Four Offensive SEC Trends (and Three Offensive Concepts) That I Like 

Sometimes when you chart 11,000 offensive snaps over the course of the season, things can blend together and substantial takeaways can be murky. Being too close to the data can distort the larger scope at play and cause me to overlook an apparent trend staring me in the face. Plus quite honestly when the season is flowing, I don’t have time to monitor such things as fascinating and illuminating as it is sorting through the numbers. 

But with the season over and since I’ve had a chance to catch my breath, I’ve been able to dedicate more time digging through the numbers. After exploring some hunches my tired eyes picked up on, I noticed a few noteworthy tactical trends taking place in the SEC that might be of some interest. 

Motion

Motion usage can be somewhat divisive. Some offensive minds think wasting a potential blocker or downfield target in this manner is a cardinal sin. Others believe motion, while effective at helping a speedster or athlete create positive inertia towards the perimeter, pigeonholes an offense. Orbit motioners, for example, probably won’t be working downfield in any capacity and a defense can adjust accordingly. A third group, the motion zealots, are all about testing defenses and obtaining as much pre-snap information as possible. Thanks to these zealots finding success with that doctrine, more and more have followed suit. Regardless to which camp you find yourself in, motion usage is on the rise in the SEC.

As you might guess based on the differing opinions on the tactic, there’s risk-reward to both avenues. Each motion type serves its purpose. The GOAT Bill Bellichick even offered his thoughts on the matter earlier this fall HERE. Point blank, motions tip coverages and help offenses either create new angles or help generate momentum towards a vulnerable areas of the defensive alignment. Every single motion type I chart (pre-snap motion, jet motion, Orbit motion, and shifts) has seen increases year-over-year within the SEC. 

For the uninitiated, here’s a brief rundown of each motion type. Pre-snap motion is when a player changes his alignment before settling somewhere else within the formation. Jet motion is a flat, lateral path taken on by a slot or flanker across the QB’s face. Orbit motion is a long, looping arc around the backfield toward the other side of the center. Shifts are like presnap motion but two people realign (predominantly 2 TEs changing formational strength in this conference). While Jets and Orbits snap the ball when the motioner is moving, that’s not the case with the others.  

Pre-snap motion has increased from 13.7% to 16.8%, jet motion from 6.17% to 10.1%, orbit motion from 1.79% to 2.29%, and shifts from 0.64% to 1.57%. These aren’t marginal year-over-year increases. 

Alabama’s offense is the poster child for this movement. PUN INTENDED. Steve Sarkisian has been a believer in motion since returning to Tuscaloosa and certainly taken it up a notch in 2020. The Tide’s pre-snap motion rate increased 10 percentage points, jet motion ticked up three points, orbit motion inched up two points, and their shift rate went from a bottom5 clip to a league-leader. With the collective speed at his disposal and his underlying offensive mentality of effective balance, it makes perfect sense to utilize plenty of motions and make opponents stress about angles in both facets. Sark has even been on record calling his attack a “motion offense”. 

Outside of Alabama, only two other SEC offenses used pre-snap motion on a fifth of its snaps in 2019. This year, five teams met that criteria. Only three offenses sported a double-digit jet or orbit motion rate last fall. In 2020, it became six and five, respectively. Since the conference-wide shift rate increased about 250% year-over-year, I think you get the idea those were way more common than they had been previously. 

The question now becomes is this a one-off instance or more to come. Sark will take his talents to Austin, Texas as the latest big name hoping to pull the Longhorns from the muck of mediocrity. So Alabama probably will see a fall-off in that regard next year. Georgia and Missouri, the SEC’s 2nd and 3rd-most presnap motion offenses, both featured new play callers with both expected to keep their schemes in place. Auburn has always been a jet motion team under Malzahn’s guidance, but there’s a new face on the Plains. Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss appear to take over the SEC’s crown in that regard. However, Arkansas and Missouri weren’t too behind the Rebels using that tactic. Plus, those two offenses will likely keep up their shared love for orbit motions as well. There’s evidence for motion usage to remain healthy in this conference, but I don’t like making definitive statements in months away from summer practice. 

Early Down Passing

If you happened to not pay any bit of attention to LSU’s offensive renaissance in 2019, let me let you in on a little secret: flipping the script from being one of the SEC’s most-averse early down pass offenses to one of the most devout was the single-most important tactic for modernizing its scheme.

While the old-school belief of “establishing the run” in order to set up a passing game is still a notion plenty of play callers cling to, analytics have shown that’s not the smartest way to play. Shucks, even Nick Saban appears to have come around on that front. The average pass nets more than the average run. Of course, there are exceptions. But, a middling quarterback’s Yards/Attempt usually trumps a top-tier running back’s Yards/Carry. Going out of your way to accept lower returns to start a set of downs just isn’t wise. And again, the best third down offenses are offenses that avoid third down the best. 

The SEC is traditionally a running conference. Even beyond the "four yards and a cloud of dust” mindset, the conference’s best offensive players have usually been running backs. So it makes sense with team’s trying to get their best player the ball. But, things change. Despite the conference’s perception and the fact there is a higher number of talented rushers than passers, eight SEC offenses saw a preferable early down Passing Success Rate in comparison to its run counterpart. Another win for the diehards of the dropback doctrine. 

With the influx of some new play callers and incumbents recognizing the upside, the SEC’s cumulative early down pass rate has increased this season from 47.2% to 50.5%. But of course, that figure can be influenced by the score margin as opposed to gameplan. Once a team has a comfortable lead they’re more likely to run;  if they’re in a hole, taking to the skies is usually the preferred course of action. 

So to take it one step further, I examined how the conference’s pass rate in these spots looked through the lens of 1st Quarter play calling when the scoring margin was two-scores or less. If a team was really pass-first, these are the instances where they’d come out guns a’blazing in theory. For three straight seasons, both the conference’s cumulative first down and early down pass rates have increased. Even omitting Mississippi State’s Air Raid that logged a raw clip in the low-80’s, the SEC’s first down clip from 2020 improved by a percentage point year-over-year. Despite the upticks, the conference’s first down and early down pass rates this past season were 46.9% and 48.6%, respectively. Teams still turned to the ground the majority of the time. But, it’s encouraging to see offenses lean into more efficient tactics. 

In this applied parameter, passing has undoubtedly bested running on early downs within the SEC since 2018. The conference-wide Y/P trumped the such Y/R by at least 2.2 yards and 2 percentage points in terms of Success Rate in that span. The gap of the latter this past year is the widest gap yet (43.6% Rushing vs. 48.5% Passing). The differential was even more stark to start a set of downs where throwing the ball has birthed a clip over 50% the last three years peaking with a 52.4% Success Rate in 2020. 

Generally speaking, teams passed more. But the Air Raid coming to the SEC was the main driving factor rather than some kind of dramatic philosophical shift. Looking at raw early down pass rate regardless of margin or quarter, only three teams passed at least half of the time in 2020 compared to six last fall. So, I was a bit taken aback offenses still are a little reluctant to come out slinging it despite our findings. Still, things are inching the right direction as overall passing within the conference has increased for the second consecutive season having logged back-to-back seasons with a SEC-wide pass rate over 50%.

Targeting Backs

Let me me say this from the onset: targeting dudes out of the backfield remains to be the least efficient position group on the surface. Most teams rely on these guys to act as safety valves, checkdowns, or tertiary reads when they aren’t fielding volatile screen targets or helping absorb the pass rush. But despite these returns being less preferable than throwing the ball to inside or outside receivers, the SEC experienced year-over-year gains in both Success Rate and Y/A when directing the ball to RBs or FBs. With those achievements, offenses have dedicated more passes their way, which requires us to do some more digging. 

The best time to target backs is on early downs when there’s some leniency in the threshold for success. With defenses play back to protect the sticks, underneath patterns to backs are far more fruitful than any other down, which is why the  plurality of these targets occurred on first downs. In back-to-back seasons, 40% of this position group’s targets have been in those spots. 

Overall two years ago, backs were targeted on 13.3% of pass attempts for a 37.4% Success Rate and 6.25 Y/A — seven points and 1.25 yards below the cumulative conference mean. A fifth of 2019’s 724 targets to backs were categorized as a checkdown or “Texas” concept (a high-lo featuring a RB angle and a post or corner by a complimentary pass catcher). Buoyed by Clyde Edwards-Helaire and LSU’s efficient scheme, these patterns actually topped 2019’s positional output to the tune of a 39.3% Success Rate and 6.53 Y/A. But regardless of the pattern, Joe Burrow and John Rhys Plumlee were the only conference QBs with significant snaps to don at least a 50% Success Rate throwing to RBs or FBs. 

In comparison, outside and inside receivers sported 48.9% and 45.3% Success Rates, respectively, last fall. Both had a Y/A at least 1.2 yards better. In short, these targets provided much more value. Before moving on, this bears mentioning: if a RB or FB aligned out-wide in empty or another formation type, I categorized them as a different target position. So if CEH was lined up as an X-receiver and was thrown the ball, he wasn’t charted as a running back. 

In 2020, backs’ target share ticked up to 15.7%. With far more passers seeing at least half of these throws find success, the SEC’s cumulative Success Rate and Y/A increased to 41.4% and 6.35, respectively. About 17% of these attempts were on screens, which sported a dismissible 33% Success Rate. Checkdowns and “Texas” concepts, on the other hand, once again helped balloon the overall output. While accounting for a 20% share in 2019, that clip shot up to 32% this fall. These patterns put up a 42.9% Success Rate and 6.53 Y/A. Yes, these figures are improvements. But they still finished well below the conference’s cumulative mean thanks to outside and inside receivers statistical dominance. The SEC-wide Success Rate and Y/A this season were 46.9% and 7.79, respectively. 

Again, how this position group is utilized obviously has a hand in the bottom line. For the most part, backs deal with a rigged deck as pass targets. Frankly, the degree of difficulty of turning a pass at or behind the line of scrimmage into a successful attempt is more challenging than doing the same off a downfield target. And since those low-reward attempts make up a good amount of their chances, there’s no wonder why other position groups look more preferable in comparison.

But when you take out these “doomed” routes, you can see the value backs as receivers offer as true threats through the air. Omitting screens, swings, checkdowns, and flat routes (which totaled 75% of the group’s 2020 targets), RBs and FBs combined to rock a sturdy 9.69 Yards/Target, 49.7% Success Rate, and 11.1% TD Rate. All of these trump the metrics outside receivers (X/Z) produced within the SEC this past season. Perhaps a one-year spark, but there’s no getting around the ingenuity of some of the conference play callers. 

LSU and Alabama come to mind in using backs in interesting ways; namely the RB Sail/Scissor pattern that comes up in the red zone once in a blue moon. Plus, the Tide produced a few big gainers off Leak/throwback patterns with the back sneaking downfield. Florida took a big step this year with RB Rubs and RB Switches with wheel routes. Mississippi State’s Air Raid utilized forward “pitches”, Trails, and Sticks as wrinkles to its base pass schemes. While all are steps in the right direction to fulfill Steve Sarkisian’s dream of exploiting backs through the air, other play callers need to evolve their tactics beyond rinky-dink outlets to ensure this position group is set up for success. Simply increasing their volume of chances won’t cut it. 

More Verticality on RPO Route Tags

This trend plays off the previous idea that yards (and success) are easier to come by when you limit the amount of targets behind the line of scrimmage. By now, Run-Pass Options are nothing new. I mean if you really want to get technical, these bad boys have been around since the QB bootleg was creating avenues for passers to race around the end or throw a downfield strike in the 1920’s. For modern play callers, these designs function like the triple options of old with a give, keep, and pitch element. But instead of a lateral, a receiver will run a route tag to stress a key defender either to space or with numbers. Playing off its roots, bubble and tunnel screens were predominately the go-to tags for many of the first RPOers at the collegiate level. After all, what is a bubble screen if not a long-ass forward lateral? 

Despite some nifty innovations, usage within the SEC appears to have plateaued. The conference-wide RPO Play Rate has finished at or around 22-23% the last three years. In that span, passers are simply dedicating less of their attempts towards those designs. After a 15.5% RPO Throw Rate in 2018, that figure within the conference has since dwindled to 13.1% and 12.6%, respectively, the last two seasons. Moreover, offenses are slowly starting to incorporate more verticality in these designs to maximize their value. While “death by 1,000 paper cuts” used to reign supreme, there’s been an increased emphasis on unlocking explosiveness in recent years. Despite the year-over-year average depth of target on RPO throws slightly shrinking from 3.22 to 3.02 yards, only 66.4% of these attempts traveled less than five yards — 2.1 points under last year’s total and the lowest figure in at least three seasons. 

Bubble and tunnel screens actually experienced increased usage year-over-year, and that isn’t to say these targets weren’t fruitful. After all, these outlets are designed to always get the ball when the offense has some type of advantage on the perimeter unless a passer goes rogue or is ignorant of the read. So, they typically produce good numbers. When putting these returns up against other options, the question now becomes opportunity cost. The past three seasons (2018, 2019. 2020), targeting RPO routes five yards or less downfield generated Success Rates of 59.5%, 52.8%, and 54.1% with respective Y/A of 6.38, 5.95, and 5.94. Pretty good right?? 

Despite the added difficulty with longer throws, SEC passers didn’t see a major drop-off in terms of securing success. In fact this past season, the league-wide averages were the best showings in three years. In terms of Success Rate since 2018, SECers posted figures of 54.8%, 51.2%, and 58.8%. The shorter RPO throws were more “consistent” at helping manage down-and-distance. But where the verticality naturally came in hand to help conference QBs was in terms a bang-for-buck potency. In 2020, the average Y/A amongst conference starters was 7.92. On RPOs with a ADOT six yards or more, that shot up to 9.18. Since 2018, SEC QBs have sported a Y/A preferable by over a yard versus their overall clip. 

Moreover, this value comes in handy when moving down the field, playing situationally, and logging key completions. Though short RPO throws undoubtedly helped pad stats from College Station to Columbia and delivered stability, these attempts saw the league average First Down+TD Rate worsen in comparisons to its overall counterpart (as in total output, not just RPO throws). Looking at the table below, longer RPO throws are certainly rewarding the teams that are leaning into featuring them more. Doing the quick math, you can see the average passer increased his such clip by ten points.

While it’s easy to pin a lot of these returns on the rise of glance posts and slants, their Y/A and First Down+TD Rate have shrunk for three consecutive seasons — but still very respectable at 7.92 and 47.2%, respectively. The value reaches a breaking points like you’d come to expect. Despite having an orchestrated one:one ball, deep RPO routes like fades, skinnies, post, and streaks deliver subpar Y/A, Success Rate, and First Down+TD compared to their normal dropback figures. Less than a third have worked over the last few years. 

Guz Malzahn departing the Plains is already a good start to shift the conference away from bubble and tunnel screens in lieu of more threatening downfield routes. And based on the potency they provide, it remains to be seen just how popular these tweaks will become across all levels of the great game. 

Three Offensive Concepts On the Rise

I saved my favorite trend for last. It’s not so much a trend as me shedding light on the fact offenses have started to hone in on three concepts that I happened to really like. 

Great a confusing match-pattern assignments and two-deep coverages, Switches are simply designs that ask for the inside receiver to work an outside route and an outside receiver to do the opposite. Switches include Scissors (corner+post), Vertigo (switching verticals), “Swirls” (switching curls), and Whirls (wheel+curls). Wheelie Switch, however, has become the SEC’s favorite switch. Consisting of a wheel and post/dig combo, this deep pass concept has been seen in various forms across the conference. Florida and others have dedicated more tries to RB Wheelies from nub or trips sets. A handful love pairing a wheel with double posts. But most are just fine running this combo in its traditional form. 

With less snaps, fewer pass attempts were logged within the SEC this year. Despite that, Wheelies fielded 18 more targets year-over-year. Its play share increased from 0.81% to a healthy 1.04%. While only about a third of this concept’s attempts found success in 2019, Wheelie sported a 45% clip this fall on a sturdy 11.8 Y/A. Most deep pass concepts do not yield such consistent gains. In comparison, Switches as a whole only have a 36.9% Success Rate; All Verts is around 29%. 

Mesh has been a go-to manbeater for numerous offenses over the last couple of decades. While the pattern itself is nothing new, everyone (and I do mean everyone) in the SEC runs the Kelly Mesh — a somewhat modern adaptation to the standard Rub concept. Named for the coach that helped popularize it in both college and the professional ranks, The Chip Kelly (or in my vernacular just Kelly) Mesh consists of the core intersecting drag routes, a RB wheel, a playside spot overtop the drags, and a malleable route whose tag can vary. Others might refer to this as “Spot Mesh”. 

Ten more Kelly Meshes have been targeted year-over-year and its play share has inched up from 0.74% to 0.98%. While okay last year with a 46.1% Success Rate and 6.29 Y/A, over half of the concept’s targets this year have worked despite a marginal increase in Y/A. Along with its concept group, Rubs, Kelly Mesh sees most of its targets on third down. Only Inside Zone Reads have a higher play share than Rub Variations on the money down within the SEC. This year, 44 of Kelly Mesh’s 99 attempts occurred in those spots. But, that’s also where the look put up its worst returns when broken out by down. While designed to be a manbeater, it still takes a beat to work, which invites defenses to overwhelm the patterns empty protection and alter the QB before an outlet presents itself. But despite Kelly Mesh being its lesser self on thirds, its 47.6% Success Rate is over ten percentage points better than the average clip. 

As prolific as LSU’s 2019 offense was, there seemingly weren’t many tactics teams could copycat and expect significant results Day 1. But, one seldom-run play of theirs certainly started popping up more this fall across the SEC. The Tigers famously streamlined its run game into either IZ Reads or Duo Dives that season, but Y-Insert was far and away their most effective rush concept. I mean when you averaged 11.1 yards on any concept, there’s a good chance it delivered nice efficiency. No other concept with at least a 1.5% play share matched Y-Insert’s 75% Success Rate. LSU wasn’t the only offense that gave this look some love; but thanks to its execution on the big stage, the rest of the league took notice. 

Using the lead blocking element of the gap play Iso and spread elements, Y-Insert is a interesting change up to split zones. While the line blocks these like they would any normal zone, the off-set TE or fullback will fire against the flow and seal the backside — creating a hard edge or arcing onto a backer if there’s a read element. Y-Insert plays with that notion of misdirection but sends the TE through the line as a lead blocker while the line sets the gap. All but a handful of Y-Inserts plays have either been read options or straight RPOs. An obviously darling from 11 personnel — the go-to grouping within the SEC — Y-Insert allows teams to stay spread but feast on underpopulated boxes with a hard-nosed gap scheme.

Year-over-year, Y-Insert’s play share has almost doubled from 0.54% to 1.02%. Last year’s 7.13 conference-wide Y/A was heavily influenced by LSU’s otherworldly clip. Y-Insert, however, saw less than half of its tries work situationally. Even though offenses haven’t been as potent on a per carry basis, the concept’s cumulative Success Rate has earned the extra reps. Despite a 5.38 Y/A, Y-Insert’s Success Rate is preferable by 3.4 percentage points to last year’s 47.1% clip.