The Skinny:

A volatile, combustible, explosive passer with tantalizing arm talent. Mercurial results. Still trying to find the right balance of risk/reward. Strong downfield thrower; but either by preference or coaching tends to feast short. Smooth mover and has flashed outside of the pocket. 

The Fat:

In terms of talent, Rattler is near the top of his position. Besides donning a mini Howitzer for a right arm and being a natural playmaker outside of structure, he’s mobile and offers a multi-faceted skill set; meaning he’s capable of running any required scheme. That’s good, because he’s about to have his third new offensive coordinator in as many seasons. Across 2023, he was consistently one of his conference’s most accurate throwers beyond ten yards downfield. In fact, he owns the SEC’s top raw Accuracy% ahead of this fall. But he’s yet to pass the Good, Ole-Fashioned Eye Test thanks to mistakes, hubris, and failing to overcome his surroundings. Our heart wants to truly believe he’ll put all the pieces together in stride. But our heads are understandably weary of his inconsistency. 

Though always a strong down-to-down placer, Rattler has a history of trying to do too much and play hero ball. There’s plenty of “no no no…YES!” plays on tape. At Oklahoma, he was one of the nation’s best outside the pocket and creating chances for himself. That diminished this past season, but Rattler still holds mad belief that his arm can make any throw and dot any target. Some of his highlights suggest he might not be too far out from that class. Still, he logs way too many turnover-worthy plays to outright ignore; especially if his late-season potency was just a mirage and he falls back into being a Checkdown Charlie. It’s fair to mention, accurate passes are easier to come by with less-challenging targets. Will Rogers was the only other SECer last year to record an ADOT under 8 yards. And despite slinging more “sure-things”, his efficiencies fell on the wrong side of the league’s mean. 

Assuming his new play caller will take off his handcuffs and let him rip it a little more, Rattler’s explosiveness should be among his conference’s best and bolster his bottomline. And even though he did tend to pepper people short with outlet screens and log interceptables, his passing floor solidified this past season to reflect his exciting potential. His in-structure body language has visibly improved. And, his mechanics are attractive. Still, it all boils down to being more consistent. Show more sparks when facing pressure or staring down a blizter. Stop pressing closed windows. Keep up the laudable per throw accuracy. If Rattler does that, don’t be surprised if he’s in the discussion to be drafted on Thursday. Still, his play last year against quality foes accentuates why his stock remains tepid. 

Largest Strength: Toosly Traits

Largest Area of Opportunity: Prudence, Turnover-Worthy Plays

The Stats: color-coded to reflect percentile standing within impact class (green = great, white = mid, red = bad)

Spray:

Overall: 

Despite possessing one of the group’s best upsides, Rattler totally lost his fangs against quality opponents. Versus one of the hardest slates in our study, he buffered, he drifted, he pressed, he misfired. Since he is only average-sized, seeing the field can be a problem and he avoided the middle of the field. Despite ample scheme help to dictate his decisions and attempt to maximize his offerings, the Gamecock’s 5.2 ANY/A was 2nd-worst among the group. Furthermore, he was hindered by constant pressure that ensured he’d see considerable adversity. As a result, most of his metrics were resoundingly dismissible. He placed damn-well near the group’s floor in terms of Success and First Down+TD Rates. The only stat that laid out any hope was his 2nd-best 77.9% Adjusted Completion%. But again, the scheme’s guidance was more a catalyst per his bottom3 ADOT. His precision was pedestrian and his Interceptable% was the Impact study’s highest. To reiterate, Rattler will remain overly toothless unless he can optimize his offerings to be more bang-for-buck. 

Downfield:

Rattler’s downfield throwing ability is one of his selling points. Passes can arrive quickly, in-stride, and in spots few others can dot. But his marksmanship against the meat of his schedule was pretty sprayed. His catchability remained okay and tended to give his guys a stab at making plays. Still, his composite downfield Completion% was poor. Only 40% of his passes beyond ten yards downfield in our study were on-target, which put him in the group’s bottom8. A fifth of his such targets could’ve been picked off; only two of his peers were more prone to these boo boos. A man of his talents simply needs to do better. 

Opting to lean into dingers in this context, Rattler was the only other Impact QB to dedicate a higher target share to deep tries than midrange ones besides Caleb Williams. No one’s midrange makeup was smaller than our guy’s 12.5% clip. But despite his favoritism, Rattler’s intermediate passing projects to be the best the SEC has to offer. When including all games, his such 56.7% Accuracy, 58.3% Depth Adjusted Accuracy%, and 21.0% Uncatchable% all track to be tops amongst his conference-mates. Perhaps his usage increases. Still, these attempts against his hardest foes don’t foster much hope thanks to his knack for putting the ball into harm’s way. 

Pressured:

Rattler’s overall operation is unstable. So, analyzing his play becomes even more slippery when measuring his performance in spots like pressured dropbacks. Still, he was one of the most agitated QB’s in our study. An absurd 46% of his pure pass attempts faced a form of pressure. Only one other Impacter experienced a figure north of 37% on dropbacks. Suffice to say, these snaps affected his overall output considerably. And like his sour stats suggested earlier, Rattler crumbled under the gun. Often with his options running out and attempting to find somewhere to go, Rattler made plenty of throws that drew some expletives in disgust. With an Interceptable% greater than his Explosive Pass% and wayward passes scuffing up his placement metrics, his ANY/A barely finished in the black. Taking a step back to include all games, 8/12 INTs occurred on these throws (and half of those came on deep balls). Hoist the red flag!

For whatever reason, Rattler was more effective against pressure as a Sooner. Still, our guy has typically done a good job negating sacks. Sure with the amount of havoc he saw last year, he was bound to take some sacks. But his figure against his hardest opponents tracked above the group average, and his cumulative clip beat the conference’s mean. He can erase and extend. Plus, he’s gotten much better keeping his eyes downfield. These remain to be his bankable skills. And while risky throws kinda come as an add-on, his talent teases of future situational wins. Moreover, since these snaps are unpredictable year-in and year-out, who’s to say Rattler can’t regain his old form or even take it up a level?

Outside the Pocket:

Already a passer who liked drifting or was given chances on the move, Rattler’s pressure problem bled over into more attempts outside the pocket. Nearly a quarter of his sample’s throws met these conditions. Naturally, the righty was flushed to his dominant side where 70% of his playable passes were directed. Including all games, about a quarter of these throws resulted in throwaways – only three of his conference-mates claimed a higher rate. These, in turn, sliced his sample’s output and ballooned his Uncatchable%. But even with those biffs, his placement stats were somewhat respectable. Additionally, his INTA% was doubled-up by his EXP%. Ultimately, he was a pretty middling option on a per attempt basis. Though his metrics are rather meek, there’s still some evidence Rattler has plenty of juice to make plays outside of structure and further raise his ceiling. 

Contested/Tight Windows:

Without sugarcoating it, this was a stained section on Ratter’s profile. It illustrates his try-too-hardness, arm hubris, wincey decision-making, and why some folks will never hop aboard his bandwagon. Not to add more gas, but this tendency to toss turnover-worty plays paired with an shortsighted pass spray just isn’t a cost-effective way to spend one’s targets. The volume of screens and RPOs deflated his overall number of tries that tested tight windows. And looking at his repulsive INTA%, you can understand why Marcus Sattersfield wanted to limit such throws. No one can get by with every third contested throw potentially resulting in a takeaway. On the year, it was still ludicrously high at 28%. 

But if you can overlook his most inexcusable throws, the rest of Rattler’s contested stats show some underlying value. After all, he believes he can complete them for a reason. On the group’s 3rd-highest ADOT, our heatseeker captured the 2nd-best Explosive Pass% and Uncatchable%. Additionally, both his raw and weighted accuracy metrics track above the standard. The meh down-to-down results and his abysmal proclivity serving lollipops to opponents are very real concerns. But the occasional wow play keeps us coming back and holding out hope Rattler will figure it out. One way or another, he’ll continue to be a difference-maker attacking tight windows. 

Dropback:

Again, pressure maligned Rattler’s metrics; particularly on pure dropbacks. And like his stinky overall results, the Gamecock struggled to look good against the meat of his schedule. A below-average Drop Rate certainly was a factor, but no other Impact QB turned in a worse Success Rate. Plus, he was 1/3 in our study to produce a First Down+TD Rate under 30%. Without gimmes and outlets to pad his completions, less than half of his dropback attempts were on-target and over an eighth were turnover-worthy. Rattler did snag explosives, displayed more verticality, and helped curb takedowns, but he decidedly failed to elevate his offense on these tries. Even with the adversity, more should be expected out of him. 

Dropback Play Action:

Used to operating with scheme elements, Rattler was fine off play fakes. His placement remained unrefined, but he managed to maximize the tactic to a respectable Explosive Pass% compared to his peers. Drops plagued him. By assuming those are shored up, Rattler still is a fairly threatening passer in this context. His arm doesn’t need much extra space to capitalize on designs and these often can be one-read patterns to ease his thinking. While cracking the group’s top10 in Adjusted Completion%, half of these passes found success. Nothing sexy but it’s another tool in his box that offers some worth. 

“Floor” Passing:

When not pestered by pressures, propped up by screens/RPOs, or roaming outside the pocket, Rattler’s passing floor has bright spots. Though certainly not used in this manner as much as his peers, it's assuring to notice over two-thirds of these throws were on-target, only an eighth were uncatchable, and his Depth Adjusted Accuracy was one of the 10-best in our study. Butterfingers did botch his down-to-down results as Rattler’s Success and First Down+TD Rate were candidly mid. 

While South Carolina’s plan aimed to handcuff him and scrub out recklessness, Rattler has an innate desire to be a playmaker. As seen, his gung-ho heaves can be a double-edge sword. And, the YOLO ball lifestyle has clear drawbacks. Still with clean conditions with clear lanes, the unafraid Rattler hunted for big plays. No Impact QB was more prone to explosives or interceptables than Rattler in this context. Interestingly enough as a guy who struggles to balance his aggression with prudence, his respective rates equaled one another. Curbing the backbreaking decisions while still allowing him free reign to attempt big time throws has proven to be quite the quandary for Rattler’s coaches. Few challenge his toolsy traits and how they might translate to the next level; but not too many professional passers that log blunderful turnovers survive.