SEC StatCat's Top5 3rd Down Pass Catchers for 2021

On 3rd down, it is all or nothing. In these instances, play callers often strive to put the ball in their most trusted player’s hands in order to ensure the drive survives. But because those guys gets more looks on 3rd downs doesn't necessarily mean they are good at moving the chains consistently. (I can get open OR bad attempts - Best of Times). Since it’s called the do or die down for a reason, I think it’s better to focus on the doers rather than the diers. Though these players may or may not have seen a lot of looks or complied a lot of volume stats, and there’s absolutely no guarantee any can replicate this output moving forward due to the natural volatility of these situations, here are the SEC’s most successful 3rd down pass catchers returning for 2021. 

5. Amir Abdur-Rahman

This list starts with a bit of a curveball. Though Vanderbilt’s Amir Abdur-Rahman is a deserving inclusion, his 53.9% 3rd Down Success Rate technically didn’t finish inside the top5 amongst conference returners. Yet considering 15.4% of his targets — the 2nd-highest figure of dude’s on this list —were deemed uncatchable in additional to a rather well-rounded profile, I pulled a few strings to get him this position. While not dropping a single opportunity on the 4th-highest average depth of target, the Commodore posted a top5 Yards/Target and Explosive Catch Rate. Vanderbilt’s offense was anything but dependable last season, but Abdur-Rahman at least showed he’s deserving of Ken Seal’s glance on the money down moving forward. 

4. Chase Lane

As a boring, run-first offense’s tertiary option, Chase Lane is an easy pass catcher to overlook. But with TAMU and Kellen Mond being one of the best the SEC had to offer on 3rd downs last year, someone had to be one the receiving end of those chain-moving attempts. Lane’s 4th-best Success Rate fueled a double-digit Yards/Target. Blessed with Mond’s best chances, not a single target of his was charted as uncatchable in these spots. Though his weighted Depth Adjusted Catch Rate refuses to look favorably upon him thanks to the downfield catchable attempts he didn’t haul in, Lane was still moderately potent amongst his conference contemporaries.

3. Jalen Wydermeyer

Speaking of efficient Aggie pass catchers on the money down, Texas A&M’s headliner did a good amount of his damage in those spots last year. Tight end Jalen Wydermeyer suffered an overall drop-off in efficiency compared to his freshman campaign. Those miscues bled over into 3rd downs per his 19th-ranked 13.6% Drop Rate. Yet, he enters 2021 as one of the conference’s most consistent options to covert. With the 9th-highest average depth of target amongst returners, his Yards/Target and Depth Adjusted Catch Rate reflect similar ranges. Generating big gainers just wasn’t his prerogative in these spots as plenty of red zone attempts capped his potency. Less than 5% of his 3rd Down catches resulted in a gain of 20 or more yards last fall. 

2. George Pickens

George Pickens might not even log a snap this fall following his misfortunate knee injury. But if he does, he’ll be among the conference's best returning 3rd down receivers. Though topsy-turvy situations, his wide catch radius and ball skills are aggressively debunking that notion as this is the second-straight year he’s cracked this list. Despite seeing over a fifth of his 3rd down targets result in an uncatchable attempt, Pickens sports a top3 Success Rate, TD Rate, and Yards/Target. Though he didn’t log any explosive catches, his 14.1 average depth of target is the 2nd-highest amongst his peers which stresses the high degree of difficulty across his sample. In fact when you apply downfield weight and omit uncatchable balls, Pickens trumpets a perfect 100% 3rd Down Depth Adjusted Catch Rate. While his absence will be felt, UGA still has at least one guy it can look to trust in these spots. 

1. Kearis Jackson

Kearis Jackson is the SEC’s undisputed most successful 3rd down receiver returning for 2021 thanks to converting on two-thirds of his such targets last season. As a slot receiver that tended to work towards the middle of the field, he didn’t suffer from a crazy amount of wayward attempts. With less than 10% of his 3rd down targets deemed uncatchable, efficiency followed with his dependable hands. Jackson didn’t log a single drop on the money down. Nearly a quarter of Jackson’s catches resulted in a gain of 20 or more yards. Since splash gains were fairly common, the Dawg owns the SEC’s 2nd-best Yards/Target ahead of this fall. Even though he finished behind Pickens in terms of Depth Adjusted Catch Rate and TD Rate, Jackson has the number one spot locked up based on his sturdy resume.