SEC StatCat's Top5 Contested Target Passers for 2021

Most passers can hit a wide open target. But, not all of them can squeeze the ball into a small window or have an attempt beat a defender to a spot. Of course in a perfect world, passers would only direct their attempts towards space absent of opponents. But obviously, we know that’s not how it always plays out. Being able to consistently complete contested targets is a desirable trait loads of scouts look for when projecting guys to the next level. I mean, who doesn’t want a dude who can threat the needle consistently? Though things can change once action starts, here are the SEC’s top5 passers targeted tight windows returning for 2021. 

5. Ken Seals

Captain Obvious wanted me to remind you that Vanderbilt suffered from a bit of a talent deficiency in 2020. With a scheme that struggled to take the top off of opponents and limited personnel, the Commodores constantly found themselves fielding contested targets. No SECer trumped Ken Seal’s 30.6% such rate last season. But with plenty of practice attacking these windows, his sits inside the conference’s top5 in contested Adjusted Completion percentage, First Down+TD Rate, and Explosive Pass Rate. Though his bottomline is favorable to a good amount of his peers, iffy ball placement could plummet his standings. Along with a Depth Adjusted Accuracy that falls outside of the top5 for 2021, a quarter of his tight window targets had turnover-worthy potential, which is a terrible recipe for success. 

4. Connor Bazelak

Thanks to being slightly more precise and potent while being a little less risky, Missouri’s Conner Bazelak jumps ahead of Seals despite posting a less preferable Adj Completion% targeting tight windows.  Granted throwing an interceptable attempt on every fifth pass is totally reckless. But, the Tiger basically sits inside the conference’s top5 with the exception to that dismal clip in this context ahead of next fall. Plus, his result-based metrics would surely look better had Bazelak not logged a double-digit Drop Rate on the SEC’s 3rd-highest returning average depth of target. 

3. JT Daniels

Though he wasn’t immune from squeezing a ball into a small hole short, the majority of the JT Daniels’ contested targets occurred 20-plus yards downfield. Completions came, which fueled laudable stat lines. His Adjusted Completion% is runner-up ahead of this fall. And no one can present a better First Down+TD Rate, Explosive Pass Rate, or Yards/Attempt. But despite those superb figures, Daniels struggled to consistently place these passes in a worthwhile manner. Sure, he gave his dudes a stab of these attempts. But his woeful 30.8% Depth Adjusted Accuracy is the 4th-worst amongst qualifying SECers and his lousy 25% Interceptable Pass Rate is exactly as bad as Seals’. With those souring his resume, I can’t in good conscience rank him higher than 3rd. 

2. Myles Brennan

Though other performers topped a number of his stats, Myles Brennan projects one of the SEC’s most balanced profiles targeting tight windows based on his snaps last fall. First and foremost, no SECer matched his 51.2% Depth Adjusted Accuracy% on these throws in 2020. In fact, no other returner crossed the 40% threshold. Though a Drop Rate near 10% hurt his bottom line, the Bayou Bengal still sits inside the conference’s top5 amongst returners across the board. While a double-digit Interceptable Pass Rate is undesirable, it was relatively average within the conference last year. Brennan came thru finding his mark on these targets, but only one returner logged a lower Contested Throw Rate than his 23.7% clip. 

1. Matt Corral

No returning SECer topples Matt Corral’s 674 contested yards, 30 combined first downs and scores, or  61% Adjusted Completion%. Though the latter took them into account, drops prevented his gap over the rest of the returners from gaining more ground. The Rebel suffered a drop on every seventh attempt on average targeting tight windows. Despite those miscues, Ole Miss’s QB sports the SEC’s 2nd-best First Down+TD Rate and Yards/Attempt. Plus, he projects to have a top4 Depth Adjusted Accuracy, Interceptable Pass Rate, and Explosive Pass Rate on a 16.9 average depth of target that only can be topped by Daniels. While obviously you’d like your top performer to display better precision on these attempts, Corral presents far less concerns than his contemporaries despite being a little rough around the edges.