2022's Top 25 Most Impactful Transfers
Top 25 Most Impactful Transfers
Recently at On3 Sports, we unleashed our Top150 transfers from the 2022 class. But with varying ages, positions, and talent levels, not all of our players are bound to make instant impacts in the short term. Some guys are simply further along in their development than their peers. So, allow me to highlight the guys who I feel have the best opportunities to move the needle at their new stops this upcoming fall.
Caleb Williams: Quarterback, USC
Though Lincoln Riley is deserving of plenty of fanfare, Troy’s resurrection will come much easier thanks to its phenomenal passer. As a budding true freshman, this former five star accumulated the most Expected Points Added (53.6) than anyone else in the Big12 and finished top4 nationally in ESPN’s QBR (86.5). Plus, his old-school metrics – 9.1 Y/A and 21:4 TD:INT ratio – have many expecting the sensational play to continue. Heck even against his hardest opponents, nearly 44% of his attempts resulted in either a first down or a score. Still, Williams’ hype extends beyonds his stats. He hunts for dingers and isn’t afraid to display his impressive downfield zip, drive, depth. And for any casual fan peeping his highlight reel, his wheels aren’t much of a hidden secret. This kid can scoot. Williams only has average size and still needs to shore up his down-to-down accuracy. But with an arsenal of weapons at his disposal, his cumulative talent and strong environment make him easily this transfer class’s most impactful player.
Spencer Rattler: Quarterback, South Carolina
Even before taking a snap for the Gamecocks, loads of folks suspect Rattler will wind up the best passer to ever rock the Garnet and Black. Though quite possible, that will only occur if he can recapture the magic from this freshman campaign. In 2020 while finishing with Pro Football Focus’ 4th-best passing grade (92.5), he totaled college football’s 3rd-most “big time throws” behind an aggressive, deception-laden style of play. Ultimately he finished just outside the top10 in Y/A (9.6) and ESPN’s QBR (81.2). However, let’s just say his encore didn’t meet those standards. And now, there’s an underlying fear he might’ve morphed into a cowardly Checkdown Charlie based on his regression. Plus, Rattler has exhibited occasional arm hubris testing tight windows that have led to turnovers. But even when siphoning his stats and honing in on his results against his hardest foes during his time in Norman, his Success (57.1%), 1D+TD (42.6%), Explosive (12.0%), and Uncatchable Pass Rates (10.3%) all trump the best figures South Carolina has generated in those respects in at least half a decade.
Jahmyr Gibbs: Running Back, Alabama
Only three SEC teams turned in a lower rush yard before contact average than Alabama’s 1.88 clip when excluding garbage time snaps. Specifically, lead back Brian Robinson was hit behind the line of scrimmage on nearly 24% of his attempts. Well, the Tide’s next man up is ready to deal with that potential adversity. Against top70 defenses at Georgia Tech, Gibbs was smacked in the backfield on an absurd 35% of his touches. Despite producing a subpar YAC average (2.75) in those appearances, his 33.6% Broken Tackle Rate cracked the transfer group’s top5 and bested the SEC average by about six points. But while the down-to-down rushing responsibilities are important, Gibbs’ receiving potency gives him the bronze medal on this list. Last year, his 3.03 yards/route run – the ultimate sign of pass catching efficiency – was a whole yard higher than the next-closest returning running back. And, only a half-dozen receivers can boast a preferable mark ahead of 2022. For a reference point, Brock Bowers sported a 3.01 clip.
Jordan Addison: Wide Receiver, USC
The 2021 Biletnikoff Award winner entering the transfer portal was one of the most surprising stories of the spring. Tampering allegations aside, Addison is due to be the class’s most impactful receiver being paired with one of college football’s most impressive throwers. His analytics might not be the strongest to his peers, but it’s hard to notch 17 tuddys and 1,500+ yards being a bum. And after all, it’s not like his metrics are dismissible. Addison hauled 15/27 contested attempts, which was the 3rd-most in college football. He placed inside the top18 nationally in yards/rt run versus both man and zone coverages last year. And, he broke 21 tackles after the catch – good for the 9th-most. And like many of the receivers on this list, Addison showed a knack for making a difference deep downfield. Ten of his scores, which were tied for most in the nation, occurred beyond 20 yards past the line of scrimmage. Only Utah State’s Devin Thompson acquired more deep catches and yards than his 748 and 22, respectively.
Brandon Joseph: Safety, Notre Dame
Replacing Kyle Hamilton might be one of the trickiest tasks for any defense this off-season. Fortunately for the Fighting Irish, their top safety option for 2022 doesn’t appear to be a scrub. With 9 career picks versus only 1 TD surrendered over 760 snaps, Joseph is a quality backender. Of the multi-year transfers, only one other safety has a higher Pass Defensed Rate than his 19.6% clip. His ceiling was teased by his wondrous 2020 campaign where he limited opposing passers a 2.8 QB Rating and 2.1 Yards/Target. But no matter how good someone is in coverage, sustaining those miserly metrics would’ve been nearly impossible. Playing into the law of averages, he regressed more to the mean in 2021. Being responsible for more completions was the primary culprit for his statistical souring. But despite allowing a bulbous 81.3% Completion%, Joseph still prevented passers from posting worthwhile figures to the tune of a combined 65.9 QB Rating and 6.7 Yards/Target. And again, he’s an aerial ball hawk. Don’t tell me those aren’t impactful.
Jacob Cowing: Wide Receiver, Arizona
This slinky slot instantly boosts the prospects of Arizona’s offense – a unit that ranked 119th in ESPN’s SP+ metric. By the counting stats, Cowing doubled-up every Wildcat WR in yards and touchdowns in 2021. The team as a whole only totaled five more scores than his 12 tuddys as an individual. Among returning pass catchers ahead of this fall, only Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Oklahoma’s Marvin Mims trump his 3.84 yards/route run. Though transitioning from the Group of 5 into the big leagues isn’t always smooth, speed is Cowing’s best asset, and he should be able to get open just fine against Power5 DBs even if he lacks ideal size. Plus, it doesn’t hurt former Washington Stater Jayden de Laura and his top10 “Big Time Throw” Rate among returning QBs (6.9%) will be tasked with slinging him darts.
Jermaine Burton/Tyler Harrell: Wide Receivers, Alabama
This is a bit of a cheat, but pairing two proven Power5 receivers with a reigning Heisman-winner was an undeniably impactful move by Nick Saban this off-season. Both Burton and Harrell can make plays downfield and score on any given dropback. Harrell beat up on some bad secondaries, but his homerun ability helped produce a lofty 13.7 Yards/Target against top70 defenses. If averaged out over the course of a season, that mark would have earned second-place within the SEC. The top spot, of course, belonged to Burton’s 15.8 figure. In 2021, the former-Bulldog caught all but one of his catchable targets with no drops; buoying his overall efficiency and teasing elite upside. Not to mention, over a fifth of his targets the last two years have resulted in a gain of at least 20 yards. Contrary to the popular saying, It’s not just chicks that dig the long ball. Explosive gains – especially through the air – have a higher correlation to victory within the SEC as of late than the tried and true turnover margin. For any team in the title hunt, potent options are essential. Presumed to step in and satisfy the respective Jamison Williams and John Metchie roles, Burton and Harrell are well-positioned to help the Tide keep on rolling when airing it out.
Dillon Gabriel: Quarterback, Oklahoma
Though Gabriel lacks next-level traits, there’s a very strong chance he will finish this season as one of college football’s most productive passers. After all, he already has a pair of 3,500-yard campaigns and 70 career passing TDs. And while he’ll play in a new variation of the “Baylor/Super Spread” than he’s accustomed to, he’s already familiar with all the passing staples.. No doubt, my opinion of him remains tepid thanks to a moribund Accuracy% (50.9%), Interceptable% (9.8%), and Uncatchable Pass Rate (23.7%) versus his hardest foes. His process is noticeably flawed, but Jeff Lebby and Gabriel’s natural aggressive tendencies should result in plenty of highlights and gobs of yards for the Sooners. And obviously, he’ll have one of the nation’s most incendiary receivers to throw to and increase his margin of error. Gabriel should ensure the Brent Venables Era start strong – assuming defenses don’t come away with too many of his careless passes.
Jaylon Robinson: Wide Receiver, Ole Miss
Robinson is a skilled deep threat who mostly operated off an up-and-down route tree at UCF. Though playing in the “Baylor/Super Spread” offense can help grease an aerial attack’s bottomline and skew perceptions, his process matches his results. He dealt with a high amount of off-target or contested attempts but still brought in laudable efficiency. And despite a Group of 5 schedule reducing his degree of difficulty, his 4.3% Creation Catch Rate and 22.9% Explosive Target Rate against top70 defenses each doubled his new conference’s average. Ole Miss falls into the same philosophical tree as his old offense– with its own fancies and tweaks that favor more horizontal aspects – but Robinson could ignite this fall if featured in the scheme’s factor slot role (popularized by Elijah Moore and Treylon Burks the last couple of years). Regardless of who the starting QB will be, that passer will need a dude that can simply win downfield and offer an avenue to splash plays. And, Robinson squarely checks that box.
Tavion Robinson: Wide Receiver, Kentucky
UK certainly didn’t have to overthink who would overtake its “Robinson role” from last season once the former Hokie joined the Big Blue Nation. Named for the tasks of now-New York Giant Wan’Dale Robinson within the Wildcats’ scheme last year, the ex-ACCer was used in a very similar fashion while at Virginia Tech. No other receiver in the transfer group matched Robinson’s Screen+RPO Makeup (43.9%) and only one person saw a higher percentage of yardage come after the catch (59.5%). Downfield wins were hard to come by against top70 opponents thanks to that operation. But despite overly working close to the line of scrimmage, his adjusted Yards/Target and Explosive Target Rate each topped the SEC average. Plus, when isolating his returns on off-target and contested chances, Robinson’s dependability as a solid set of hands strengthened. In said truncated sample, both his Catch and 1D+TD Rates bested his new conference’s means by 20 points. With literally no other proven commodity within UK’s receiving corps, he’s bound to be Will Levis’ favorite target this fall whether on an outlet screen, quick hitch, or one:one fade.
Lonnie Phelps: Defensive Edge, Kansas
Coming from the Group of 5 with only one start to his name, Phelps is a quintessential under-the-radar candidate to make noise this season. Among the dozens of pass rushers to enter the transfer portal this off-season, none can match his cumulative 4.4% Sack Rate against top70 offensive lines. According to Pro Football Focus, he has 4 career games with a pass rush grade north of 70 against those units, which is also the top mark among the transfers. This past season, Phelps whooped the guy across from him on a fifth of dropbacks. For a reference point, Alabama’s Will Anderson turned in a clip just under 17%. In total, he has logged 16 QB takedowns so far in his career. But, the Jayhawk isn’t just a pass rush specialist statically speaking. His 6.4% Stop Rate – or instances of making a tackle for a gain that favors the defense – is one of the highest marks among returning edges nationally ahead of 2022. Since KU finished with the worst defense in the Power5 according to ESPN’s SP+ last year, those skills ought to move the needle.
Eli Ricks: Cornerback, Alabama
Some off-the-field concerns this off-season could be a red flag for scouts. But judging Ricks’ play between-the-lines, his ball skills make him an excellent “buy-low” option. He sports next-level traits and desirable upside preventing completions. Sure, his stock took a hit after a “dip” in play last season (His PFF grade deteriorated from 82.8 to 67.6 and his allowed QB rating climbed from 60.3 to 84.4). Still, the former All-American is unequivocally worthy of respect and trepidation testing his side of the formation. When targeted, he has affected 22.2% of opposing pass attempts from finding their intended receivers. Only one other transfer can claim a preferable figure in his career. Aware of Ricks’ frugal coverage skills, QBs only threw the ball his way 8.3% of the time this past fall – the 2nd-lowest mark in the group. Cornerback is inherently volatile. But thanks to his natural aptitude and the tutelage of Nick Saban, he is bound to be the portal’s most impact player at the position in 2022 – assuming off-the-field incidents stop.
Jahleel Billingsley: Tight End, Texas
Either inline, out-wide, or operating as an at-the-snap motion threat, Billingsley is a matchup-creating machine that demands the defense’s attention. He very much falls into the “unicorn” archetype of the position. Again, it’s not normal for tight ends to be used in such an aggressive and versatile fashion. And though there are some black spots on his resume, his old playcaller appears to be the best person in college football to maximize his splendid style. During his one season with Sark, Billingsley championed a 94.7% Catch Rate, 73.7% 1D+TD Rate, and 10.5% Creation Rate. Ahead of last fall, no returning SECer could claim better numbers nor trump his mighty 15.1 Yards/Target. However, drops, concentration issues, and mental mistakes prevented him from continuing on that tremendous trajectory in 2021. And while there’s no guarantee he can boast such a beautiful bottomline again, odds favor a bounceback thanks to his environment. Along with Sark’s scheme, he’ll line up next to gamebreakers that should facilitate premier matchup opportunities like in 2020.
Zach Evans: Running Back, Ole Miss
Since the Rebels are due to start a green passer, bettors believe more attention will be given to their lead back. According to his stable metrics against his hardest foes, Evans is ready for the spotlight. Against top70 defenses, his 31.3% Broken Tackle Rate, 3.93 Yards After Contact average, and 12.2 Yards/Target all looked down on his new conference’s average. And though he was gifted some nice run lanes on occasion, Evans’ burly rushing style negated TFLs. On runs where initial contact occurred behind the line of scrimmage against his hardest foes, he managed to produce a gain on 55.6% of such tries; no other transfer posted a clip higher than 50% in those spots. In case you were curious, Jerrion Ealy and Snoop Conner experienced “negative” contact on just under 24% of their runs in 2021. Though he brings homerun ability – almost a fifth of his career attempts as a Horned Frog eclipsed ten yards – Evans’ talent to erase losses should prove to be equally impactful for his new offense.
Tanner McCallister: Safety/Nickel, Ohio State
A box safety placing this highly on this list should raise some eyebrows; especially one not known for getting his jersey too dirty. Moreover, McCallister never finished a season with a Pro Football Focus grade over 68.0. Still, his impact is already being felt in Columbus. Coming from Oklahoma State with incoming defensive coordinator Jim Knowles, the vet has functioned as a de facto a field general this spring. No doubt, having such a trusty man on the backend helps his new teammates’ learning curve. McCallister notably was the first Buckeye this spring to “lose his black stripe” – a sign of his leadership qualities. But in case you needed some stats to feel better about his ranking, he’s only surrendered a career 57.6% Completion% and 7.5 Yards/Target. The latter along with his QB Rating allowed have both shrunk each season he’s played; sporting respective clips of 4.9 and 84.0 this past fall. Considering more than a half-dozen defensive backs transferred out of THE Ohio State this off-season, his schematic savvy is all the more valuable.
Mitchell Tinsley: Wide Receiver, Penn State
As a smooth operator on the outside with a history of occasionally creating opportunities for himself, Tinsley is a dark horse to usurp the honor of the Big Ten’s best pass catcher this fall. By the counting stats, few collegiate pass catchers topped Tinsley’s output in 2021. And nothing against Parker Washington, but this dude is primed to be Sean Clifford’s go-to option. Sure, playing in the Sun Belt with the aid of a future professional QB had a hand in his robust returns. But, he appears to be a hard man to cap. Only a dozen receivers posted a preferable Catch Rate versus man coverage than his 77.8% clip on an impressive 11.6 Yards/Target. And against top70 defenses, over half of his targets resulted in either a first down or a score with an Explosive% (15.9%) comfortably north of the national average.
Isaiah Neyor: Wide Receiver, Texas
Josh Allen aside, Neyor might be the most talented former Wyoming player of the modern era. The ex-Cowboy is built like a war horse and can navigate through, around, and by coverage obstacles with ease. He stands at 6’3 and is truly a challenge for secondaries to curb. Using that size, Neyor hauled in 15/25 contested targets last year according to Pro Football Focus. And for those who caught the Longhorns’ spring game, his deep post highlight stresses his ability as a playmaker who can win downfield and score on any given play. Last year, he was the only receiver in college football to total double-digit TDs and a 20.0 Yards/Catch. And now, he won’t be operating solo. Xavier Worthy himself accumulated a dozen scores and finished inside the top50 nationally in yards/route run. Behind Sark’s razzmatazz with motions and deception tactics, Captain Obvious wanted me to remind you capping these two will be quite the undertaking for Big12 secondaries.
Isheem Young: Safety, Ole Miss
When referring to the word “impactful” for most players on this list, I’m generally using it figuratively. But for this heatseaker, believe he will bring some weight to Ole Miss’s secondary in multiple ways. A thumper when he gets his momentum going, Young can also provide a spark for the Rebels with timely coverage skills. He led the transfer class in percentage of targets successfully defended with a sturdy 28.6% career figure. Certainly, that stat helped solidify his 5.9 Yards/Target and 37.8 QB Rating allowed. Despite spending the majority of his time lining up as a single-high safety, he logged a respectable 2.8% Stop Rate and missed a tackle on less than a tenth of his chances. Only one other top150 transfer safety sported a lower figure last season. Ole Miss’s defense is coming off a season where it finished on the good side of the SEC average in terms of Explosive Pass Rate with the league’s 2nd-lowest clip of surrendering 35+ yarders. Having Young in the fold to help against this conference’s crazy pass catchers certainly suggests the Rebels are on the right track to replicate those returns.
Grayson and Gabriel Murphy, Defensive Edges: UCLA
These twins hailing from North Texas are poised to take the Pac-12 by storm. They’ve combined for 26 sacks the last two years. Both are coming off seasons where an eighth of their pass rushes resulted in a pressure and 3.5% of their defensive reps resulted in a tackle for a gain advantageous to the defense. Or in other words, these dudes can play. Grayson graded as a more-skilled quarterback threat. When honing in on his games against top70 OLines, only one other transfer edge totaled more 70+ graded games by Pro Football Focus than him. And in those games, no one matched his beefy 17.3% Pass Block Win Rate. And flipside, Gabriel was more suited to do the other stuff. He had the preferable Missed Tackle Rate, coverage stats, and grades against the run. Though interesting prospects in their own right, together they present quite a headache for opponents to work around.
Quinn Ewers: Quarterback, Texas
The Golden Boy with the Golden Mullet will be faced with sky-high expectations leading the Longhorns. But he’s still green, raw, and unrefined in many areas. Sark’s scheme full of eye candy and play fakes should help his bottomline look pretty good by year’s end even if he’s still a work in progress. And while his process is still murky, Ewers should bring impact abilities thanks to his arm talent. Ex-QB1 Casey Thompson logged an Uncatchable Pass Rate over 20% last year – cutting that figure down and giving Texas’ terrific receivers more opportunities to make plays is an easy place for a year-over-year upgrade. Plus, his verticality was teased in the spring game; for what it’s worth. In 2021, Sark’s squad posted the 40th-best EPA/pass in college football. Though a fine standing, it’s no secret this program has been thirsting for higher acclaim in all gridiron respects for some time. Well, this young gun and his surrounding weapons stand to potentially vault this unit up a few tiers.
JT Daniels: Quarterback, West Virginia
No matter how you slice it, Daniels is a clear upgrade from the ousted Jarret Doege. That said, there are some medical red flags that have stunted his development and prevent this move from being a slam dunk. Year-over-year at UGA, he went from having the SEC’s highest Y/A and average depth of target to owning the league’s most robust screen+RPO makeup and percentage of throws behind the line of scrimmage. The iffy health that fueled limited operation ultimately saw him be replaced by a former walk-on; and the rest is history. Moreover, Daniels has posted a 7.5% Interceptable Pass back-to-back falls. So his decision-making still isn’t perfect. I might not think much of Daniels' arm talent and process, but he’s a passer who knows how to get results. For instance, his 47.6% 1D+TD Rate against SEC defenses is about 20 points higher than Doege’s clip against his hardest opponents as a Mountaineer. And considering JTD will be playing in a pseudo-Air Raid scheme geared towards attacking underneath space and making quick decisions, his skill set is bound to be maximized.
Azizi Hearn: Cornerback, UCLA
Few Group of 5 corners were as stingy as Hearn last season. Displaying the behavior of a true shutdown, he was only targeted on 8% of his pass snaps. And when his coverage responsibility was thrown the ball, he limited opposing passers to a lousy 60.3 QB Rating and 3.9 Y/A. Plus, Hearn didn’t miss a single tackle last fall. The last two years, he’s only allowed 45.6% Completion%. Standing at 6’1, 202, he’s clearly built to erase wideouts. And passers have seen their QB Rating dwindle each subsequent season when testing his coverage skills. But despite playing over 2,200 snaps in his career, he’s yet to log an interception. Only one other transfer corner in On3’s Top150 posted a lower Pass Breakup/Target Rate than his 9.6% figure. Though he had a nice spring, that element might convince Chip Kelly to use him more situationally rather than trotting him out with the ones.
Bru McCoy: Wide Receiver, Tennessee
Though I might think other transfer pass catchers are more-talented with higher long-term upsides than the former-Trojan, he landed in a fantastic spot to optimize his skill set. Assuming his on-field presence stabilizes, McCoy has teased a dink-and-chuck operation with a high concentration of targets close to the line of scrimmage or deep downfield – exactly the spray Josh Heupel's racecar spread offense prefers. He has the size to do damage after the catch and win jump balls against undersized coveragemen. Against top70 defenses, he was the transfer group’s most successful receiver with a 68.9% clip when omitting uncatchable targets. Plus, his such 51.7% 1D+TD Rate, 17.2% Explosive Target Rate, and 10.3% Creation Rate all hint the former five-star is capable of some magic when given an opportunity.
Michael Trigg: Tight End, Ole Miss
With only seven career catches, Ole Miss’s new tight end is a bit of a mystery. At USC, the 6’4 Trigg was used more as a “big slot” in 2x2 sets with very little in-line work – tasks his new offense will very much require. But there’s no reason to presume Charlie Weis Jr can’t get him up to standards and be one of the SEC’s most effective Y-men. After all, this is the scheme that saw Kenny Yeboah transfer in and log the conference’s top 1D+TD Rate and 4th-highest YAC average in 2020. While his usage won’t be off the charts – TEs only have roughly a 10% target share within this offense under Kiffin – this staff should be well-suited to put him in the right spots and find fruitful gains whether with slide RPOs, faux run pop passes, or true dropback patterns.
Zach Calzada: Quarterback, Auburn
The new passer on the Plains will undeniably be one of the most impact players of this transfer class. But unlike the rest of dudes on this list, it remains to be seen if he can help buoy a sinking ship or join it in the shadowy depths of college football irrelevancy. The Cuban Missile has a talent for zipping the ball downfield accurately and testing tight windows. He snatched his league’s silver medal in Deep Accuracy% (44.5%). But his down-to-down results and precision were decidedly sub-par by SEC standards in 2021. Over 22% of his attempts last year had no chance of being caught. Scattershot ball placement aside, his statistical shortcomings weren’t entirely his fault. He suffered from an unhealthy amount of drops (14.1%) and dropback pressure (33.9%). However, there’s hardly any guarantee he’ll experience a major bump in those respects as a Tiger. And if those persist along with his worrisome accuracy, the likelihood his impact ends as a net negative will be probable. Still, his strong arm and mobility could see his bottomline improve with more reps. War Eagle will be banking on that. Because, the only other known commodity at the position Auburn presently rocked a conference-low 0.02 Expected Points Added/play. No other SECer turned in a clip under 0.13.
Honorable Mention:
Troy Brown, Mitch Agude, Tiyon Evans, Jay Shaw, and Jaxson Dart