2020 Vision: Kentucky

Kentucky's football program has historically been a loser. With an all-time losing record, they are often the punching bag within league play. Even a recent legend of theirs, Rich Brooks, left Lexington with a sub-500 record despite taking the Cats to four-straight bowls. Coming off his fourth-straight bowl appearance himself, Mark Stoops is the only Kentucky coach since Blanton Collier was let go in 1962 to sport a non-losing record. Taking on the blue-collar personality of Stoops, the Cats are now a force to be reckoned with within the conference. With a bruising line, gashing ground game, and a lengthy defense, Kentucky might have its best overall team ever. Ironic, Vegas thinks they'll win only of half of its games...In this preview, you'll see how Kentucky's key offensive returners stack up relative to other SECers, important stats for the Cats to maintain and improve, and how Big Blue's schedule looks through the eyes of ESPN's SP+ Ratings. 

Passers:

Fueled by the Lynnsanity Offense, no SEC team was as run-heavy as the Cats in 2019. Getting Terry Wilson back behind center should help the Wildcats regain some balance.  I still suspect UK will continue to overly ground and pound behind their Big Blue Wall, but their Pass Rate against SEC foes should increase; last year their clip was below 38%. 

While his return will certainly aid the Cats, Wilson’s passing the last two seasons has underwhelmed relative to the rest of the SEC. In 2018 of the 14 SECers with at least 50 attempts in league play, Wilson’s 42.2% Success Rate and 45.5% Depth Adjusted Accuracy rated 9th and 13th, respectively. Thanks to the 4th-highest RPO Throw Rate, his 8.47 average depth of target was the 4th-lowest as was his 6.61 Yards/Attempt. Before his injury in Week 2, Wilson’s stats remained uninspiring. His 42.3% Success Rate hardly moved year-over-year, but his 38.5% Depth Adjusted Accuracy dipped. This was due to less RPOs padding his profile. His RPO Throw Rate basically was cut in half, which made his ADOT the SEC’s 7th highest. 

Passing might not be his strength, but Wilson’s athleticism makes him scary for opponents. In theory if he’s 100% healthy, the Cats can pick up right where they left off schematically. Wilson has the gliding speed and the burst needed for the read game and Q-run stuff to gash opponents. But being a more experienced passer than Lynn Bowden obviously opens up the playbook at little bit more. 

Joey Gatewood and Sawyer Smith also might make some appearances. While Gatewood is yet to be cleared by the NCAA, he was Auburn’s wildcat back before transferring. Outside of War Eagle, no SEC offense has donned those formations more than UK. Smith, on the other hand, is more of a pocket passer. Before hurting his wrist, shoulder, and ankle, he looked capable. Still, his overall production was at or near the conference floor in most major metrics by year's end.

Rushers:

Kentucky will likely rock a three-headed running back committee like they did last season. AJ Rose, Kavosiey Smoke, and Chris Rodriguez, all received over 70 touches and complied over 500 yards in 2019. Like a good complimentary backfield should, the trio all have their own specific skills. 

AJ Rose was UK’s primary back. While he found a good deal of situational success in 2018 backing up Benny Snell, Rose was one of the SEC’s least efficient rushers in league play last year. In those games, his 29.1% Carry Share is the 7th-highest among conference returners, but his 32.9% Success Rate is 4th-worst. Plus, his Explosive Run Rate and First Down+Touchdown Rate were each well below the SEC average. That is not a good recipe for winning ball games on the back of your ground game. Rose was the only one of UK’s main rushers to have an average rush yards before contact clip below 2.3 yards against SEC defenses. So that could help explain some of his shortcomings. His 30.8% Broken Tackle Rate in those spots is the 8th-best amongst conference returners. 

Smoke is a silky runner who found his best gains outside the tackles. Of SECers with at least 20 outside carries, his 10.4 Yards/Carry led the conference in 2019. Bowden was second. On such runs, Smoke’s 60.7% Success Rate also holds the top spot within the conference. Against SEC competition, his 2.89 rush yards before contact average across all of his carries was the best clip between UK’s backs. With less mess in his path on average, he didn’t have to bust many tackles. As it were, his 16.7% Broken Tackle Rate in league play is bottom3 among returning backs. Still, four SEC running backs managed to put up at least a 50% Success Rate against conference defenses, and Smoke was one of them. If there’s room around the edge, Smoke tends to make opponents pay. 

After UK’s second bye week last year, Rodriguez's rushing output bested every else’s on the team except Lynn Bowden’s. Across the SEC in that stretch, he was 8th in yards, 7th in Success Rate, and 3rd in Explosive Run Rate. Amongst SEC returners in league play, Rodriguez has a top5 Success Rate with the 2nd-best Yards/Carry, rush yards after contact average, First Down+TD Rate, and Explosive Run Rate. No one can trump his 42.2% Broken Tackle Rate or 2.22 Negative Run rate against SEC defenses. C-Rod is UK’s bruiser. So far, he’s certainly living up to the moniker “Baby Benny”. Rodriguez is one of my guys this fall, and I think he will have a breakout season.

Catchers:

Kentucky arguably has the worst receiving room in the conference. Despite not seeing a target since Week 5, Bowden finished as UK’s most prolific receiver by 112 yards, nine targets, and seven catches. Granted, that kind of thing was bound to happen running as much as the Cats did. But it’s hard to point to any of their guys' numbers the last two years and proclaim optimism especially with a below-average passer likely running the offense. 

Josh Ali is UK’s most notable receiver. Hope is high for him to step up in 2020 within UK’s ranks. But thanks to an overly bad display of throwing, Ali was one of the least efficient targets around. Overall, just under a third of his targets were charted as uncatchable. With so many tries outside of his control, his 4.95 Yards/Target and 36.3% Success Rate were very dissatisfactory. Looking on the bright side, Ali caught 70% of his catchable attempts overall. Plus his 54.8% Depth Adjusted Catch Rate was better than receivers like Elijah Moore and Terrace Marshall Jr in SEC play last season. 

Clevan Thomas will be this unit's swing receiver in the slot. Bryce Oliver and Allen Dailey Jr should round out this group on the outside. Thomas’ role is primarily as a RPO outlet while the other two were more downfield oriented. Still, how their utilized moving forward remains to be seen. But better quarterback play will certainly be needed for these guys to experience gains. All three sported Catching Success Rates below 46.2%; the SEC average was 47.5% in 2019. 

Justin Rigg and Keaton Upshaw at tight end are mostly used as blockers. But Rigg is the Cats 2nd-most prolific receiver coming back with his 12 catches, 137 yards, and 22 targets. Each year, UK’s staff hints at getting their tight ends more involved in the passing game. But for the most part, it’s mostly talk. Still when the Cats get on the other side of their opponent's 50, Eddie Gran has been know to send his tight ends down the seam off a variety of designs. Red zone targets also cannot be ruled out. 

Glancing at the O-Line:

Kentucky’s offensive line is its most important unit. It is also the Cats’ best unit. In order to go all-in like UK did running the ball last year, having a battle-tested front-five that can forge run lanes even when the defense knows what's coming every snap is paramount. Per Pro Football Focus, UK’s four returning starters all are among the top7 highest graded OLineman in the conference. No one tops right tackle Darian Kinnard’s 89.2 grade, which is the best by nearly eight points. Overall, no line generated a better rush yards before contact clip than their 3.31 average. No SEC offense owned a lower Run Havoc Rate allowed than their 21.9% clip. You see why they don the nickname "The Big Blue Wall". 

Against conference defenses, that clip remained the same. But the Cats dropped to 3rd in yards before contact as their average fell to 2.89. Still, it was still plenty of cushion for UK’s backs to gallop for gains. Kentucky’s 19.4% Explosive Run Rate in SEC play was 3rd-best. But it wasn’t just these guys playing gritty on the ground. UK’s Pressure and Sack Rate finished above the conference average in these games with the latter being inside the top5. Mauler Logan Stenberg is the only non-returning starter upfront. Left to right, Landon Young, Ken Horsey, Drake Jackson, Luke Fortner, and Kinnard will make up the Wall. It could be up to them whether or not the Cats can win half of their games.

Key Offensive Team Stats in SEC Play:

The most important stats for Kentucky to maintain against SEC defenses are its rush yards before contact average and Run Havoc Rate. Obviously, it much easier for a run game to find success if a team’s backs aren't having to constantly shred tacklers in the backfield or rush into stuffed fronts. Running the ball has been UK’s identity the last few seasons. The Cats need to keep up their proficiency creating holes if they want any chance to sport a winning record at the end of 2020. 

The most important stats for UK to improve against SEC defenses are its Turnover Rate and Passing Success Rate. When a team lives and dies on its ground game and a stingy defense like the Cats do, winning is very hard to come by if the turnover battle is lost. Doing so decreases that style of play’s already slim margin of error. The Cats were fortunate to claim more victories than defeats in that department last year despite owning the SEC’s 5th-worst Turnover Rate in league play. Having a viable passing game should also help their buffer. Only Arkansas and Vanderbilt had less successful pass games last year in SEC play than the Cats. It’s pretty obvious they need improvement through the air. If the Cats can manufacture a half-way decent aerial attack, they will be a very tough offense to prepare for. 

Key Defensive Team Stats in SEC Play:

UK’s defense didn’t care much about stopping the run in SEC play last year. They provided ample underneath cushion with their alignment, were one of the worst defenses before and after contact, and sported a bottom4 Run Defensive Success Rate in these games. To win five games this year, those aspects must improve. Seeing one out of six carries on average go for 10-plus or 30% of run tackles end in failure historically doesn’t win you many SEC games. It's as simple as that.

But if the Cats can come close to replicating their Takeaway Rate and Touchdown Rate from last year, they'll be in position to win any given weekend. No defense in SEC play bested UK’s 3.3% Takeaway Rate, and their 3.74% Touchdown Rate was 3rd-best. Taking away extra possessions and preventing points are both fanatics ways to fuel wins on that side of the ball. Creating turnovers consistently is no given. So there's a chance the Cats could regress especially considering their Pressure Rate was bottom4 and their Pass Havoc Rate bottom6. Still the Cats' secondary projects to be able to hold their own with a top4 Defensive Pass Success Rate and 2nd-best Yards/Pass. 

Kentucky's 2020 Schedule:

Before I soldier on, I probably should explain what the SP+ Ratings are a little bit. Defining the SP+ in a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. ESPN's Bill Connelly's metric is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. That is important to remember. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise. Using the initial ratings, let's check out how Kentucky's schedule stacks up.

WEEK 1:

Kentucky @ Auburn: Projected Margin Auburn by 10

One of the most intriguing Week 1 matchups, UK’s Big Blue Wall will square off against the Steele Curtain Defense. It’s no secret the Wildcats live and die off their ability to run the football. Against SEC defenses last year, no team sported a lower Run Havoc Rate than UK. Plus, their rush yards before contact average and Explosive Run Rate were top3. But Auburn defense was the most successful versus the run while donning the 2nd-best Run Havoc Rate in SEC play. If Auburn can enforce their 47.5% 3-and-Out Rate against conference offenses from last season, UK’s ball control game plan will unravel. While the narratives on the other side of the ball also matter, the Cats won’t deliver the season’s first upset bid if they fail to forge run lanes on the Plains. As it is, the SP+ views them as a double-digit dog to start the year. 

WEEK 2:

Ole Miss @ Kentucky: Projected Margin Kentucky by 8

For both teams, this is one of the more winnable games on their schedule. From UK’s perspective, this is one of four of their games with a projected margin of 8 or less. Ole Miss is only favored in two games. They’ll gladly take their chances versus a seldom one-score gap. Both were the two most run-heavy offenses last year. Who knows how much each plans to run in 2020. But defensively, both Ole Miss and Kentucky were terrible stopping their opponent’s ground game. UK had the 4th-worst and Ole Miss had the 2nd-worst run defense per Success Rate with each having Yards/Run allowed clips 9th or worse in SEC play. This game features four of the top5 returning rushers in Yards/Run against conference defenses. This could be set up for a different kind fo shootout than fans are accustomed to. The Wildcats have the edge in the SP+ thanks to preferable ratings on both sides of the ball. 

WEEK 3:

Mississippi State @ Kentucky: Projected Margin Kentucky by 12

Assuming the Cats’ secondary is able to replicate its success from last season, this could be a bad matchup for Mike Leach’s Air Raid. With the 2nd-best Yards/Pass allowed in SEC play, UK’s defense also was the conference’s best at creating takeaways. Doing that again is a hard ask. But both of Miss State’s passers hold high Interceptable Pass Rates. Plus, the Bulldogs surrendered the 2nd-worst Pressure Rate in league play last year while the Cats sported the 4th-best Sack Rate. Though the two teams are even in the eyes of the SP+ on the surface, Kentucky should have the edge so long the Bulldogs don’t want to run. Maybe MSU’s defense improves. But, for the time being, Miss State rocks the SEC’s worst defense entering the year. Despite the uncertainties around UK’s offense, they should be able to move the ball at home. 

WEEK 4: 

Kentucky @ Tennessee: Projected Margin Tennessee by 5

With both Kentucky and Tennessee projected to win five games in 2020, this matchup winds up being one of the closest projected margins on each team’s schedules. Two of the last three years, this game has been decided by less than a touchdown. Of course, Kentucky has only won outright twice since 1984 with each of their wins being by a field goal. Kentucky’s stingy pass defense might be able to derail Tennessee’s big play offense, but the Big Blue Wall needs to be on its A-game versus the 6th best preseason defense in the eyes of the SP+. Plus, the Vols averaged the 4th-lowest rush yards before contact last year. Other than Georgia, no defense bottled up the Lynnsanity Offense better than Tennessee. Kentucky was slightly more consistent down-to-down on both sides of the ball within SEC play last year and returns more starters exiting this whacky offseason. They’ll be underdogs nonetheless. Still, this game should be very competitive. 

WEEK 5:

Georgia @ Kentucky: Projected Margin Georgia by 9.5

Kentucky’s Big Blue Wall will have a lot of tests across its schedule. Georgia’s defense presents to be the most difficult. Obviously, seeing you’re up against the top-ranked defense can be scary enough. But versus SEC offenses last year, the Dawgs’ D sported the best rush yards before contact average and Explosive Run Rate. Able to engage with backs early and often, UGA moreover prevented big runs. Though UK’s backs are better than most, the Cats’ line has to forge decent cushion upfront for the Cats to have any chance. On the other side of the ball, it remains to be seen if Georgia’s offense will be okay, good, or great. But Kentucky’s defense has the edge as of today. Good ole Georgia running the ball could tilt the mismatch as UK was terrible against the run in SEC play last year. Due to UGA’s projected dominance defensively, the SP+ looks for the Dawgs to win by two scores. 

WEEK 6:

Kentucky @ Missouri: Projected Margin Kentucky by 5

For Missouri, this is one of those games where their defense could put them in position to steal a win as an underdog. The SP+ projects them to lose by less than a touchdown, and UK’s offense is largely perceived as one-dimensional. Plus, the Cats will be on the road after duking it out with the No.1 defense in college football the previous week. As the game right before their bye week, Kentucky could be battered, bruised, and ripe for suffering an upset. Still, looking at the Tigers’ early slate, they should be far more beaten up than Big Blue. Plus despite being the SEC’s most successful defense in conference play, the Tigers were average allowing rush yards before contact, which obviously pleases UK’s maulers upfront. Regardless, the pressure will fall on their offense to find some production. Even if Mizzou holds the Cats to two scores or so, they themselves have to find a way to move the ball and put up points against a top26 defense, which donned a top3 Touchdown Rate in SEC play last year. 

WEEK 7:

BYE WEEK

WEEK 8:

Vanderbilt @ Kentucky: Projected Margin Kentucky by 27.5

After its bye week, Kentucky will have its easiest matchup. For a team set to face Alabama and Florida the two weeks after this game, Kentucky could take it easy and treat this game like a second bye to conserve its strength for those more challenging foes. The Cats defense shouldn’t have much trouble containing the Commodores. And while Vandy’s defense improved in the eyes of the SP+, they averaged the 2nd-worst rush yards before contact in SEC play. That undoubtedly led to the ‘Dores sitting at the bottom of the Defensive Explosive Run Rate rankings. For a run-heavy team like Kentucky, those kinds of stats jump off the screen. Vanderbilt’s offense which enters the year as one of the worst around. So, there’s not too much hope this group can best the ‘Dore’s 33% Success Rate against the Cats from the last two seasons. 

WEEK 9:

Kentucky @ Alabama: Projected Margin Alabama by 19

The Big Blue Wall versus Nick Saban’s defense is an interesting matchup. Of course this is looking at last year, but the Tide sported the 5th-worst Yards/Carry in SEC play with a pedestrian Defensive Rushing Success Rate and Explosive Run Rate to boot. For UK’s line that returns four starters, all of whom are among Pro Football Focus’ top7 graded lineman, a real opportunity to upset the Tide exists. While the Cats averaged the 3rd-best rush yards before contact clip in SEC play, Alabama’s defense averaged the 3rd worst mark on their side of the ball. Kentucky’s defense is capable enough to win small. And, they allowed the conference’s 2nd-lowest Yards/Pass on a top4 Success Rate. The Cats face Alabama after the Tide takes on LSU and before the Iron Bowl. This is a perfect recipe for UK to play spoiler. That said, it’s all wishful thinking. Kentucky isn’t a good tackling team or sound at run defense. Alabama can absolutely roll over the Wildcats with Najee Harris and their elite receivers doing work in the open field. Still, the Cats shouldn’t be taken too lightly despite a projected 19 point margin. 

WEEK 10:

Kentucky @ Florida: Projected Margin Florida by 14

While Florida has dominated this matchup in modern times, only one game in this series since 2014 hasn’t been competitive. As of late, most have been one-score margins. Of course, the Cats finally broke their losing streak and won in the Swamp their last visit. It’s no secret UK will look to bash and bruise behind its Big Blue Wall. Florida managed to penetrate the Cats line last year and were one of the top run defenses in SEC play. The Gators’ sported a top2 Yards/Carry and Explosive Run Rate and were top3 in Defensive Rushing Success Rate as well as average rush yards before and after contact. The Gators banked on their nickel and dime passing game to buoy their offense. Just as Kentucky’s run game looks to be on shaky ground versus Florida’s defense, UF’s passing game could be contained by the Cats. UK sported a top4 Passing Success Rate, Top5 Explosive Pass Rate, and top2 Yards/Pass in league play last year. Perhaps the winner comes down to who can execute its secondary facet better. For Florida, that means their ground game. For the Cats, that means their passing game. As of today, however, the SP+ easily likes Florida’s chances at home.  

WEEK 11:

South Carolina @ Kentucky: Projected Margin Kentucky by 7

Before being humbled in Columbia last fall, Kentucky had been enjoying a nice win-streak in this series. Beating teams like South Carolina and Missouri were paramount to UK’s accession out of the SEC East’s cellar in recent years. The Gamecocks have not won in Lexington since 2014 when Steve Spurrier was still in charge. If South Carolina wants to have any chance knocking off the Cats in consecutive seasons, its defense has to out-duel UK’s line and its offense has to find a way to move the ball on the ground. The Cats had no answers for SCar’s outside power schemes last year. Despite sporting a bottom3 rush yards before contact clip and bottom5 Explosive Run Rate in league play, South Carolina was able to get the better of Mark Stoops’ defense. For a game featuring two stout defenses, this game will be old-fashioned and likely low-scoring. A game probably decided on running the ball and total defense, Kentucky is projected to win by a touchdown at home. 

For more information on Kentucky's schemes, scripts, and stats visit the following links: