SEC StatCat's Top5 Short Passers for 2021

While everyone pays attention to the home run balls, precision passing on short throws is often an overlooked art. Largely dismissed as easily throws since targets are closer to the line of scrimmage, short completions are harder than they appear. Failing to lead a target towards space appropriately or manipulate a throwing lane can neutralize a gazelle in the open field or a perfectly timed concept...or make a passer look silly for missing an easy throw. Though things can change with newcomers or future results, here are the SEC’s top5 passers on targets less than ten yards downfield. 

5. Myles Brennan

Though his deep accuracy is the primary reason Myles Brennan commands the SEC’s top depth-adjusted clip ahead of 2021, the Tiger was usually on-target throwing short. His raw Accuracy% only ranks 8th amongst returners and his Adjusted Completion% is 9th. But Brennan consistently gave his dudes chances at catches without putting the ball into harm’s way. No conference returner dons a lower Uncatchable or Interceptable Pass Rate targeting this area of the field. Plus, over half of his attempts bested situational goals. His personal clip from last year stands as the SEC’s 4th best for this fall. With Jake Peetz and DJ Mangus tasked with replicating 2019’s assault, whoever wins the job in Baton Rouge needs to be precise on these attempts. 

4. Luke Doty

Luke Doty was thrown into the fire and emerged burned and charred. But, the mobile passer showed competence targeting less than ten yards downfield. His Adjusted Completion% and Depth-Adjusted Accuracy both are top4 worthy ahead of this fall. And the Gamecock sports the 3rd-best returning Success Rate and Interceptable Pass Rate. In terms of raw Accuracy%, the soon-to-be sophomore delivered the SEC’s sixth best mark in 2020. Only one current qualifier can best his 77.8% clip. But of course the youngster showed his age with some wayward attempts. His 11.1% Uncatchable Pass Rate is the highest on this list and ranks in the double-digits for 2021. 

3. JT Daniels

Born on the West Coast and molded by that region’s preferred style of play, JT Daniels cut his teeth on the short stuff. In fact, his proclivity to work underneath damped my initial impression of the former-USCer. While he’s experienced some newfound verticality Between the Hedges, Daniels came thru performing his old tricks. His 93.3% Adjusted Completion% earned the conference’s silver medal last year as did his Depth-Adjusted Accuracy clip and Interceptable Pass Rate. His more static 76.9% Accuracy% looks to be a top4 figure ahead of this fall. The only reason the Dawg isn’t higher on this list is due to the fact his decisions only resulted in a 40% Success Rate, which is a bottom3 clip amongst returners. 

2. Matt Corral

Matt Corral wasn’t a master targeting short, but his profile is complete and doesn’t present a lot of blemishes. That said, a couple of his result-based metrics help buoy his bottomline. His Accuracy%, Interceptable, and Uncatchable Pass Rate all finished no better than seventh last year within the conference. Considering both his Adjusted Completion% and Success Rate cracked the conference’s top5, it’s fair to surmise his environment helped hide his mediocre ball placement throwing short. But with all the departures, the Rebel looks all the more strong in comparison to his contemporaries. All of his key metrics rank 4th or better ahead of this fall. 

1. Harrison Bailey

Harrison Bailey might not start this season. And again, being coronated as a conference’s premier short passer isn’t exactly something to puff out your chest about. But considering he’s duking it out with Hendon Hooker for the starting gig in Knoxville, the Vol needs all the positivity he can muster. Despite a wonky sample, Bailey logged the the SEC’s best Accuracy% and Adjusted Completion% last season on throws less than ten yards downfield. Though a couple of more-skilled QBs posted preferable Success Rates, no returner can thwart his 55.3% clip. Considering Josh Heupel’s offense is known for isolated verticals, this skillset could fall on deaf ears especially if Bailey never improves upon his 10th-ranked 5.26% Interceptable Pass Rate on short throws amongst returners.