2020 Vision: Vanderbilt
2020 Vision: Vanderbilt:
Despite hardly any positive momentum and an athletic department in shambles, Derek Mason was allowed to attempt to redeem himself in 2020. Being a defensive specialist, the Commodores stand to get better on that side of the ball year-over year. That said, it would be pretty hard to do much worse as they finished either last or second-to-last in most defensive stat categories in SEC play. Offensively, however, no SEC team can challenge their lack of depth, potency, or potential heading into this year. Nationally last season, the Commodores were bottom10 in Expected Points Added margin, bottom2 in EPA/play, and were the worst team in the country in EPA/pass. Largely the conference's worst team, there's a fine chance Vandy could be the worst conference team of the last decade. In this preview, you see where Vanderbilt's key returners stand relative to other SECers, important stats for them to improve on both sides of the ball in league play, and just how difficult their schedule looks to be in the eyes of ESPN's SP+ Ratings.
Passers:
JUCO transfers Jeremy Moussa, Danny Clark , and true freshman Ken Seals will duke it out for the honor of leading the ‘Dores’ offense in 2020. In league play, no SEC offense sported a worse Overall or Passing Success Rate, Explosive Pass Rate, or Yards/Attempt than dear old Vandy. For good measure, Vandy’s Pressure Rate, Points/Play, Touchdown Rate, and 3rd Down Conversion Rate also sat comfortably on the conference's floor. The deck is highly stacked against whomever wins this job. Not to mention, no Power5 team is seeing players opt out at a rate quite like the Commodores.
Jeremy Moussa was a prolific passer in the junior college ranks. He averaged over 350 yards and tossed 37 touchdowns, which helped him share the co-offensive player crown in his league. Stylistically, he reminds me of UK’s Stephen Johnson, who was a similar type of player and a former JUCO QB himself. Moussa can move, but he won’t anchor any run game. If the semi-move to the spread last year was a glimpse of what's to come, Derek Mason and Co. should go all in to make it work with Moussa. None of their passing options are really prepared to run their heavy-set pro scheme sans the ability hand the ball off. Moussa has the best day-one potential for me and this offense. But Chaffey College and Riverside City College aren’t Alabama and Georgia. Just because he looks the part on film doesn't mean he'll even be a backend starter in this league.
Danny Clark originally signed with Kentucky but spent last season at Copiah-Lincoln CC where he was overly a mediocre passer. He only completed 51% of his passes on a 7.1 Yards/Attempt. He’s a lefty with a slow, sweeping motion. He’s kind of like the poor man’s Matt Leinart. Obviously with a low Completion% in the JUCO ranks, Clark general inaccuracy projects to be even worse against SEC defenses.
True Freshman Ken Seals is a product of a Texas-spread passing game. He was a top-20 pro-style prospect by Rivals and was a Mr. Texas semi-finalist for whatever that is worth. Looking at the circumstances, throwing this kid to the wolves seems irresponsible. But if his arm can flash in camp, maybe Vanderbilt can start laying the groundwork of a future foundational piece.
Catchers:
This offense found a way to render tight end Jared Pinkney and receiver Kalijah Lipscomb useless last year. No matter how much potential certain pass catchers might posses, it’s moot without a competent passer. Nine of the Ten ‘Dores that saw double-digit targets last season saw below a 36% Catching Success Rate. The team’s Uncatchable Pass Rate was 21.3%. Looking at the murky outlook at the QB position, more dismissible stat lines for the majority of their pass catchers are probably in the future.
Slot receiver Cam Johnson was Vanderbilt's most successful option last fall. Mostly as an underneath receiver, his 9.38 YAC average is the 4th-best amongst SEC returners in league play. Though his 42.3% Success Rate was a little below-average, it was far better than the rest of Vandy’s guys. That’s essentially the gist of his outlook; slightly below the mean, yet better than his teammates. A good amount of his targets cam via RPO outlets. It seems Vandy is leaning more into the spread, which will benefit Johnson based on his workload last year.
James Bostic and Chris Pierce will work on the outside. Neither had north of 30 targets nor saw a third of their of their targets result in success. Pierce was the more downfield option. Over his 28 targets, his ADOT was 13.9 yards. Corner routes were his most targeted pattern. Of Vandy’s returners that saw at least 10 targets, none owned a worst Yards/Target than Bostic’s 4.31 clip. Sure seeing six uncatchable chances across 26 targets will hurt anyone’s output, but he dropped three passes in his small sample. Amir Abdur-Rahman is also in the mix to get some snaps as an outlet receiver.
Ben Breshnahan will hold down the tight end position. Mostly a blocker in heavy sets, he started to work more as an outlet last year. He commanded 19 targets and hauled in 7 of his 12 catchable chances with two created receptions. 11-personnel has taken over college. So this unit will be needing at least one guy to step up and provide a multi-faceted option in this manner. Breshnahan appears to be the only guy that can fit that bill as of right now.
Rushers:
Keshawn Vaughn was Vanderbilt’s best player. He’s gone and the guys left to pick up the pieces don’t look too inspiring. Keyon Brooks took a good amount of lumps during his freshman season. I don’t know many first-year backs that can do much with a 1.0 rush yards before contact average against the might of SEC defenses. He was gobbled up incessantly behind less-than-spectacular blocking upfront. The yards he earned came hard. His 42.2% Broken Tackle Rate shares the top spot amongst conference returners. But all in all, his 3.67 Yards/Carry is a bottom3 clip amongst returners. Only a third of his carries resulted in situational success. He had just as many carries go for 10-plus as attempts that experienced defensive contact behind the line and a gain was made. Though the outlook isn’t promising, holding his own after contact is at least some solace Brooks offers.
Jamauri Wakefield’s injury in Week 1 last year obviously opened the door for Brooks to get experience. While a so-so runner, his depth is sorely needed. In 2018, Wakefield finished as the ‘Dores’ most successful runner with a pedestrian 44.3% clip while accounting for over a fifth of their carries. In SEC play, however, his Success Rate dropped to 39.7% into the bottom10. Wakefield isn’t a bull of a back. If he doesn’t have cushion he won’t give you much. In 2018 SEC play, his Broken Tackle Rate and rush yards after contact average are both in the bottom8.
Glancing at the O-Line:
Barring any more opt outs, Vanderbilt should return four starters year-over-year on their OLine. Left to right, that projects to be Tyler Steen, Dan Dawkins, Grant Miller, Jonah Buchanan, and mystery player. It should go without saying, but I am going to scream it: THIS UNIT HAS TO BE BETTER IN 2020. Vanderbilt sported the worst Havoc Rate allowed by over 4 percentage points and were the only SEC offense to own a Negative Play Rate over 11% in conference play. No line was worse at curbing pressure. With tissue paper blocking resulting in plenty of penetration, the Dores barely averaged over a yard before contact on their rush against verses SEC defenses. Seeing over a quarter of your passes suffer from either a hurry, sacks, INT, deflection, or QB hit is very worrisome. So is allowing a TFL, negative YBC clip, or a fumble on nearly 40% of their rush attempts. With brand new passers and backs needy of some cushion, Vanderbilt has a recipe to be one of the worst teams in recent memory if their offensive line cannot elevate their games.
Key Offensive Stats in SEC Play:
Vanderbilt’s offense was downright horrific in 2019. If they aren’t careful, they could be even worse this year. Last fall against SEC defenses, the Commodores were either worst or 2nd-worst across the board. There’s no use to lay it all out and rub salt into the wounds. For their sake, however, I hope that can manage to don a decent Touchdown Rate and Explosive Pass Rate. Asking this offense to show vast improvements down-to-down would be too much. It would require too much consistency. Vandy needs to try and capture magic with volatility and potency. After all, those are the elements that helped the James Franklin Era find some success.
Key Defensive Stats in SEC Play:
Vanderbilt’s defense was just as much as a letdown as their offense. They were either last or 2nd-to-last in Defensive Success Rate, Yards/Play, Explosive Play Rate, TD Rate, Havoc Rate, Sack Rate, rush yards before and after contact, and Yards/Game. They managed to sport a decent 2.04% Takeaway Rate in league play, which fell right smack dab in the middle. They also put up a serviceable 24.4% Pressure Rate that ranked 6th. Altering pockets did just enough to create extra possessions. But of course, that overly didn’t amount to much. Still all else considered, the 'Dores will be lucky to replicate those metrics in 2020. Extra tries and flustering quarterbacks might be their best shot to win some ball games.
Though the ‘Dores obviously have miles to go to turnaround their defense, if they can improve their 3-and-Out Rate and Explosive Play Rate, their margin of error should increase. Barely a quarter of their defensive possession forced a 3-and-Out. They need to do a better job of stopping folks before they get going. In SEC play, the ‘Dores had the 2nd-worst Defensive 3rd Down Success Rate. While a slow offensive pace played a part, Vanderbilt’s offense averaged the second-fewest plays/game. This usually translated to their opponents living on the field. To further prevent the wear and tear, Vanderbilt’s defense has to do themselves a favor and stifle opponents on the first set of downs within a series. Also for what it's worth, 75% of winners the last two years have won the explosive play battle with at least one SEC team involved. Wishful thinking.
Vanderbilt's 2020 Schedule:
Vanderbilt enters the fall with the SEC's 2nd-hardest schedule only behind Arkansas according to ESPN's SP+ Ratings. Since they aren't set to face the Hogs and can't play themselves, the Commodores are denied the luxury of padding their slate with the worst team in each division. Their first two games are as hard as anyones with top15 foes Texas A&M and LSU. Both of their offenses are top15 with both of their defenses being top25. What follows is Vanderbilt's easiest stretch of their season. The two weeks before and after their bye week feature the only four teams on their schedule that ranked outside the preseason top35. After that point, however, the 'Dores last month consists of the SEC East's best teams, all of which rank in the top25 the in SP+ with top25 defenses. Closing the year at Georgia is also a nice kiss of death. No offense was less successful in SEC play last year as Vandy and they get to go out with a bang against the best defense in the country.
Despite the low-level optimism set by their over/under win total, the SP+ doesn't think Vandy will win a game this season looking at head-to-head projections. In fact, their closest projected margins were losing to Ole Miss by 14 and South Carolina by 15. The metric's season simulation, however, figures they might be able to win one game. But Vegas heavily weighted the under in the betting odds. With -180 odds on under 1 win, only Mississippi State's under offers a worse payout among conference under/over totals by the current odds. Still, looking at their schedule that might be easy money. Vanderbilt's offense opens the year ranked in near the national floor in the preseason SP+. With eight opponents rocking top26 defenses at this point in time, taking the under here might be the safest bet around even if the payday might be muted.
Before I soldier on, I probably should explain what the SP+ Ratings are a little bit. Defining the SP+ in a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. ESPN's Bill Connelly's metric is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. That is important to remember. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise. Using the initial ratings, let's check out how Vanderbilt's schedule stacks up.
WEEK 1:
Vanderbilt @ Texas A&M: Projected Margin Texas A&M by 35
There’s a good bet any game Vanderbilt plays in this season will feature the most lopsided margin of the week. Per the SP+, the Commodores are set to lose their first game by 35 points. Looking at the preseason projections across the conference, this game owns the 2nd-largest margin. Vanderbilt’s offense looks to be one of the worst in recent memory as it starts the year in the bottom3 in that metric nationally. TAMU is top15 on both sides of the ball and is led by one of the better quarterbacks in the conference. Texas A&M struggled to create explosive gains in 2019. But Vandy could be just the opponent for the Aggies to work out the kinks. In SEC play last year, one out of every six plays on average was either a 10-plus yard run or 20-plus yard pass for Vandy’s defense. No other team was worse in that regard. On paper, the ‘Dores are simply pitiful.
WEEK 2:
LSU @ Vanderbilt: Projected Margin LSU by 27
This game is likely to have a similar result to last year’s blowout in Nashville. While there might be concerns about Myles Brennan and how soon the Tigers can get going offensively, Vanderbilt virtually has no proven dependability from any offensive skill player. While Tiger fans will groan having only the 13th rated offense to start the year, Vandy’s comes in at 127. And I shouldn’t need to remind you about the ‘Dores’ porous defense. Though the SP+ thinks it improves year-over-year, it will be no match against LSU’s playmakers. Vandy might be able to get some touchdowns like last year, but it’s hard to justify any scenario where this baby is close.
WEEK 3:
South Carolina @ Vanderbilt: Projected Margin South Carolina by 17.5
This is one of the more winnable games for both teams. Sure the Gamecocks are obviously the favorites, but the 17.5-point projected margin by the SP+ is the Commodores’ 2nd-lowest all year. The metric believes Derek Mason will get some improvement out of his defense. So if the Gamecocks are still overly muted offensively, the ‘Dores might be able to steal one akin to the Missouri game last year. With not much talent in their ranks, Vandy’s best methodology to win is to keep things low-scoring, close, and gritty. Unfortunately, South Carolina doesn’t have game-breakers that can offset that at this point in time. Remember, their Explosive Play Rate against conference defenses was the 2nd-worst in 2019. While SCar’s defense should be able to prevent a bottom3 offense in the SP+ from besting them, this team cannot overlook the desperate ‘Dores ahead of back-to-back games versus Auburn and LSU.
WEEK 4:
Vanderbilt @ Missouri: Projected Margin Missouri by 19.5
Likely featuring the SEC East’s two worst teams, each will view this game highly. For Missouri, it’s the only game outside of their matchup with Arkansas where they’re favored in the initial SP+. For Vanderbilt, it’s one of three games where their projected margin of defeat is less than 20 points. For the 127th offense, expecting to find success against a top20 defense might seem unreasonable. Yet, the Commodores managed to upset the Tigers last season playing small. Missouri’s offense isn’t too far off from Vandy’s as it too starts the year ranked in the triple-digits. But considering how pathetic Vanderbilt was overly pathetic across their conference slate last year, I tend to agree with SP+ that the Tigers should be able to win comfortably. Still, the ‘Dores will be desperate and get to fly into their bye week after this game. Mizzou, on the other hand, travels to the Swamp.
WEEK 5:
BYE WEEK
WEEK 6:
Ole Miss @ Vanderbilt: Projected Margin Ole Miss by 16.5
This game stands as Vanderbilt’s best chance to win a ball game in 2020 as far as the SP+ is concerned. With its lowest projected margin of defeat of the season and being at home, Vandy will have to hope its defense comes to play in this one. Ole Miss should be looking to shove it down the Commodores’ throat as Vandy was downright disastrous against the run last season in SEC play. But if the ‘Dores can hold their own and force some 3-and-Outs, Ole Miss’s defensive play versus conference opponents doesn’t slam the door shut on this matchup. Even for a seemingly inept offense like Vandy’s, fruitful gains are more prone to occur against a unit that sported a bottom3 Defensive Success Rate, Takeaway Rate, and Explosive Pass Rate against SEC foes last year. But don’t kid yourself; Ole Miss is clearly the favorite.
WEEK 7:
Vanderbilt @ Mississippi State: Projected Margin by 19
As bad as the Bulldogs stand to be defensively, Vanderbilt’s offense looks to be worse. While each such unit is the conference’s worst, Miss State’s D is around the national median and Vandy’s O is near the bottom of the rankings. Furthermore, let’s not act like Derek Mason’s defense is significantly better than the Bulldogs’. For MSU’s top25 offense, the ‘Dores are the only other opponent outside of Arkansas to project a defense outside of the top40. Long story short, wins will be hard to come for Miss State. For them beat their projected win total, games like this can’t be taken for granted. Hosting Vanderbilt, the SEC East’s worst team, at home presents the Bulldogs with of their best chance at securing a victory in the eyes of the SP+.
WEEK 8:
Vanderbilt @ Kentucky: Projected Margin Kentucky by 27.5
After its bye week, Kentucky will have its easiest matchup. For a team set to face Alabama and Florida the two weeks after this game, Kentucky could take it easy and treat this game like a second bye to conserve its strength for those more challenging foes. The Cats defense shouldn’t have much trouble containing the Commodores. And while Vandy’s defense improved in the eyes of the SP+, they averaged the 2nd-worst rush yards before contact in SEC play. That undoubtedly led to the ‘Dores sitting at the bottom of the Defensive Explosive Run Rate rankings. For a run-heavy team like Kentucky, those kinds of stats jump off the screen. Vanderbilt’s offense which enters the year as one of the worst around. So, there’s not too much hope this group can best the ‘Dore’s 33% Success Rate against the Cats from the last two seasons.
WEEK 9:
Florida @ Vanderbilt: Projected Margin Florida by 32.5
After back-to-back road games, the Commodores get to host Florida. In general, moving the ball stands to be a challenge for Vanderbilt. Against the Gators, that will be exacerbated. Top5 in Defensive Success Rate, Yards/Play, Explosive Play Rate, Touchdown Rate, Takeaway Rate, average rush yards before and action contact, and Sack Rate in SEC play last year, Florida has every conceivable advantage against Vandy’s uninspiring offense. While Florida’s D is top3, Vandy’s O is bottom3 in the preseason SP+. Even if Trask gives away a few possessions, the Gators should win this game comfortably. Vandy might be best served saving its energy for its rivalry game against Tennessee the following week.
WEEK 10:
Tennessee @ Vanderbilt: Projected Margin Tennessee by 20
Tennessee’s offense and Vanderbilt’s defense are similarly rated in the eyes of the initial SP+. Nationally, both units close to the mean more than you’d expect, which is not near average SEC standards. But of course, there is massive separation between the Vols’ top10 defense and the Commodores’ bottom3 offense to start the year. While winning the explosive play battle is often vital to Tennessee’s success, this is a game where you don’t need to go searching for stats. Vandy has no offensive play maker and faces a defense that rocked a top5 Yards/Play and rush yards before contact. Plus, whoever the ‘Dores’ passer is will have a long afternoon if the Vols run back their league-leading Sack Rate from last year. Tennessee is projected to win by about three touchdowns as of today.
WEEK 11:
Vanderbilt @ Georgia: Projected Margin Georgia by 40
The 40-point projected margin in this game is the largest of 2020’s SEC slate. Even outside of that nugget, this shapes up to be all Bulldogs on paper. Other than Mississippi State, no SEC team has a less-challenging last two weeks than Georgia. Closing against two of the division’s three worst teams, Georgia’s could be looking towards the post season assuming they play as well as the numbers indicate they will over their 10-game slate. Vanderbilt doesn’t stand to have much of a shot. Though moving the ball stands to be a weekly immense challenge for their 127st rated offense, doing so against the nation’s top defense appears too daunting. It would take a miracle, or at least a half of dozen bounces their way, for Vandy to find a way to compete in their regular season capper.
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