The Skinny:

A big, mighty, vertical-minded QB with demigod arm strength. One of the position's highest ceilings that is further elevated by his aggressive scheme. Displays inconsistent mechanics which mutes his accuracy, consistency and potency. Fantastic flashes but still a work in progress

The Fat:

Milton is one of the most intriguing players ahead of this fall. Despite previous errancy and untrustworthy quarterbacking, his undeniable talents continue to tantalize on ‘what could be”. His recent showings indicate things might have finally clicked for him. Still, some of his past bugaboos pop up to dent his bottomline and allow dissenters to object to his apparent metamorphosis. But one thing is unequivocal, Tennessee’s offense will facilitate his role, reads, and operation for both him to be his best self and the Vols’ upward trajectory to continue. Like his predecessor, Milton will be fed ample outlet screens and dump offs to space short or behind the line of scrimmage with an abundance of vertical shots. While there is value in the midrange game, Josh Heupel prefers either taking the sure thing or going all in with little in-between. 

This exercise is dealing with a truncated sample compared to other Impact QBs, but Milton’s numbers echo his incredible upside. His 13.6 ANY/A was practically 3 yards better than anyone else in the SEC. FYI, the next man in line was Hendon Hooker. And signs of further optimism are rooted in the fact Milton was the only passer to place inside both conference’s top3 in Uncatchable% and First Down+TD Rate (min 50 att). Though less sound with his ball placement than his predecessor, no target is too far and any busted play – of which the Vols logs plenty – can go for six. In case you didn’t know, even with the reduced games, Milton totaled more completions with a depth of target over 45 yards downfield (6) than anyone else in our study. 

Tennessee has one helluva trebuchet on its hands. But there are still noticeable kinks destabilizing his down-to-down mechanics both when stationary and on the move. Naturally with a more aggressive M.O. that yearns to get his awesome arm on tape, his degree of difficulty is upped. But Milton’s major driver for his numerous biffs and clear downfield choke jobs on his profile is his wobbly operation. He’ll string together a few plays straight with a tight, compact, confident delivery. Then, he will regress with hip chucks off his back foot. When a passer knows he can make off-platform throws or wow with unreal highlights, sometimes he’ll simply put less weight into a consistent operation. His surroundings and next-level traits should see Tennessee continue to challenge within the conference and keep his floor high. But if Milton truly wants to become a household name, he must refine his ailing inconsistencies with his mechanics. 

Largest Strength: Rocket Launcher Arm Strength 

Largest Area of Opportunity: Overall Accuracy and Improved Process Metrics

The Stats: color-coded to reflect percentile standing within impact class (green = great, white = mid, red = bad)

Spray:

Overall:

With only 82 attempts and a full fledged start against lowly Vanderbilt, Milton’s figures carry much less weight than most of our Impacters. Even if just a flimsy snapshot, however, his stats can illustrate how far he’s come and how far he still has to go. Blessed with a divine scheme and angelic arm talent, Milton blew his opponents away. Both his Y/A and ANY/A comfortably sat in the double-digits, a threshold none of his peers came close to achieving. His verticality and lofty ADOT promoted high returns of big gainers as a sixth of his attempts generated at least 20 yards. An absurd 67.1% of his attempts occurred on either a screen, RPO, or dropback play action. This should hammer home how much of his results were simply executing the greater scheme at work as well as how extra mechanism might be needed to goad his greatness. 

But all in all, there should be little worry that Milton will fizzle. His accuracy metrics are still pretty sour, but his catchability has improved tremendously thanks to his proactive play caller. And with more tries in play, nearly half of his throws last year found situational success, and his 40.2% First Down+TD Rate would’ve made the Impact top5. If his receivers drop an eighth of his throws again, his bottomline will take a hit; especially if his overall accuracy remains drunk. But he’ll overly be placed in spots to kick ass and do what he does well: dial up dingers and capture key completions. 

Downfield:

The Mighty Righty completed half of his downfield throws last year; and his Accuracy% tracked to be near the Impact top10. While QBs in our sample averaged a depth of target of 20.7, Milton’s figure was a robust 33.7, signifying his affinity for deep attempts. Of his 38 tries beyond ten yards downfield, only 10 were midrange targets. His astronomical 34.1% Deep Pass Rate was over a dozen points higher than the next Impact QB. Now, sustaining that clip across a season would be unheard of. But, it shows you Milton doesn’t need much convincing to chuck it deep. And with noticeably improved consistency on his placement, he projects to be all the more dangerous with increased reps. 

Pressured:

Milton only had 16 pressured attempts last year. So these numbers are even more unstable for our analysis. But if you care, Milton’s toolys traits propelled him to dynamic results. Behind relatively sound accuracy figures, a usual flaw in his game, he captured the group’s would-be best Y/A, ANY/A, Success Rate, and Explosive Pass%. Again, take these with a grain of salt. But only one other Impact QB posted a preferable Uncatchable%. His stony stature appears to be more composed and unbothered by blitzing bugs. And if Milton can remain a cool customer under the gun, his stock will keep on rising.  

Outside the Pocket:

Milton is a big guy. He isn’t designed to win too many footraces. He only logged a pair of scrambles versus 4 taken sacks last year. His value outside the pocket comes from extending broken plays with his plowing lower body and being able to hit guys on scramble adjustments downfield. He saw limited usage in this context last year. But one of his most impressive completions – an effortless 50-yard fling to Squirrel White in the waning moments of the SC game – came on the move to the left. You think everyone can do that?

Contested/Tight Window: 

Due to bountiful scheme elements and speedy receivers, Milton didn’t have to press tight windows too much last season. But when he did, his arm hubris of believing he can complete any pass emerged. Though he was relatively accurate in these spots, he was more prone to log a pass breakup than an on-target attempt. Plus, over a quarter were turnover-worthy. But while there were some pretty precarious throws attacking tight windows, Milton ended the year with 3 TDs and 0 INTs, which further hypes up his capacity for winning in the margins despite an untrusty process. 

Dropback:

Milton’s wonderful results were maintained when excluding screens and RPOs. And with fewer rinky dink throws included, his verticality ballooned. Every one of his result metrics outside of his 53.7% Success Rate – which tracked to be a top5 Impact figure – would’ve been a group-high. Though half of these throws were inaccurate and over a fifth were straight-up uncatchable, over a quarter resulted in a gain of at least 20 yards. But along with the dipped accuracy, Milton was more prone to throwing interceptables. And, his such 11.1% clip was well into the dangerzone. There’s evidence his bottomline will buckle under the weight of prolonged inaccuracy. Robby Ashford was the only other SECer with a sub-51% Accuracy% and +10% INTA on true dropbacks last year. Not the company you’d like to keep. So while the returns he logged are entirely commendable, that wonky of a process is pungent and cannot be dismissed even if the video game numbers continue. 

Dropback Play Action:

Milton’s dominating dropback numbers were noticeably boosted by play fakes. Exactly half of his attempts featured the tactic. In fact by volume, play action was so prevalent within his game that he logged more such snaps than the majority of his peers in our study. So while some breakouts are flimsy, Milton’s incendiary passing off dropback play action appears to be firm. As you might suspect, no Impact QB came close to matching his down-to-down output according to his kingly 25.8 ANY/A. And while his placement when not using manipulative scheme elements is still very much TBD, Milton seems to display more accuracy when his man is clearly defined, open, or the backend has one less defender in coverage. 

“Floor” Passing:

Milton’s passing floor is high. Don’t kid yourself. Leaning into downfield throws accentuated by an aggressive, fast-paced offense only makes him all the more effective; especially considering the top-speeds of Tennessee’s targets. That said, his passing floor is unquestionably shaky due to the volume of tricks, guises, and tactics Heupel used to butter Milton’s bottomline. Less than a fifth of the Vols’ attempts met this criteria; only Jaxson Dart – another “Super Spread/Veer and Shoot” operator – claims a lower makeup among returning SECers. 

His placement stats didn’t lose too much ground, but Milton’s accuracy remained unsatisfactory and a clear red flag ahead of this fall. Moreover, an 18.2% Interceptable% within structure is just plain horrendous. Time will tell whether his stupendously high scheme element usage is more of a reflection of his shortcomings operating on straight dropbacks or his play caller’s fancy to optimize the greater game at work. Still on a per throw basis, few passers will have higher expected outcomes than Javelin Joe.