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2020 Vision: Missouri
2020 Vision: Missouri
Eli Drinkwitz was brought in to reinvigorate Missouri's program. Things appeared to plateau under Barry Odom despite being in a decent spot on paper. An underwhelming 2019 paired with a tutoring violation with the NCAA was enough for the defensive-minded coach to be dismissed. The young Drinkwitz is thought to be a coach who can get more out of less. Despite the fact last fall was his first year as a head coach, the former Gus Malzahn disciple looks to have the energy to right Missouri's ship. While the previous regime left a brawny defense, only Vanderbilt projects a less-optimistic outlook offensively in SEC play. In this preview, you'll see where key Missouri returners stand relative to other SECers, important stats for the Tigers to maintain and improve on both sides of the ball in league play, and how their schedule looks through the eyes of ESPN's SP+ Ratings.
Passers:
Missouri enters 2020 with uncertainty at its most important position. Their three main QB candidates are Connor Bazelak, Tyler Powell and Shawn Robinson. Robinson has the most overall experience and is the favorite to get the starting nod. Powell, however, saw action in six games for Mizzou last year including one start. Robinson is yet to take a snap for the Tigers. Coming off surgery, Bazelak has an outside shot due to his 4-star pedigree and sturdy showings in his brief stints last fall.
Robinson is the dual threat option. After spending an offseason redshirting upon transferring from TCU, his athleticism sticks out relative to the Tigers’ other passers. Though his passing is suspect, his legs should be able to get him out of some jams and allow Eli Drinkowitz to lean into spread packages. Prior to his shoulder injury five games into the 2018 season, he posted a 60.8% Completion% and tossed 9 TDs to 8 INTs. RPO’s and well-calculated shots would be likely if this is the course Mizzou takes.
Powell sported a disastrous 29% Success Rate last year. Of SECers with at least 20 attempts in conference play, only Vanderbilt’s Deuce Wallace was worse. Even Arkansas’ Jack Lindsey was better in this regard. His 33.5% Depth Adjusted Accuracy% is akin to Ole Miss’s John Rhys Plumlee’s, which is to say is damn near the bottom of SEC returners. And this inaccuracy comes despite owning the SEC’s 4th-lowest average depth of target in league play. More of a rigid dropback passer, he would work best in a West Coast Offense that prioritized short routes with plenty of yard after the catch opportunities.
Bazelak in his limited action put up a 71% Completion% and 66.7% Success Rate; great figures for any quarterback. But a 33.5% Depth Adjusted Accuracy across 21 throws is worrisome. Moreover, Bazelak spent the vast majority of the offseason rehabbing from a torn ACL. It’s unlikely he starts the year behind center due to inexperience and unproven accuracy.
Catchers:
On the outside, Jalen Knox and Virginia Tech-transfer Damon Hazelton Jr are capable playmakers; both are built to go deep. The latter is 6’3 213 pounds and has seized at least 500 yards and 8 TDs each of the last two seasons. His Yards/Catch average the last two seasons would have been top8 within the SEC. Knox sports the 5th-best Deep Catching Success Rate and 2nd-best Yards/Deep Target amongst SEC returners. The question is: does Missouri have a passer that can drive the ball downfield and allow Knox and Hazelton to make the most of their vertical prowess.
Only three Missouri receivers in the history of the program have logged more than Hazelton’s 20 career scores. Each of the last two years, he has scored a touchdown over 70 yards. Both were on 3rd Down tries. The money down also is where six of his eight TDs occurred last year. He can slide right in and make a difference day one for Missouri’s offense. In case you didn't know, the Tigers sported a bottom5 Explosive Pass Rate in SEC play last year.
Knox may have had a Drop Rate in the double-digits, but he was one of the best SECers hauling in tough targets. Only Jaylen Waddle trumps his Inaccurate Target Catch Rate amongst returners. Plus, Knox commands a top5 Depth Adjusted Catch Rate and top8 Contested Catch Rate. But most of Knox’s splash plays occurred versus non-cons. Against SEC defenses, he caught 9 of his 16 targets on a paltry 31.3% Success Rate.
Barrett Bannister will anchor things inside from the slot. He’s certainly not as flashy as Mizzou’s top-two options on the outside, but he was one of the most consistent and successful receivers in SEC play last season. Against conference opponents, Bannister caught 18 of his 21 targets with two-thirds of them resulting in success. Only Waddle and Trevon Grimes don preferable clips amongst SEC returners. But his 7.86 Yards/Target was as pedestrian as they come. Still, he will be needed to help seize modest gains in the underbelly of coverages. Plus, his dependability will be need if RPO usage gets cranked up.
Daniel Parker Jr is presumed to start at tight end despite nearly going blind this offseason. Multiple surgeries were needed to stay off an eye infection, but the consensus is he’s on the mend and ready to get back on the field. His metrics weren’t so hot relative to other returning SEC tight ends. Of the six returning Y-men with at least 20 targets, he’s ranks either 5th or 6th in Success Rate, Yards/Target, Catch Rate, Depth Adjusted Catch Rate, Explosive Catch Rate, First Down+TD Rate, and average depth of target. Though his experience will be needed, more dependability must arise from this spot.
Rushers:
Larry Rountree III and Tyler Badie have run a split backfield the last two seasons, but Rountree has predominately been the lead back. Both were hindered by bad run blocking as each’s average rush yards before contact clip fell into the bottom10 in conference play. With little cushion, neither back found great efficiency. Rountree’s 31.5% Success Rate and Badie’s 30.8% clip were both bottom3 figures against SEC defenses last year. Only about a fifth of these guys’ carries resulted in either a first down conversion or a score, which was far too infrequent.
Rountree dealt with contact better than his backfield mate. But his 2.62 YAC average versus conference defenses is still a bottom10 clip amongst returners. His Broken Tackle Rate was rather average in SEC play as well. He was the more plodding of the two backs. Both is Negative Run Rate and Explosive Run Rate in these spots finished in the single-digits. Rountree’s 3.81 Yards/Carry is just frustrating as hell for a lead back.
As an undersized back, bullying big-bodied defenders isn’t really Badie’s thing. If he can’t elude you in the open field, then he’s toast. Badie only broke 14 tackles across his 65 carries against SEC defenses. No returning SEC running back sported a lower YAC average than his 1.62 clip in conference play last season. But his quickness allowed him to at least be decent snatching 10-plus yard runs. His 13.9% Explosive Run Rate was exactly the SEC average in league play last year. But with a 3.62 Yards/Carry, most of his runs were futile. About 63% of his runs against conference opponents gained three yards or less. Perhaps more spread and RPO tactics will help these backs to regain their old magic. Those things along with Drew Lock’s arm threatening secondaries opened up alleys in 2018, which allowed each Badie and Rountree to have pretty good figures that season.
Glancing at the O-Line:
As you might suspect from their backs’ horrendous rushing figures, Missouri didn’t have a satisfactory blocking last year. With green passers allowing a below average 32.1% Pressure Rate or bottom5 3.45% Sack Rate for consecutive seasons certainly won’t help the Drinkwitz Era start smoothly. And by green, I mean it. Of the 19 lineman on the roster, 14 are underclassmen. For their ball carriers, averaging a bottom4 1.44 rush yards before contact won’t produce many substantial gains considering how forgettable their rushers were after contact. No offense had a less successful ground game than Missouri in SEC play last year and their 37.3% Run Havoc Rate finished bottom3. A big reason why the Tigers start ranked in the triple-digits to in the initial SP+ is due to a lack of faith in this unit. A couple of starters return while an experienced transfer will help anchor the interior of their front. Their starters project to be Mike Maietti, Hyrin White, Case Cook, and Larry Borom with the fifth spot still up for grabs.
Key Offensive Team Stats in SEC Play:
The most important stat for Missouri to maintain against SEC defenses is its Turnover Rate. Last fall, Missouri didn’t overly have a good offense, but at least the Tigers managed to prevent turnovers well. Their 1.81% clip in SEC play was a top5 figure. For a team that will surely need extra possessions to snatch victories this season, they can ill-afford to grant their more-talented opponents extra tries at scoring.
Otherwise, the Tigers' offense could stand to improve across the board. Outside their aforementioned rushing metric shortcomings, Mizzou finished bottom5 or worse against conference defenses in Success Rate, Yards/Play, Explosive Play Rate, Touchdown Rate, 3-and-Out Rate, Broken Play Rate, Yards/Game, and Points/Play. For them, focusing on unlocking big gainers will be crucial to them to hang with some teams on their schedule. Of course, it’s easier said than done. But if Vanderbilt is the only SEC team with a worse TD Rate than Mizzou again, most folks’ preseason predictions about this bunch will likely be dead on.
Key Defensive Team Stats in SEC Play:
The most important stats for Missouri’s defense to improve versus SEC offenses are its Explosive Pass Rate and Sack Rate. Missouri had one of the better defenses last year within the conference. But optics sometimes play apart in a unit’s perception; allowing big gainers through the air certainly hurt Missouri’s. Despite averaging a pressure on 25% of their conference snaps, good for 4th-best, no SEC defense logged a lower Sack Rate than the Tigers’ 4.17% clip. Opponents, in turn, were able to see some of their longer developing pass patterns come to fruition. More sacks could mean less allowed big gainers and sustained drive from opponents. Less explosive gains through the air could allow Missouri to play small and gritty and squeak out a few victories.
Missouri’s defense must maintain is league-leading 64.7% Defensive Success Rate in SEC Play along with its top3 3-and-Out Rate. Solid down-to-down defense and keeping opponents off the field will be crucial for this undermanned team to keep things close on the scoreboard. It’s a very hard task to replicate that kind of success with a coaching staff turnover and against an all-SEC slate, but that will be the recipe for Missouri’s best formula to win ball games. Seeing how this group responds without the guidance of Barry Odom will be interesting. A whole new defensive mindset could redirect their collective focus and there's no guarantee the consistency carries over especially considering the schedule the Tigers drew.
Missouri's 2020 Schedule:
Missouri’s schedule is a rather average one relative to the rest of the conference as far as ESPN's SP+ Ratings are concerned. But if I had to rank it, its the 6th-easiest in the SEC. Though Mizzou plays four of the top5 teams in the conference, hosting Arkansas and Vanderbilt evens out their slate. Still, it's hard to find a team that starts the season with a more difficult sample. After the preseason No. 2 team in the nation comes to town, the Tigers travel to Neyland Stadium then Death Valley. All three are rated top20 overall. Of those three, there are two top15 offenses and three top25 defenses. The Swamp might not be swarming, but victory will still come hard for the Tigers. Then Mizzou has to defend their turf against UK and their top26 defense before they can catch their breath at the bye week. After their likely ass kicking by Georgia, their schedule eases up with some of their more manageable games.
The SP+ simulated them to win only 3.6 games, which is significantly more than their projected head-to-head record that predicts 2 wins. But both the Kentucky and Mississippi State games look to be settled by less than a touchdown and stand to be the Tigers best chances to get to four wins. Thanks to their defense being ranked inside the top20, Mizzou might be able to play some rock rights and steal a couple of extra victories. Stalling the Air Raid or cracking the Big Blue Wall appear to be their best bet. Still, with an offense ranked in the triple-digits in the SP+, wins will be very hard to come by if the Tigers can't score any points.
Before I soldier on, I probably should explain what the SP+ Ratings are a little bit. Defining the SP+ in a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. ESPN's Bill Connelly's metric is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. That is important to remember. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise. Using the initial ratings, let's check out how Missouri's schedule stacks up.
WEEK 1:
Alabama @ Missouri: Projected Margin Alabama by 21
Missouri’s strength is on its defense, which will be immediately tested by the SP+’s best offense. As good as the Tigers’ down-to-down defense was in 2019, they sported a bottom5 Explosive Pass Rate in SEC play. Of course, the Tide manufactured big plays against practically everyone they played last year and return two of the conferences most incendiary receivers. Offensively, Missouri will start the season in the triple-digits in the SP+. Outside of the figuring out who’ll be the starting quarterback, Missouri returns the least successful rushing offense in SEC play last year. While the Tigers might be able to seize some cushion from the defense that allowed the 3rd-worst yards before contact average in SEC play, Mizzou and their inexperienced passers look to be walloped by the scheme that generated the best Sack Rate in 2018 and Pressure Rate in 2019 versus conference offenses.
WEEK 2:
Missouri @ Tennessee: Projected Margin Tennessee by 13
This game will be decided on whoever’s offense can outdo the others. Both defenses come in with similar ratings in the initial SP+, but Tennessee’s offense is stronger on paper. With an explosive aerial attack, Tennessee might be able to replicate their game plan versus the Tigers from last year with field flipping plays. Even though Mizzou rocked the best down-to-down Success Rate in SEC play, their Explosive Pass Rate was bottom5 in SEC play. Missouri has loads of questions surrounding its passing game. And while Mizzou's run game returns familiar faces, a subpar line makes it hard to back anything the Tigers have planned offensively. Still, whichever team wins the big play battle will likely be the victors.
WEEK 3:
Missouri @ LSU: Projected Margin LSU by 16.5
The easy slate for LSU continues as they host Missouri. For an offense that needs to get its passer up to speed, LSU’s first three weeks are crucial if they want to get to a title-contending level again in 2020. And, that was before the recent opt outs. Versus Mizzou, the Bayou Bengals should have no trouble winning. I think most fans will be interested to see how LSU wins. If the offense is still trying to find its footing or the defense is still working through the transition to the 4-3, it might be closer than expected. Despite a top20 defense, Missouri is the 2nd-worst SEC offense with a not-so-good outlook at its quarterback position. While their offensive margin of error is super slim, Missouri’s defense has the potential to hang with the Tigers. But at the end of the day, the home team should rule the day.
WEEK 4:
Vanderbilt @ Missouri: Projected Margin Missouri by 19
Likely featuring the SEC East’s two worst teams, each will view this game highly. For Missouri, it’s the only game outside of their matchup with Arkansas where they’re favored in the initial SP+. For Vanderbilt, it’s one of three games where their projected margin of defeat is less than 20 points. For the 127th offense, expecting to find success against a top20 defense might seem unreasonable. Yet, the Commodores managed to upset the Tigers last season playing small. Missouri’s offense isn’t too far off from Vandy’s as it too starts the year ranked in the triple-digits. But considering how pathetic Vanderbilt was overly pathetic across their conference slate last year, I tend to agree with SP+ that the Tigers should be able to win comfortably. Still, the ‘Dores will be desperate and get to fly into their bye week after this game. Mizzou, on the other hand, travels to the Swamp.
WEEK 5:
Missouri @ Florida: Projected Margin Florida by 22
If Florida’s defense is as good as advertised, there’s no way in hell Missouri’s offense can field a good enough effort to upset the Gators in the Swamp. As the 103rd offense to start the year, the Tigers could certainly improve and be better than expected than their projection. Personally, I’m bearish on that notion with Mizzou previously facing three top25 defenses in their first month of play. But this time, they could be fairly broken-in for the Gators to cruise comfortably. Questions remain on Florida’s rush attack, and this would be a bad matchup. As a top20 defense, the Tigers best bet — like a lot of underdogs facing the Gators— is to entice Kyle Trask into mistakes. But replicating the SEC’s 3rd-best 3-and-Out Rate from last year could also do the trick. Still, the SP+ projects an easy win in the Swamp for the home team due to being significantly better on both sides of the ball.
WEEK 6:
Kentucky @ Missouri: Projected Margin Kentucky by 5
For Missouri, this is one of those games where their defense could put them in position to steal a win as an underdog. The SP+ projects them to lose by less than a touchdown, and UK’s offense is largely perceived as one-dimensional. Plus, the Cats will be on the road after duking it out with the No.1 defense in college football the previous week. As the game right before their bye week, Kentucky could be battered, bruised, and ripe for suffering an upset. Still, looking at the Tigers’ early slate, they should be far more beaten up than Big Blue. Plus despite being the SEC’s most successful defense in conference play, the Tigers were average allowing rush yards before contact, which obviously pleases UK’s maulers upfront. Regardless, the pressure will fall on their offense to find some production. Even if Mizzou holds the Cats to two scores or so, they themselves have to find a way to move the ball and put up points against a top26 defense, which donned a top3 Touchdown Rate in SEC play last year.
WEEK 7:
BYE WEEK
WEEK 8:
Georgia @ Missouri: Projected Margin Georgia by 17.5
On paper, Georgia’s defense should be too much for Missouri’s offense to handle. But if Georgia is hungover from the Florida game from the previous week, the Tigers certainly could surprise coming out of their bye week. Entering the final month of the season, Missouri could be a dangerous team as they have nothing to lose. Likely to have suffered plenty of L’s, I wouldn’t put it past Eli Drinkwitz to pull out all the stops in a game like this. Banking on winning rock fights each week is a brutal way to squeak through a first season, but it’s overly Missouri’s only course of action. Their defense has the capability to contain Georgia’s offense as is. But if Georgia’s run game or pass catchers can generate explosive gains in space, Missouri will probably fold. Despite being the SEC’s most successful defense in league play, the Tigers sported a bottom5 Explosive Pass Rate. More importantly, the Dawgs defense projects to largely stifle whatever Missouri’s offense throws at it.
WEEK 9:
Missouri @ South Carolina: Projected Margin South Carolina by 7
South Carolina’s and Missouri’s defenses enter this game essentially as twins as far as the SP+ ratings are concerned. The only level of separation is between their offenses. While both units are among the conference’s worst, the Gamecocks will have the edge. But on any give Saturday with a pair of defenses that yearn for low-scoring rock fights, this game very well could be feature the least points all season. Georgia is an interesting team in this scenario as the Bulldogs face the Tigers the week prior and the Gamecocks the week after these two meet. South Carolina hosting a team they were able to upset on the road last year might make them look past the underdog Tigers. Still with two unthreatening offenses, big plays or turnovers will probably determine the outcome. For what it’s worth, South Carolina’s defense posted preferable Touchdown and Takeaway Rates compared to Missouri’s clips against SEC offenses last season.
WEEK 10:
Arkansas @ Missouri: Projected Margin Missouri by 11
The “Battle-Line Rivalry” dates back to 1906. Yet, Arkansas and Missouri have only played about a dozen times on the gridiron. It’s a tilt Missouri has dominated in recent years as the Tigers have won four-straight. This was one of the SEC’s most boring games last year. With Missouri’s postseason taken away and Arkansas being guided by an interim coach, it was a game you’d likely snooze through if you were still chocked full of tryptophan from the previous day. As of today, Arkansas and Missouri are unequivocally two of the SEC’s three worst teams heading into 2020. Like last year, this game doesn’t feature exciting matchups or sexy stats. As one of the two games Missouri is projected to win along with being one of the Hogs most winnable games, both teams will desperately want to win this one for future moral. Missouri’s defense will give them the edge day one. But at this point in the season, Arkansas could be better than expected on both sides of the ball. Still, the SP+ thinks they’ll lose by two scores in Columbia.
WEEK 11:
Missouri @ Mississippi State: Projected Margin Mississippi State by 2.5
Mississippi State has two great opportunities to head into the offseason with some positivity. Both of its last two games remain among their most winnable games on their schedule. Per the SP+, the Bulldogs are only favored to win this game and the ones against Vanderbilt and Arkansas. The same is true for the Tigers. With only a projected margin of 2.5 points, this game truly could go either way. On paper, Miss State’s liability of a defense matches up well Missouri’s offense that stands to start the season ranked in the triple-digits. That said, this stands to be the Tigers’ premier opportunity to move the ball looking at the rest of their defensive opponents. But by this point in the season, we’ll have an entirely new data set to help up make our decisions. Still, it reigns true that if Missouri can force the Bulldogs into a shootout, their defense should be better positioned to win down-to-down. But total team strength gives the initial edge to Mike Leach’s bunch.
Season
TEAM OVERVIEW
PASSING EFFICIENCY
RUSHING EFFICIENCY