Scoping the 2022 SEC Schedule with help of the SP+

Spring is winding down, and we are set to hit the summer months. But as college football degenerates know, betting season never ends. The next wager is right around the corner. For many, placing win total predictions is the bet de jour. 

Since Bill Connelly released his vaunted SP+ Ratings last week, I thought it would be prudent to break down each team’s schedule using the metric. Due to its predictive properties, it’s a decent way to gauge future spreads and matchups. 

Some findings were basic. Like how Auburn and Arkansas have really hard schedules. Yawn. That’s a given. Or that Alabama and Georgia dont’ present many threats on paper. Same story, different year. But others nuggets were unequivocally interesting. Plus, taking a look at things from a different perspective every once in a while can be pretty helpful – Since money is potentially on the line, why not be as informed as possible, right? Even if you wind up listening to your gut or the Good, Ole Fashioned Eye Test, the colorful graphs make decent screenshots. 

GEORGIA: u/o 10.5, SP+ wins: 12.0, FPI wins: 11.6, Strength of Slate: 11th, 0 “tossups”

The reigning national champions will start the season viewed as the SP+ and Football Power Index’s 3rd-best team in college football. And thanks to an incredibly easy path, the numbers love Georgia to represent the East once more. While its might is obvious, only four SEC teams have an easier projected schedule according to the SP. And expectantly, the Bulldogs are predicted to win all of their games by multiple possessions. Though the ‘Dawgs dropped a bit due to their professional departures, Kirby’s defense will enter 2022 as a top8 unit. Plus, returning an old hand to guide the offense should ensure that side of the ball should be fine. After all, none of their peers are bound to play a less-challenging slate of defenses. Non-con games against Kent State and Georgia Tech are the primary culprits trotting in units ranked well into the triple-digits. 

Before the showdown in Atlanta, Georgia could be vulnerable in a pair of conference road games against Mississippi State and Kentucky. By that point in the season, some wear and tear potentially could play a factor and allow the home-dogs to steal a win. Not to mention, these two games directly follow the WLOCP and hosting Tennessee. As far as the SP+ sees it, all four teams sit inside the preseason top25 and their offenses are all top35 squads. Again, the Bulldogs are predicted to prevail by double-digits in most of those games. Still, that’s a tough month for anyone. Their win total was set at 10.5. Meaning, two losses would derail an optimist's bet. Considering both the SP+ and FPI figures reach at least 11 victories, taking the over seems hard to pass up.

ALABAMA: u/o 10.5, SP+ wins: 12.0, FPI wins: 11.3, Strength of Slate: 12th, 0 “tossups”

Coming in as the top team in the FPI and 2nd in the SP+, Alabama is analytically the best team within the conference. With Bryce Young and his weapons paired with Will Anderson and his mates, the Tide sports a top3 offense and defense. Like Georgia, the SP+ likes the Crimson Tide to coast through the regular season without losing a game. Only two of their peers have an overall easier slate in that metric’s opinion. But, that’s undoubtedly due to the weight of Alabama’s cupcake non-con schedule. Other than Texas, the remaining non-SECers rank no better than 92nd ahead of this fall. But as always, the SEC won’t be a cake walk. Furthermore, the FPI projects the Tide to falter once along the way to Atlanta. 

A large chunk of the candidates to capsize the champions of the west play Alabama between weeks 5-8. All those adversaries enter 2022 inside the top26; two are inside the top10. Per the SP+, the Volunteers have the best chance of playing the role of spoiler. Tennessee is the only opponent with a predicted margin of defeat within one possession, nay single-digits all season. The Tide have dominated that tilt this millenia, but road rivalry games can’t be dismissed; particularly ones sandwiched between a pair of top15 matchups in Texas A&M and Mississippi State. To reiterate, Alabama is favored to win comfortably in these games. But even if they log a loss, history has shown that could be NBD. Plus with their win total at 10.5, bettors can budget for at least one of those combatants to rule the day and still get a payday. Pessimists, on the other hand, will bank on the Tide’s rocky process from last year manifesting to lower Alabama’s margin of error.

TEXAS A&M: u/o 8.5, SP+ wins: 10.5, FPI wins: 7.5, Strength of Slate: 6th, 2 “tossups”

The Aggies enter 2022 as the SEC’s 3rd-best team and a top8 in college football according to the SP+. And besides its meeting the Tide, that metrics figures TAMU will win every game. The FPI, however, is less-trusting in Texas A&M’s talents. And, this stark contrast in opinion is ultra-apparent looking at each’s win total prognostications. I’m sure you can guess which side of the coin the respective metrics fall on. But even the rosey-eyed opinion of the SP+ views the Aggies’ offense as its weak link. Despite placing 36th, that unit is presently the 6th-worst in the conference. After all, a new starting backfield is a fair holdup; as is shouldering the SEC’s 5th-hardest defensive slate. Six of their opponents on their side of the ball rank inside the top30. And with four straight games away from home in the middle of the schedule, potential potholes are noticeably present. 

Like most of the league, half of TAMU’s games are likely to come down to a score. But road games against Mississippi State and Auburn stand to be the most competitive. Hell, the showdown with the Bulldogs projects to be a dead-even pick 'em. And, they get the honor of facing Jimbo before squaring off with Saban. That just screams “trap game”. War Eagle will own the luxury of playing the Aggies after three-straight one-score matchups against top40 defenses and two top25 offenses. So, the Tigers could catch a weary team aiming to just get to the finish line. Faders will also likely be bullish on the Hogs, Rebels, or Bayou Bengals – teams that all beat TAMU last fall. Still in order for the dudes in maroon to fail to meet their mark, they’d have to lose to four of these five squads – assuming the rest of their season goes as scripted. For what it’s worth, Jimbo’s record against that lot is 11-7. 

OLE MISS: u/o 7.5, SP+ wins: 10.0, FPI wins: 7.7, Strength of Slate: 10th, 5 “tossups”

Despite major personnel movement, the SP+ views Ole Miss as the exact same team today as it did ahead of the 2021 season – And if you recall, the metric thought awfully high of the Rebels last year and sided on favoring taking their over 7.5 win total. Of course, they crushed that mark and won ten games. Likewise, Ole Miss is projected to win the same total this fall. The SP+ has both its offense and defense inside the top26. Plus, their overall strength of slate falls inside the conference’s bottom5. Four of their foes sit outside the top75, all of which are their non-cons. And though the Rebel’s defense will be full of fresh faces, none of their peers can claim an easier schedule of opposing offenses. Other than Alabama, no other adversary dons a top25 unit on that side of the ball. 

In SEC play, the Lane Train again projects six one-score contests with five of them being decided by four points or less. Only one SEC team can claim as many. So even though they might have the analytical upperhand, no game is a given. Ole Miss could plausibly finish 6-6 or reach double-digit victories. And considering Ole Miss is replacing both coordinators, a lack of continuity could open the door for regression. While that’s possible, the magic number is 7.5. Splitting their one-score margins 3-3 would mean the Rebels would fail to hit their over, assuming their remaining games go as planned. For what it’s worth, the SP+ considers at LSU, at Arkansas and the Egg Bowl to be this team’s hairiest matchups. The latter two will come after hosting Nick Saban to close out the year. As of now, the FPI just favors the over with a predicted win total of 7.7.

TENNESSEE: u/o 7.5, SP+ wins: 10.0, FPI wins: 7.0, Strength of Slate: 13th, 1 “tossup”

Year-over-year, no other SEC team has improved by as much as Tennessee according to the SP+. No doubt, transforming from a lumbering, archaic scheme to Josh Hueple’s super-spread offense was the primary catalyst for the Vols’ vitalization. And as it currently stands, they currently sit inside college football’s top5 on that side of the ball ahead of this fall. If last year’s firepower continues – as the SP+ figures it will – Tennessee could capture nine or ten wins. Only Missouri has a less challenging schedule within the conference. Bottom10 teams Ball State and Akron are bonafide gimmes and definitely skewed UT’s schedule towards the easy side. All in all, the Vols project to only have a single tossup matchup, a rematch with Pittsburgh in the Steel City in week 2. That said, six games are predicted to be decided by one-possession, which notably lowers Tennessee’s betting floor.

Tennessee’s bye in week 5 is the earliest in the conference. And after that point, the Vols don’t have many opportunities to catch their collective breath. Traveling to Baton Rouge could be problematic, and hosting Nick Saban is never a fun exercise (even if the Vols have the best chance to beat the Tide according to the SP+). And based on how feisty UK has been the last half decade, Big Orange can no longer take that game for granted. Plus, Spencer Rattler and the Gamecocks ought to make things interesting when the Vols visit Columbia in week 12. Speaking to that, three of Tennessee’s last four games will be outside of Knoxville. Again, the early off week shouldn’t be viewed as an asset. Though the SP+ likes ten wins, the FPI is far more pessimistic thanks to the close contests. It projects 7 victories – falling under the Rebel’s 7.5 win total. For bettors, the dilemma boils down to whether or not you believe the Vols can win at least 2/3 against Pitt, LSU, and UK. 

KENTUCKY: u/o 8.5, SP+ wins: 8.0, FPI wins: 8.0, Strength of Slate: 9th, 4 “tossups”

Both the SP+ and FPI view the Wildcats as a top20 team yet are bearish on the prospect of them topping their 8.5 under/over mark – one of the highest bars in UK history. This program certainly has come a long way to where notching 8 victories could be viewed as a letdown. But even though Big Blue is slightly disrespected analytically, the Cats are dark horse darlings to make noise in the east thanks to three one-score matchups before their bye week. The odds of the Cats nailing the over skyrocket if they can come out on top in 2/3 at Florida, at Ole Miss, and hosting Mississippi State; and visa versa. 

Any lifelong Kentucky fan – even the ones claiming to be eternal optimists – will tell you to not fly too close to the sun with expectations. But due to the margins in question, Stoops’ Troops plausibly could enter the back half of their schedule undefeated; especially considering this top20 team is set to face the SEC’s 2nd-easiest slate of opposing defenses. On the year, only two of UK’s defensive foes enter 2022 in the top25; half rank outside the top40. And glass half full, the Cats will rock their best preseason rating of the Stoops Era on the other side of the ball. But a thin secondary and tough defensive slate will determine if Kentucky is fraudulent. UK projects to have the SEC’s 4th-hardest makeup of opposing offenses with six units ranking inside the top30. Winning shootouts hasn’t been this program’s M.O. the past decade, but the Cats are well-accustomed to beating expectations and skirting by with a low margin of error. 

MISSISSIPPI STATE: u/o 6.5, SP+ wins: 7.5, FPI wins: 6.4, Strength of Slate: 4th, 4 “tossups”

Mike Leach will enter a season with his best team in the eyes of the SP+ since his days at Texas Tech. But despite boasting an offense and defense inside the top30 with the 15th-best team in college football, the analytics aren’t too hopeful in the Bulldogs’ prospects of making much noise in 2022. Miss State is set to face the SEC’s 4th-hardest schedule thanks to the 4th-hardest set of defensive opponents. Seven foes rank inside the top30 on that side of the ball. And while the Bulldogs bring back the league’s most experienced backfield, that volume of quality opponents absolutely tempers expectations and makes Miss State a fade candidate. Unsurprisingly, the frugal foes translated into MSU having four toss ups projected to be decided by four points or less. They are only expected to win one of those contests. 

However, one close win might be all that’s needed in order for the Air Raid to reach their 6.5 under/over mark (assuming the Georgia and Alabama games are lost causes and the Air Raid can take care of business outside the SEC). And though Leach has yet to win an Egg Bowl, he’s split with the other three adversaries since arriving in Starkville – hinting more than one close upset is on the table. Bulldog backers should salivate after reading that. Plus, the team will have two separate three-game homestands. Still, nothing will come easy. Three of the four tossup games are on the road, which increases the degree of difficulty. Also, The ante really ups after the bye. Barring the vacation week playing ETSU, MSU’s last three SEC opponents rank inside the top25. FYI, Leach has a 4-5 record against ranked teams the last two years. 

FLORIDA: u/o 7.5, SP+ wins: 7.5, FPI wins: 7.1, Strength of Slate: 7th, 3 “tossups”

This time last year, some folks figured the Gators owned the best offensive schemer in the conference, a future top10 QB, and a defense full of athletes capable of propelling a consecutive trip to Atlanta. Flash forward to today, and no SEC team has regressed as much in the SP+’s opinion than Florida. According to that metric, the Gators are over a touchdown worse than they were last summer. Though great reasons exist in the Swamp for optimism, the statistical sourings have most placing modest expectations on Billy Napier’s first season. Both the SP+ and FPI project Florida to only win 7 games this fall and finish fourth in the division. Since the Gators will command a top25 offense and top35 defense ahead of this fall, that prediction is a testament to the league’s might. But with talent in its ranks, opportunities are there for the Gators to snatch some surprises. 

The Gators’ slate is middle-of-the-road compared to their peers. But if Florida is to beat expectations, winning the two tossups to start the year will be crucial. According to the SP+, the opener projects to be a pick em, and the week 2 clash with Kentucky looks to be decided by less than a field goal. Since the Gators are slightly favored in both, finding replacement wins on the schedule could be tough if they were to drop one or both contests. Assuming the defending champs maintain their momentary dominance, Florida would have to nab at least two of its three one-score road matches against Tennessee, Texas A&M, and Florida State. Though entirely possible, that’s a hard ask from a team with significant unknowns. Thanks to the pick em, the SP+ straddles the line on whether or not the Gators will top 7.5 wins. But, the FPI favors due to the personnel turnover. 

AUBURN: u/o 6.5, SP+ wins: 7.0, FPI wins: 11.6, Strength of Slate: 1st, 4 “tossups”

War Eagle is usually no stranger to donning a difficult schedule. In recent memory, Auburn has joined Arkansas inside the SEC’s top3 in strength of slate each of the last three seasons. And nothing is changing on that front for 2022. Six of the Tigers offensive opponents crack the top30 with seven defensive foes meeting that criteria. Unsurprisingly, Vegas responded by slapping Auburn with the 5th-lowest under/over in the conference at 6.5 wins. Though incessantly thirsty and coming off another drama-filled offseason, the SP+ views this program as the same team as it was this time last year. And while it's not exactly them hyping up the Tigers could beat expectations with some lucky bounces in its opinion. They have six one-score contests like most of the SEC, but four are due to be decided by less than four points. Three of those games will be played on the Plains. And the one road opponent, Ole Miss, has lost six-straight in this matchup. 

I get the trepidation backing the Tigers. But, the advanced metrics say take the over. Still, most folks from afar feel inclined to shade the Tigers. The SP+ might favor their chances against Penn State, LSU, and Arkansas. But common sense says all of those should wind up as losses. And in the early released lines, the dudes in the desert align with that notion, siding with the Nittany Lions by a point. Though a game that can truly go either way, Auburn’s season is likely to follow suit due to the outcome. Losing to the Nittany Lions for the second-straight season would solidify a path towards dissatisfaction. If War Eagle suffers that defeat, the Tigers would have to find a way to either beat all three of their remaining tossups or hope to upend Mississippi State or archrival Alabama on the road. Or in other words, go .500 in SEC play. 

ARKANSAS: u/o 7.5, SP+ wins: 6.0, FPI wins: 6.5, Strength of Slate: 2nd, 5 “tossups”

Sam Pittman has done nothing but whomp through expectations at Arkansas. After inheriting truly one of the worst situations in the power5, he and his Hogs are coming off the program's first winning season in a half-decade and best campaign since 2011. The results have seen Pig Suey instantly earn respect and clout. Analytically speaking, Arkansas’ SP+ rating improved 4.9 points year-over-year, which is the 4th-largest increase within the SEC. Yet because of the most competitive schedule in the conference, the numbers aren’t incredibly optimistic the Hogs’ ascension will continue in 2022 even if they feel another bowl birth is likely. 

Arkansas is set to face a league-high 8 one-score matchups and 5 tossups. Fortunately, three of their closest contests will be played in Fayetteville. In case you forgot, the Hogs went 3-1 in their predicted single-digit games at home last fall. Plus, if you’re a person who sides with the better QB when straddling lines, Arkansas appears to have the edge in that department in all five of its tossups against Cincinnati, BYU, Auburn, Ole Miss and Missouri. Considering the games against the Bearcats and Rebels are practically pick ‘ems, evidence is there for Arkansas backers to hammer the over. The public seems to agree. After all, the Hogs are one of nine SEC schools with an under/over of at least seven victories. That doesn’t happen without some source of optimism. But again, the SP+ and FPI are leaning towards the under assuming old powers regain power and the tough slate takes a toll. 

SOUTH CAROLINA: u/o 5.5, SP+ wins: 5.0, FPI wins: 5.9, Strength of Slate: 8th, 1 “tossup”

Though South Carolina’s 2021 process was rocky and it remains to be a roster full of holes, the Gamecocks are on an undeniable upswing enter year 2 of the Shane Beamer Era. Along with ending their brief postseason drought, the budding team also snagged its first bowl win since 2017-18. The buzz has continued to swell with the ‘Cocks being one of the transfer portal’s biggest winners. And, the prognosticative metrics have taken notice. Outside of Tennessee, no SEC program has improved by as much in the SP+ than South Carolina. And if the positive momentum continues, they’ll easily cross the previous standards set by Will Muschamp and Co. But even with the influx in talent and a general feeling of hopefulness, the 2022 numbers hint a muted autumn is probable for the Black and Garnet.   

The bar has been set between 5 and 6 wins by Vegas. Assuming the cupcake non-cons and Vanderbilt will be dealt with, the Cocks will only need a pair of victories to beat expectations and go bowling. But like last year, the SP+ appears to be a disbeliever in the ‘Cocks’ chances of going bowling again. South Carolina is the only SEC team other than the two frontrunners without a game predicted to be decided by less than a field goal. So, there’s no one-clear opportunity to budget on that front. However with five predicted one-score matchups, Beamer backers can remain hopeful this bunch can get to bowl eligibility. Though South Carolina are underdogs in four of those games, just as many will be at home, which certainly builds them some margin of error. Most folks will side with South Carolina in its game against Missouri. But the crux of bettors’ decisions will revolve around optimism in their chances of beating the Cats, Aggies or Vols. 

LSU: u/o 7.5, SP+ wins: 3.0, FPI wins: 7.7, Strength of Slate: 3rd, 3 “tossups”

Point blank: the Bayou Bengals will be the trickiest team to gauge this fall for bettors. Not only is a new coach in town installing a new foundation for the program, but LSU revamped its roster with transfers in basically every position group. The movement has seen the Tigers be one of the biggest movers this off-season per the SP+. Other than USC and San Jose State, no other teams shot up the national rankings by more spots than LSU’s nine. Still, the Tigers are viewed as 4.5 points worse year-over-year and are set to face the conference’s 3rd-hardest strength of schedule. As a result, the predicting metric only favors Brian Kelly’s bunch in three games in 2022. Now, just typing that feels ridiculous. And the SP+’s creator even voiced his disbelief that they will underperform at that level. But after ranking 45th and 65th nationally back-to-back falls, recency bias has soured the numbers. 

With 8 meetings predicted to be decided by one-possession, there’s plenty of ammo to be bullish on the Bayou Bengals. All three of their closest contests will occur in the state of Louisiana. Plus, the public seems to be riding the early optimism the Tigers will immediately get back to competing. Though the SP+ likes Florida State, Vegas presently has LSU as four-point favorites to begin the season. For this team to beat expectations, all three of those backyard brawls, its three games against pushovers, and at least two other one-score meetings all have to go LSU’s way. Kelly vs. Saban after the bye also cannot be entirely dismissed. But according to the numbers, clipping Tennessee and Arkansas seem like the most reasonable opportunities to exit the season with 8 wins – something the FPI believes will happen. 

MISSOURI: u/o 5.6, SP+ wins: 4.0, FPI wins: 5.6, Strength of Slate: 14th, 1 “tossup”

Though a number of programs appear to be moving in the right direction, Missouri’s momentum has seemingly stalled ahead of 2022. Questions at QB as well as the program’s ceiling have built a solid foundation of doubt ahead of a crucial fall for Eli Drinkwitz. And to make matters worse, the SP+ views the Tigers to have the conference’s 2nd-worst team. A large chunk of football fans would probably be quick to agree with that assessment. That said thanks to having the easiest schedule in the conference, Missouri is an under-the-radar candidate to monitor this fall. With only four one-score contests, not many opportunities are present to ascend up the rankings. But with all being budgeted as a loss – including week 2’s tossup meeting with Kansas State – it won’t take a miracle for Missouri to top its 5.5 under/over mark. 

The SP+ only favors the Tigers in four matchups; only one within the conference. But if Missouri can defend its home turf in its close contests – specifically against KSU, UK, and Arkansas – the over will come through barring any missteps. Though all are preferable programs today, none are overwhelming favorites to where the Tigers will just lay down and quit. Again, the Kansas State game is a literal coin flip. And dropping that early season matchup isn’t a total backbreaker. After all, when the two SECers visited CoMo two years ago, they both left with a loss. 

VANDERBILT: u/o 2.5, SP+ wins: 2.0, FPI wins: 3.0, Strength of Slate: 5th, 1 “tossup”

Another year, another season where Commodores will enter it with the lowest floor, ceiling, and available talent relative to their conference peers. Analytically, they’ve regressed year-over-year and Vandy remains the only team in the conference with a negative SP+ rating – meaning they are the ones in the league deemed “below average”. And since they don’t have the luxury to kick their own ass on the field, their strength of schedule sits inside the SEC’s top5. With a win total set at 3, Vandy isn’t even expected to beat all of its non-cons. To that point, the SP+ figures Clark Lea and Co will drop every single game from week 3 onward. Outside of its two predicted wins against Hawaii and Elon, Vandy’s expected margin of defeat is at least 11 in each matchup; eight have a figure greater than 20, which unsurprisingly are all conference games. 

At least the public is loving their chances to start the season with a victory. The SP+ views the trip to Hawaii as a tossup, slightly favoring the Rainbow Warriors. Yet, early action hints the ‘Dores are nearly TD favorites. Other than Elon, beating either Wake Forest or Northern Illinois appears to be the only path to topping their under/over. Color me, the SP+, and FPI dubious; We all are banking on the under there.