SEC StatCat's Top5 First Down Passers for 2021

There’s a saying going around, the best 3rd Down offenses are offenses that avoid 3rd Down the best. Though some teams still aim to establish the run to the dismay of the analytics community, plenty of others are starting to see the light by passing more on early downs, especially on firsts. Rather than pigeon-holing passing games into do or die situations, play callers allow for a more open approach that on average gains more yards. The earlier they are gained, obviously the better. Plus since first and ten is the most standard down and distance in football, these snaps do a great job of helping establish an expected level of play. While things definitely can change, here are the SEC’s top5 First Down passers returning for 2021. 

5. JT Daniels

Georgia traditionally has been one of the most run-first teams on early downs within the SEC. But when JT Daniels was handed the reigns in Week 9, the Dawgs passed on over half of their first downs in meaningful minutes. Despite exhibiting palpable potency with his style of play that aimed to work deep, Daniels was relatively whatever within the SEC last year. His 40% First Down+TD cracked the top5, but JTD finished ranked the the double-digits in Success Rate, Interceptable Pass Rate, and Uncatchable Pass Rate. That said, most fans will flock to his 12.8 yards/attempt that holds the conference’s silver medal ahead of 2021. Either way you slice it, his profile amongst other SEC returners deserves to be included on this list. 

4. Max Johnson

Talk about another conference first-year that was underwhelming to start a set of downs. Max Johnson was just a face in the crowd among his conference contemporaries but behind some decent downfield throws and preventing turnover-worthy plays, he earns the 4-spot. Johnson’s Success Rate only ranks 8th ahead of this fall but he projects a top5 Depth Adjusted Accuracy, First Down+Td Rate, average depth of target and yards/attempt. Plus, his bottom line would’ve been unquestionably better thad he not suffered from a backbreaking 11% Drop Rate in these spots. Though the freshman failed to standout in 2020 on firsts, he’s a more-than-dependable option based on his modus operandi. 

3. Matt Corral

Matt Corral was blessed with a renovated scheme that prevented him from shouldering too much of the load on early downs. Behind one of the SEC’s most RPO-oriented offenses with plenty of play action, it was more common for the Rebels to turn to the ground than take to the skies on firsts. That said, Corral was pretty reliable in this environment. Though his 47.7% Depth Adjusted Accuracy finished 10th within the SEC last fall, he owns at least the 4th-best Success Rate, First Down+TD Rate, Explosive Pass Rate, and Yards/Attempt. Only two returners sport a less preferable Drop Rate. So even though his ball placement is so-so, that element hints plays were left on the field and Corral could make a jump in these spots with improved accuracy. 

2. Myles Brennan

To start a set of downs, Myles Brennan executed LSU’s offense pretty well. With the Tigers’ newfound pass-first zeal on first downs, he rocks a top3 average depth of target, yards/attempt, and Explosive Pass Rate amongst returners. Plus, his Success Rate, Depth Adjusted Accuracy, and First Down+TD Rate all hold the conference’s silver medal ahead of this fall. The longer throws led to an uncatchable attempt on every seventh throw on average, but his Interceptable Pass Rate finished under 5% and cracks the SEC’s top5 for 2021. These downs buoyed a good amount of Brennan’s bottomline. As wonderful as he was to start a set of downs, he was a battered, lost soul on thirds prior to his injury.

1. Harrison Bailey

By all means, bring on the hate for this selection. Harrison Bailey typically showed his age during his limited playing time as a freshman. But the numbers really, really like what he brings to the table as a first down passer. He might be prone to check downs feasting on attacking underneath throws to space, but the results are in a class of their own ahead of next season. While boasting the SEC’s best Success Rate in 2020, his 65.9% Depth Adjusted Accuracy% finished second. Along with those two aforementioned metrics, Bailey's First Down+TD Rate is tops amongst returners. Yes you can hate on the wonky sample and the 6.81 average depth of target that facilitated his workload. But, his first down results are simply the best the SEC has to offer at this point in time even if he might start the season on the bench.