SEC StatCat's Top5 Red Zone Passers for 2021

Football is often referred to as a game of inches. No area of the field reflects that mantra more than the red zone. Where points are at a premium and the defense is doing its damnedest to save face, it’s pretty easy for passers to obtain value by taking care of business inside their opponent’s 20-yard line. But like the saying goes. Though this list could look dangerously different by the end of the year, here are the SEC’s top5 returning red zone passers ahead of 2021. 

5. Connor Bazelak

Conner Bazelak was generally a middle-of-the-road passer during his first season guiding the Tigers. Though his ball placement is often iffy and his game resembles that of a game manager, he came through in the crunch above set expectations. Hindered by a 8.33% Drop Rate — the highest mark on this list — both his Success Rate and First Down+TD Rate finished outside of the top5. But thanks to his aversion of negative plays riding a conservative approach, his Depth Adjusted Accuracy is 4th-best and his 4.17% Interceptable Pass Rate is runner-up entering this fall. 

4. Myles Brennan

Myles Brennan was fortunate enough to not suffer from a single dropped pass inside his opponent’s 20-yard line. And thanks to the Tiger’s general accuracy, he was able to field a fairly good red zone resume. Pressing with the SEC’s 3rd-highest average depth of target, his First Down+TD Rate and Adjusted Completion% both are top5 figures ahead of 2021. And while throwing an uncatchable pass on a quarter of one’s attempts unequivocally sucks; as does a tossing a turnover-worthy throw every eighth pass, at least Brennan came through with the top returning Depth Adjusted Accuracy%.  

3. Matt Corral 

Matt Corral’s accuracy waned inside the red zone last season. Normally an okay passer in that regard, over 25% of his red zone throws were charted as uncatchable, and his Depth Adjusted Accuracy finished under 40%. Though a relatively decent figure per its top5 ranking ahead of this season, that is not a desirable clip when pinpoint precision is vital in this area of the field. Glass half full, he tended to avoid drive killers as his Interceptable Pass Rate is 3rd-best amongst returners. His First Down+TD Rate also crossed that plan, and his Adjusted Completion% sits inside the top5. If it wasn’t for his ability to avoid defensive takeaways, Brennan would’ve had the edge for this spot. 

2. Will Rogers

Will Rogers was one of least sexy slingers the SEC had to offer last season. Thanks to opponents muting the Air Raid by dropping eight defenders into coverage, the already noodle-armed freshman was resigned to dinking and dunking and leading a methodical modus operandi. Inside the red zone, only one returner sports a lower average depth of target. In other areas of the field, Rogers was pretty consistent with his short precision, and that trait bled over into the red zone. Among all conference passers in 2020, he donned the 5th-best Depth Adjusted Accuracy%. Amongst returners, that clip owns the SEC’s silver medal in addition to his First Down+TD Rate. Still, the young gun occasionally misfired ala a 12.5% Interceptable Pass Rate. Rogers got by playing small, but it’s time to take it up a notch. 

1. Ken Seals

Due to copious variables involved within red zone situations, there’s zero guarantee the Commodore can run back his play. But for a freshman to act as minuscule beacon of light for a program stuck in the dark ages, Clark Lea and Co. should take any positive they can build upon. Only one returner put up a preferable Adjusted Completion% to his 72.7% clip. And while it was meh last fall, Seals’ 42.6% Depth Adjusted Accuracy% holds the conference’s bronze medal entering this season. Though this decent ball placement was reflected by the 2nd-lowest returning Uncatchable Pass Rate, the ‘Dore dropped off a despicable 21.8% Interceptable Pass Rate. No SECer  was worse. But at the same time, his 47.8% First Down+Td Rate was the conference’s 3rd-best in 2020 and is almost 8 points higher than the next best clip amongst his peers.