One concept each SEC offense should feature more in 2021

Alright! It’s game week. We made it. Pat yourselves on the back; and if you haven’t already done so, treat yourself to a nice cool beverage. Who cares if kickoff isnt for a few more days!? You’ve sure as hell earned it. Plus, it undoubtedly will help make this piece a little more digestible. In case you didn’t know what this article is all about, the title says it all. So, let’s hit it and see the looks each SEC offense should feature more this season either based on previous success or due to an upcoming personnel advantage!

Alabama: Flow/Leak

As the new chef in the kitchen, Bill O’Brien will likely stick with the previous menu’s staples rather than attempt to conjure a meal up from scratch. Though the Tide have modernized their scheme behind RPOs, insane motion, and aggression, the meat and potatoes of this offense will continue to be off-tackles and counters. Steve Sarkisian preached balance and deception, but always had a fair amount of panache with his playcalling. Currently, it’s not clear if O’Brien will follow that approach, but his style will naturally be formed by what he calls outside of those core runs. Obviously, the Tide executed most things well, finishing as one of the sport’s best offenses ever. So, there are a number of looks they should look to replicate. However, one concept StatCat would like Buttchin to dial up consistently would be Leak. One of the most lethal set-up plays around, the pseudo-flood design with a delayed release by an inside receiver has made many defenses' heads spin. Alabama targeted such looks eight times last season for 88 yards, five first downs, and a score, which happened on a 26-yard Najee Harris wheel route in the national championship. Both of the failed tries occurred when the Tide led by more than 17 points. Since it’s a play rooted in a bit of trickery, Leak isn’t an every series play. And doing the quick math, even Sark didn’t find the need to feature it every game. But since it has a lot going on in its X’s and O’s -- at least the way this offense typically runs it -- it’s ingredients are likely to be a great source of wide open completions for Bryce Young. 

Arkansas: Solo Shot

Arkansas was not a vertically-inclined offense in 2020. In addition to owning the SEC’s 4th-lowest average depth of target, Feleipe Franks only dedicated about 10% of his attempts beyond 20 yards downfield. Ironically, no SECer sported a preferable Deep Accuracy% than his 64% clip. The next closest of his conference contemporaries failed to crack the 50% plateau. Whether or not KJ Jefferson can sling it adequately 20+ yards downfield is still up in the air. But, this offense should explore leaning into more shot plays. Granted, the two primary benefactors of this concept StatCat is about to pitch are no longer in Fayetteville. Yet, this scheme should still be able to manufacture an occasional one-on-one matchup out wide. Under Kendal Briles and his Baylor Spread’s pace, RPOs, and underneath routes, Arkansas’ “quick game” anchors its offense. The Razorbacks’ most-targeted routes, slant, slide, flat, and hitch, totaled over 36% of their attempts. This style of play will invite even the most conservative backender out of position, which occasionally results in a cornerback being marooned deep. Again, this look is hardly flashy. But, instituting more vertical-choice elements to the SEC’s 2nd-most-reliant RPO scheme certainly could generate more potency and help the Hogs snatch more splash plays. Usually off a Y-Insert action, six of the eight Solo Shots found their marks. In meaningful minutes, no other look outgained it for this offense. Though manufacturing a one:one homerun ball isn’t overly complicated, there’s nuance into moving third-level defenders out of the way with only a single receiver working deep. Almost all Solos used Y-Insert or split zone action. Including four more variations of Vertical Shot plays, the concept group boasted a 75% Success Rate and scored thrice. 

Auburn: Play Action Bootleg 

Plenty of stories are out there bemoaning the previous regime’s shortcomings molding a threatening pass game. While this isn’t the space to dunk on incumbent QB Bo Nix, the honeymoon period is over for the former SEC Freshman of the Year, and he must stop playing like a chicken with his head cut off. Considering his past skittishness and overall mundane results, he should operate as this unit’s secondary facet moving forward. The ground game remaining this offense’s backbone isn’t much of a surprise -- especially peeping at all Tank Bigsby’s preseason accolades -- but StatCat would be thrilled to see more play action, particularly with Nix on the move outside the pocket. Nix’s legs are one of his past traits. But, Malzahn’s scheme didn’t always present great opportunities for bootlegs; nor was he infatuated with what the tactic offered his young passer. Nix’s career such rate sits under 17%; the SEC average has topped 20% in that span. Incoming play caller Mike Bobo called more PA Boots last season at South Carolina than the Tigers have since 2019. For what it’s worth, that concept finished as the lowly Gamecocks 4th-most successful look with a respectable 8.1 Y/A in meaningful minutes. Whether instincts or lack of trust in his blockers, Nix always seems to want to break the pocket and be on the move. So, why not lean into that while still providing him with a structure to make plays both on the ground or with his arm? Since Auburn enters 2021 with a colorless group of pass catchers, they probably will need all the help this new scheme can give them to help create separation. Bigsby will demand substantial defensive attention, and this staff needs to anticipate that by having a nice counterpunch ready with a nice PA Boot or Waggle. 

LSU: Y Shallow

By re-hiring Jake Peetz and DJ Mangus, Coach O made it quite clear LSU plans to actively and aggressively replicate the Tigers’ championship campaign schematically. Sure, 2020’s pass game showed some verticality and the run game displayed some diversity; but many of the staples that buoyed the Bayou Bengal’s bottomlines were overlooked and forgotten. The Joe Brady approach loved Levels, isolating his outside receivers, and seizing easy yardage underneath. Though Slants, Sticks, and Smash variations still littered LSU’s pass scripts last fall, for whatever reason, the Tigers were far less interested in pairing a drag route with its field-stretching patterns; especially from its tight ends. This tweak isn’t revolutionary. Still, it’s an easy way to pick on linebackers and get their eyes peeking short, which could further open up the three deep routes. And when play action is involved, that tactic is further highlighted. Despite playing in less games, LSU called and out-right targeted All Verts seven and 21 more times, respectively, year-over-year. StatCat caught 68 instances of that pattern last fall, but only 10 featured a Y-Shallow or Slot Follow wrinkle (14.7%). Including all designs, only eight such snaps targeted those concepts all season. In 2019, over 44% of LSU’s All Vert plays included those aforementioned wrinkles. In fact from the Tiger Bowl in Week 9 on, this offense incorporated Y-Shallow or Slot Follow with All Verts on 60.5% of its reps. Excluding sacks, scrambles, and checkdowns, these designs combined for a 13.6 Y/A and 48.1% Success Rate during that span. Behind it’s most recent approach banking on max protection, LSU turned in a single-digit Y/A with less than a third of these plays besting situational goals. Again, tagging a tight end chip and drag isn’t entirely special. But, Johnson has shown a decent aptitude slicing secondaries with midrange in-breakers. This simple high-low will give him opportunities to keep doing that while maintaining this scheme’s desire to work deep outside numbers. 

Ole Miss: Switch Variations (Wheelie)

Since downfield routes off RPOs are built to bully collapsing safeties, defenses have started to deploy more two-deep coverages in an attempt to cover their collective asses. Along with their natural edge of capping homerun balls by keeping extra safety deep, these coverages are typically symmetrical and don’t tip their strength. But in response to foes cranking up their two-deep usage, SEC offenses are calling more Switch patterns in an attempt to confuse backenders’ responsibilities.  Generally speaking, these are combos where the inside man works outward and the wideout visa versa. Perhaps not the most cerebral idea, but forcing bang-bang defensive communication on the fly is a decent tactic to bust coverage or potentially a benefit from legal downfield pick. The “Wheelie” wrinkle particularly is a favorite for many fans. Why? Everyone loves a good wheel route! Year-over year within this conference, that variation saw a noticeable uptick on call sheets. Why? Targeting wheel routes tend to work! As a concept group, Switches put up a double-digit Y/A and an above-average Success Rate. The Rebels easily topped the SEC mean with respective clips of 24.5 and 66.7%. Ole Miss, however, used them sparingly. In meaningful minutes, the Rebels targeted eight Wheelies, two Scissors (Post+Corner), and a wheel+curl combo. The former was especially fruitful gaining this offense’s 5th-most yards (205). Jeff Lebby and Lane Kiffin do a great job keeping opponents off-balanced by not featuring any one look too much. That said, All Verts finished as the Rebels’ most targeted pass concept. In case you didn’t know, this offensive braintrust is out for explosive plays. Ole Miss returns the SEC’s best deep passer and two of conference’s most efficient such receivers. Diversifying their deep offerings would surely help make this unit more potent. And based on the previous output, this concept group deserves more than just one target per game. 

Mississippi State: Under+Slot Scissor

Yes, StatCat just wrote a few thousand words on the single most important thing that could save Mike Leach’s version of the Air Raid. But while double-move patterns surely would help the Bulldogs occasionally stick it to drop eight coverages, let’s focus on an effective pattern the Bulldogs actually feature on a normal basis. Mesh and All Verts will always be the Sword Swinger’s go-tos, but his combination design pairing an Under concept with a Slot Scissor provided this offense the best of both worlds. From a four-man surface, both concepts attack the same side of the formation; and obviously can be quite effective against multiple defensive looks. But since most folks know Leach’s legions are dropping back, it's designed to thwart defenses sitting in a two-deep shell. The Under portion attacks short with its three-man combo of an outside quick-in, inside corner, and running back flair. It works just like the Spot concept but is a tad more regimented. All in all, that China Variation’s targets yielded this offense’s 3rd-best Success Rate with a 60% clip. The Scissor concept is completed by the No. 2 receiver to the trips side running a post. Despite being considered a deep passing concept, Scissor can deliver explosive gains even when a QB lacks premier arm talent; case in point, Will Rogers last season. Among all the designs that received more than two targets, the post+corner combo was the only look to record a double-digit Y/A. And even though the Bulldogs finished eight percentage points below the SEC average trying Scissors in terms of Success Rate, that combo topped their All Verts figure by the same amount. Whether as means to pick on underneath defenders with a quick developing pattern or trying to trip up backends with a Switch Variation, this design is well-rounded and would help squeeze some decent results out of the developing Rogers. 

Texas A&M: Sail

Jimbo Fisher’s pass game has generally feasted on short, rigid concepts commonly seen in many West Coast Offenses. But while these designs gain extra pop when receivers can capture yards after the catch, the Aggies haven’t exactly had difference-makers in that department the last few years. Sure, a shortcoming seizing sizzling gains can make this scheme seem less sexy and hurt their standing in the Ole Fashion Eye Test. But with a young passer sliding behind center, overly targeting modest patterns will ensure he won’t be asked to do too much, which could potentially limit his number of risky throws. That said, this group needs to improve its potency through the air even with Slants, Spots, Unders, and Smashes composing this unit’s core pass looks. Based on Haynes King’s skillset and last year’s output, dialing up more strong side Flood patterns would be awfully prudent. Firstly, this three-man combo presents a basic high-low level read breaking towards the sideline; typically where there are less defenders and hence giving the offense a numbers advantage. The easy structure doesn’t require a next level arm or mindset to find consistent completions on this look. Secondly, the Aggies’ pass catching strength comes from its inside options in slot/factor back Ainias Smith and tight end Jalen Wydermeyer. Playing with these two’s route responsibilities could stress opponents and keep them from keying in on any particular Sail design. Thirdly, this strong side Flood can be naturally executed in tandem with Play Action Waggles and Bootlegs. If the spring game was any indication, Fisher wants to get King on the move and simplify his reads and throwing lanes. Interestingly enough, King’s longest play from scrimmage last fall came off such a pattern versus South Carolina. The particular wrinkle that boosted this look’s bottom line was “Thumb”/Skipper. This little dandy initially sets up to be Sail’s weakside Flood brother concept Cross before the primary receiver bends back his route outside. All three of the calls Skipper Sails resulted in 30+ yard completions to Smith. For a scheme needing some splashes, varieties of this combination appear to be a clear solution to inject some juice into this unassuming aerial attack. 

Florida: QB Power Play Action + Cross

Though the Gators’ backfield is deep and diverse, Emory Jones will be this offense’s focal point. While his dropback acumen remains suspect prior to September, most folks are highly anticipating him to dazzle and delight with his running ability. Among SECers with at least 28 designed carries last year, Jones finished top3 in Yards/Carry and Rushing Success Rate while commanding the league’s best First Down+TD Rate. He also rocked the conference’s highest yards after contact average among QBs with a 2.55 clip. Over the last two seasons, about a fifth of carries have gone for at least ten yards. Florida fans should be giddy with what he offers in this department especially considering Mullen’s creativity. Quarterback Counter/Power plays with quick outlets were featured in 2020 with the lumbering Kyle Trask. No doubt, they’ll be tried with Pro Football Focus’ highest graded rushing QB behind center. But StatCat would be ecstatic to see Florida get feisty with some play actions off that look this fall. Many offense’s have found success pairing power play fakes with an intermediate cross over the middle of the field. Alabama’s juggernaut just experienced great success featuring that concept. And since foes will likely be looking to load the box and stifle Jones, using him as a decoy could potentially dupe defenses with greater magnitude compared to ordinary actions. Of course, Florida fans should know first-hand what it’s like to have a QB worthy of substantial defensive attention and how it can create opportunities for others. And like Tim Tebow, this scheme can greatly ameliorate Jones’ passing production even if he might not be the most sound thrower. Mullen will help him with screens and run-of-the-mill play actions, but these fakes should certainly become a featured wrinkle by the Gators this fall. 

Georgia: Dagger

Todd Monken has definitely put a heightened emphasis on the vertical passing game compared to Georgia's previous play callers. Ahead of this fall, JT Daniels commands the SEC’s highest Explosive Pass Rate, Yards/Attempt, and average depth of target after igniting UGA’s offense down the stretch. Only Matt Corral boasts a preferable Expected Points Added/Attempt and First Down+TD Rate amongst his peers. Daniels’ accuracy needs improvement, but his blazing bottomline has put the Bulldogs on the shortlist of title contenders. Well, that in addition to a deep receiving corps, versatile set of ball carriers, and daunting defense. That said, this offense should continue to pursue big gainers through the air. Floods Shot plays, and All Verts were UGA’s most targeted pass, and all should continue to receive a healthy play share moving forward. That said, Monken should dial up more Daggers. A known nemesis to two-deep looks, this seam+dig combo gained over 100 yards on its three completions with Daniels slinging the pill, all of which occurred against Mississippi State including the game-winner. All season, only three other concepts out-gained it in meaningful minutes. But despite being effective, Monken just didn’t fancy Dagger as much as other deep passing looks. Daniels only targeted the look once after his debut. Ironically, the concept was called eight times in the previous six games despite posting a 25% Success Rate in that span. All in all, it averaged a target a game with a Y/A four yards better than the SEC average. Compared to Shots, Dagger was five yards better in that respect while its Success Rate was nearly 13 points higher in comparison. Though a deep pattern, Dagger is a consistent winner. And considering the capabilities of UGA’s pass catchers, this concept should certainly shoot up Monken’s script for this season. 

Kentucky: Yankee Shots

Liam Coen wasn’t hired to maintain the status quo and run back one of the worst passing products in college football. Across many schemes that hinge around Outside Zones, Play Action Bootlegs and Waggles are natural counters to hit defenses once they oversell to stop the run. No doubt, those rollouts will be seen and should collect a good amount of reps this season for UK. But, StatCat would love to see an element of verticality to maximize Will Levis’ cannon along with Wan’Dale Robinson’s and Josh Ali’s abilities to win one-on-one. While a number of deep concepts like Dagger, Double Post, or Mills come to mind (and should be explored by Big Blue’s new offensive braintrust), Yankee Shots offer the most upside for UK’s current skillsets. And since Sean McVay’s offense has been known to call this look, it’s a good bet this concept will be in Coen’s arsenal this fall. Many schemes across many styles commonly turn to this two-man deep pass pattern to generate a homerun ball. This concept’s core characteristic revolves around either a deep cross or dig. Its variations depend on what the other receiver does. While streaks, bend-back corners, and mirrored deep crosses are normal compliments, most designs feature an overtop post. Off heavy set play action -- or in UK’s case condensed 11 personnel formations -- the goal aims to theoretically entice up one safety to stop the run and force the other into a coverage conflict. If the defense is left with a single-high, he will either have to bail to protect inside leverage against the deep post or come up to stifle the intermediate route. These can still manipulate two-deep shells, but usually more theatrics are needed. This is the first time since 2016 the Cats field two receivers capable of whipping their man downfield. Because of that, Kentucky’s play caller should have an endless supply of tweaks and wrinkles with which to attack secondaries at all levels of the gridiron. 

Mizzou: Tackle Counter Triple Option

Missouri’s whole offensive attack is rooted in its Off-Tackle play. The Tigers use it to constantly threaten the edge of the formation and get the defense glancing outside. And once opponents are widened, that’s when Eli Drinkwitz’s scheme can get kinky. Though Mizzou’s secondary run concepts consisted of sensible plays in Tackle Counter and Inside Zone Reads, this offense refused to let foes get too comfortable with their presentations. The razzmatazz and popcorn elements are some of the major reasons folks are rooting for Drinkwitz to take the SEC by storm. The Tigers might not win every game, but this group seems to want to make things compelling. In addition to flea flickers, end arounds, and double passes, StatCat is craving to see Mizzou include a higher number of triple options in this year's script. With the aid of receiver motion, both Tackle Counter and Inside Zone reads can occasionally morph into said three-headed attack. In meaningful minutes, the Tigers were just as likely to try a triple option as target its favorite pass pattern. This roughly translated to seeing about three per game. But while both Tackle Counter and IZ rendentions received equal play shares, there was great disparity between the two concept’s bottomlines. Across its 11 chances, only two IZ Triple Options met situational goals while only gaining 21 yards. Meanwhile, it’s counterpart put up a team-high 55% Success Rate and 6.27 Y/A. While this team shorn’t call a triple option every series, the Tigers certainly should look to feature its most effective rushing play more moving forward. I mean, if you were in charge of an offense, wouldn’t you call your best ground play more than twice every 100 snaps? Sure, a few departures and some reshufflings might make last year’s numbers moot. But Tackle Counter Triple’s selling point for more reps is certainly stronger than most of Mizzou’s designs.  

South Carolina: Mesh+Dagger from empty

Between Shane Beamer’s background working with Lincoln Riley and Marcus Satterfield’s recent schooling under wunderkind Joe Brady, there’s a fair amount of interesting looks StatCat is dreaming to see out of South Carolina this fall. But while Bash Counters, Y Shock, and Levels were finalists, Oklahoma’s recent Mesh+Drive staple from empty came out on top. Both concepts by themselves have been around for quite some time. And thanks to the likes of Mike Leach and Chip Kelly, Mesh is especially popular these days as a man-beater. Outside of All Verts, no singular pass concept saw as many targets within the SEC last year than Mesh’s 251. The Gamecocks, however, only dedicated 11 reps towards the look last year despite it logging the offense’s 5th-best Success Rate. Though Luke Doty had very little to do with those snaps, it just goes to show that even South Carolina’s forgettable 2020 offense was at least capable of executing that concept. Moving forward, the spread influence should fit Doty like a glove and help him maximize his natural traits. This coupling won’t ask him to make crazy throws or be overly cerebral. Plus, the innate ingenuity of the pattern will give SCar’s QB an out versus numerous different coverages. Since this look will be coming from five-wide sets, Doty could be gifted extra opportunities to show off his boogie should the design break down. But while Mesh and Drive work swell together, it’s not like Riley and the Sooners have only been honing in on one singular wrinkle of this pairing. Along with the standard ask of sending both inside receivers on the titular concept, Oklahoma has mixed up other versions with wideouts, four man surfaces, and even slot seam for an added sense of verticality. 

Tennessee: Counter (Bluff)

While the vertical passing game will drive the headlines and intrigue around Josh Heupel’s offense, Tennessee will still need to find consistent victories on the ground if it wants to hang with some of its divisional rivals. The Vols don’t have the talent to line ‘em up and knock ‘em down, but they’re hoping the added pace and intensity creates some opportunities when defenses are gassed or disoriented by tempo. Moreover, the Baylor Spread should serve up a more diverse run script compared to Jim Chaney’s final season orchestrating this offense. Both of the renditions of this scheme found in the SEC (Arkansas and Ole Miss) are rooted off Inside Zone Reads despite passing the majority of the time. Though it remains to be seen if the Vols will play balanced, those looks should lead this offense in play share. That said, based on Big Orange’s past success with Counters, Heupel should consider letting this gap scheme receive more tries. In meaningful minutes, straight-up and read versions of that concept combined for a 6.2 Yards/Attempt and 50% Success Rate. For what it’s worth, Joe Milton is the current favorite to win the QB1 gig. And while most are focusing on his arm, he was commonly used as a designed runner on Powers and pin/pull actions at Michigan. Accustomed to following a couple of blockers and barreling forward, his experience in this context certainly can add an extra aspect of danger for this unit. But it bears mentioning, Milton rarely functioned in the read option game, and other examples of the Baylor Spread seldom dial up Q-only run plays. In other words, something's got to give: either Milton learns to operate as a secondary option or this scheme tweaks things to better-suit its burly QB. StatCat will certainly be monitoring the situation, but hopefully this braintrust doesn’t water down its gameplan like the previous regime. For the video representation, StatCat drew up a version Arkansas' "Bluff Counter".

Vandy: Spot

Looking at the Commodores’ recent offensive output, finding silver lines and worthwhile positives is easier said than done. Last year within the SEC, they logged the worst TD Rate, Yards/Play, Success Rate, Early Down Success Rate, Rushing Success Rate, and Pass Havoc Rate. None of their 20 major metrics finished better than 7th. While the majority of Vanderbilt’s execution was downright sour, their most targeted pass pattern delivered pretty nice returns. And because of that, that concept should certainly be in this unit’s plans for this upcoming fall. Spot (or Snag to some) -- a three man combo consisting of an outside sit hook, middle corner , and inside flat -- is a pretty standard play seen in schemes from Pop Warner to the NFL. Along with being an untaxing design that doesn’t demand elite arm talent, it can whip both one- and two-high defenses thanks to its clever construction. As despicable as the ‘Dores’ dropback game was last fall, this concept begat a 79% Completion%, 61% Success Rate and 7.0 Yards/Attempt when Vandy trailed by less than 18 points. Only a handful of looks received at least five 3rd down tries for this offense. And in addition to being this team’s go-to in those spots, it was the only concept to see over half of its attempts work. Including all snaps, no conference offense featured this look as much as Vandy. And since the ‘Dores finished inside the SEC’s top5 in Success and Y/A, Spot has a very strong case to remain among this offense’s core looks through the air.