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2022 Vision: Making the Case for SEC RB1
2022 Vision: Making the Case for SEC RB1
The SEC as a conference is usually chocked full of running backs. And, looking at the crop ahead of the 2022 season, it appears to be business as usual in the land where it just means more. While a number of voluminous returners and unproven up-and-comers are up for the honor of being the SEC's RB1 -- there inherently can only be one. I mean, you could ask 15 different fans and get 15 different responses to the question: who will be the conference's top ball carrier. Since stats are my thing, I wanted to see which rushers have the best cases for that honor. But just looking at counting stats would be quick and worthless. You know I had to take it a few steps further. To start, qualifiers had to log a decent sample of first down runs, tries behind the chains, short yardage attempts, and instances with contact behind the line of scrimmage. These situations helped break out a rusher from his environment and gauge usage.
First downs are the most consistent scenario in the game and are closely tied to predicting future performance. Behind the chains chances can help get teams back on track versus reduced box counts but have an underlying enhanced degree of difficulty. Short yardage value is obvious; but it's important to weigh those tries appropriately as well as attempts when ball carriers are hit behind the line. Finally, all non-conference rushes are excluded. To paraphrase one of the greats: in order to be the best, you gotta beat the best. To include the transfers in this exercise, their samples came from their career games vs top70 defenses according to ESPN's SP+ -- tracking to project performance against future SEC foes.
Chris Rodriguez, Kentucky: Strong Case
Notes:
- A guy who checks a lot of boxes and consistently falls forward/negates mistakes
- His 2020 profile was one of best SEC showings recently
- Even coming off a year with butterfingers, he was the only SECer min 50 attempts inside the Top10 in Success Rate, YAC average, Explosive Run Rate, Broken Tackle Rate, Adjusted Gumption%, and Negative Run Rate
- Only returning SECer to rock an above average stat in the major metrics -
- Only SECer the last 2 years with +40% Success Rate when behind the chains; top 1D+TD Rate in 2021
- The last 2 years combined, no one's cumulative Adjusted Gumption% is better; only person with a clip over 50%
- Tackle breaking/potency in open field waned; below-average receiving efficiency
Devon Achane, Texas A&M: Strong Case
Notes:
The most statistically pleasing overall resume returning within the SEC
- Speedy and big play oriented known for breakaways
- Benefitted from one of the best cushions in the SEC but also delivered nice yards after when he built up momentum
- Below-average Broken Tackle Rate and Adjusted Gumption%
- A standout "on schedule"; his first down Success Rate was 10 points higher than 2nd-place; these snaps ballooned his profile
- Not the strongest performer behind the chains or in short yardage
Zach Evans, Ole Miss: Strong Case
Notes:
- A threatening big play runner
- He aimed to hit his dingers on first downs; 21% of his attempts gained at least ten yards.
- His sample's 1D+TD Rate, Broken Tackle Rate, Explosive Run Rate, and YAC average would've been top3 by SEC standards
- Very limited experience with adversity/short yardage situations; less than 10 att vs top70 DEF (small sample could see some volatility on the bottomline)
- Performed relatively superbly in most spots except on second downs or behind the chains
- His new scheme should be able to maximize his playmaking with reads/RPOs
Jahmyr Gibbs, Alabama: Strong Case
Notes:
- His best trait might be his maneuverability after the catch as a receiver; excellent efficiency
- Presents sturdy stable metrics and big play ability
- Questions remain if he can consistently erase mistakes
- He was touched behind the line of scrimmage on 35% of his sample's carries (Alabama allowed a 25% clip as a team in 2021
- If cushion increases and he can get positive inertia, his 2nd-best Broken Tackle Rate could fuel future explosives
Tank Bigsby, Auburn: Okay Case
Notes:
- Cartarvious Bigsby failed to live up to his nickname last season placing outside the SEC's Top15 in the 3 stable metrics
- his cushion decreased and noticeably handcuffed him; just wasn't the same ball carrier despite flashes
- Finished below-average in every major metric overall in SEC play
- The eye test teases he still is capable of making a splash
- based on inconsistent fire, there's no guarantee he can rediscover an efficient operation and bring value as a rusher; especially if the OL sucks again
Jabari Small, Tennessee: Okay Case
Notes:
- A ball carrier that benefitted from his scheme; pace, versatility, and aggressive/meddling pass game created plenty of space to do damage
- A volatile/mercurial back down-to-down with below-average stable metrics
- He was was his best self on first downs; averaged SEC's top rush yards before contact, 2nd-best YAC clip, top Explosive Run Rate (almost reached 30%)
- Entirely dismissible in every other situation especially when hit behind the line of scrimmage
Dominique Johnson, Arkansas: Okay Case
Notes:
- Including all snaps, he stands to be poised for a big breakout due to finishing Top3 in Success Rate, YAC average, Broken Tackle Rate, Explosive Run Rate, 1D+TD Rate overall
- Less potent vs SEC but still a name to watch; results did not stand out in any situation against SEC
- Dealt with poor cushion and posted above-average stable metrics
- Hardest runs often occurred on first downs or with contact behind the line of scrimmage; but one of lowest BLOS contact makeups amongst returners
-- If cushion improves, he could explode
Montrell Johnson, Florida: Poor Case
Notes:
- A deliberate runner who gets by with his braun and vision; he's often chased down
- Serviceable at pushing the pile/erasing but not a skilled tackle breaker
- Saw very little cushion despite playing behind a good OL and that killed his efficiency
- His rush yard before contact clip would've been the SEC's worst
- Due to lack of homerun speed and room to run, his consistency/explosives were lacking -
- Limited upside unless his propensity to shed defenders increases
Christian Beal-Smith, South Carolina: Poor Case
Notes:
- Experienced with plenty of tred on the tires; zeal has waned but still is a hard back to corral
- Cushion wasn't the best at Wake Forest, and his efficiency was helped by the "extended mesh" concept
- Bottomline was buoyed by short yardage success
- Adequate eraser; but overall, his stable metrics underwhelm, which lowers his ceiling
- Middle-of-the-road big run producer
Nathaniel Peat, Missouri: Poor Case
Notes:
- Coming from a scheme that lived in the stone age with its ground game; goalline sets were used all over the field and plays weren't too clever
- Coming from a scheme that lived in the stone age with its ground game; goalline sets were used all over the field and plays weren't too clever
- The heavy personell invited defenders and cushion was extremely limited; his rush yard before contact average YBC would-be 3rd-worst
- He was hit behind the line of scrimmage on 28% of his sample's attempts
- All situationals finished with bad returns
- All 3 stables were above-average led by his 4th-best YAC average
- Has experience with Outside Zones; Mizzou should love skill set
- With run lanes, he could be a very valuable back; he's a fighter
Ulysses Bentley IV, Ole Miss: Poor Case
Notes:
- A rusher who beat up on some bad defenses and simply lost zeal against his harder foes
- Despite being gifted above-average cushion, he finished with subpar results in every other major metric overall vs top70 defenses
- His efficiency was padded by his short yardage success; every other situational was unsatisfactory despite okay conditions
- Presumed to be a change-up back, he might find big gainers but projects to be pedestrian down-to-down
Noah Cain, LSU: Weak Case
Notes:
- A fairly mediocre ball carrier whose efficiency was helped by good short yardage runs
- Due to lackluster cushion, he was below average across the board on most major metrics -
- He's an okay option for getting a four/five yard gain
- Very few big gains and finished as a very forgettable tackle breaker
- Adequate eraser but his ceiling remains low
Rocko Griffin, Vanderbilt: Weak Case
Notes:
- There's no real case unless he become superman
- He should start the season as RB2 with Pat Smith nipping at his heals based on preferable stable metrics vs a higher rate of adversity
- No successful runs with initial contact behind the line of scrimmage in SEC play
- He might not be capable of doing anything unless there's adequate cushion
- Fell on the wrong side of the SEC mean in all major metrics overall
OVERALL CONFERENCE GLANCE
Transfers Non-Qualifiers Missed 2021 SZN
Season
TEAM OVERVIEW
PASSING EFFICIENCY
RUSHING EFFICIENCY