2020 Vision: Arkansas

Sam Pittman signed up for a pretty tough gig. Captain Obvious wanted me to relay that from the onset. Despite convincing lead back Rakeem Boyd to stick around, selling the school to a few key transfers, and hiring the best coordinators on both sides of the ball as possible, most folks believe this will be the Hogs' third-straight season without an SEC win. ESPN's SP+ is just as dubious on their outlook. While it's likely to get ugly at times, that won't mean this season won't be meaningful. Signs of growth, however, have to be seen unless Pittman wants to live in Fayetteville for less than two years like his predecessor. In this preview, you'll see where Arkansas' main returners rank relative to other SECers on offense, important stats the Hogs must improve to progress, and how their schedule stacks up through the eyes of the SP+ Ratings. 

Passers: 

Feleipe Franks is a mixed bag. In his brief 2019 stint, he posted an elite Success Rate and Depth Adjusted Accuracy% with what would end as the SEC's 3rd-highest Expected Points Added by year's end. But head-scratching decisions paired with conservative targets made his risk-reward frustrating. Despite having the second lowest average depth of target among 13 qualifying SEC passers, his 8.45% Interceptable Pass Rate comfortably falls into the backend of conference quarterbacks. For what it’s worth, he was middle of the road in both respects in 2018. But, Franks’ 43% Success Rate was right at the SEC average and his Depth Adjusted Accuracy%. His 44.4% such clip would have ranked 11th this past season.  

Franks saw his best results off play action. Dan Mullen is a big believer in that tactic, but it remains how much of a melting pot Arkansas offense will be this year. Mullen also was a play caller who played to more YAC-oriented patterns than vertical shots. Sam Pittman’s offense the last few years has been run-first leaning on bread-and-butter inside zones. But Georgia’s play action usage was on the lower end of the spectrum. Offensive Coordinator Kendall Briles, of course, runs more of a Texas-spread scheme that doesn’t mind taking to the skies. Franks’ already high Success Rate and Depth Adjusted Accuracy% ballooned by double-digits to just under 70% each when using play action in 2019. Sure, that’s something to watch. But coaxing more downfield targets while curbing wayward attempts and iffy throws, however, should be priority number one. With the hardest schedule in the conference, wins will come harder by losing the turnover battle or if Franks can't get comfortable. Unfortunately, Hog Nation knows how a shaky pass game can sour the rest of a team's output. 

Catchers: 

Handcuffed by crappy quarterback play the last few seasons, Arkansas' receivers are a tricky bunch to evaluate. The good thing is most of them are young. Mike Woods is the most veteran member of the bunch as a junior. Though he shared the team's top spot in Target Share in SEC play, his 34.1% Success Rate and 5.68 Yards/Target were brutal relative to the rest of the conference. But when uncatchable targets were omitted, his 70.4% Depth Adjusted Catch Rate stands as the 8th best among conference returners versus SEC opponents. He’s a short-oriented route runner who can wiggle free against most. Last year, his four most-targeted routes were curls, hitches, slants and outs. On the surface, that suits Franks past modus operandi. 

Treylon Burks will be the Razorbacks’ primary slot receiver. He was much more vertically-oriented than Woods. On just 17 catches versus SEC defenses, he led the team with 275 yards, a 6.71 Yards/Target, and 12.2% Explosive Pass Rate. Moreover, three of his four most targeted routes were streaks, seams, and digs. But his production was still lackluster by SEC standards. Only around a third of his targets resulted in success and his 43.5% Depth Adjusted Catch Rate is bottom6 amongst SEC returners.  

Trey Knox ended up being the Hogs’ least efficient receiver in SEC play last year. While he certainly can stand to grow as a pass catcher, his inefficiencies mirrored the rest of his teammates' due to shoddy passing. He only dropped one target and 25% of his chances were charted as uncatchable. Still, there is no denying a 31.3% Success Rate is disheartening. A new staff, scheme, and passer should do him good. His output can’t get much worse. If he can’t find more consistency, Tyson Morris, Koilan Jackson and De’Vion Warren will be itching to take his snaps. 

Tight end used to be Arkansas deepest position a few short seasons ago. Now, it’s a bare-bone bunch with not much experience. Starter Hudson Henry only logged 3 targets last season. Kendall Briles could opt to play more 10 personnel or minimize his tight ends' presence in the passing game. All else considered, this position group is hard to overly trust entering 2020. 

Rushers: 

Arkansas rushers start and end with Rakeem Boyd. Though he could have worked himself into a Day3 pick or become one of the hottest names in the transfer portal once the Chad Morris Era went up in flames, Boyd chose to stick it out in Fayetteville for one more season. That season looks to be quite a challenge for a myriad of reasons. Facing six of ESPN’s top20 defenses give Arkansas one of the toughest schedules around. Last year, Boyd delivered a mediocre Explosive Run Rate and Yards/Carry on a middling yards before contact clip versus SEC defenses, which matched his Expected Points Added within the conference. His 39.2% Success Rate was a few points below the conference mean. With the ante upped in 2020, I’m bearish Boyd can improve in those spots especially with a bottom4 Broken Tackle Rate among returning SEC backs. Still, Boyd won’t cede many carries to his backups barring injury or a sporadic breakout performance. As the Razorbacks' best offensive player, how creatively Briles utilizes him could be the difference in whether Arkansas wins its first SEC game since September 2017 or continues to rack up L's. 

Glancing at the O-Line: 

Despite being recruited to play in a phone booth, Arkansas' OLine had issues working fronts the past couple of seasons. Versus conference defenses, they averaged less than 2 rush yards before contact. With early engagement, their backs had more trouble ripping off fruitful runs. Both Arkansas' Yards/Carry and Rushing Success Rate fell into the SEC’s bottom5 last fall. They were slightly more capable limiting Havoc plays as their 30.9% clip ranked 7th. At least this run-oriented unit held their own in that department. 

The major shortcoming of this unit, however, has been failing to stifle pressure. While being aggressive with empty protections made their jobs more challenging, Arkansas’ line has finished in the bottom3 of Pressure Rate the last two seasons. Allowing constant duress has upended the Hogs’ passing game plenty as of late.  It bears mentioning, all three of Feleipe Franks’ interceptions last year came under pressure. Though Sam Pittman's experience working with lines with sorely be need, it will be baptism by fire with the gauntlet facing the Hogs. From left to right, their starters are set to be Myron Cunningham, Shane Clenin, Ty Clary, Ricky Stromberg, and Dalton Wagner. 

Key Offensive Team Stats in SEC Play: 

The most important stats for Arkansas’ offense to maintain against SEC offenses are its Broken Play Rate and Early Down Pass Rate. Despite all the dysfunction, Arkansas offense rarely broke down outside of structure. That isn’t to say some plays never got off the ground, because obviously that happened frequently. But only 6.60% of snaps were totally bested by defensive calls. Though Rakeem Boyd will look to anchor this offense, Arkansas has to be more aggressive with their early down passing. This doesn’t mean taking frequent shots per se, but running RPOs with All Curls won’t cut it. Maintaining healthy run-pass balance will help defenses from locking into one facet. That should help Franks find his groove should play action come into the equation. Setting him up to play lots of "backyard ball" situation will no yield great results. 

Let’s be honest, the offensive product Arkansas has displayed in recent years is not up to anyone’s standards. Sticking with that status quo by choice isn’t acceptable. Arkansas was in the bottom3 in Success Rate, Yards/Play, Explosive Play Rate, Turnover Rate, 3-and-Out Rate, 3rd Down Conversion%, Pressure Rate, Yards After Contact, Yards/Game, and Points/Play in SEC play last year. That’s gotta get better. Just picking two to hone in on is tough. But eliminating turnovers and creating more explosive gains are both aspects that often helped outmanned teams compete, or better yet, upset favorites. If the Hogs will win any game in 2020, they must be able to stop giving foes extra chances to score and be able to capture field flipping plays more consistently. 

Key Defensive Team Stats in SEC Play: 

Arkansas’ defense was even worse than its putrid offense versus conference opponents last year. They need improvement across the board. The Razorbacks were either last or second-to-last in Defensive Success Rate, Yards/Play Allowed, TD Rate Allowed, 3-and-Out-Rate Forced, Pressure Rate, average rush yards before contact, and Yards/Game against SEC offenses. Obviously the premo choice would be to slice that high TD Rate in half or improve their Success Rate tremendously, but it all needs work. They are more than a few tweaks from being even a mediocre defensive unit. Still, generating extra possessions could help be a fortunate bandaid. Of the 22 major stat categories for this exercise, the only metric Arkansas’ defense finished outside the bottom3 in was Takeaway Rate. 

Arkansas' 2020 Schedule: 

Arkansas enters the season with the SEC's hardest schedule. No other conference team has a schedule with an average rating over 14.3. The Hogs sport a 16.9 average across their schedule, which is akin to playing a team like Texas each week. Most SEC teams' "average opponent faced" based on comparative scores would be akin to the level of playing Oklahoma State or Memphis each week. For Arkansas, their score projects a team of the caliber of Oregon. (For what it's worth prior to the Pac-12 punting on the fall, the Ducks were the 13th ranked team in the SP+ while OK St is 21st). One of the two conference teams to don a negative SP+ Rating to start the year, the Razorbacks will not be a favorite in any of their games based on the initial SP+. Outside of Kentucky, Arkansas is the only team to face all four of the SEC's preseason top10 defenses. At least their two most challenging games will bookend the schedule in Fayetteville. The SP+ projects Arkansas will suffer from a margin of defeat of 20 or more points six times in 2020. 

Retaining Rakeem Boyd and securing a decent transfer QB in Feleipe Franks were massive in keeping Arkansas' Offensive Rating from falling into the triple digits. Still, there's not a whole lot of optimism on that side of the ball. Sam Pittman's fervor might be enough to jolt the Hogs to a couple of wins, but Arkansas' offense opens up worse than every defense they face. Mississippi State, who opens rated around the national median, is the worst defense they play. Again, this unit's offensive metrics were largely near the conference floor across the board in SEC play last year and there's not much optimism they'll be able to climb outside of the bottom5. 

Defensively, six of Arkansas' ten offensive opponents sport top30 ratings per the SP+. Only two fall outside of the top50: Tennessee and Missouri. Since Missouri finds itself in a similar situation, taking down the Tigers might be Arkansas best bet for a win this season. Though Mizzou is projected to win by ten points, their offense rated in triple-digits could spell a low scoring rock fight. Winning in such a manner will be the Hogs' best bet to snatch a game or two. There's no way the Hogs are constructed to win a shootout at this point in time. Furthermore though Arkansas has failed to win a single SEC game the past two seasons, Vegas has set their win total at 2. The Razorbacks are a "buy low" team. Though some folks' pick to be a surprise team in the SEC West, most are not getting their hopes up for their 2019 campaign. Along with the Missouri game, the SP+ views the Ole Miss game as their best chance to win this season. With an under/over win total set at 1.5 (over+130), there's value to be had believing in the Razorbacks. 

Before I soldier on, I probably should explain what the SP+ Ratings are a little bit. Defining the SP+ in a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. ESPN's Bill Connelly's metric is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. That is important to remember. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise. Using the initial ratings, let's check out how Arkansas' schedule stacks up.

WEEK 1:

Georgia @ Arkansas: Projected Margin Georgia by 26

Sam Pittman starts his Razorback tenure by facing his former employer. It’s a bad matchup for the Hogs despite starting the year at home. Their recent struggles have been well-documented, and Georgia brings in the nation’s top preseason defense. In SEC play, no defense trumped the Dawgs’ rush yards before contact average, Yards/Play, Explosive Play Rate or TD Rate. Sure Arkansas has some pieces in place to make things interesting, but Georgia will be motivated to start the season full throttle. With Jamie Newman opting out, the Dawgs’ offense loses its potency. Still their opponent should offer opportunities to bust big ones. Arkansas’ defense was bottom3 in Explosive Pass Rate, Touchdown Rate, and Pass Havoc Rate. Hard to pick a better situation for JT Daniels to begin his fresh start. 

WEEK 2:

Arkansas @ Mississippi State: Projected Margin Alabama by 10.5

By the SP+, this will be one of the few games the Bulldogs will enter as favorites. The Air Raid could take flight and bombard the Hogs defense all afternoon. Barry Odom is a more shell creator and likes his defenses to sit back before rallying. This style does’t call for a lot of blitzing. So as long as Miss State’s yucky pass blocking can contain a unit that put up the SEC’s worst Pressure Rate last year, their offense should be able to shred the SEC’s least successful pass defense. On the other side of the coin, the Bulldogs’ pass defense was the next worst in league play. Entering the season, the SP+ has MSU as the worst defense in the SEC. If Feleipe Franks can take advantage of that matchup, we might have a barn-burner on our hands. Plus if Franks can't produce against the SEC's lowest rated overall defense, it's not a glowing omen for the rest of the season. 

WEEK 3:

Arkansas @ Auburn: Projected Margin Auburn by 26

After a couple of rough weeks to start their year, Auburn will get to knock around the Razorbacks at home. Auburn’s offensive woes against higher-ranked teams are well documented, but the Tigers should have no issues dismantling the SEC’s 2nd-worst defense in the SP+ ratings. Obviously if they are able to split or win both of their prior games, War Eagle will be flying high. This will be a back-to-back road trip for the Hogs who simply don’t match up well against Auburn’s Steele Curtain defense. Arkansas’ only hope is a major offensive regression from the Tigers due to a new scheme and O-Line. If dysfunction persists throughout Auburn’s first month of the season, perhaps Arkansas can hang around longer than expected. Still, Auburn will be a heavy favorite against a team that hasn’t won an SEC game since September 2017. 

WEEK 4:

Ole Miss @ Arkansas: Projected Margin Ole Miss by 8

Being one of the few games the Rebels are favored the win by the SP+, Ole Miss cannot take Arkansas lightly. Luckily for the Hogs, they get to face Lane Kiffin's bunch in between their games versus Alabama and Auburn. So there’s a little bit of a trap game element that could favor the Razorbacks. This game presents as one of their best opportunities to win. Not only is it one of their smaller projected deficits, but it’s also at home. On both sides of the ball, Ole Miss has the edge per the initial ratings and carry-over stats from last season. So there’s no reason to overthink this one at this point in time even if the Rebels schedule presents an opening for Arkansas to strike. 

WEEK 5: 

BYE WEEK

WEEK 6: 

Arkansas @ Texas A&M: Projected Margin Texas A&M by 26.5

Both teams will be fresh off their byes for this one. Though Arkansas displayed heart and had an opportunity to win last year, the SP+ doesn’t give them much hope to come out of College Station with a victory. As the home team with top15 units on both sides of the ball, the Aggies look to cruise. Barry Odom could jolt the Hogs defense into being sturdy and Kendall Briles could orchestrate an outstanding game plan, but it’s unlikely. That said, TAMU remains vulnerable week-to-week until they can prove they solved their big play problem. Until chunk gains become a common occurrence, it’s hard to put much faith into TAMU’s upside glancing at the other available title contenders. Arkansas found a way to bottle them up last year. They’ll need to do it again for the Hogs to have any chance to win this one. 

WEEK 7:

Tennessee @ Arkansas: Projected Margin Tennessee by 15

Tennessee has three “gimme” wins thanks to the likes of Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Arkansas. Everything screams the Vols should have no trouble against the Hogs, but road games deep into the conference schedule are often when teams slip up. And while their play in conference last year was putrid, Barry Odom’s presence has the Razorbacks’ defense not too far behind Tennessee’s offense in the preseason SP+ ratings. Tennessee still has a long way to go to prove their offense is consistent despite its recent potency. The Vols won deep versus Odom last year, which helped secure a late season win. He knows first-hand Arkansas stopping that element needs to be a priority. If Tennessee is forced to grind it out with the Razorbacks on the road, their chances of winning comfortably go out the window. 

WEEK 8:

Arkansas @ Florida: Projected Margin Florida by 30

Florida is blessed with its easiest stretch after the Gators’ tilt with Georgia. If they are undefeated at this point, it’s all downhill from here first starting with Arkansas. The narrative will be centered on Feleipe Franks returning to the Swamp. As publicly supportive as Dan Mullen was around Franks’ departure, you know he and Todd Grantham will know exactly how to get under his skin and make him uncomfortable. In general, Florida’s defense looks to impenetrable for Arkansas’ offense. Obviously if Arkansas sticks to their stats from last year, their first SEC win in three seasons will be hard to come by. But looking at the macro, Florida could come out flat due to the layout of their schedule. Like I mentioned after the Gators play Georgia, they get the two worst teams in the SEC. Florida could play on auto-pilot and not be as sharp. All speculative at this point, but Florida is expected to win big per the SP+. 

WEEK 9:

LSU @ Arkansas: Projected Margin LSU by 18.5

After traveling to the Swamp, Sam Pittman’s bunch has to turnaround and host the defending national champs. Like you would expect, the SP+ view the Razorbacks as big underdogs in this one. The recent opt outs shrunk this margin by nearly a touchdown, and still LSU is favored by three scores or so. Outside of Mississippi State in Week 1, the Hogs present to be the Bayou Bengals’ least-challenging defensive opponent in the eyes of the preseason SP+ Ratings. Considering the the perception of LSU’s offense, this could be a boat race if the Tigers aren’t crestfallen from their game versus Alabama. Arkansas’ 87th ranked offense seemingly poses little threat to LSU’s top25 defense. But road conference games are never to be taken for granted.