Setting Expectations: Oregon QB Bo Nix

Though it can be defined many ways, I like to point to the old adage that interprets happiness as the positive differential between expectation and reality. If one elevates their aspirations and desired outcomes over the most likely result, the door is opened for regret, disappointment, and loathing to alter moods and memories. If I’m looking forward to a steak dinner all day but have to settle for microwavable sausage patties, do you think my heart would be filled with joy?

Already a program sometimes known for setting unrealistic expectations, Auburn and its supporters certainly raised the bar when Nix joined the fold. As a legacy recruit and a top3 QB prospect in his class, Nix’s toolsy skillset was supposed to reinvigorate an increasingly stale Gus Malzahn scheme and allow War Eagle to compete for division titles for the foreseeable future. But after three clunky seasons in which his QBR ranked comfortably in the 80’s nationally, reality had not come close to maximizing the couple’s intended vision. 

For all parties involved, no one seemed particularly happy in the marriage between Nix and Auburn football thanks to heightened expectations around the young gun and underwhelming returns. Of course, the separation agreement was announced last week, and Nix reemerged seven days later to announce he will play his senior season at Oregon – the very team he helped upset as a freshman in his first start. The decision couldn’t have been an easy one, but a new beginning was needed. 

On the surface, most people will judge him off his volume stats. If you care, he heads to Eugene with 7,251 yards, 39 TDs, 16 INTs, and 51 sacks taken. Plus, I’m sure old heads like the trend of his Completion% and Yards/Game increasing each passing year. 

Nix isn’t broken or a complete lost cause, but he’s still far from being a good college quarterback and competent thrower of the football. Again, the former-Tiger admittedly isn’t getting many glowing reviews after his performance on the Plains. Still, Lanning’s Ducks will be happy to bring in a QB with Nix’s abilities. He might not currently be living up to his five-star aura. But while most of his resume is subpar, Nix has enough tantalizing traits and statistical silver linings for Oregon to take on this risk in the short-term. If Lanning's gambit pays off, he might be able to take down his former boss Kirby Smart to kickoff 2022.

ACCURACY / Ball Placement 

Sorry for starting in a negative place. But, accuracy hasn’t really been Nix’s strength. While the SEC has had it’s fair share of precise passers, he never finished higher than 11th in Depth Adjusted Accuracy% within the conference. This past year, his 59.6% raw Accuracy% was three points below the SEC mean and behind names like Max Johnson, Luke Doty, and Connor Bazelak. 

Early on in Malzahn’s scheme, Nix was expectantly spoonfed loads of opportunities to pad his stats executing the offense. During his first two seasons, a third of his attempts targeted either a screen or RPO; none of his contemporaries in that time bested his usage of the latter. With so many gimmes, major red flags were raised on account that over a fifth of his targets were deemed “uncatchable”. 

Nix had a decent debut, all else considered. But, the Chad Morris experiment failed spectacularly. Deep throws diminished on the call sheet, and RPOs attempts increased. This resulted in his average depth of target dipping by a yard. Yet, Nix’s 36.1% Depth Adjusted Accuracy represented the SEC’s floor last year. Though accurate on a third of his 20+ yard throws as a freshman, less than a quarter of his sophomore bomb’s were on target. And since the scheme never emphasized or nurtured Nix’s proclivity to attack the middle of the field, that element created a massive hole in his game. On relatively seldom tries, His Accuracy% and Uncatchable Pass Rate on throws 11-20 yards downfield were both double-digit percentage points away from the SEC average. No bueno, Bo. 

Accuracy can improve, but only up to a certain point (outliers be damned). For now, Nix has not reached that point; especially after his ball placement figures rallied tremendously in 2021. 

Under Mike Bobo’s tutelage, the former-Plainsman posted a career-best DAA% (47.8%). In SEC play, his figure was even top3 worthy. Working out the kinks with his deep ball helped, but there’s no question Nix’s boosted bottomline was buoyed by his midrange amelioration. While completing over half of his such attempts, his such Accuracy% and Uncatchable Pass Rate bettered nearly 20 points year-over-year. Looking at the latter, none of his contemporaries produced a preferable clip to Nix’s 11.9% figure. Overall, he cracked the conference’s top5 (17.3%) despite screens and RPOs fading from Auburn’s script. His such rate was more than cut in half with Bryan Harsin in charge. 

In the world of What Have You Done For Me Lately, logging a good amount of personal-bests this fall sweetens Nix’s profile. Again as far as delivering catchable attempts go, he’s never been better. Yes, concerns steadfastly remain around his ball placement skills. Even after a good year, his accuracy figures in no way stood out in the SEC. The question for Oregon becomes: Was this improvement a sign of untapped potential or the representation of Nix’s precision at its peak?

DECISION MAKING / Aggressiveness 

Nix has always been an adequate decision-maker. To reiterate, his biggest issue is rooted in smoothing out his erratic ball placement. Assuming that comes to form, metrics like Success, First Down+TD, and Explosive Pass Rate should see gains. Behind inconsistent accuracy and plenty of disappointing drops, none of those aforementioned metrics topped the league’s average in Nix’s tenure as a Tiger. But, his boosted ball placement did help offset a deplorable 10.5% Drop Rate this past season. Instead of being ranked in the double-digits within the conference like his output as an underclassman, all three of those stats finished within a percentage point of the SEC average this fall. 

Now, Nix can still ignore certain routes at times or pre-determine throws at others. But, he has generally done a fine job of not putting the ball into harm’s way at an alarming rate, which can be a big problem for young QBs. Though Nix has a knack for backyard ball and can occasionally be drunk at the wheel, his career Interceptable Pass Rate has consistently tracked with the conference mean (finally a stat where his relative mediocrity is not a buzzkill). 

Speaking to Nix’s desire to not press, he’s coming off career-low Contested Target Rate. Though Malzahn and Morris had clear affinity for RPOs, they served up copious pass concepts outside the numbers. This translated to plenty of challenged one:one opportunities. Bobo, on the other hand, has guided Nix to look towards space more frequently; good thing too. Because despite his worthwhile arm strength, his Accuracy% on tight window throws never cracked 37% in any season.  

Nix seemingly has always had a desire to prove his metal. So, it’s curious whether his prudence continues or if he cranks his aggressiveness up to 11 in a ploy to turn some heads. He is known to be a believer in backshoulder throws and forecasts as a serviceable deep passer. But, he did just get back from “Camp Cantgobrokemakinaprofit”. So while Nix has a history of testing tight windows, sticking with the path that delivered his most efficient season might be the chosen route. Either way, I’m sure the defensive-minded Lanning will be preaching about improving Nix’s 6.3% Turnover-Worthy Play Rate from this past season. 

PLAY MAKING / Under Pressure

Nix is a combustible football player, but there’s no questioning his ability to create plays when designs break down. Not many dudes can make some of the plays he pulls out of his ass. Though these plays are largely unstable at predicting future performance, they can help unmask part of a passer's upside. In the ever-growing arm’s race, QBs who can gun under duress or help turn a sack into an explosive completion have become the most sought-after archetype. So scouting these plays can scratch that itch. 

Nix does have the prerequisite drive, zip, and thrust to make it work at the next level. But his bombs outside of structure have most been duds. When outside the pocket throwing beyond 20 yards downfield, Nix has only completed 9/28 such attempts in his career on a middling 9.6 Y/A. While this might be the only instance that I concur “stats are for losers”, it’s still important to gauge his effectiveness as a field-stretcher to date. 

Like most youngsters, Nix struggled under duress. During the Malzhan years, his First Down+TD Rate was near the bottom of the conference. As a freshman, nearly half of his pressured attempts were uncatchable and over an eighth of his sophomore tries were turnover-worthy. But while Nix’s Pressure, Sack, and Interceptable Rates all noticeably increased when Morris was in charge of the offense, His Uncatchable and Depth Adjusted Accuracy% each improved by double-digits year-over-year. 

This past season, Nix had his usual number of circus plays. But, he significantly improved his consistency under pressure. Though less than a fifth of his such attempts as a freshman and sophomore resulted in a conversion or TD, just under 27% of his throws accomplished that feat this fall. Only three other SECers can boast a better clip. The same can be said for Nix’s 41.3% Depth Adjusted Accuracy%. 

Along with his enhanced results, Nix created more opportunities for himself on broken plays in 2021. His wizardry was highlighted by the fact only an eighth of his duressed dropbacks resulted in a sack. Thanks to a few hundredths of a percentage point, only ex-Florida Gator Emory Jones commanded a better clip within the SEC this season. In short, Nix faced pressure on every fourth pure dropback attempt on average, but logged a mere 3% Sack Rate, which was the lowest figure in the SEC. Providing nice value over the average Joe in these spots, Nix used the conference’s best Depth Adjusted Accuracy% (50.4%) to capture the conference’s best First+TD Rate (31.8%). Though a wonderful development from his perspective, replicating that magic certainly will be a very hard ask despite being a buzzworthy talking point. 

Passing "Floor"

Though pressured attempts and plays outside of structure are used to guesstimate a passer’s potential, one’s “floor” is determined by measuring efficiency on clean+dropback+non-play action snaps. The idea behind this parameter aims to strip all the variables that might potentially affect a QB’s efforts and track them under more stable conditions. The premise is simple: When asked to execute the scheme as designed with no excuses, can you go out and get completions? No blitzers to blame for busting a design, no screens or RPOs to fudge the numbers, no play fakes manipulating coverages. How consistent and reliable can you be on schedule? 

For Nix, he failed to hit several benchmarks under these circumstances. During his time as a Tiger, he never placed better than 9th within the SEC in floor Success Rate, 1D+TD Rate, Depth Adjusted Accuracy%, or Uncatchable Pass Rate. Like his overall clip from 2021 hints, drops played a major role in his result-based metrics finishing on the wrong side of the SEC average. Still, lackluster ball placement concerns hammer home the notion Nix might not be able to put it all together. If you’re going to put any weight in Nix’s highlight plays, then you must take heed to the notion his down-to-down output will probably be just okay – maybe worse.  

Conclusion

Though a strong supporting cast and crafty scheme are useful in helping a passer’s efficiency, the biggest driver remains to be a QB’s own ability. Scouts can overlook his teammates' drops; less so for target’s thrown over his receivers’ heads. Despite the storybook backstory, the tale of Nix’s college career simply will not have a happy ending unless he continues to limit careless throws, progresses his accuracy, and administers more consistency. There are indeed some rose-scented bullet points on his resume; but don’t blissfully ignore his history as a topsy-turvy quarterback, because that’s the most likely outcome based on this exercise. 

And for the sake of Oregon’s happiness, please set realistic expectations based on the reality of the situation. It’s way easier to hop over a bar the lower it is. 

Bo Nix's 2021 Pass Chart