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2020 Vision: South Carolina
2020 Vision: South Carolina
If South Carolina sports a sputtering offense again, it's tough to tell what will be hotter: Will Muschamp's head or his seat. Though he's been an adequate follow-up to Steve Spurrier, the Gamecocks have unquestionably lost ground within the division in recent years. And if Muschamp finishes below .500 for the second-straight season, he very well could lose his job. The defensive-minded coach has seen just as many of his offenses finish in the top25 as in the triple-digits. Though the Gamecocks can grind it out defensively, a small margin of error with subpar offenses have prevented this program from progressing. South Carolina is expected to sport a pretty good defense once again, but newly hired play caller Mike Bobo has his work cut out for him. In this preview, you'll see where South Carolina's offensive returners rank relative to other SECers, important stats for them to improve and maintain in conference play on both sides of the ball, and how their schedule stands to shake out per ESPN's SP+ Ratings.
Passers:
Ryan Hilinski set a South Carolina freshman passing record in yards and touchdowns, but he overly was one of the least efficient passers within the conference last season. Among the nine SEC passers coming back for 2020 with at least 80 attempts last year, Hilinski was last or second-to-last in Success Rate, Depth Adjusted Accuracy, First Down+TD Rate, and Explosive Pass Rate. Despite having a 7.30 average depth of target, the lowest mark of the returners, he sits in the bottom3 in Uncatchable Pass Rate. Of SEC passers with at least 80 touches last year, only Arkansas' Ben Hicks had a lower Expected Points Added per play.
Hilinski comes in the mold of a typical West Coast Passer. He strives to get the ball out fast and frequently aims short for YAC-oriented patterns. And that was just in the dropback game. In SEC play, he sported the 4th-highest RPO Throw Rate and 3rd-highest Screen Rate among the nine qualifiers. Less than 10% of his attempts traveled 20 yards downfield. Only 18% of his deep attempts resulted in a completion. His general inaccuracy short prevented his guys from catching in rhythm and his below average arm couldn’t hook up with anyone deep with any consistency. Defenses respected the verticality of this offense less and less, which resulted in more crowded boxes. That begat less cushion for their patterns to maneuver and rack up yardage after the catch. These crowded boxes also played a part in their run game’s inconsistency; but more on that later.
Playing in the SEC as a true freshman is no easy task, but Hilinski's numbers and muted style of play don’t offer much optimism. That said, he took his lumps early and could certainly improve with more reps. Graduate transfer Collin Hill, however, has been named the Week 1 starter after an impressive summer. Following new play caller Mike Bobo from Colorado State, he should have a leg up if Bobo wants to run his own stuff and deviate from Bryan McClendon’s staples. But coming off an ACL injury, Hill has durability concerns from day 1. Still for what it's worth his "traditional stats" across his three-year career trump Hilinski's side by side. Hill sports a favorable Completion% (60.6% to 58.1%), Yards/Attempt (7.7 to 5.8), and QB Rating (137.7 to 113.4).
Catchers:
Thanks to the scattershot passing, most of South Carolina’s returning receivers didn’t sport good numbers. Of the seven receivers that saw double-digit targets, six finished with a Catching Success under 37%. None sported a Yards/Target over 6.2. Though a fifth of the Gamecocks’ targets were uncatchable, Hilinski’s 7.51% Drop Rate was the 3rd-highest of the qualifiers. While this unit failed to come through with many explosive gains, SCar’s pass catchers’ 3.3 yards after the catch average was a top5 clip in SEC play last year.
Behind Bryan Edwards, slot receiver Shi Smith was South Carolina’s most-featured pass catcher. No other Gamecocks saw as many as his 17 targeted player deep targets. Slot fades were one of their favorite, albeit infrequent, shot plays. But thanks to the aforementioned inefficiencies, he logged three times as many uncatchable attempts than catches. On all targets, Smith’s 36.7% Catching Success Rate in SEC play was nearly ten points below the conference average as was his 26.6% First Down Touchdown Rate.
Josh Vann’s output was even more disheartening. His 5.08 Yards/Target and 30.8% Success Rate in SEC play are bottom3 clips amongst returners. He was the only conference receiver with at least 20 targets in those games to not secure at least one reception of 20 yards. And while Smith’s 23.3% Uncatchable Target Rate in league play was detrimental towards his production, Vann’s 26.9% clip is the 4th-worst ahead of 2020.
JUCO receiver Jalen Brooks, Xavier Leggette, Chad Terrell, and Dakereon Joyner round out South Carolina's receiving corps. Though part-time quarterback Joyner is mostly an outlet receiver, the rest all donned an average depth of target over 10 yards. Maybe a new scheme will allow one of these dudes to emerge. Randrecous Davis and OrTre Smith opted out leaving this position group even thinner.
Nick Muse at tight end is the most successful returning pass catcher for South Carolina. He was overly a safety valve. Flats composed over a quarter of his targets. Yet, his 53.9% Success Rate was the highest on the team by about six percent. Among returning SEC tight ends who saw at least 20 targets, that clip was good for 3rd best. Still, his 6.08 Yards/Target is the lowest of the position group. Last year, the Gamecocks dedicated the 5th-most targets towards their tight ends within the SEC. All signs point to this healthy volume of targets for South Carolina's tight ends to continue.
Rushers:
None of the three backs vying for the starting running back gig logged more than 23 carries last year. Deshaun Fenwick is South Carolina’s most successful returning rusher. Across this 22 carries, his 45.5% Success Rate and 22.7% Explosive Run Rate led the team. But his small sample was largely influenced by a big game against Vanderbilt’s bad defense.
Kevin Harris sported South Carolina’s best Yards/Carry. He also rocked a 48% Broken Tackle Rate. But like Fenwick the majority of his production was a byproduct of playing horrible opponent. Over 80% of his yards came on his six carries against Charleston Southern. Taking those runs out of his sample, Harris would have a measly 20% Success Rate. Like I hinted above, South Carolina’s passing game’s failure to take advantage of secondaries that crowded the box made the sledding tougher. All six of their ball carriers with double-digit designed runs failed to average over 2 rush yards before contact.
True freshman MarShawn Lloyd had hopes of competing for some snaps but recently suffered an ACL injury and is lost for the year. A 4-star and top5 running back recruit by 247sports, he’s the physical kind of runner the Gamecocks have utilized in recent years. Right now, he’s more of a one-cut runner that likes to get north and south in a hurry. But of course, a year on the mend could alter his trajectory.
Glancing at the O-Line:
The overly crowded boxes South Carolina had to work against allowed them to lean into favoring a power run scheme. The Gamecocks were the only SEC offense where a power run concept was their most repped look. Their bashing, however, didn’t really help create cushion. SCar’s rush yards before contact average fell into the bottom3 within SEC play last season. The little success they were able to capture came predominantly on what their backs could do after contact. While perhaps not the most imposting unit, the Gamecocks line held top4 Havoc Rates in both facets. The were the only team in SEC play who sported a Negative Play Rate under 7%. So while the push was minimal, rarely was it detrimental.
Thanks to Hilinski’s quick trigger, South Carolina was better than most a preventing pressure, and subsequently, sacks. The Gamecock’s 28.9% Pressure Rate was top5 versus conference defenses last year. Preventing Havoc and negative plays is one thing, but generating explosive gains is another. While stacked boxes increased their degree of difficulty, the Gamecocks needs to create more room for their young back to operate in 2020. This unit looks to return three starters from last season. Their right side with Dylan Wonnum and Jovaughn Gwyn will remain intact year-over-year. It remains to be seen where Sadarius Hutcherson lines up, but it looks like it will be left tackle with Jordan Rhodes opting back in. Hank Manos projects to start at center.
Key Offensive Team Stats in SEC Play:
The most important stats for South Carolina to maintain against SEC defenses are its Turnover Rate and Pass Havoc Rate allowed. While replicating the league’s lowest Broken Play Rate would help, limiting turnovers and plays where their passes are disrupted should aid a team largely perceived as an underdog entering this season. If Hilinski or whomever is behind center has to play faster than their comfort level or throw before his guys are open, bad things are likely to occur. And looking how this offense is constructed, it’s not really designed to play from behind or under the gun. Both clips fell inside the top4 in conference play last year. Ball control should be a major aspect to a defensive-led team.
The most important stats for South Carolina to improve against conference defenses are its overall Success Rate and Explosive Play Rate. No need to overthink this. Down-to-down, this offense needs more consistency and potency. Both figures finished in the bottom4 versus SEC opponents last year. But only Vanderbilt was less explosive than the Gamecocks in league play. It’s no wonder why SCar sported a bottom3 3-and-Out Rate and Touchdown Rate with its general lack of ability to move the ball consistently. For what it's worth, the winner of the explosive play battle has won 75% of games the last two years involving at least one SEC team.
Key Defensive Team Stats in SEC Play:
The most important stats for South Carolina to maintain versus SEC offenses are its Takeaway Rate and average rush yards after contact average. While the explosive play battle has lined up with winning, winning the turnover battle has been the biggest factor in helping underdogs covering the last two years. If the Gamecocks can further prevent giving their opponents extra possessions and their defense can provide them with extra chances, their odds of winning (or covering) certainly improve. Being one of the most sound tackling teams allowed the Gamecocks to be a pretty good run defense. In SEC play, their 2.7 YAC average was 4th-best as SCar only missed 20.2% of their run tackles.
The most important stats for South Carolina’s defense to improve versus SEC offenses are its 3-and-Out Rate and 3rd Down Success Rate. The Gamecocks were largely an average defense across the board in SEC play. They ranked between 6th in and 9th in Defensive Success Rate, Explosive Play Rate, Touchdown Rate Havoc Rate, Sack Rate, and average rush yards before contact average. They can largely remain middle-of-the-road and ride a bend-don-break style. But SCar has to play less downs on defense to prevent overall wear and tear. Fatigue is more likely to affect the undermanned team rather than a favorite. Winning more on the money down and stopping folks before they get going will surely allow the Gamecocks to derail their opponents defensively. It’s hard to score points and accumulate yards if your offense is constantly ushered off the field from failing to take care of business on 3rd Downs.
South Carolina's 2020 Schedule:
The Gamecocks enter this fall with the 4th-hardest schedule in SEC play according to the initial ESPN SP+ Ratings. Half of their opponents rank 13th or better overall to start the year. South Carolina's most challenging stretch will be the games around their bye. Though starting with Tennessee and Florida isn't Charleston Southern or Akron, it's not up to the difficulty of facing three SEC West teams ranked between 10th and 13th overall. After that, the Gamecocks could be in position to win three of their last four assuming Georgia avenges last year's loss. Vegas set UGA's over/under win total at 3.5 games. According to the preseason SP+, they are only projected to be favored in two games head-to-head. Despite that pessimism, the metric's season simulation thinks the Gamecocks can get to 4 wins. In three of their matchups, South Carolina is only a touchdown or less underdog with three additional instances predicting them as eight-point underdogs. Obviously, this equates to six of their ten games potentially being decided by one possession. For a defensive-minded coach that likes to make games smaller, that should be music to Will Muschamp's ears.
With a top15 defense, South Carolina could shock anyone. Only three of their opponents have offenses that fall in the same threshold to start the year per the SP+. Speaking to that point of SCar dreaming of making games smaller, their schedule could allow them to do just that and snatch a few extra victories. Their defense ranks higher than five of their 2020 opponents. But their offense was as bland as they come last year. With a new play caller and a lack of weapons, the Gamecocks project to have one of the five worst offenses within the conference. Every single one of their opponents' defensive ratings outrank SCar's offense comfortably. Their margin of error is small, but enough chances across their slate exist for South Carolina to play above their expectations.
Before I soldier on, I probably should explain what the SP+ Ratings are a little bit. Defining the SP+ in a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. ESPN's Bill Connelly's metric is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. That is important to remember. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise. Using the initial ratings, let's check out how South Carolina's schedule stacks up.
WEEK 1:
Tennessee @ S. Carolina: Projected Margin Tennessee by 3
Per the SP+, this is the closest game on paper to start the season. With three of the seven games projecting the favorite win by 20 or more points, the field goal-differential is the SEC’s only single-digit margin in Week 1. Both teams are led by their defense. Each units are preseason top15 per the SP+. In SEC play last season, the Gamecocks were overly mediocre defensively and banked on winning the turnover battle. Their Turnover Rate on both sides of the ball were top5. Tennessee was more inclined to focus their efforts on explosive passes. Both offensively and defensively, their clips were 2nd-best versus conference opponents last season. While turnovers help underdogs cover, big gainers help teams win as of late within this conference. South Carolina’s offense was the 2nd-least explosive offense and sported a bottom3 TD Rate. But Tennessee has had notoriously slow starts each of the last two seasons. Perhaps the Gamecocks can snatch a win at home before the Vols find their groove.
WEEK 2:
South Carolina @ Florida: Projected Margin Florida by 18
Though Florida’s offense and South Carolina’s defense both enter the season in the top15 in the eyes of the SP+, the Gamecocks have way too many holes offensively for me to put much faith in them considering they’ll be up against the preseason’s 3rd-best defense. But SCar’s best chance could be banking on Kyle Trask making mistakes. Though it remains to be seen if that trait was from lack of reps or just who he is, creating extra possession will be crucial if the Gamecocks want to keep things close and potentially win. That said, Ryan Hilinski equaled the same number of interceptable passes by volume as Trask last year with 27. Florida has the better players. If they can avoid playing in the muck, they should be able to coast.
WEEK 3:
South Carolina @ Vanderbilt: Projected Margin South Carolina by 17.5
This is one of the more winnable games for both teams. Sure the Gamecocks are obviously the favorites, but the 17.5-point projected margin by the SP+ is the Commodores’ 2nd-lowest all year. The metric believes Derek Mason will get some improvement out of his defense. So if the Gamecocks are still overly muted offensively, the ‘Dores might be able to steal one akin to the Missouri game last year. With not much talent in their ranks, Vandy’s best methodology to win is to keep things low-scoring, close, and gritty. Unfortunately, South Carolina doesn’t have game-breakers that can offset that at this point in time. Remember, their Explosive Play Rate against conference defenses was the 2nd-worst in 2019. While SCar’s defense should be able to prevent a bottom3 offense in the SP+ from besting them, this team cannot overlook the desperate ‘Dores ahead of back-to-back games versus Auburn and LSU.
WEEK 4:
Auburn at South Carolina: Projected Margin Auburn by 8
On paper, Auburn should have little trouble dealing with South Carolina. The Steele Curtain will likely have no issues keeping such a hapless offense off the field. Furthermore, Auburn forced a 3-and-out on nearly half of their defensive series in SEC play last year. While a third of South Carolina’s drives in such games suffered the same fate, only one other conference team was worse. Though the Gamecocks’ defense matches up well with Auburn’s offense, the Tigers simply have more difference-makers on both sides of the ball. By this time, we should know whether or not Chad Morris’s guidance is working for Auburn’s offense. After three top25 defensive opponents over the first four weeks, this unit’s true colors will be displayed sooner rather than later. This has game has Nooner written all over it. So a slow start could allow the Gamecocks to linger.
WEEK 5:
South Carolina @ LSU: Projected Margin LSU by 12.5
Thanks to the recent roster shakeups, South Carolina will have a fighter’s chance in Death Valley. Led by their 14th-ranked defense, the Gamecocks face the Tigers a week before they play Auburn. With the Bayou Bengals’ high number of departures, LSU’s offense dropped from the top5 to 13th in the SP+ since February. If South Carolina’s toothless offense molds a serviceable identity by this point, things could get interesting. Still, underestimating LSU is a luxury South Carolina certainly cannot afford. Though an adequate defense in a few spots, South Carolina’s ability to prevent explosive passes and generate pressure was on the lower end in SEC play. Myles Brennan with time, should be able to deliver nice results. Expectations for SCar’s offense are one of the lowest in the conference. With lackluster passing and few apparent play makers, the Gamecocks will probably be well-contained by LSUs top25 defense.
WEEK 6:
BYE WEEK
WEEK 7:
Texas A&M @ South Carolina: Projected Margin Texas A&M by 8
Thanks to their defense and the home field advantage, South Carolina will only be one-possession underdogs against Texas A&M. Outside of the two games against the divisional bottom-feeders, this is one of the Gamecocks’ best opportunities to secure a quality win. SCar will be fresh off its bye and recharged for a gritty affair. Both offenses struggled to create explosive gains last year in SEC play. With similarly ranked defenses, it’s fairly certain both offenses will plod their way through the afternoon. Right now, TAMU looks to be the far more consistent option offensively. But, let’s say South Carolina comes out of its off with some new wrinkles or tricks; well-executed shenanigans might be just enough to get past the Aggies. For what it’s worth, Texas A&M’s defense fell into the bottom4 in Explosive Play Rate while South Carolina was more around the middle in conference play. Texas A&M is clearly more talented and balanced. But they’ll need to win the big play battle to prevent the Gamecocks from keeping it close and potentially beating them.
WEEK 8:
South Carolina @ Ole Miss: Projected Margin Ole Miss by 2
South Carolina visiting Ole Miss will sneakily be one of the better games this season as far as the SP+ is concerned. The metric thinks the Rebels will win by less than a field goal. This slim favoritism is due to the implied home field advantage. The league schedule favors Ole Miss as well. South Carolina will be coming off a game versus Texas A&M while Ole Miss exits its bye week. Both teams have limited chances with single-possession margins of victory across their schedules. You know each will desperately want this one. For over/under win totals, this could decide which side of the line these team fall on. South Carolina’s defense stopped the run better than the pass, but they were mostly just okay at it. After all, their rush yards before contact average was the 6th-worst in SEC play. But if there was any defense on South Carolina’s schedule where its toothless offense could find a spark, Ole Miss’s would fit the bill. The Rebels surrendered the conference’s 2nd-worst Explosive Pass Rate against conference foes last year. Over the past two seasons involving a SEC team, the game winner won the explosive play battle 75% of the time. Ole Miss’ speed should be able to create some big gainers for the Rebels, but I’m not sure who is capable of providing splash plays for the Gamecocks before Week 1.
WEEK 9:
Missouri @ South Carolina: Projected Margin South Carolina by 7
South Carolina’s and Missouri’s defenses enter this game essentially as twins as far as the SP+ ratings are concerned. The only level of separation is between their offenses. While both units are among the conference’s worst, the Gamecocks will have the edge. But on any give Saturday with a pair of defenses that yearn for low-scoring rock fights, this game very well could be feature the least points all season. Georgia is an interesting team in this scenario as the Bulldogs face the Tigers the week prior and the Gamecocks the week after these two meet. South Carolina hosting a team they were able to upset on the road last year might make them look past the underdog Tigers. Still with two unthreatening offenses, big plays or turnovers will probably determine the outcome. For what it’s worth, South Carolina’s defense posted preferable Touchdown and Takeaway Rates compared to Missouri’s clips against SEC offenses last season.
WEEK 10:
Georgia @ South Carolina: Projected Margin Georgia by 13.5
Losing at the hands of the Gamecocks last year should have the Bulldogs well motivated to kick ass in Columbia. Not only did South Carolina snatch a win last year, they also set the blueprint for how to stall Georgia’s overly mundane, yet mighty, offense. From that game on, Georgia averaged less rush yards before and after contact and saw both its Rushing and Passing Success Rate dip. If the Dawgs’ new scheme is able to unlock potency, this game shouldn’t be close. Overly a middle-of-the-road conference defense in league play, the Gamecocks allowed the 6th-worst Yards/Pass and Passing Success Rate while offering up a bottom5 Pressure Rate. Last year, South Carolina went all in to stop the run and made Georgia’s passing game win behind the chains. The Gamecocks could hone in on the run game once again. So its extra paramount the Dawgs will have a more threatening downfield passing game to get SCar out of sorts. Thanks to the home field advantage, the SP+ looks for South Carolina to lose by less than two touchdowns.
WEEK 11:
South Carolina @ Kentucky: Projected Margin Kentucky by 7
Before being humbled in Columbia last fall, Kentucky had been enjoying a nice win-streak in this series. Beating teams like South Carolina and Missouri were paramount to UK’s accession out of the SEC East’s cellar in recent years. The Gamecocks have not won in Lexington since 2014 when Steve Spurrier was still in charge. If South Carolina wants to have any chance knocking off the Cats in consecutive seasons, its defense has to out-duel UK’s line and its offense has to find a way to move the ball on the ground. The Cats had no answers for SCar’s outside power schemes last year. Despite sporting a bottom3 rush yards before contact clip and bottom5 Explosive Run Rate in league play, South Carolina was able to get the better of Mark Stoops’ defense. For a game featuring two stout defenses, this game will be old-fashioned and likely low-scoring. A game probably decided on running the ball and total defense, Kentucky is projected to win by a touchdown at home.
Season
TEAM OVERVIEW
PASSING EFFICIENCY
RUSHING EFFICIENCY