2020 Vision: Alabama
2020 Vision: Alabama
For most programs, winning 11 games and reaching a New Year's Day bowl is one of the best outcomes you can hope for by year's end. Of course, Alabama is no ordinary program even by SEC standards. The Tide hadn't donned two losses on their record in six years. Despite the downturn, losing its quarterback, right tackle, two blazing wideouts and plenty of other dudes to the NFL, Alabama enters 2020 as the favorite to win it all according to the ESPN SP+ Ratings. When you look up and down their roster, it's pretty easy to see why plenty of metrics and analysts love Alabama's chances to return to the top of the mountain in college football. In this preview, you'll see where the Tide's key offensive returns stand relative to other notable SECers, important stats for them to maintain or improve in conference play, and how Alabama's schedule stacks up in the eyes of SP+ Ratings.
Passers:
Mac Jones may have been a coddled passer in his late season starts last year, but he is undeniably one of the top end passers within the SEC. Not even the Heisman topped his intermediate pass metrics and QBR in the back half of the year. He is more than capable to be Steve Sarkisian’s conductor spreading around the wealth to Alabama's dynamos despite some notable blunders on his resume.
His Success Rate, Touchdown Rate, Depth Adjusted Accuracy, and Yards/Attempt were all Top5 versus SEC foes. Amongst returners for 2020, his DAA% was the only of those stats to fall outside the top2 . Other than Tommy Stevens, no one used more play action within league play last season than Jones’ 32.5% clip. Not to mention, Jones was the least flustered quarterback to the tune of a 16.1% Pressure Rate against SEC defenses. With that kind of environment, you don't necessarily need top-end arm talent to be effective.
When the verniers of Sark’s scheme were stripped away and Jones had to operate strictly as a dropback passer, his floor offers a more muted projection. With how valuable his outlets were on the perimeter off RPOs or screens, it’s understandable why his stats would fall a tad on pure dropbacks. While most SEC passers saw their numbers improve from clean+dropback attempts, Jones’ metrics worsened in spots like Depth Adjusted Accuracy%, First Down+TD Rate, Explosive Pass Rate, Uncatchable Pass Rate, and Success Rate. The last two fell to 6th and 8th among returners. Jones' intermediate passing, however, is elite. His midrange Success Rate and Depth Adjusted Accuracy% are about 30 and 20 percentage points better than the next man in line. His cumulative profile, and more importantly his weapons, should have Alabama well-equipped for the SEC-only slate. But, that won’t stop the Bryce Love Fan Club from championing for their guy to get some PT.
Catchers:
Like last year, Alabama will have a dynamic group of receivers. With Ja'Marr Chase opting out, Alabama now undeniably boasts the SEC's premier receiving tandem. Losing receivers akin to Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs to the pros would cripple most offenses the following year. But of course, this is Alabama.
Jaylen Waddle has been one of the best receivers analytically the last two seasons. Versus conference defenses last year, Waddle was basically an outlet receiver. His 3.95 average depth of target is the second lowest amongst returning SEC receivers. Still, his 86.4% Catch Rate and 14.1 Yards/Target are in the top3. More importantly, however, no one tops his 68.1% Success Rate or 26.3% TD Rate against SEC foes. Waddle is one of my guys this year. I’m really anxious to see if Sark lets him operate more as a downfield receiver. After all, Waddle’s Deep Catch Rate has ruled the SEC since 2018. Waddle very much has a case to be this conference's best receiver outright. Plus, you have seen his returning skills?
And then there’s DeVonta Smith. Both prolific and efficient, Smith is as versatile as college receivers come. As Alabama’s X-receiver, he’s no stranger to making big plays consistently. Plus, he has premier hands. His 84.4% Depth Adjusted Catch Rate, that omits uncatchable targets, and his 64.1% Contested Catch Rate are both inside the top2 amongst returners. Looking at his metrics verses SEC defenses, he is either first or second catches, yards, touchdowns, Yards/Target, Explosive Catch Rate, and yards after the catch average. Well-rounded and potent all over the field, intermediate patterns generated Smith’s best results. No SECer entering this season tops his 78.9% midrange Success Rate or 21.3 Yards/Target. Additionally, Slade Bolden and John Metchie are expected to help fill the void left by Jeudy and Ruggs.
Major Tennison and Miller Forristall only combined for 18 targets within SEC play. With the weapons the Crimson Tide have at other spots, I understand why these two are largely ignored in the grand scheme of things. Mostly blockers, the duo commonly operates short or as safety valves underneath. In terms of Catching Success Rate, Forristall is a safe as they come. His 61.5% clip is even better than Smith’s overall figure. It’s possible Jones will be more inclined to check down to these guys, but I wouldn’t expect either to crack 25 targets in 2020. Alabama deployed 12 personnel on almost a third of its snaps last season. Their 32.1% Usage Rate led the SEC as did the Tide's 58.6% Success Rate. Just because their tight ends don't show up much in the box score, doesn't mean they don't provide value in other ways.
Rushers:
Alabama owned the SEC’s most successful run game within conference play last year with a scorching 57.3% clip. That was mostly a byproduct of their lead back Najee Harris. The soon-to-be-senior owns the top Success Rate, First Down+Touchdown Rate, and Explosive Run Rate while being top5 in Yards/Carry and Broken Tackle Rate amongst SEC returners with at least 30 attempts. He also accounted for 12% of the team’s targets within league play catching 75% of his tries in the process. Harris is very much expected to be Alabama’s bell cow back. Last year, he accounted for over half of his team’s carries against SEC foes more than doubling the next back’s total. 2020 should be more of the same due to his previous outputs. I mean, I could go on and on about his prowess. But I think this bit sums it up nicely. Of returning SEC backs, his aforementioned Success Rate, First Down+TD Rate, and Explosive Run Rate best the next clips in line by 11.7, 8.1, and 4.8 percentage points, respectively.
He will be relieved from time to time from the Robinsons. Brian Robinson dealt with a terrible 1.90 yards before contact mark that hindered his overall output. But, he still found success on 55% of his runs and averaged more yards after contact than Harris. Kelian Robinson as the tertiary option needs to up his production from 2019. While he too suffered from a dismal yards before contact clip, his small frame couldn’t escape SEC defenders too often. No SECer with at least 20 carries in league play saw a lower Yards/Carry, and his 33.3% Success Rate was bottom6 worthy.
Glancing at the O-Line:
Alabama’s line was much better at pass blocking than mauling last year despite its high Success Rate. As you might guess by Jones’ low Pressure Rate, the Tide’s 23.1% clip versus SEC defenses is the conference’s best ahead of 2020. Plus, their 1.92% Sack Rate holds the silver medal. While the group collectively may not have been one of the best in the Saban era, plenty of dizzying tactics and electric play makers kept defenses at bay.Those traits along with great decision-making quarterbacks produced a league-leading 10.9% Pass Havoc Rate Allowed. Running the ball, Alabama ranked 7th versus conference defenses in yards before contact, but they still managed to placed 5th in Yards/Carry thanks to breakaways. Stylistically, It remains to be seen if Alabama will continue to lean into the power run stuff or allow zone blocking schemes to see healthy reps in their goal to keep opponents off-balanced. The Tide looks to replace its starters on the right side. Left to right, their starters project to be standout Alex Leatherwood, Emil Ekiyor Jr, Landon Dickerson, Deonte Brown, and Evan Neal.
Key Offensive Team Stats in SEC Play:
The most important stats for Alabama to maintain against SEC defenses are its Explosive Play Rate and 3rd Down Success Rate. Even LSU’s historic offense looked up to the Crimson Tide’s 1.19 points/play in SEC play. Alabama’s ability to consistently capture chunk gains was a big reason why. Overall, 17.4% of their plays were either a 20-plus completion through the air or a 10-plus run on the ground. In turn, this potency helped Bama’s 3-and-Out Rate and Touchdown Rate sit inside the conference’s top2. And while Alabama was one of the best early down offenses around, their ability to take care of business on the money down made them even more formidable. In league play last year, their 53.1% Conversion Rate bested all others. Though 3rd Downs ought to be avoided, successful teams tend to win these battles more often than falling flat.
The most important stats for Alabama to improve against conference defenses are its rush yards before contact and Run Havoc Rate allowed. Sure, they were far from pathetic in these metrics last fall. But if Najee Harris and their backs are given less obstacles in their path, it will undoubtedly make this unit a tougher one to stop. Both Harris and Brian Robinson saw over 12% of their runs against SEC defenses result in a loss in 2019. Though those two posted nearly identical YAC averages and Broken Tackle Rates in the upper echelon of backs, I’m sure they’d bust off more big gainers with increased cushion. Alabama easily managed to be the SEC’s most successful rushing offense against conference opponents despite being mediocre in allowing Havoc and creating yards before contact on their carries last year. If those elements even only slightly improve year over year, I love their run game’s chances moving forward.
Key Defensive Team Stats in SEC Play:
The most important stats for Alabama’s defense to maintain against SEC offenses are its Pressure Rate and Explosive Pass Rate Allowed. Both their 28.2% and 6.69% respective clips led the SEC and helped Alabama cope being wishy-washy down-to-down. If Alabama’s defense can keep up the heat and force teams into mistakes, it won’t matter allowing a middle-of-the-road amount of yards/game won't matter as much. A good amount of the quarterbacks Alabama will face displayed high-end verticality, but a number of them can be careless with the ball. Replicating their ability to fluster and bottle up passing games from 2019 is a must.
The most important stats for Alabama’s defense to improve versus conference offenses are its rush yards before contact and 3-and-Out Rate Forced. A young and uncharacteristically undisciplined Nick Saban defense allowed 2.5 yards before contact in SEC play. That was good for 3rd-worst. If that can be addressed, it will fix a lot of other issues this unit had curbing the ground game. Both their Defensive Rushing Success Rate, Explosive Run Rate Allowed and Yards/Carry Allowed fell in the back half of the conference. If the Tide can engage ball carriers earlier, backs will have a harder time breaking away. To that point, Alabama's Tackle% and rush yards after contact average against SEC offenses were both top5 last season. It remains to be seen if Alabama’s defense will be on the field as much as they were last year. But winning the initial series is a start on how to prevent potential fatigue. The Tide has to do a better job of stopping opponent’s drives before they get going. Less than a third of Alabama’s defensive drives versus SEC offenses forced a 3-and-out. Only five other conference teams were worse at doing so in 2019.
Alabama's 2020 Schedule:
Alabama has a middle-of-the-road schedule as far as the updated SP+ Ratings are concerned. Bookended by the conference's two worst teams, the vast majority of their key games are at home. Alabama will host Texas A&M, Georgia, Mississippi State, Kentucky, and arch-rival Auburn. Three of those bad boys fall into the preseason-top11. Outside of traveling to Baton Rouge, the Crimson Tide has a rather manageable road slate. Though Alabama's defense was inconsistent last year, it should find more success this season only facing two top20 preseason offenses: LSU and TAMU. The Tide face three that rank between 30th and 40th: Georgia, Ole Miss, and Kentucky. All three of those teams will be undergoing either a new scheme change or some type of uncertainty with their quarterbacks. Despite being mediocre in a number of spots defensively in SEC play last year, the SP+ feels Nick Saban's pedigree and emerging talent are enough to grant the Tide a top20 ranking to begin the year.
As the preseason favorite to rule this conference, Alabama rocks the best Overall and Offensive SP+ Ratings to start the year. Whether you're high on Mac Jones or not, that shouldn't matter looking at all the play makers they have within their ranks. Having the most dependable back in college football certainly makes the whole shebang work swimmingly. Outside of being the SEC's most successful rusher back-to-back seasons, Najee Harris is yet to log a career fumble. Half of their opponents rank in the top20 defensively with Georgia, Auburn, and Tennessee being top10.
Though a couple of trap games and interesting matchups are on their schedule, the SP+ projects Alabama to have a double-digit margin of victory in eight of their ten games. The initial SP+ expects only the Georgia and LSU games to be single-digit differentials on the scoreboard. Now this doesn't mean the game lines will be set around those margins. That's just how much the metric thinks the Tide wins by at this point in time based on carryover data from 2018 as well as nuggets gathered from the preseason. Circumstances will most likely change once games are played. Alabama's win total has been set at 9. As overwhelming favorites in most of their games, that's as high as you can get all else considered. For betting purposes, it wouldn't make much sense for a bookie to have them go undefeated as the starting point.
Before I soldier on, I probably should explain what the SP+ Ratings are a little bit. Defining the SP+ in a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. ESPN's Bill Connelly's metric is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. That is important to remember. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise. Using the initial ratings, let's check out how Alabama's schedule stacks up.
WEEK 1:
Alabama @ Missouri: Projected Margin Alabama by 21
Missouri’s strength is on its defense, which will be immediately tested by the SP+’s best offense. As good as the Tigers’ down-to-down defense was in 2019, they sported a bottom5 Explosive Pass Rate in SEC play. Of course, the Tide manufactured big plays against practically everyone they played last year and return two of the conferences most incendiary receivers. Offensively, Missouri will start the season in the triple-digits in the SP+. Outside of the figuring out who’ll be the starting quarterback, Missouri returns the least successful rushing offense in SEC play last year. While the Tigers might be able to seize some cushion from the defense that allowed the 3rd-worst yards before contact average in SEC play, Mizzou and their inexperienced passers look to be walloped by the scheme that generated the best Sack Rate in 2018 and Pressure Rate in 2019 versus conference offenses.
WEEK 2:
Texas A&M @ Alabama: Projected Margin Alabama by 12
One of the better matchups in Week 2, both TAMU and the Tide are top20 on both sides of the ball per the SP+. Alabama’s defense lost ground this offseason dropping from 8th in the initial ratings to 19th in the September revision. Playing an offense ranked in the bottom25 nationally in Week 1 certainly won’t be a barometer of this team’s ability. With the 8th-best Defensive Success Rate in SEC play last year, Alabama was certainly wishy-washy on that side of the ball. But, it has yet to be bested by Jimbo’s offense. This is Kellen Mond’s last crack at the Tide, and he’s yearning to shed off perceptions he “can’t win the big one”. If the SEC’s best defense at limiting explosive passes replicates their play from last year, Texas A&M’s projected margin of defeat looks about right. The Aggies’ finished with the 2nd-worst Explosive Pass Rate in SEC play. In order for them to have a chance, they’ll have to match Alabama’s big-play offense with chunk plays of their own. That might be hard to come by against the secondary that sported the best Explosive Pass Rate in league play last year.
WEEK 3:
Alabama @ Ole Miss: Projected Margin Alabama by 18
Alabama is the easy favorite going into this one. Ole Miss sits outside the SP+ top35 on both sides of the ball. But, Alabama isn’t infallible. One of the Tide’s weak spots last year was stopping the run. In SEC play, they finished in the bottom5 in Yards/Carry and ranked 7th in Defensive Rush Success Rate and Explosive Run Rate. If the Rebels lean into the run, maybe they can bust some big ones and keep it close. Plus, I’m sure Lane Kiffin has some fun stuff planned for his former boss. That said, it’s ludicrous to think Nick Saban won’t have a plan ready for stuffing Ole Miss’s one-dimensional offense with extra time to prepare…especially with Joey Freshwater on the opposite sideline. Offensively, the Tide should roll against a unit that was bottom5 in Defensive Explosive Play Rate, Touchdown Rate, and 3-and-Out Rate in league play last year.
WEEK 4:
Georgia @ Alabama: Projected Margin Alabama by 6.5
In a week featuring plenty of action, Alabama hosting Georgia could be a SEC championship game preview. Not a bad capper to end the first month of play. Thanks to the home field advantage, the SP+ figures the Tide will win by a little more than a touchdown. Though somewhat of a running theme until things can be settled on the field, the Dawgs start the season outside the top30 offensively. The Tide, of course, are top10 on defense. Georgia could make noise with their run game as the Alabama allowed the 3rd-highest rush yards before contact average in SEC play. But Alabama’s backend . Still, the focus will be on the nation’s best offense and defense squaring off. This game will feature the SEC’s only defense that allowed less than 8% of its snaps to allow either 20+ through the air or 10+ on the ground versus the only conference offense to sport an Explosive Play Rate over 17% in league play. As far as the preseason SP+ sees things, this is Alabama’s closest margin all year.
WEEK 5:
Alabama @ Tennessee: Projected Margin Alabama by 11
Tennessee often banks on winning the explosive play battle through the air to fuel their victories. On both sides of the ball, the Vols placed 2nd within SEC play regarding explosive passes but were bottom5 in overall Success Rate. Maybe the Vols are more consistent by this point, but there’s no doubt they will lean on splash plays to win. The problem is, however, Alabama was the top-ranked explosive team in both facets. Not only does Alabama have the better overall team, they trump the Vols in what they do the very best. Tennessee’s defense at home might make things a little difficult, but the best team in the country is projected to win by about two scores.
WEEK 6:
Mississippi State @ Alabama: Projected Margin Alabama by 28
The SP+ thinks this game will be a total blowout. Since Alabama rocks the nation’s top offense entering the year and the Bulldogs have the worst defense in the conference, the numbers don’t look too good for Mississippi State. Despite a top25 offense, there are major concerns around MSU’s ability to pass block. No team was better than Alabama at generating pressure on any given pass attempt than the Tide in SEC play last year. The more they’re bound to create duress, the more likely something catastrophic happens for the offense; especially considering KJ Costello proclivity to put the ball into harms way when facing a rusher. Still if MSU’s line comes to play, the Air Raid could surgically move the ball versus a unit that was middle-of-the-road situationally in SEC play a year ago. Though Mike Leach might have some wrinkles, the initial prognosis doesn’t indicate his first trip to Tuscaloosa will end well.
WEEK 7:
BYE WEEK
WEEK 8:
Alabama @ LSU: Projected Margin Alabama by 7.5
One of the most anticipated games of the season and the highlight of Week 8, Alabama will travel to Baton Rouge looking to avenge last season’s loss. Like last year, the SP+ likes the Tide by a modest margin. Since the initial SP+ released in February, both LSU’s offense and Alabama’s defense dropped in the rankings. Regardless, the Tide enters better on both sides of the ball. Alabama will be LSU’s fourth straight top25 defensive opponent. If Brennan can get the Bayou Bengals to this point unscathed, obviously it would be quite an achievement. LSU will live or die based on how well its offense preforms. Their defense looks to be good not great. Regression at this point is all but certain for them on both sides of the ball. That said, the Tigers have potential to win any given Saturday. The Tide’s Defensive Explosive Pass Rate led the SEC last year, which is worrisome for LSU. Though Alabama has a preferable margin in every one of its games, ESPN’s metrics project the Tide to lose two games. While they should enter as comfortable favorites, a road game against quality team is no sure thing for Alabama.
WEEK 9:
Kentucky @ Alabama: Projected Margin Alabama by 19
The Big Blue Wall versus Nick Saban’s defense is an interesting matchup. Of course this is looking at last year, but the Tide sported the 5th-worst Yards/Carry in SEC play with a pedestrian Defensive Rushing Success Rate and Explosive Run Rate to boot. For UK’s line that returns four starters, all of whom are among Pro Football Focus’ top7 graded lineman, a real opportunity to upset the Tide exists. While the Cats averaged the 3rd-best rush yards before contact clip in SEC play, Alabama’s defense averaged the 3rd worst mark on their side of the ball. Kentucky’s defense is capable enough to win small. And, they allowed the conference’s 2nd-lowest Yards/Pass on a top4 Success Rate. The Cats face Alabama after the Tide takes on LSU and before the Iron Bowl. This is a perfect recipe for UK to play spoiler. That said, it’s all wishful thinking. Kentucky isn’t a good tackling team or sound at run defense. Alabama can absolutely roll over the Wildcats with Najee Harris and their elite receivers doing work in the open field. Still, the Cats shouldn’t be taken too lightly despite a projected 19 point margin.
WEEK 10:
Auburn @ Alabama: Projected Margin Alabama by 13.5
In most rivalry games, metrics and trends are often thrown out the window. But since we are here, the SP+ figures Alabama will win by about two touchdowns hosting the Tigers in Week 10. The highlight matchup will be Alabama’s high-octane offense against the Tigers’ Steele Curtain defense. In case you forgot, Alabama really didn’t have too many issues moving the ball in 2019 with Mac Jones. The Tide averaged nearly a yard more per play and saw their Offensive Success Rate trump Auburn’s by nearly 12 percentage points head-to-head. But the defense with a top3 Havoc Rate and Takeaway Rate in SEC play ruled the day creating a couple of crucial turnovers. Alabama’s defense and the Tigers’ offense stand to each to be better in 2020. As of today, the analytics favor Nick Saban's bunch over Chad Morris’. Still If Alabama is so woefully mediocre down-to-down again against conference offenses, they’re bound to suffer more than one loss this fall. Likewise, Alabama’s D must get better on the money down. Versus SEC opponents, they sported the 4th-worst 3rd Down Conversion Rate; the Tigers’ offense finished with the 4th-best offensively. Their 38.8% clip against Alabama last year was right at their conference-play average. Auburn was able to squeak by in the Iron Bowl last year winning within the margins and obviously taking advantage with those aforementioned takeaways. With last year’s defeat still fresh in their mouths, however, Alabama should come out blazing. While the Tide close their regular season with Arkansas, War Eagle will have a tossup game with Texas A&M.
WEEK 11:
Alabama @ Arkansas: Projected Margin Alabama by 31
Alabama gets the luxury of closing its regular season against the division’s worst team. Arkansas, who will be battered and bruised by the end of their challenging schedule, should be no match for Alabama. If the Tide happens to lose its second-straight Iron Bowl, they’ll certainly take out their anger on the Hogs. If they reach this point unscathed, Alabama will likely want to finish on a high note. Outside of Missouri’s offense and Mississippi State’s defense, Arkansas’ two units will be the worst the Tide face on either side of the ball. For the 2nd-best preseason team in the country, Alabama will probably kick Arkansas’ ass handedly to conclude the 2020 SEC slate with help of its dynamos and sturdy run game.
For more information on Alabama's schemes, scripts, and stats visit the following links: