2021 Vision: Corral vs. Daniels 

Who ya got? It's a simple question but often a sports debate staple. Especially in the SEC where it just means more, polite discourses frequently become passionate shouting matches. Spewing stats and situational traits laced in favoritism and bias rarely go anywhere unless it's a true slam dunk case. Otherwise, each camp becomes more entrenched on their respective side. Still, fat chance fanatics will give up on one of their most beloved offseason pastimes. 

With three upperclass departures, the QB1 debate has taken centerstage.Though there are a few dark horse candidates including Bryce Young, Myles Brennan, and Max Johnson, most are fixated on the obvious two candidates: Ole Miss’s Matt Corral and Georgia’s JT Daniels. By both the traditional stats and advanced analytics, each presents tantalizing traits that very well could result in taking home some trophies by year’s end. 

So without wasting more real estate setting up this basic premise, let’s see how these guys stack up in regards to their overall production, “floor” metrics, under pressure, and a few other interesting scenarios ahead of 2021.

Corral owns the best QBR of any returning college quarterback. For my money, that’s a pretty big “GFY” to dissenters who clamored for John Rhys Plumlee to be Ole Miss’s starter last fall. Even though Plumlee’s electric legs popped on film, the offense wasn’t special at the end of the day thanks to his inept passing skills. That’s precisely why former OC Rich Rodriguez kept turning to Corral; the kid can pass. Though his 2019 season was volatile, the Rebel presented pretty serviceable advanced stats and even forecasted as a top5 passer within the conference for 2020. As we know, the Lane Kiffen and Jeff Lebby’s guidance enhanced that projection as Corral overly finished inside the SEC’s top3 for the majority of the season. Though a sturdy RPO Throw Rate ensured easy targets, Corral completed over 70% of his passes and cracked a Yards/Game average well over 300 yards. With those benchmarks in addition to his worth metrics being buff, the Rebel is pretty easy to like on paper. Averaging over an interception per game wasn’t ideal, but let’s remember 11 of his 14 miscues occurred in two games. Alabama was the only opponent to beat Ole Miss who didn’t pick off Corral. Even with those two coffee-stained teeth ruining his otherwise dashing smile, folks are starting to stalk the fires regarding his 1st round potential for next April. Missing Elijah Moore will undoubtedly sting, but the Lane Train will ensure Corral will stay on the right track. 

When Daniels transferred to Georgia last summer, it was a polarizing move. ex-Wake Forest onager Jamie Newman was already in the fold and was hyped up as a Heisman candidate leading Todd Monken’s first offense Between the Hedges. But as a former five-star, many believed JTD would eventually be a great fit despite UGA’s yearning to increase vertical passing. At USC, Daniels went deep at an average rate but only flashed against bad defenses. As a Trojan, he commonly operated by the adage “take what the defense gives you”. He snatched easy underneath routes to space and often had to be goaded to throw deep. This is where I’ll remind you Daniels had two future professional pass catchers in Michael Pittman and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Yet, the young QB struggled to bring value. According to PFF, his last season as a full starter, Daniels sported a -0.41 Wins Above Replacement, which earned the illustrious ranking of 129th in the country. Still, he had a camp of backers who believed he could produce in Athens. After a surprising opt-out and a couple of flameouts, Daniels got his chance. Expected to bring results, he certainly delivered. The Bulldogs’ previous two QBs rocked two of the highest Uncatchable Pass Rates in the SEC; so it wasn’t hard for Daniels to immediately show what he brought to the table. But unsuspectingly, deep passing production was the element that fully restored Daniels reputation. Ditching his nickel and diming ways in lieu of Monken’s verticality, JTD won all four of his starts and enters 2021 with the highest Yards/Attempt in the Power5.

Despite transitioning into new schemes last year, our two quarterbacks clearly showed positive progression. With that element thrown out the window and each offense running back the same style of play, they are expected to continue to boost their bottomlines. On the surface, both Corral and Daniels enter 2021 with fairly similar traditional metrics. There isn’t much separation between the duo’s QBR, EPA/play, or Yards/Attempt. Corral naturally logged more volume playing in an up-tempo offense starting for the Rebels wire to wire. But, the impact Daniels had on his offense was palpable even if some of his traits are still raw. For the people who love assigning team wins to QB starts, the Bulldog posted a perfect clip down once he was inserted into the lineup. Either way you slice it, Corral and Daniels each have a strong case for honor of QB1 entering this fall. 

Overall

Even if the traditional stats presented a clear frontrunner, failing to look beyond them would be mightily foolish. Though mainstream and basic, those box score staples rarely enlighten fans with context. And without that beacon, a quarterback’s true value is rather vague. 

Down-to-down, Corral was the more consistent passer per his overall numbers. Daniels had the slightest of edges in Yards/Attempt and Predictive Points Added/play (an off-shoot of EPA by collegefootballdata.com), but the Rebel dons the conference’s top Success Rate and First Down+TD Rate amongst returners while holding the silver medal in terms of accuracy. Only Myles Brennan tops those two metrics. In addition to those trumping JTD, Corral also has the preferable Interceptable Pass Rate. About a fifth of these passers’ attempts occurred on screens or RPOs, but Georgia was much more keen on stretching secondaries deep. 

This tactic was a double-edged sword towards Daniels’ numbers. I’ll touch more on it later, but JTD threw it 20+ yards more often than any other SECer; his clip trumped the next guy in line by about five percentage points. While also being the highest figure within the SEC ahead of this season, Daniels’ 12.7 average depth of target was tops in 2020. Though JTD’s targets managed to come down with his shots at a hearty clip and pad his potency, he’s previously lackluster arm strength reappeared and failed to buck my concerns about his aerial acumen. The vast majority of his deep balls were off-target, which killed his depth-adjusted numbers. With that in addition to the volume, his entire profile was affected by this phenomenon; so keep that in mind throughout. Daniels’ raw Accuracy% remains average within the conference, but only Bo Nix and Harrison Bailey logged worse Depth Adjusted Accuracy clips. Daniels poor deep accuracy could very well improve, but I remain bearish (and yes I watched the spring game; but either way I’d advise not reading too much into those kinds of performances). 

While it appears Corral edged out the Bulldog, I would be remiss if I didn’t bring up this little ditty: on throws beyond the line of scrimmage but short of 20 yards downfield, our two quarterbacks each own an Accuracy% of 66.7%. In fact, Daniels’ Depth-Adjusted Accuracy clip thwarts the Rebel’s 63.5% to 59.5% in this context. Though it won’t erase his deficiency driving the ball deep, you’d have to be a straight up id to dismiss those returns. That said, Corral donned a favorable Success Rate, Interceptable Pass Rate, and Uncatchable Pass Rate in these spots despite commanding a higher Drop Rate. For what its worth, each delivered a 49.3% First Down+TD Rate.

Passing Floor

While those overall figures are illuminating, a passer can still be a fraud thanks to his scheme. Some can benefit from dishing the ball behind the line of scrimmage to a future All-Pro while others are throwing to future Enterprise employees. Plus, no one is drafting a passer based on his ability to complete screens and RPOs. The dropback game, even with the game’s evolution to mobile QBs, is still the bee’s knee’s, kiddos. NFL offenses still require dudes to operate within structure, on time, and inside the pocket. Though one’s upside is rarely contained to solely functioning as a pocket passer, clean + dropback attempts often help set one’s passing “floor”. This exercise intends to answer the question, “At the very least when conditions are perfect, how good of a passer is this guy?” Follows of my work know, I’ve already written about the major returners in this context. So, I’ll try not be repetitive. But, I still wanted to whip out our two passers and see how they stack up in this regard. 

Our findings more or less reflect these passers’ overall numbers. Corral tips the scales with his consistency and accuracy and Daniels comes out on top in regards to potency. Without outlets for gimme catches, both saw their ball placement figures worsen. Each fall outside the conference’s top5 in terms of raw Accuracy% and Uncatchable Pass Rate in these spots. However, both remain among the best of the bunch in Yards/Attempt, Explosive Pass Rate, and First Down+TD Rate. No SECer experienced a bigger leap in the latter in this context than Daniels. When examining his floor from his time as a Trojan, JTD presented a bizarro resume compared to his output as a Bulldog. Despite projecting elite down-to-down accuracy, a low ADOT, little explosiveness, and average consistency, Monken bastardized Daniels into playing with more zeal at the expense of his precision.  Often aided by plenty of protection to allow UGA’s vertical-patterns to develop, he rocks the conference’s best Explosive Pass Rate on clean+dropback attempts ahead of 2021. Yet, no SECer turned in a lower Depth Adjusted Accuracy%. Corral’s such Success Rate only looked up to Mac Jones and Kyle Trask last year, which should be praised considering his top-notch value stats and high average depth of target. But his abundant play action usage in these spot can’t be ignored. No conference QB put up a higher such figure than his 40.3% clip. For comparison, Daniels only used it on 23.5% of his clean+dropback throws. Though Corral was still strong without it, that tactic certainly inflates the Rebel’s returns, which makes one wonder just how high his floor really is if he’s dependent on schematics manipulating defenders off their marks.

Under Pressure

Though results on pressured attempts are volatile and not the best forecasters for future performances, no one wants a passer that consistently crumbles in the face of adversity or isn’t up to the task of making plays out of structure. Once again, our two quarterbacks performed fairly evenly as throwers under duress. On the surface, Corral appears to have the edge across the board with the exception of his Interceptable Pass Rate. But Daniels’ Drop Rate implies his receivers left more plays on the field. In theory had those catches been made, the gap between the pair’s Success Rate, First Down+TD Rate, and Yards/Attempt would conceivable be lower. Interestingly enough Corral’s and Daniels’ Uncatchable Pass Rate and average depth of target are nearly identical in these spots. Circling back to turnover-worthy throws, JTD didn’t log a single one across his four starts when pressured. Naturally, that will be a hard task to replicate over the course of a normal season. But, Georgia fans have to be pleased he’s not prone to tossing the ball into harm’s way. With or without the drops, both Corral and Daniels are my top two pressured passers returning for 2021. Considering the theme of this article, that take might sound redundant. But with the exception of JTD’s aforementioned Interceptable Pass Rate and Corrals Explosive Pass Rate and Y/A, none of the duo’s other stats earned the top spot. While this all could change for better or worse moving forward due to all the variables involved on pressured attempts, backers of these two have to like they didn’t wilt under duress last fall.  

Deep (20+)

To reiterate, Daniels threw deep on average more than any other SEC passer last season. But despite his proclivity to push the ball downfield, his Deep Accuracy% fell into the conference’s bottom3. Dropping dimes might not have been his thing, but he at least gave Georgia’s pass catchers a stab at this attempts. His 22.2% Uncatchable Pass Rate cracked the SEC’s top5 last fall. Only one passer coming back dons a lower clip. For what it’s worth, his predecessor finished in the bottom5 in that regard. And again, the Bulldogs mostly came through on these opportunities down the stretch. But while JTD finished inside the top3 amongst returners in Adjusted Completion%, TD Rate, and Yards/Attempt, Corral bested Daniels across the board with the exception to his wonderful Uncatchable Pass Rate. By the result-based metrics, the Rebel is the premier bombardier within the conference for 2021. And to further rub the Bulldog’s nose in it, Corral’s Deep Accuracy% more than doubled Daniels’ clip. 

Intermediate (11-19)

Without his ho-hum howitzer delivering duds deep, Daniels’ resume instantly solidifies. Midrange attempts were arguably the best part of his game last year. No one in the conference bested his Intermediate Success Rate, Completion% or Yards/Attempt. Plus, his such Accuracy% cracked the conference’s top5. Of dudes with at least 20 such attempts, only Mac Jones rocked a lower Intermediate Uncatchable Pass Rate. But, these throws weren’t without occasional lapses. Of his nine total interceptable passes last year, four occurred on his midrange attempts. In addition to this dangerous tendency, Daniels’ scores hardly occurred in this manner. With only ten on the year, his tuddys were more likely to come via a homerun. In the end, his TD-to-INTA ratio was a deplorable 1:4. On the other side of the coin, Corral’s was almost 2:1. Despite that, the Rebel was closer to the conference mean than you would have preferred last year. Without that awful golden ratio biffing the bottomline, Daniels easily has Corral’s number in the midrange game. Most of his result-based metrics in addition to ball placement figures best the Rebel’s. But, I’d be lying if I said that crappy 1:4 ratio was no big deal. 

Short (<10 yards)

You shouldn’t need me to tell you that short passing lacks sex appeal. But hitting a guy in stride or square in the numbers is vital for timing offenses to thrive and YAC-designs to work as intended. Even the slightest adjustment to an attempt can be the difference from an explosive gain or a contested deflection. The pair’s metrics are fairly comparable for the most part, but the Rebel’s Success Rate on throws ten yards or less downfield dwarfed Daniels by nearly 15 percentage points. In fact, the Bulldog finished with the conference’s 2nd-worst clip among passers with at least 30 short attempts; only teammate Stetson Bennet put up a lower figure. So, that might be more of a Georgia problem than a reflection of Daniels’ underneath decision making. For one, Monken’s vertical scheme isn’t really designed for yard after the catch opportunities. Secondly, both his Adjusted Completion% and Depth Adjusted Accuracy% earned the SEC’s silver medal in 2020. A West Coast passer thru-and-thru, the Mater Dei product originally cut his teeth on the short stuff. But, these completions just didn’t beat situational goals as frequently as they needed to. 

Situational Splits

Of course, not all snaps are created equal. Situation, areas of the field, and down and distance have a distinct affect on how the game operates; and therefor how passers function within their schemes. In this section, I broke out three separate situational (early downs, 3rd downs, and red zone) to see if our guys stood out or stepped back in any way. Early downs generally compose an offense’s normal plan of attack. Whether on schedule or a little bit behind the chains, these snaps reflect how apt a passer can be avoiding stress from manifesting within the ranks and keep his team from facing too many of those dastardly 3rd downs. While often on-off situations filled with unique looks and variables, executing on the money down is still expected even if it’s not exactly sustainable. How many close ball games can you recall where taking care of business on thirds played a crucial role in the outcome? Furthermore, maximizing one’s chances in the red zone helps a passer can certainly helps display value. Capping a drive with a tuddy instead of settling for three points will always be a desired outcome inside your opponent’s 20-yard line. Though full of singular variables like passing on 3rd downs, it’s another area where you’d rather be good than bad despite being theoretically elastic week-to-week.

After compartmentalizing the attempts, Corral was the more dependable option in each spot. Again you can point to Daniels longer throws as to why he was less efficient, but the numbers present a clear winner. Last year, only Mac Jones produced a preferable Adjusted Completion% on first or second down to Corral's clip. Yet, the Rebel failed to crack the SEC’s top5 in terms of Accuracy, Depth-Adjusted Accuracy, and Success Rate in these spots. But amongst the returners he’s still in pretty good shape directing a clip of the latter well over 50% while nearly being on-target on two-thirds of his early down throws. Despite finishing right behind Corral in Adjusted Completion% on these downs, Daniels other returns fell below the conference average last year. The Bulldog was in great shape to finish as the SEC’s prime passer on the money down before failing to convert on any of his nine 3rd down attempts in Georgia’s bowl game. His Success Rate plummeted from a sterling 72.2% to 48.2%. Prior to the Sugar Bowl, no SECer challenged his such Adjusted or normal Completion%. Corral, on the other hand, was consistently at or near the top of the conference rankings in these spots. Despite having his own numbers move backwards after Ole Miss’s bowl game, he only finished behind Kellen Mond in Accuracy%, Jones in Success Rate, and Feleipe Franks in Adjusted Completion%. His stabilizing figures will be hard to replicate, but not every quarterback displayed that dependability. Neither Corral and Daniels brought much to the table inside the red zone last year. Both finished under the SEC mean in our three chosen metrics. While Corral was at least “Jeff Fisher mediocre”, the Bulldog finished inside the bottom3 in red zone Success Rate and Accuracy%. Before moving on, this is where I’ll remind you a certain LSU QB in 2018 was unequivocally the conference's worst passer in this area of the field. One year later while taking home every piece of hardware in sight, he ended his college career as one of the best in the country. 

Dropback Distribution 

Before parting, I wanted to examine how these two passers performed in the dropback game from sideline to sideline. Daniels was near or at the top in terms of Yards/Attempt regardless of area. But upon digging deeper, he still has a ways to go in terms of concocting consistency in this context. As you might guess with a vertically-oriented pass game, a good deal of Daniels’ attempts were directed outside the numbers. Only Jarrett Guarantano and Luke Doty topped his 30% makeup, and his Success Rate was good enough for the SEC’s 4th-best last year. But, Daniels finished as an average passer in terms of delivering an accurate throw per attempt outside the numbers. Behind the conference’s best Adjusted Completion%, Corral finished as the conference's runner-up in regards to his Success Rate and Accuracy% attacking this area. 

Both of our passers sent the plurality of their dropback attempts between the numbers and the hashes. Over a third of their total attempts met this criteria. But each finished with a below average Accuracy%. While more precise in comparison, Corral also was helped out by his environment per a top4 Success Rate targeting this spot. While his final results are fine, Corral and Daniels both need to step their games up in these spots. Considering between the numbers and the hashes are their favorite spots to target, you’d like our QBs to at least finish on the right side of average with their ball placement. 

Corral was his worst self throwing between the hashes. With a below-average Success Rate and a bottom5 Accuracy%, his 4th-ranked 12.8 Y/A appears to be crooked. Plus, his 8.2% Interception Rate (four across 49 attempts) was one of the four worst within the conference last year. By results, Daniels shined between the hashes even if his Accuracy remained lacking. But despite a bottom4 clip, he commanded the conference’s top Yards/Attempt (18.5), TD Rate (16.7%), and Explosive Pass Rate (41.7%) throwing towards the middle of the field. Keep in mind, however, he only had a dozen such tries last year. Based on his ball placement, these figures could be due for some regression if Daniels fails to progress in that department this offseason. 

My Take

Though close in a number of areas, I’m giving the honor of QB1 right now to Corral. Along with logging more snaps, volume, and entering his 3rd-straight season as a starter, most of his analytics compare favorably to Daniels’ figures. If nothing else, you want an accurate passer, and the Rebel has shown to be the better option at this point in time. This precision led to more completions, consistency, and situational wins, which allowed his offense to function at a better rate. Georgia’s attack is potent and capable of scoring on any snap. But until Daniels fixes his woeful deep ball placement, I cannot in good conscious sign-off on him no matter how commendable the rest of his game is entering this upcoming season.