2020 Vision: Texas A&M

Texas A&M has only one double-digit win season this Millenia. Even an overly mediocre program like Kentucky has just as many in that time frame. Though the Aggies burst on to the scene during their first year in the SEC, Texas A&M has mostly delivered good, not great seasons since. Of course, the school took a big swing hiring Jimbo Fisher. With one of the highest price tags in football, however, he's lost nine games in his first two years in College Station. Entering a pivotal year three, now is the time for him to start winning and live up to his high billing. With the Aggies returning a veteran team with experience at a lot of key positions, this season is as good as time as ever for TAMU to make a run at the SEC crown. After all if Fisher cannot do it with this bunch, many will question if it ever will be possible. In this preview, you'll see where the Aggies' key returners stack up relative to other SECers, important stats TAMU has to maintain or improve on both sides of the ball in conference play, and how its schedule stacks up in the eyes of ESPN's SP+ Ratings. 

Passers:

Kellen Mond was Texas A&M's offensive engine in 2019. That meant the good, not great quarterback led an overly good, not great offense. Mond has talent, but he’s yet to elevate those around him or dispel notions he can’t win big games. Analysts are split on his projection; but the consensus is he’s a top3 passer within the SEC entering 2020. 

Failing to creating chunk plays were the foundation of the Aggies’ passing woes. Versus SEC defenses, Mond’s 6.41% Explosive Pass Rate is the 2nd-lowest of the conference returners. On dropback passes, his 11.2 average depth of target is the 5th-lowest. Too much of the Aggies’ production through the air came via modest gains. Unfortunately, Jimbo Fisher’s pro-scheme doesn’t yield many yards after the catch opportunities. For whatever reason, he didn’t feel confident enough to push the ball downfield too often. Less than 9% of his attempts traveled at least 20 yards in SEC play. 

Another trait that led to their muted ways was the fact Texas A&M was terrible blocking at pass blocking. Their 38.4% Pressure Rate was the 2nd-worst in SEC play last year. With Mond constantly forced to extend plays or evade rushers, his output suffered. Mond was essentially an average passer in the face of pressure. But thanks to the high volume of such attempts, his numbers skewed downward. Fixing this is paramount. Because one: duh. And, two: Kellen Mond offers the highest floor of any SEC passer. Striping away RPO throws, screens, and pressured attempts, what a dude does from clean+dropback situations is a better down-to-down reflection of who he really is. Mond owns the SEC’s top Success Rate and Depth Adjusted Accuracy and is top3 in First Down+Touchdown Rate, Interceptable Pass Rate, and Uncatchable Pass Rate in those spots. Keep him clean, and the Aggies might break through. That is all the more paramount with the Aggies failing to boast a proven bunch of pass catchers. 

Catchers:

Jhamon Ausbon was TAMU’s best receiver in 2019 and was quietly one of the top returners at the position group within the conference. His opt-out surprises the hell out of me. As the go-to man on this offense and a team captain, the timing of his announcement can be questioned. No doubt his absence will make one of the Aggies' strongest assets incessantly more muted moving forward. In terms of volume, he compiled the 3rd-most yards and catches and the 2nd-most first down conversions. In terms of efficiency, Ausbon sports a top10 Catch Rate and First Down+Touchdown Rate. His overall Success Rate sit as the SEC's 4th-best and did damage in plenty of spots. Though the Aggies didn’t take many shots, Ausbon’s 60% Success Rate on deep targets is the 4th best ahead of 2020. As the SEC’s 4th-most prolific intermediate receiver, he dons the 5th-best such Success Rate. Plus, his 3rd Down Success Rate, Yards/Target and Depth Adjusted Catch Rate are all top5. He’s as well-rounded as they come and should have been on track to see triple-digit targets this fall. 

With departures and personnel shuffling, Cam Buckley was the only other receiver who saw significant time returning for the Aggies. Him being lost for the year due to injury is a major blow. He really didn’t have the best year in 2019. He only caught 11 of his 25 targets; but six were uncatchable. Either way, a 32% Success Rate won’t cut it. For what it’s worth, two years ago Buckley cracked 50%. No other returning receiver saw north of five targets last year. I personally think Ainias Smith would excel moving back to the slot, but Jimbo appears adamant to keep him in the backfield. 

At least their main tight end is a total stud. Jalen Wydermeyer is one of the gems in this conference. A fifth of his catches went for 20 or more yards, and he was the Aggies’ best player after the catch. Both his Success Rate and Yards/Target are top10 amongst conference returners. That’s rare for any college tight end; let alone, a freshman. And he excels where you’d want tight ends to excel the most: the redzone. His 83.3% Success Rate in that area of the field is the SEC’s 2nd-best among players with at least five such targets. He’s one of my guys and I think big things are ahead of him in this offense in 2020. This offense will need him especially with Baylor Cupp and Blake Smith also heading to the season-long injured list. 

Rushers:

Texas A&M’s run game was primarily composed of zone schemes. Isiah Spiller racked up more yards and first downs off those concepts than any SECer coming back for 2020. Just under 84% of his carries occurred on a zone play. On the flip side, Kellen Mond, mostly from zone reads or Q-stretch plays, found himself as the SEC’s most successful rusher on those designs. His 62.9% Rushing Success Rate and 8.63 Yards/Carry looks down on all other returners. Much of Mond’s output fueled this team’s efficiency, while Spiller was the main man for yardage. The two combined to account for about two-thirds of TAMU’s designed carries. 

Spiller more than doubled the next man in line's carries. In SEC play, his blockers did him very little favors. In case you forgot, Spiller and the Aggies' run game when Mond didn’t keep the ball were frequently bottled up and stifled. To that point, Spiller’s rush yards before contact average was a mere 1.18 clip, which was a bottom3 mark versus conference opponents. Over 62% of his carries in these spots went for three yards or less. And he wasn’t one to break off big runs at a decent rate. His 8.41% Explosive Run Rate is bottom5 mark amongst returners. Quite frankly if the Aggies can’t find rush yards come easier, they’ll be in a heap of it. Believe it or not, no team passed more on average in SEC play last year than Texas A&M. That's 100% due to their inability to run. Mond’s resume is chocked full of instances him of failing to rise above the moment when there’s a bullseye on his back. It wouldn't be so prominent if TAMU could win upfront more often.  

Ainias Smith is presumed to help with the workload. Moved from slot receiver to the backfield for their bowl game, he made the full-time switch this offseason. Though I think he’s more useful as a shifty slot, the Aggies needed running back depth upon losing three backs. From his one game sample as a ball carrier, he put up admirable numbers: a 7.71 Yards/Carry and 71.4% Success Rate. But let’s be real, he only logged seven tries. I’m not putting much weight into his limited output and feel this is Spiller’s job until further notice. He should at least be a good receiver out of the backfield. 

Glancing at the O-Line:

To recap, Kellen Mond was one of the most pressured passers and TAMU’s primary rusher barely averaged over a yard before contact versus conference defenses. No offense suffered from a worse Run Havoc Rate than the Aggies’ 42.4% clip. No offense surrendered a Sack Rate higher than their 4.89%. For a unit that’s set to start five seniors, that is inexcusable, deplorable, and indefensible. It’s one thing to biff it during one facet. But for a veteran unit have no discernible strength as a group makes things awfully difficult for a play caller to find consistency and move the ball without things going sideways (or backwards). Though the Aggies technically averaged 2.27 yards before contact, that was heavily inflated by Mond’s production off read options or Q-runs. Still, these numbers are hard to justify. Obviously if Texas A&M replicates that kind of production upfront, there’s no chance they’ll be any kind of relevant in 2020. From left to right, their starters project to be Dan Moore Jr, Jared Hocker, Ryan McCollum, Keyon Green, and Carson Green. 

Key Offensive Team Stats in SEC Play:

The most important stats for the Aggies to maintain against SEC defenses are its Early Down Pass Rate and Rushing Success Rate. Passing is generally more fruitful than running. They average more yards/play and generate more value for an offense analytically. If a team has a capable passer, they should lean into putting the ball into his hands for those reasons. Sure, the Aggies passed out of necessity last fall, but I feel sticking with a pass-heavy approach is for the best. Of course, that’s assuming TAMU can find more potency and isn’t just nickel-and-diming. If that facet can start experiencing chunk gains, defenses will direct more attention outside, which could allow rushing success to materialize. Texas A&M's  3rd-ranked Rushing Success Rate was beefed up from Mond’s carries. But as long as there is a viable way for this offense to find gains as an auxiliary to its aerial-inclined attack, I think they’ll be okay. 

The most important stats for Texas A&M to improve against conference defenses are its Sack Rate and Explosive Pass Rate. Not to be a broken record, but the level of duress Mond suffered last year really handcuffed his ceiling. If he’s flustered on 38% or sacked on 5% of his dropbacks again, there’s no chance this offense can reach its potential. The conservative gains allowed this offense to find consistency and situational success, but sporting a bottom5 Yards/Play isn’t a trait most dangerous offenses sport. Mond must generate more explosive gains and push the ball more downfield. Over the last two years of games involving at least one SEC team, the team that wins the explosive play battle has claimed victory in 75% of contests. 

Key Defensive Team Stats in SEC Play:

The most important stats for TAMU’s defense to maintain against conference offenses are its Defensive Pass Success Rate and 3rd Down Success Rate. Both clips cracked the SEC’s top5 and were the only key metrics where the Aggies finished better than 6th within conference play. I shouldn’t need to tell you how important it is to have a dependable secondary when offenses are turning more and more towards the skies. If the Aggies can eliminate one facet and make offenses more one-dimensional, they’ll be able to find more victories in the margins. Plus since the money down is often when teams pass the most, being successful curbing quarterbacks comes hand in hand with winning defensively on 3rd Downs. 

The most important stats for Texas A&M’s defense to improve versus SEC offenses are its Touchdown Rate allowed and Takeaway Rate. Perhaps basic suggestions, this unit will improve heads in shoulders within the conference rankings if they can shore up their proclivity on allowing scoring plays or discover ways to generate more turnovers with greater frequency. TAMU’s 4.49% Touchdown Rate exceeded their own offense’s 4.14% with SEC play. Needless to say, they need to reverse that and add some cushion statistically for good measure. Plus, their margin of error would unequivocally increase with eliminating their opponent's possessions. No SEC team posted a worse Takeaway Rate than the Aggies’ 0.94% clip. The Aggies must to rectify that in 2020. 

Texas A&M's 2020 Schedule:

Texas A&M enters 2020 with the 4th-easiest schedule within the conference per the ESPN's SP+ Ratings. Playing each division's worst team is bound to do that for you. Still, the Aggies will have their fair share of contested matchups. Road games at Alabama, South Carolina, Tennessee and Auburn features four top20 preseason defenses. Their two most challenging games at home feature two top13 offenses. The Aggies themselves are top15 on both sides of the ball and 10th overall. Per the SP+, Texas A&M is favored by double-digits in five games with four others sporting very slim margins. The Florida game is as close to a deadlock as you'll find. Plus, the margins in the Tennessee, LSU, and Auburn are all less than five points. The Alabama game is the only matchup where the Aggies are double-score underdogs. Their initial under/over was set at 6 but has inched up to 7 the past couple of weeks. Considering they're favored in seven games, taking the over seems like an obvious choice assuming they can win just one of their premier matchups in 2020 or if you're a believer in Kellen Mond. For what it's worth, the Aggies are set to face five of the SEC's six worst defensive teams. 

While the public will apply pressure to Mond, the Aggies' defense must do their part. Like its offense, TAMU's D faces five of the conference's six worst offensive teams in the eyes of the preseason SP+. Two of them are key road games against South Carolina and Tennessee, and the Aggies' projected margin of victory is only one score. Historically, those are the kind of games that can result in a loss if one isn't careful. Back-to-back road games against two mighty defenses could make the Aggies' play into their opponents' strengths. While it goes without saying this group needs to show up versus their best foes, they cannot let their guard down looking ahead. If this team is 9-1, it would surprise a lot of people. Still, the Aggies have a fighter's chance to rep the West in the SEC championship. 

Before I soldier on, I probably should explain what the SP+ Ratings are a little bit. Defining the SP+ in a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. ESPN's Bill Connelly's metric is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. That is important to remember. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise. Using the initial ratings, let's check out how Texas A&M's schedule stacks up.

WEEK 1:

Vanderbilt @ Texas A&M: Projected Margin Texas A&M by 35

There’s a good bet any game Vanderbilt plays in this season will feature the most lopsided margin of the week. Per the SP+, the Commodores are set to lose their first game by 35 points. Looking at the preseason projections across the conference, this game owns the 2nd-largest margin. Vanderbilt’s offense looks to be one of the worst in recent memory as it starts the year in the bottom3 in that metric nationally. TAMU is top15 on both sides of the ball and is led by one of the better quarterbacks in the conference. Texas A&M struggled to create explosive gains in 2019. But Vandy could be just the opponent for the Aggies to work out the kinks. In SEC play last year, one out of every six plays on average was either a 10-plus yard run or 20-plus yard pass for Vandy’s defense. No other team was worse in that regard. On paper, the ‘Dores are simply pitiful. 

WEEK 2:

Texas A&M @ Alabama: Projected Margin Alabama by 12

One of the better matchups in Week 2, both TAMU and the Tide are top20 on both sides of the ball per the SP+. Alabama’s defense lost ground this offseason dropping from 8th in the initial ratings to 19th in the September revision. Playing an offense ranked in the bottom25 nationally in Week 1 certainly won’t be a barometer of this team’s ability. With the 8th-best Defensive Success Rate in SEC play last year, Alabama was certainly wishy-washy on that side of the ball. But, it has yet to be bested by Jimbo’s offense. This is Kellen Mond’s last crack at the Tide, and he’s yearning to shed off perceptions he “can’t win the big one”. If the SEC’s best defense at limiting explosive passes replicates their play from last year, Texas A&M’s projected margin of defeat looks about right. The Aggies’ finished with the 2nd-worst Explosive Pass Rate in SEC play. In order for them to have a chance, they’ll have to match Alabama’s big-play offense with chunk plays of their own. That might be hard to come by against the secondary that sported the best Explosive Pass Rate in league play last year. 

WEEK 3:

Florida @ Texas A&M: Projected Margin Florida by 0.5 / Pick 'Em

This game projects to be as close as possible in the eyes the the SP+. So don’t be surprised if the line ends up being razor thin. Though Florida is rated higher on both sides of the ball in the SP+, the “home field advantage” just barely swung the edge to the Aggies. For all the offseason chatter of arguing which quarterback is better, Kellen Mond and Kyle Trask will get to decide it on the field. In SEC play last year, both team had top3 Pass Rates and top4 Passing Success Rates. Of course, the run games for these teams both left much to be desired. This game might be decided by Florida’s front and TAMU’s O-Line. The Gators rocked the conference’s 3rd-best Sack Rate and 5th-best Pass Havoc Rate against SEC offenses last year. The Aggies’ line surrendered the worst Sack Rate. If Mond is overly clean, I think Texas A&M will prevail. And, that’s a big if due to the aforementioned pass blocking woes. Simply, the Gators have more big play potential, which could easily affect the outcome. 

WEEK 4:

Texas A&M @ Mississippi State: Projected Margin Texas A&M by 13

If Mississippi State can find some big gains, they could absolutely keep it close against the Aggies’ methodical pro-scheme. Obviously, MSU’s scheme — among other things —are different year-over-year. But, the Bulldogs were one of the few conference offenses to sport a top5 Explosive Rate throwing and running. Overall, they ended the year with the SEC’s bronze medal in league play. Texas A&M’s defense was bottom4 in the SEC at allowing explosive plays last year. But the greater expectation is for Kellen Mond to slice and dice the SEC’s 2nd-least successful pass defense from 2019. While faith is in the Air Raid to win in some spots with its top25 offensive rating, TAMU is top15 on both sides of the ball. The SP+ likes them to win by a multiple possessions. 

WEEK 5:

BYE WEEK

WEEK 6: