SEC StatCat's Top5 First Down Rushers for 2021

Even though offenses are starting to see the light and pass more to start a set of downs, the majority of first down plays — whether early in games or in garbage time — are runs within this conference. Call it conservative play calling or mental mind games in an attempt to impose one’s will over opponents. Either way, exhibiting efficiency in these spots are crucial if an offense wants to stay ahead of the chains. Most of us know 2nd and 5 just hits better than 2 and 9. Plus since 1st and 10 is the most common situation in the game, it’s a very good barometer for one’s down-to-down output. While I love the numbers, sometimes predicting a guy’s future performance is like trying to capture smoke. Though this list could change by year’s end, here are the SEC’s most successful rushers on first down ahead of 2021. 

5. Trelon Smith

Trelon Smith was gifted the highest rush yards before contact average to start a set of downs within the entire conference last season. With a gaudy 4.66 clip, success on the ground came pretty easy even if he was so-so in the process metrics. A fifth of his tries resulted in a conversion. Plus, the Razorback owns a top5 Success Rate, Explosive Run Rate, and Yards/Carry but falls comfortably into the teens in terms of Broken Tackle Rate and YAC average. While the tail end of that sentence doesn’t sound to auspicious, Smith’s Gumption Rate — or percentage of runs where he was hit in the backfield and still logged a positive gain, is the 5th-best amongst his peers ahead of his fall. 

4. James Cook

The Captain… or James Cook to every normal college football fan has been one of the conference’s valuable rushers in terms of EPA/play the last two seasons. Amongst returners for this season, his 0.237 clip sits inside the top3. Operating mostly in an unconventional style with an inconsistent workload, he has typically been UGA’s changeup back who looks towards the perimeter. With a style that is more flash and dash rather than bash and mash, no other person on this list dons a lower Broken Tackle Rate or YAC average. And though the Dawg is usually good for a big gainer, he was bottled up more than not per a bottom10 Explosive Run Rate. But behind the 4th-highest Success Rate and the 3rd-highest usage rate in these spots, Cook’s potency makes him an interesting option to start a set of downs. 

3. Kenny McIntosh

Not so fast, Captain. Kenny McIntosh actually ended the year as Georgia’s most successful first down ball carrier. While doubling up his teammate in First Down+TD Rate, McIntosh displayed almost a polar opposite running style. With a yards before contact clip that was practically half of Cook’s, a seventh of his carries experienced contact behind the line of scrimmage, but the Dawg didn’t log a single negative carry on first down. Behind his gumption and elbow grease, McIntosh rocks a robust 64.3% Broken Tackle Rate. FYI Auburn’s Tank Bigsby led the conference overall with a clip in the low 40's. Breaking out of tackles frequently buoyed his results. Over a quarter of his tries moved the chains or crossed the plain and he holds the 3rd-best YAC average amongst returners for this fall. 

2. Devon Achane

Coming on as a late-year wonder, Texas A&M’s Devon Achane turned plenty of heads as a first down rusher where nearly two-thirds of his touches occurred. No one else in the conference experienced a higher makeup than his 65.1% clip. Along with an impressive 57.1% Broken Tackle Rate, no one came close to matching his 6.46 YAC average that was fueled by plenty of breakaways. No doubt averaging 3 yards before contact helped, but Achane’s effectiveness shined through by turning about a third of his carries in these spots into a first down or score or 10-plus yard try. In addition to those league-leading marks ahead of this fall, no SECer with at least 20 such carries trumped his domineering 9.54 Yards/Carry to start a set of downs. 

1. Chris Rodriguez

The SEC’s most successful overall rusher was also the conference’s best option on firsts. This comes despite Chris Rodriguez logging the league’s lowest percentage of carries to start a set of downs. Donning a sterling 68% Success Rate, the Wildcat fell forward and kept his offense ahead of the chains better than any other SECer. While averaging nearly 8 yards per pop, only Achane posted a preferable clip in this context. Plus, Rodriguez owns a the 6th-best Broken Tackle Rate, a top5 First Down+TD Rate and the conference’s 2nd-highest YAC average. Though a burly runner who is conditioned to move the pile, C-Rod’s success rate on first downs was one of the best clips the SEC has had to offer in recent years, but most people just don’t care.