Seven points: Alabama vs. Georgia

While a large portion of the country suffers from SEC fatigue, there’s no question Nick Saban’s Alabama Crimson Tide and Kirby Smart’s Georgia Bulldogs are college football’s two most-talented teams. They are deserving combatants for the top prize in the sport. And even though the Tide already captured the dub the first time these two met, this rematch has no shortage of interesting storylines and matchup questions.

What’s Stetson’s Bennett’s leash? Who will be Alabama’s beta pass catcher with John Metchie Out? Will this become a war of attrition with health concerns on both sides? Which team is set up to win the explosive play battle? Can Kirby finally beat Nick Saban? Can Georgia finally win a modern title? 

See? There’s lots of stuff to discuss. And since I already did a deep dive on both of these offenses before the SEC Championship, let’s keep it light and touch on some key points -- seven of them to be exact.

1. Georgia’s pressures MUST land

The Bulldogs’ pass rush certainly affected Bryce Young in round one. For most of the SEC Championship, Georgia’s Pressure Rate hovered in the 30’s. And, the Heisman was constantly moved off his mark. After all, he only connected on 4/11 pressured attempts for 55 yards and a pair of conversions. But despite the duress, the Tide hardly had to dig deep into the playbook in order to get back into manageable spots outside of a few snaps. Alabama only averaged 5.3 yards to gain on 3rd down, which facilitated the team’s 46.1% Success Rate in those situations. 

Prolonging series was a big win for the Tide. But of course, that feat is easier to accomplish by staying on schedule and not moving backward. To that point, Young's pirouettes in the pocket and ability to prevent Georgia's ravenous pass rush from logging a single sack was a major upset. The Bulldogs entered the SECCG donning a superb 9.7% Sack Rate against conference opponents. Think about that. UGA averaged a sack on about every tenth dropback against conference offenses but failed to nab one in Atlanta. You can't tell me that element didn't severely swing the game. 

All year, Alabama has sat inside the SEC’s bottom5 in Sack Rate. There was a considerable expectation the Tide's leaking front would lose some battles in this department. Yet, Bulldog rushers tripped, slipped, and zipped past Alabama’s QB a handful of times. Sure, it’s a testament to Young’s magical style of play and savvy slinking out of sacks. But, that’s an incredibly volatile M.O. that screams Georgia is due for a correction statistically. And considering Alabama’s conference-high 35.2% Pressure Rate allowed, UGA should have plenty of opportunities to redeem itself Monday. 

Suffice to say, Georgia found out the hard way that pressures and havoc plays are empty unless they lead to game-altering occurrences. A batted pass or a forced throwaway just doesn’t hit the same as a sack or an interception. No matter how demoralizing a wasted down can be, there’s solace that no yardage gets lost to the enemy. And at least looking at when these two met last,  each time Alabama squeezed out a gain or avoided losing ground, Georgia’s spirit dissipated with each biffed blitz or failed pressure. 

Blitzes, stunts, and hurries have to get home. Flustering Young simply will not be enough. In general, Young’s 7.7 Yards/Attempt and 37.3% First Down+TD Rate under duress are both better than the respective SEC average when including all attempts. In other words, those two stats are on par with Florida’s Emory Jones’ overall numbers. Though obviously lacking to his attempts when kept clean, that level of competency should signify Young’s potency under the gun. However, all that becomes moot if a pass can’t leave his mitts. To literally buy itself some real estate, Georgia must kill the Tide’s drives with some sacks unless they wish to suffer the same fate as last month.

2. Alabama’s Run Game is Groovin’ 

Like its ineptitude maintaining clean pockets, Alabama’s offensive line has overly struggled creating cushion for its ball carriers this season. Entering the SEC Championship, their 1.9 rush yard before contact average was the SEC’s 3rd-worst clip. In conference play specifically, no offense put up a figure lower than the Tide’s 1.38. With little room to run, the Tide’s ball carriers ran with zeal but ultimately were capped to a modest 47.5% Success Rate. 

In an attempt to present more open avenues for his rushers, O’Brien has opted to lean on zone designs the last two games. Moreover, over 70% of the Tide’s designed runs have been off RPOs compared to 51% during the first 13 weeks. And boy, do these plays pop on the statsheet. The last two games, the Tide’s Yards/Carry is just under 6.0 and their Rushing Success Rate is a robust 62.2% Success Rate. Before round one, the latter was sitting under 50% when RPOs were involved. Again, fading gap schemes from the equation seems to be the driving force for the upswing. Despite being repped 91 times prior to the first matchup, Inside Powers (Duo, Counter, Power, etc) have only mustered five tries since the schematic tweak (10% to 3.5% play share). 

With busier designs on the perimeter and a clear mission for the O-Line, the Tide has seen their YBC average shoot up to 2.6, which is a third of a yard better than the SEC mean from this season. Plus, Alabama’s Run Havoc Rate has dipped from 26% to 17%. With less mess, the team has seen its Explosive Run Rate practically double and its Rushing Success Rate improve 12 percentage points to 21% and 59%, respectively. Considering Georgia and Cincinnati each have top10 defenses in terms of EPA/run, these recent developments are almost unbelievable. 

But if there’s any defense to humble Alabama’s front it's this burly bunch of Bulldogs. Smart’s squad has consistently prevented opponents from securing a +2.0 YBC figure and have famously limited the number of big gainers on the ground. While things can change, no SEC offense has logged a designed carry greater than 20 yards against them this fall. Not to mention, UGA commands the best 1D+TD Rate and Success Rate defending the run in SEC play. 

Still, Brian Robinson’s stable metrics will keep the door open for some potential run game splashes. Already a rusher traditionally no stranger to tight alleys, he’s posted a sturdy 38.1% Broken Tackle Rate and 3.5 YAC average over the last two games. The increased padding coupled with his ordinarily fiery running style have seen his Yards/Carry tick up a whole yard with a third of his attempts resulting in a conversion and over a fifth gaining at least ten yards. Robinson is the kind of back built to make undermanned boxes pay dearly and could be in store for a decent encore should UGA opt to live in its 2-deep shell Monday. In case you're curious, no SECer has more than his 102 broken tackles on the year by StatCat's charting.

3. How Aggressive will UGA’s Pass Game be?

Results be damned, Stetson Bennett is not a talented passer. Despite owning the conference’s top Yards/Attempt, Success Rate, and 1D+TD Rate, UGA’s QB1 posts an average Completion% with an Accuracy% and Interceptable Pass Rate below the SEC mean. Though he has cut down on his number of uncatchable passes – particularly on throws beyond ten yards downfield – Bennett still operates under a flawed process that has his offensive play-caller taking notice. 

Georgia might pass more and feature increased verticality compared to years past, but Bennett has been coddled with play action, screens, and RPOs at one of the highest rates in the SEC. Only the three “Super-spreader” QBs in Matt Corral, Hendon Hooker, and KJ Jefferson sport clips higher than his 55% figure in this context. When the Bulldogs have been up or down ten points on the scoreboard, only Corral has used more true play action and only Hooker has been gifted more screens by a rate basis. Granted, his numbers remain firm when not using these guises. But, these tactics are obviously ingrained into the scheme for a reason: Monken doesn’t want his former walk-on to shoulder too much responsibility for fear of his deficient arm. 

That said, stretching the field is a clear trait of this offense. Bennett sports one of the SEC’s three double-digit average depths of target with none of his peers dedicating a higher percentage of passes beyond ten yards downfield than his 40.2% makeup. All the while, his such 57.6% Completion% holds the gold medal. With and without play action, he will have opportunities to test Saban’s secondary that ranks 41st in EPA/attempt. That said, only former-Missouri Tiger Connor Bazelak put up a worse Interceptable Pass Rate on these throws than Bennett’s 16% clip among conference starters. Such a Jeckyl and Hyde dichotomy makes things inherently challenging for Monken. And, it’s an assignment I do not envy: Lean into capturing explosive plays, which are highly correlated to winning football games, at the risk of giving the ball back to a mighty offensive opponent or play it safe and ride behind a slim margin of error. 

Monken appeared to ride that line quite well against Michigan’s top30 pass defense in the Capital One Orange Bowl. Bennett targeted behind the line of scrimmage 14 times and finished with a lofty 47% Screen+RPO Rate against the Wolverines. But, six passes traveled beyond 20 yards with four of them finding their intended targets; two resulted in points. 

Bennett undoubtedly will have to make some throws if the Bulldogs want to be champs. But the thought of him acting as this offense's focal point leaves me – an objective observer who is a pass zealot – with more dread than optimism thanks to his iffy ball placement figures; especially against an opponent that has picked him off five times the last two meetings. 

4. Georgia Should Go Big to Play Small 

Georgia is not a particularly fast offensive unit, but size is on the Bulldogs’ side thanks to their terrific tight ends. Lining up with at least two on an absurd 45% of its offensive snaps this year, UGA’s down-to-down consistency has been heightened thanks to the extra brawn. In standard time, both the Dawgs’ Yards/Attempt and Success Rate from 12/13 personnel look down on their overall returns. Their 7.53 clip of the former is a whole yard better than the next SEC offense in line. 

But despite John Fitzpatrick, Darnell Washington, and Brock Bowers being marvelous matchup-creators all over the field and in both facets, Georgia’s potency suffers from multi-tight end sets. The team’s Explosive Play Rate, Pressure Rate, and rush yard before contact average all worsen. Still, the Bulldogs’ best interests involve playing their big bodies to stress Alabama’s defense. 

Against SEC opponents, the Tide’s defensive 1D+TD Rate and Completion% rise 3 points, and their Success Rate allowed balloons 5 points when up against multi-tight end sets. While UGA’s per play returns were rather modest in the SEC Championship, the Bulldogs rocked a 53.5% Success Rate from 12/13 personnel, which inflated the team’s numbers. Though the rest of the statistical silver linings are lacking, that should be enough evidence for Monken to lean into bully ball and use his size to his advantage. 

The Bulldogs trotted out at least two tight ends on 55% of their snaps in round one. And I think it’s a fairly safe bet that if the game goes UGA’s way, that figure will be even higher Monday. 

After all, football is a game of blocking and tackling. And forcing Alabama’s corners, stars, and safeties to fight through girthier obstacles in order to defend space raises their degree of difficulty. Though the Tide are sound tacklers in both facets, getting down and dirty could accentuate the normal wear and tear seen across four quarters and tip the scales into the Bulldogs’ favor. Plus, it doesn’t hurt that some of their top weapons (Bowers, Washington, James Cook and Ladd McConkey) all rock a preferable Yards/Target when at least two tight ends are on the field. Of the ten Dawgs with at least five attempts from 12/13 personnel, seven presently sport a Success Rate of at least 50%. 

Georgia might not be suited for a track meet, but this offense is well-equipped for a slugfest. This approach probably will birth some conservative play calls, but Monken should go all-in on playing big against Alabama. 

5. Alabama’s motion

Under Steve Sarkisian, Alabama was the SEC’s undisputed “motion offense”. In addition to tilting their formations pre-snap with realignment or shifts on 38% of their plays, the Tide featured Jets, Orbits, and Returns on nearly a fifth of their snaps in 2020. Bill O’Brien, however, has faded motion use across the board; it was one of the first identifiable characteristics of the change of power commanding Saban’s point machine. 

Before the SEC Championship, Alabama’s pre-snap motion rate shrunk from 33.3% to 19.3%, its Jet motion rate dipped from 10% to 4.9%, and its Orbit motion rate inched down from 8.2% to 6.9% in standard time versus conference opponents year-over-year. Enhanced pace perhaps was the culprit of this phenomenon; but Bill O’Brien apparently preferred to be a bit more static. 

That changed immediately in Atlanta. BOB was still overly averse to getting drunk on at-the-snap motions, but he tinkered with his alignments on 25 of the Tide’s 70 snaps (35.7%). Since motion did diddly for their ground game, these plays only netted a 44% Success Rate. But when looking at the 14 snaps that set up a true dropback attempt – ie not an RPO – the Tide posted a clean 10.0 Yards/Attempt on a 50% Success Rate. Lest I remind you, the best defense in the land hardly allows such consistent gains regardless of the look. 

And since motion worked against Georgia, BOB felt compelled to keep it going against Cincinnati to the tune of a 29.7% clip. Unfortunately, pre-snap motion had the opposite effect against the Bearcats. The Tide only saw one of their dozen such passes find success. And on the other side of the coin, they averaged a mere 3.4 Yards/Carry. Yuck. 

UGA has typically thrived against motion. Despite setting up with two deep most of the time, Georgia’s has only allowed a mere 0.6 rush yards before contact average to conference offenses when pre-snap motion is used. The Dawgs have obtained a TFL on over an eighth of their snaps and a sack on nearly a tenth of their dropbacks. Monitoring things from a far can help cap deep passing and athletic ralliers can curb large runs, but it’s still really tough to track down wideouts in the open field with blockers in the vicinity. All in all, they’ve allowed about a 40% Passing Success Rate, which is good enough to beat you on a bad day. And again, Alabama found a few openings to get its dudes the ball in space with the safeties playing back when motion is used. 

With Fansville watching, I suspect this offense will continue its recent uptick in fancying pre-snap motion; especially for the gimmies the tactic offers Young. Smart’s style can be vulnerable to slides, flats, and bunch formation bubble screens – all things seen from the Tide’s offense. Motion might not help Alabama’s run game open up holes, but it should at minimum present green lights for Young. 

6. Money Down Passing

Though a basic and trite premise, 3rd down passing will likely play a massive role in Monday's outcome. And based on the previous showings from this fall, that’s not great news for Georgia. 

Bennett has delivered some of the most efficient results through the air in the sport this season, but he has consistently floundered on the money down. Along with turning in a Success Rate 5 points under the conference average, UGA’s QB turned in a lousy 50.8% Completion%; only Zach Calzada and TJ Finley posted worst figures. In SEC play specifically, he sits inside the bottom3 in Adjusted Completion%, Yards/Attempt, Interceptable Pass Rate and Success Rate. Though the spry Bennett has scrambled for a number of conversions, time and time again his passing has left a bad taste in mouths across the Peach State. 

The Heisman – on the other hand – has been remarkably poised and consistent at moving the chains. Despite suffering from 45% Pressure Rate on 3rd down against conference defenses, Young’s 55.3% Success Rate lands in a class of its own as does his 25% Explosive Pass Rate. Both hold roughly a six percentage point gap over the runner-up. On the year, no SECer trumped his such Completion%, Accuracy%, or Adjusted Net Passing Yards/Attempt. 

Despite being a defense that is designed to get opponents into tricky later down spots, Georgia failed to bite in the first matchup. Excluding penalties, the Tide snagged a 46.1% 3rd down Success Rate and boasted a 14.1 Yards/Pass. The Dawgs themselves only converted on 3/12 opportunities including a miserable 18.2% Success Rate through the air. 

Schematically, Trail patterns have kicked ass for the Tide in these spots. Including all downs, no pass concept has been responsible for more than its 312 yards. And, 89% of its output and 74% of its targets have occurred on 3rd downs. The two designs that have seen the most love have been “Arches” (drag, corner, angle) and “Dangle” (drag, dig, angle). Adding to the difficulty of curbing the three-man combos, the Tide have commonly called these from bunch formations. In round one, Trails sported a 75% Success Rate including two tries that worked on the money down. Though O’Brien spreads the wealth around across a variety of looks, the weakside Flood staple Cross and the rub Mesh also have manufactured efficient 3rd down returns for this offense and should be on UGA's radar. Each has fielded over a dozen targets and logged a Success Rate of at least 54%.

Since the returns have been wonky and not entirely dependable, Georgia’s 3rd down pass attack is less centralized; 14 subconcepts have seen at least three targets with only two logging more than eight. Those looks are Mesh and Spacing patterns. Interestingly enough, these looks went 0/6 against the Tide in the SEC Championship game. The “Kelly Mesh” (RB wheel+play side sit hook with the core intersecting drags) experienced both of its failed seasonal tries in that matchup. Still, Rubs are one of three pass concept families to don a Success Rate north of 50% on 3rd Down that has field at least five chances. Floods and Sticks are the others. 

7. I think they win if…

I think Alabama wins if it can continue its 3rd down magic and capture at least six explosive gains through the air. In round one, the Tide crushed it on this front posting a 3rd down Success Rate 20 percentage points higher in comparison while practically doubling the Bulldogs’ explosive play total (13 to 7). Replicating that output is an immensely hard ask, but it will be required in order to quell a thirsty Georgia team. 

Though Brian Robinson has been a good ball carrier as of late, all eyes will be on the Heisman to lead the Tide to glory. If Young has an off-night or becomes careless with the football, Alabama won’t repeat. He doesn’t have to play perfectly or prevent the Bulldogs from logging a sack again, but he can’t turn in a below-average performance or leave an abundant amount of plays on the field. While there’s a possibility the Tide could nickel and dime, their best shot at the title involves seeking scoring chances with explosives. Obviously, that’s way easier said than done when missing your top target-getter. Still, Georgia’s defense is a renowned bully; so Alabama needs to be the aggressor and get the Dawgs on their heels rather than pursuing a passive gameplan. Or in other words, they need to come out swinging and land the first blow and not look back. 

I think Georgia wins if it can control the line of scrimmage and ensure Stetson Bennett doesn’t screw it up. Since Bennett is a noticeably flawed passer with clear limitations, Georgia would be wise to limit his impact. Again, he will eventually have to make some throws and operate beyond just distributing attempts via RPOs and screens. But based on his track record, he drastically reduces the Bulldogs’ margin of error. If the Bulldogs can limit his involvement and SB4 can find occasional situational wins, their rock solid defense presumably should have them in good position to bring hardware back to Athens. 

And besides, wouldn’t you feel more assured placing the bulk of the pressure on a bunch of four and five star offensive lineman and running backs instead? Sure, pushing around Alabama’s front won’t be easy; even for a team with a good rush yard before contact average like UGA. But, asking a former walk-on to dropback 28 or more times with the entire nation watching doesn’t seem like the optimal course of action. And if he stumbles early, the calls to bench him will become deafening. 

Though a strong defensive performance would make that thought moot, asking too much of Bennett or failing to have a strong contingency plan in place might spoil the Bulldogs’ best chance at ending their title drought. Go big, play old-school, and ride your dominant defense past the finish line. But it should go without saying, this is assuming the pass rush can log at least a couple of sacks.