The Skinny:

A large, strong, rumbling dual-threat. Capable of producing big plays by land and air. Smart and coached-up well within a friendly scheme, which propped up production. Catchability usually isn’t a problem. Fine distributor, but accuracy is dull; much sharper against mid opponents

The Fat:

Jefferson is a bit of an oxymoron QB. He’s nimble yet clumsy. He’s inaccurate but throws a catchable ball. He’s heady yet is buoyed by a Super Spread scheme. His stats are firm but the operation is flimsy. Still, his burly – and generally acceptable – play makes him one of the more attractive returning QBs ahead of this season. Arguably, there are shades of a young Big Ben Roethlisberger in how he works. Even though technically a run-first philosophy, He's asked to carry much of the load in Arkansas’ offense. Sneakily, the Razorbacks’ affinity for RPOs and trickeration is a constant test to Jefferson’s awareness and ability to execute the offense optimally. So far, mostly so good. Typically tuning in passable grades, he enters 2023 one as the SEC’s heralded names – being the only player amongst returners to place inside the conference’s top3 in both rushing and passing First Down+TD Rate. Only Tennessee’s titan thrower boasts a better ANY/A than his 9.0 figure versus all opponents. 

On the surface and from afar, there’s definitely a lot to like about KJJ. His process might be pretty wonky. But, the dude gets results with help of the scheme’s designs. Still, seeing his cumulative Accuracy% and Depth Adjusted Accuracy dip by 6 and 7 percentage points, respectively, in the span of a year creates pause. This concern is amplified when isolating his play against quality competition. Though Jefferson logs conversions and key completions, his iffy placement opens the door for backsteps and potential biffs. For what it’s worth, his cumulative 14.3% Uncatchable% didn’t budge year-over-year and tracks to be one of the SEC’s best. With sunken shoulders and occasionally dead feet, his throwing mechanics could use some tooling. Though not an every snap thing, you can see how it’s an anchor preventing some of his stats from souring. And again, he’s shown to be more concerned “just getting it there” than placing perfect passes. Tossing catchable passes certainly isn’t a bad thing. But it’s never the best idea to constantly ask your receivers to make adjustments on airborne attempts. 

His stature is undeniably sturdy. But you’d like to see that fantastic frame flash a little more. Jefferson has numerous 40+ yarder bombs on tape; yet none of his attempts have traveled beyond 45 yards downfield. Red flag? No, but it hints his verticality is capped and isn’t among the game’s elite. What might be one, however, is his takedown total. Each of the last two years, KJJ has finished within the SEC’s bottom2 starters in cumulative Sack Rate. On average last year, a third of his suffered pressures resulted in a sack. And despite his brawn, Jefferson’s 23.0% Broken Tackle Rate placed inside the conference’s bottom-dozen (5 of which were QBs) with only average YAC. Not too many people will question his ability to move the pile. But despite some top-notch traits, Jefferson could stand to show more boogie in addition to down-to-down consistency without guises to prove he can stick at the next level. 

Largest Strength: Physicality and “Catchability”

Largest Area of Opportunity: Refined Accuracy

The Stats: color-coded to reflect percentile standing within impact class (green = great, white = mid, red = bad)

Spray:

Overall:

Many people consider Jefferson to be the SEC’s QB1 ahead of this season. And while that’s TBD, Arkansas has previously schemed up copious completions for their statuesque slinger to pass the Good, Ole-Fashioned Eye Test. Over half of his sample’s attempts came off either an RPO, screen, or dropback play action, highlighting just how much Kendal Briles propped up him. And with defined reads, he dispatched tries to his guys smoothly and somewhat consistently. Though his potency was pedestrian, his ANY/A placed inside the group’s top8 with a top5 First Down+TD Rate. 

The orchestrations guided him, but Jefferson still had to make some throws. No Impact QB turned in a lower overall Uncatchable% than his 15.0% clip. And with more usable attempts, his targets had more opportunities to snag them. Despite facing one of the hardest slates, KJJ bested the group’s average in Success Rate, Adjusted Completion%, and Interceptable%. For many, checking these boxes is enough to fast-track him. Still, his subpar accuracy against his quality foes shouldn't be entirely dismissed. Moreover, his 39.2% Depth Adjusted Accuracy% finished dead last amongst Impacters. I told you this dude was a little bit of an oxymoron. 

Downfield:

Like many in our sample, Jefferson was a lesser version of himself targeting downfield against the meat of his schedule compared to when facing mid opponents. But like his sample as a whole, his knack for serving up catchable attempts fueled his production despite lacking the most refined precision. Though his process allows DBs to recover, deflates potential yardage, and potentially throws his receiver off his mark, he’s been fortunate enough to produce a desirable amount of downfield completions. Still, it’s a clear stain seeing his Accuracy% on throws beyond ten yards downfield was 2nd-worst in the group. 

Compared to his 41.0% cumulative clip that stands to be the best the SEC has to offer ahead of this fall, only 31% of his deep attempts in our sample were deemed on-target. He was just as likely to toss a turnover-worthy try in this area of the field. But the main blow to his bottomline came via his putrid 34.2% midrange Accuracy%. He was one of two Impacts to record a clip under 39%, in case you needed some evidence how severe his misplacement was. Though he’s not one to try too many dingers, his intermediate makeup was one the highest in the group. So behind his midrange misfires, another seed of doubt is planted under his profile. 

Pressured:

Arkansas’ OLine tended to keep Jefferson clean. But on pure dropbacks, the Hogs’ front five was more likely to falter. And thanks to broken plays, buffers, and other boo boos, adversity seeped into Jefferson’s operation. To reiterate, taking sacks presents to be one of his largest areas of opportunities. Against his hardest opponents, he was one of four other Impacters to suffer a sack on over half of their experienced pressures. On pure dropbacks, only one of KJJ’s peers topped his crushing 17.1% Sack Rate. 

Despite those knockbacks, he recorded an okay ANY/A. How? Ironman was sound under the gun. Though his precision metrics in most contexts were tart, Jefferson’s 58.8% Accuracy% and 75.9% Adjusted Completion% joined his normally low Uncatchable% atop the group’s leaderboard. In turn, his down-to-down result stats were lifted. However, it wasn’t all golden. KJJ is normally a prudent passer not looking to press. But when pressured, his judgment suffered. So even if his raw efficiency was in the green, his bang-for-buck raised eyebrows. His Interceptable% outshined his Explosive Pass% by 3 percentage points. Not a good look. 

Outside the Pocket:

On the move, Jefferson can lack urgency at times. Scanning the field, sometimes taking rollouts to the last possible foot, he continued to come thru with workable passes. But thanks to being occasionally boxed out by ensuing rushers that force his trigger finger, his placement remained poor highlighted by an alarming 18.2% Interceptable. A fading base and moderate fastball can only negate. And despite showing a little more verticality in these spots, his explosiveness went backwards. His First Down+TD Rate was relatively fine. But since only a third of these attempts beat situational goals on a per throw basis, his playmaking ceiling is lowered. The next level is looking for guys who can create out of chaos. While Jefferson’s might has him in the conversation, he’s on the outside looking in until his performance outside of structure gets more sizzle. 

Contested/Tight Window:

Jefferson’s tight window profile projects to be one of his most notable regression points. Riding one of the group’s lowest Drop Rates, he posted a top3 Success Rate and top5 First Down+TD Rate. Thus, only Sam Hartman thwarted his beefy 7.7 ANY/A on contested targets. But while a passer who generally throws useful attempts, Jefferson’s marksmanship was decidedly unattractive. His was 5x more likely to log an interceptable than an explosive. Since Jefferson doesn’t necessarily have to be pressured into making these throws, sirens should sound. The results were cash. But, replicating them is far from bankable. 

Dropback:

By volume, Jefferson had the fewest number of true dropback attempts of any other Impacter. And when you see the prolonged inaccuracy and tendency to suffer from sacks, it makes sense why his play caller proactively avoided putting him in these spots. Like his overall counterpart, KJJ’s Depth Adjusted Accuracy% was the worst in the group and his raw figure was firmly bottom3. Moreover, his Explosive:Interceptable Ratio was unideal. Still, his catchability gave his targets chances to make plays and obtain respectable output. Across an above-average ADOT, he nabbed the 5th-best ANY/A and First Down+TD Rate. A new offensive coordinator could see some new core concepts tweak Jefferson’s functionality. But despite acceptable decision-making, he remains untrusty thanks to his top-shelf accuracy. 

Dropback Play Action:

About a quarter of Jefferson’s dropback attempts came off true play action. But despite another healthy deception tactic oiling his stats, he wasn’t much of a standout against his better opponents. He still threw catchable attempts well. But since half were off-target and his men biffed another seventh away, he was unable to record worthwhile returns. He was average or worse basically across the board in comparison to other QBs in our study. Additionally, throws using this manipulation tended to be worse than their overall counterparts. These unassuming figures swiftly undercut any would-had momentum. However, there is a silver lining to the buzzkills: Jefferson doesn’t need to rely on play fakes in order to be his best self or bring about heightened efficiency. 

“Floor” Passing:

Like his dropback makeup, Jefferson's usage in clean pockets without guises or scheme elements was one of the lowest in the group. And again, thanks to Arkansas’ apprehension to use its passer in these situations, his small sample makes these findings somewhat flimsy; especially since a new play caller is in town. But since we’re here, the Razorback’s floor is majestic. Without adversity tightening his screws to force a decision or scheme elements lowering the bar, he captured one of the best Y/A, ANY/A, and First Down+TD Rates in the group. Plus, he was more than twice as likely to throw a big gainer as a turnover-worthy pass. And seeing that both of those metrics improved upon his overall stats hint KJJ could have more in the tank and further increase his down-to-down expectation. No doubt, continued errancy will hurt his stock and might ultimately kill his profile. But behind savvy completions and versatility, his floor might be firm enough to make the Hogs a divisional dark horse.