2020 Vision: Tennessee

Jeremy Pruitt looks to have the Volunteers heading in the right direction. With a top10 defense per ESPN's SP+ Ratings, his unit has the potential to bottle up any conference offense on any given Saturday. Though Tennessee's offense is volatile and functions with a razor-thin margin or error, it's competent enough to make the Vols Dark horse contenders in the SEC East. While nearly everything will need to go their way in order for them to reach Atlanta, Tennessee is expected to win  half of its games. As we saw from the Vols down the stretch last year, they'll an awfully hard out for anyone if they can win the explosive play battle and rock a consistent defense. In this preview, you'll see where UT's key returners stand relative to other SECers, important stats for them to maintain and improve on both sides of the ball, and how their schedule looks to shake out with help of the SP+ Ratings. 

Passers:

No stranger to up-and-down play, questionable decision making, or being the scapegoat for an underwhelming offense, Jarrett Guarantano sneakily is one of the better downfield throwers returning to SEC action. His traditional stats will still bore you leave you saying, “So what!?”. But if his play over Tennessee’s back half of their schedule is any indication, it looks like he has finally turned the corner. 

While having outstanding downfield receivers helped him win some 50/50 balls, Guarantano unquestionably was one of the premier passers against SEC defenses last year. In conference play, Guarantano owns the best Deep Completion% and Depth Adjusted Accuracy%, the top 3rd Down Success Rate, Yards/Attempt, and Depth Adjusted Accuracy%, the best Success Rate and First Down+TD Rate when behind the chains, and the top Contested Depth Adjusted Accuracy%, First Down+TD Rate, Explosive Pass Rate, and Yards/Attempt. There’s a lot to love about an output like that. His hardest throws were often his best throws. 

That said, Guarantano still has his flaws. He plays slow…very slow. Coaches have had a hard time speeding up his internal clock or making him comfortable getting the ball out quicker. Even quick pitches off RPOs are troublesome for JG to complete accurately. While play action helped most SEC passers find more fruitful gains, Guarantano is the only returning passer with at least 30 such attempts to see his Success Rate, accuracy figures, and First Down+TD Rate worsen with that tactic. Even when he was playing well over their last six games, Guarantano would have a throw or two that would make you question everything. For some folks, they just cannot get over those kind of plays. But looking at the current crop of SEC passers, his overall profile in league play projects a top5 passer in 2020. Losing two of this three best weapons will make things more difficult. If he can overly hit on more of his challenging throws, however, the Vols will be in a good spot offensively.

Catchers:

Josh Palmer will highlight the Vols’ pass catching group. As their Z-receiver, he should help the verticality of the previous couple of year’s remain. A good deal of his damage took place on intermediate targets. On midrange chances, Palmer racked up the 5th-most yards, and 4th-most catches on the 5th-best intermediate Depth Adjusted Catch Rate and 7th-best Success Rate among conference returners. Just under 45% of his targets occurred in intermediate areas of the field, which is the 2nd-highest rate ahead of 2020. 

In terms of creating catching for themselves, no returner was as prolific in that regard than Palmer. His five by volume and his 15.2% Creation Rate in SEC play basically double the next man in line. As you might guess with those metrics, Palmer was quite good at hauling in off-target attempts. While his overall Catch Rate fails to inspire, his Inaccurate Catch Rate is top10 and his Contested Catch Rate is 2nd-best amongst conference returners. And for a team that finds itself playing plenty of do or die downs, Palmer is one of the top 3rd Down producers returning within the conference with the 5th-most yards and targets with the 3rd-most conversions. 

If Palmer stays at flanker, Ramel Keyton should become this offense’s new X. In his limited 2019 sample, Keyton was very vertical. Sporting a 22.8 average depth of target and 26 Yards/Catch signifies the homeruns won’t be going anywhere within this offense. That all-or-nothing style saw him sport a 33.3% Catching Success Rate across his nine targets last year. USC-transfer Velus Jones Jr and Brandon Johnson are the two most likely inside receivers to see plenty of action. Jones’ stats don’t exactly excite, but the Vols lack depth at receiver. But glass half-full, that means opportunities exist for newcomers to make a name for themselves.

Austin Pope was supposed to start the year at tight end before hurting his back. As the most experienced player in that position group, the Vols will have to lean on even more youngsters to fill out their offensive ranks. Mostly a blocker in their multi-tight end sets in the past, he only logged 7 targets last year for a whopping 21 yards.  Princeton Fant, Sean Brown, Jordan Allen, and Jacob Warren all are in the mix to be a momentary fill-in or season-long starter. Whether outside or inside, the Vols don’t have many dependable faces in the mix just in case Guarantano reverts to his old ways. With a green group of skill players, down-to-down regression is possible, which would be bad news for the Vols’ year-over-year momentum. 

Rushers:

Tennessee has largely operated with a committee system the last two seasons, and there’s every reason to believe that will continue again in 2020. Tim Jordan’s dismissal hurts their experienced depth, but he was overly one of the SEC’s least efficient runners since 2018. Ty Chandler and Eric Gray will be this unit’s front-runners on the ground. 

Chandler is presumed to be the lead back even with Gray’s hot finish to 2019. His traditional stats the last two seasons are pedestrian, but wishy-washy cushion saw a dip year-over-year. In 2018 SEC play, his 3.48 rush yards before contact average was the 2nd-best among back with at least 20 carries. Last year, that figure shrunk to 2.20. While top10 amongst returners, it was easily below the SEC mean. Chandler’s 36.9% Success Rate versus SEC defenses is bottom9, and his 16.9% First Down+TD Rate is bottom3 amongst returning SECers. With a below average Broken Tackle Rate in these spots, his 2.15 yards after contact average is the 6th-worst ahead of 2020. Ironically despite less room for him to work, both of those clips increased from last year even if his traditional numbers slightly deflated. But with two years of showing what he can do, sporting efficiency clips near the bottom of the conference is not a good element for winning ball games. 

Big Orange is giddy for how Eric Gray slashed and gashed the SEC’s least successful run defense to close out the regular season. His heroics in their bowl game also added fuel to his growing fire. Still, over 80% of Gray's rushing yards and all three of his scores in SEC play came from his showing versus the ‘Dores. Overall, that game made up about 46% of his output for the entire year. While I get the optimism, beating up on the only SEC defense that allowed opponents to sport at least a  50% Rushing Success Rate isn’t a good barometer for sustaining excellence. For what it’s worth, Gray’s 2.4 rush yards before contact average in SEC play was right at the conference mean. With a few breakaways, both his 6.51 Yards/Carry and 4.11 after contact average were skewed. If it matters, those figures are both top4 amongst SEC returners. If upside is the tiebreaker between him and Chandler, Gray should win that argument. 

Glancing at the O-Line:

Tennessee returns one of the most experienced OLines in the SEC. With four returning starters year-over-year, most are battle-tested hog-mollies. Despite that and the fact Tennessee arguably has the best lineman in the conference, this unit was rather middling last season. Much of the Vols’ inability to find success on the ground hinged from their line’s lackluster run blocking. I often say this, but it reigns true: it's a lot easier to find fruitful gains with less mess in your path. The sooner a ball carrier is hit, the sooner they’re likely to fall. The Vols sported a bottom5 rush yards before contact average in SEC play, which kept their other rushing numbers near the bottom of the barrel. Their Rushing Success Rate as 4th-worst and their Explosive Run Rate was 2nd-worst. To help, Tennessee often turned to multi-tight end sets to help facilitate things. But that overly tipped their hand that they were itching to run. UT’s line’s strength as a unit was keeping passers clean. While at times their quarterbacks held onto the ball a beat too long or put themselves into a tough spot, Tennessee’s 27.7% Pressure Rate was the SEC’s 3rd-best in league play. For as much as the Vols like to go deep, having adequate time to let plays develop is crucial. Tennessee received a blessing with Cade Mays' immediate eligibility appeal being granted. He looks to slide in and round out the right side of the Vol's line. 

Key Offensive Team Stats in SEC Play:

The two most important stats for the Vols’ offense to maintain against SEC defenses are its Explosive Pass Rate and 3rd Down Success Rate. Tennessee’s offense was overly inefficient. Their Success Rate, Touchdown Rate, Turnover Rate, Havoc Rate, Broken Play Rate, and Points/Play all ranked 9th or worse within SEC play last year. But, winning downfield with field flipping passes and taking care of business on the money down allowed them to skirt by and win with a razor thin margin of error. Losing two of top pass catchers certainly will make winning deep or in the clutch more difficult. But if Tennessee can own the 2nd-best Explosive Pass Rate and convert 45% of their 3rd Downs, they won’t need vast improvement across the board. 

As much as Tennessee’s ground game needs to improve, Tennessee should shore up their efforts on bettering their 13th-ranked 2.75% Turnover Rate and 11th-ranked 29.6% 3-and-Out Rate in SEC play. Sporting opponents extra possessions and making their defense play more snaps somehow didn’t bite the Vols in the ass last year, and running back positive results with those clips is unlikely. If Guarantano has truly turned the corner, turnovers should at least be less frequent. The best 3rd down teams are the teams that avoid 3rd downs the best. The better the Vols can execute on early downs, the more their margin of error will grow. Though Tennessee was one of the more run-heavy teams on 1st and 2nd downs last year, perhaps Guarantano cooks more in 2020. 

Key Defensive Team Stats in SEC Play:

Though the Vols finished with the 5th-best Yards/Play allowed in SEC play, their 57.2% Defensive Success Rate was bottom5. Some areas, like their Explosive Pass Rate, Sack Rate and TD Rate, were elite. But other spots, like UT’s Pressure Rate, Takeaway Rate, and 3-and-Out Rate, were near to conference floor. The later two desperately need to improve to help an offense that constantly is looking for a spark. Plus, those two areas are where the Vols themselves have struggled. Reciprocating that will go a long way in increasing their margin of error. And obviously, fewer downs from their opponents mean fewer chances for them to score. 

In terms of important stats to maintain, limiting how potent opponents are thru the air is paramount. The last two years, 75% of game winners with at least one SEC team involved won the explosive play battle. If less than 8% of their defended passes yield an explosive gain while donning a top5 TD Rate in SEC play, the Vols’ stifling defense could make opponents press more, which could lead to their undoing. Winning the big play battle through the air has been a major trait of Jeremy Pruitt's first two Tennessee teams. So far its allowed him to get the program heading in the right direction. Will that tactic help vault them into the SEC title race in 2020?

Tennessee's 2020 Schedule:

Tennessee enters this fall with the SEC's 5th-hardest schedule in the eyes of ESPN's SP+ Ratings. Yet despite donning a top20 preseason ranking in that metric's opinion, Vegas set Big Orange's over/under win total at 5. But with an even money payout for their under to hit, there is incentive to fade the Vols by the current odds. Tennessee's hardest stretch is from Weeks 3-6 where the Vols travel to Georgia before hosting Kentucky and Alabama. All have top26 defenses, top35 offenses, and are top25 overall. The next most trying stint consists of Tennessee's last month of the season. They'll face three teams ranked 5th to 11th. All of them have top15 defenses and top25 offenses. For the Vols' sake, it's a good thing the Commodores help break up this gruesome stretch. 

The Vols managed to skirt by last season despite finishing in the bottom5 in Success Rate on both sides of the ball. Though the SP+ likes their defense due to their ability to get sacks and prevent explosive passes, Tennessee's offense projects to be the 5th-worst in the SEC. Facing seven top20 preseason defenses will be tough hurdles to overcome if their defense can't come through in a similar manner in 2020. But luckily enough for the Vols, the four teams that stand to own worse offenses than theirs are all on their schedule, which should be easy pickings for UT's defense. Though Tennessee is favored in five contests, the games against South Carolina and Kentucky look to be decided by less than a touchdown according to the initial SP+. The Vols have started slow the last two years, so the Gamecocks could steal an early one. On the other side of the coin, the Vols are single-score underdogs to Texas A&M in Week 8. That's certainly a game to keep an eye on as the season progresses as it good be a game of consistency versus potency. Though these rankings are fluid and will change once the action starts, Tennessee looks to be on the outside looking in regarding the preliminary 2020 SEC East title discussion. 

Before I soldier on, I probably should explain what the SP+ Ratings are a little bit. Defining the SP+ in a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. ESPN's Bill Connelly's metric is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. That is important to remember. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise. Using the initial ratings, let's check out how Tennessee's schedule stacks up.

WEEK 1:

Tennessee @ S. Carolina: Projected Margin Tennessee by 3

Per the SP+, this is the closest game on paper to start the season. With three of the seven games projecting the favorite win by 20 or more points, the field goal-differential is the SEC’s only single-digit margin in Week 1. Both teams are led by their defense. Each units are preseason top15 per the SP+. In SEC play last season, the Gamecocks were overly mediocre defensively and banked on winning the turnover battle. Their Turnover Rate on both sides of the ball were top5. Tennessee was more inclined to focus their efforts on explosive passes. Both offensively and defensively, their clips were 2nd-best versus conference opponents last season. While turnovers help underdogs cover, big gainers help teams win as of late within this conference. South Carolina’s offense was the 2nd-least explosive offense and sported a bottom3 TD Rate. But Tennessee has had notoriously slow starts each of the last two seasons. Perhaps the Gamecocks can snatch a win at home before the Vols find their groove. 

WEEK 2:

Missouri @ Tennessee: Projected Margin Tennessee by 13

This game will be decided on whoever’s offense can outdo the others. Both defenses come in with similar ratings in the initial SP+, but Tennessee’s offense is stronger on paper. With an explosive aerial attack, Tennessee might be able to replicate their game plan versus the Tigers from last year with field flipping plays. Even though Mizzou rocked the best down-to-down Success Rate in SEC play, their Explosive Pass Rate was bottom5 in SEC play. Missouri has loads of questions surrounding its passing game. And while Mizzou's run game returns familiar faces, a subpar line makes it hard to back anything the Tigers have planned offensively. Still, whichever team wins the big play battle will likely be the victors. 

WEEK 3:

Tennessee @ Georgia: Projected Margin Georgia by 13.5

This is another game Georgia could stumble if it’s not careful. With how big play oriented the Vols are, a low scoring rock fight between two defensive teams could be decided on just a couple of explosive snaps. Of course, Georgia’s new offensive scheme could certainly be better than expected. But at this point in time, Tennessee’s defense has the edge in the SP+. One of the big selling points to starting JT Daniels is that he’s a safe, conservative passer. He can be serviceable behind a run-first philosophy. The Vols are all about preventing splash plays. Tennessee sported the 2nd-lowest Explosive Pass Rate defensively in SEC play. On the other hand, their down-to-down Success Rate was bottom5. The methodical approach has the potential to slice up the Vols. Georgia’s top-ranked defense should be able to control the one of the handful of conference offenses that fails to crack the preseason SP+ top50.

WEEK 4:

Kentucky @ Tennessee: Projected Margin Tennessee by 5

With both Kentucky and Tennessee projected to win five games in 2020, this matchup winds up being one of the closest projected margins on each team’s schedules. Two of the last three years, this game has been decided by less than a touchdown. Of course, Kentucky has only won outright twice since 1984 with each of their wins being by a field goal. Kentucky’s stingy pass defense might be able to derail Tennessee’s big play offense, but the Big Blue Wall needs to be on its A-game versus the 6th best preseason defense in the eyes of the SP+. Plus, the Vols averaged the 4th-lowest rush yards before contact last year. Other than Georgia, no defense bottled up the Lynnsanity Offense better than Tennessee. Kentucky was slightly more consistent down-to-down on both sides of the ball within SEC play last year and returns more starters exiting this whacky offseason. They’ll be underdogs nonetheless. Still, this game should be very competitive. 

WEEK 5:

Alabama @ Tennessee: Projected Margin Alabama by 11

Tennessee often banks on winning the explosive play battle through the air to fuel their victories. On both sides of the ball, the Vols placed 2nd within SEC play regarding explosive passes but were bottom5 in overall Success Rate. Maybe the Vols are more consistent by this point, but there’s no doubt they will lean on splash plays to win. The problem is, however, Alabama was the top-ranked explosive team in both facets. Not only does Alabama have the better overall team, they trump the Vols in what they do the very best. Tennessee’s defense at home might make things a little difficult, but the best team in the country is projected to win by about two scores. 

WEEK 6:

BYE WEEK

WEEK 7:

Tennessee @ Arkansas: Projected Margin Tennessee by 15

Tennessee has three “gimme” wins thanks to the likes of Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Arkansas. Everything screams the Vols should have no trouble against the Hogs, but road games deep into the conference schedule are often when teams slip up. And while their play in conference last year was putrid, Barry Odom’s presence has the Razorbacks’ defense not too far behind Tennessee’s offense in the preseason SP+ ratings. Tennessee still has a long way to go to prove their offense is consistent despite its recent potency. The Vols won deep versus Odom last year, which helped secure a late season win. He knows first-hand Arkansas stopping that element needs to be a priority. If Tennessee is forced to grind it out with the Razorbacks on the road, their chances of winning comfortably go out the window. 

WEEK 8:

Texas A&M @ Tennessee: Projected Margin Texas A&M by 2

Tennessee’s gruesome last month of the season begins by hosting Texas A&M in Knoxville. It will be the Aggies first trip to Knoxville in what is set up for for a good one in the eyes of the SP+. Though Texas A&M enters as slight favorites with a more balanced team, Tennessee has the edge in the area that’s helped it win the most the last couple of seasons. While the Vols have the SEC’s 2nd-best Explosive Pass Rates on both sides of the ball, the Aggies owned the 6th-worst clip on offense and the 4th-worst clip on defense. To that point, these two offense operate in completely different fashions. TAMU rocked the highest Pass Rate in SEC play with the 2nd-highest Early Down Pass Rate. They passed early and often but the gains were often small or modest, which resulted in a top4 Success Rate. Tennessee had the 6th-lowest Early Down Pass Rate with a bottom5 Success Rate. Yet of course, they found ways to drive the ball downfield. Overall defensively, its a wash. It’s just a matter of which leads to more points: field-flipping passes or long, sustained drives. 

WEEK 9:

Tennessee @ Auburn: Projected Margin Auburn by 8

Though the Vols won at Auburn two years ago, it will be hard for them to get by the Steele Curtain operating with their small margin of error that they’ve banked lately. Downfield shots might come easier versus average or good defenses, but elite ones are far more stingy on allowing deep passes. The Tigers sat in the top4 in SEC play in Defensive Pass Success Rate, Yards/Pass, and Explosive Pass Rate while dialing up a top5 Pressure Rate. Auburn’s defense is well-suited to get under the skin of Tennessee’s passing game. Big Orange Nation knows Jarrett Guarantano isn’t the best when he has to play faster than his comfort level. Auburn themselves might have trouble creating big gainers with a blah run game and Tennessee’s own proclivity to prevent homeruns. But they stand to be the better down-to-down offense in terms of Success Rate and Touchdown Rate. 

Week 10:

Tennessee @ Vanderbilt: Projected Margin Tennessee by 20

Tennessee’s offense and Vanderbilt’s defense are similarly rated in the eyes of the initial SP+. Nationally, both units close to the mean more than you’d expect, which is not near average SEC standards. But of course, there is massive separation between the Vols’ top10 defense and the Commodores’ bottom3 offense to start the year. While winning the explosive play battle is often vital to Tennessee’s success, this is a game where you don’t need to go searching for stats. Vandy has no offensive play maker and faces a defense that rocked a top5 Yards/Play and rush yards before contact. Plus, whoever the ‘Dores’ passer is will have a long afternoon if the Vols run back their league-leading Sack Rate from last year. Tennessee is projected to win by about three touchdowns as of today. 

WEEK 11:

Florida @ Tennessee: Projected Margin Florida by 6

According to the preseason metrics, this game should settle race between the SEC East's 2nd and 3rd place teams. Obviously, each team controls their own destiny and could very much sit atop the division in a few months. Still, it stands to be a good game. The SP+ likes Florida to win by less than a tuddy. Despite a relatively even turnover battle last year, Tennessee overly floundered in Kyle Trask’s first career start. Florida dominated the time of possession, number of conversions, and quest for yards. The Gators prevented Tennessee from winning the explosive play battle as well. Florida had more 30+ plays and total explosive gains than the Vols. In this one, Tennessee’s best chance to win stands to be a defensive rock fight. Per the SP+, both defenses are separated by less than a point in the preseason ratings. If the Gators don’t face much Havoc, they should win. With a bland down-to-down Pressure Rate, Tennessee’s Takeaway Rate and Pass Havoc Rate were bottom4 in SEC play last year. In order to create more mistakes for Trask, the passer who sported a share of the SEC’s most turnover-worthy throws in 2019, Tennessee has to get him on the move and prevent him from getting comfortable. 

For more information on Tennessee's schemes, scripts, and stats visit the following links: