 pressured attempts with a time to throw over 3-seconds. Only five SECers last year had more…when including all games. The 6’4 Penix struggled mightily with his precision off his base. He did hang tough on a number of occasions under the gun inside the pocket, especially on attempts when he was searching for a significant completion – his pressured 16.9 ADOT was the group-high. But once he broke rank, he became completely toothless. All in all, his stats stunk. He placed inside the group’s bottom4 in Adjusted Completion%, Uncatchable%, and Depth Adjusted Accuracy%. On a per throw basis, no other Impact QB was worse. But again thanks to his ability to avoid takedowns, and 4 downfield tuddys, his ANY/A came out smelling relatively okay. 

Outside the Pocket:

When exposed in space, Penix’s ball placement metrics were downright putrid. Only a quarter of his throws were on target. So seeing that he finished bottom3 among Impact QBs in Y/A, Success Rate, and First Down+TD Rate accentuates how detrimental these snaps are to his profile. And while Penix is generally trusty on where he goes with the ball, he was much more careless in these spots. He was as likely to toss a turnover-worthy pass as a key completion. Only KJ Jefferson recorded a worse Interceptable%. None of this should come as a major surprise on account of his flimsy mechanics. As laid out, throwing accurately is tough enough as is with no adversity with a low elbow/release point. The ante definitely gets upped when on the move – with or without a defender chasing you down. 

Contested/Tight Window: 

Though Penix often had to press as a Hoosier, Penix showed decent prudence when it came to testing tight windows last year against his hardest foes. In fact, only Cam Ward had a lower makeup of throws dedicated to contested targets in our study than the Husky’s 17.7% clip. But it bears noting a third of these throws came when pressured – one of the higher clips among the Impact QBs.

Our guy did a respectable job keeping the ball away from defenders ala an above-average Interceptable% and Defender Breakup%. But, the fastballer missed the strike zone far too often. Almost a third of these attempts were uncatchable and less than a seventh resulted in either a conversion or score. His lowly 1.4 ANY/A fell into the group’s bottom6. Captain Obvious is probably at home asking himself, “What’s the point of having a rifle that sprays like a shotgun?” 

Dropback:

Only Air Raider Will Rogers logged more pure dropback throws over his sample than Penix. Since using him in this manner was Washington’s preference, his returns in this context overly resemble his overall stats. You’d like to see stronger First Down+TD Rate and ANY/A, but Penix’s down-to-down dependability is a strong attribute despite the placid placement stats. He found success on over half of his attempts, had moderate catchability without too many turnover-worthy throws, and lukewarm potency. Anchored by his attempts from empty sets, his ADOT was on the low side. But vexingly, he failed to see needed gains in the accuracy department. 

On paper, Penix just fails to truly excite. And, the dropback game is where you’d like to see a statuesque slinger like himself thrive. To reiterate, his decision-making is safe and solid. But since his number of key completions on a per throw basis is more normal than noteworthy, he’s a candidate to lose steam if his production slows down.

Dropback Play Action:

Though not really an explosive passer in our study, play action boosted Penix’s bottomline. None of his peers had a higher ratio of explosives:interceptables. Of the 22 dropback big gainers against his hardest opponents, half used a true play fake. Nearly a quarter of these throws went for at least 20 yards. Despite his ball placement figures remaining middle-of-the-road, only three other Impact QBs topped is 13.3 ANY/A. Seeing that figure practically double in this context should scream how muted he was without play fakes.

“Floor” Passing:

Penix’s passing floor is pretty good. All of his ball placement metrics improve and he sits inside the group’s top3 in Success Rate and Adjusted Completion%. As insinuated earlier, Washington liked to stress opponents short on the majority of its early downs snaps. And that is reflected by his bottom5 ADOT. Following suit with his other findings, aiming small produced impotent numbers. Both his Yards/Attempt and ANY/A were bang average. Plus, his meager 6.1% Explosive Pass% placed inside the bottom3. 

Penix is largely his best self when asked to play point guard with no present adversity. And, his environment typically allows him those conditions. Still, you can only get so far as a passer relying on your receivers to do the heavy lifting. Many folks will be rooting for Penix to continue to grow in confidence and consistency so that he can escape the label as a compiler. Completing more downfield opportunities, fixing his flawed mechanics on the move, and firming his resolve against pressure will go a long way to not only do just that but to also thrust him into the first round discussion.