The Florida-Georgia rivalry is no stranger to having serious stakes attached. The winner of this game has won the SEC East crown 11 times the past twenty years. Over the last decade, its importance has intensified as eight of the last 11 winners have represented the division in Atlanta. 

Saturday's edition of the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party will be the seventh game in the series where both schools will come in as Top10 teams. Despite both already sporting an L, the game has not lost any of its luster. Sure, the winner will be expected to challenge whoever comes out of the West in December and the loser shall have to deal with a death blow to their postseason hopes. Neither will be satisfied with just another SEC East Title. Both still have their sights set on a playoff spot, and it's a certainty that potential bid will bid adieu if another loss winds up on either team's resume. 

The War for the Oar is upon us. 

Florida at a Glance

If you had to know any one thing about this Florida offense, it would be the fact that the Gators have the worst run game in the SEC. Really. They are dead last in the conference in Overall, 1st Down, and 3rd Down Rushing Success Rate. So the fact that this team is still fighting for a SEC East Title and potential playoff bid is a testament to Kyle Trask's ability to sling it. 

Forging consistent run lanes has kept this unit from taking the leap. Florida averages 1.61 yards before contact on their designed runs; the SEC average is 2.42. It's sure as hell easier to run the ball when you don't have to immediately deal with tacklers upon crossing the line of scrimmage. So, their ball carriers deserve a good deal of credit for manufacturing a 3.39 yards AFTER contact clip, which is almost a half yard higher than the SEC average. But with early engagement rates for their rushers, the natural degree of difficulty for them is much higher. As a result, LaMichael Perine, Dameon Pierce, and Malik Davis are in the bottom dozen among SEC backs in terms of Success Rate, First Down Rate, and Broken Tackle Rate. 

Inside Zone Slam Reads compose nearly 12% of their overall offensive reps but have rancid returns. Entering Week 10, these plays have only a 4.3 yards/carry average and 23.8% Success Rate. To start series and when trying to gain a conversion, they've been even worse. Inside Zone Slam Reads' 1st Down and 3rd Down Success Rates are 12.9% and 14.3%, respectfully. They are far and away the most popular look for the Gators on 1st Downs and get the second most reps on the money down of any concept. So as long as these plays are fully healthy on the play sheet, an obvious hindrance to their run game will exist. 

Dan Mullen has done number of things to ensure this run game doesn't cripple his offense. While Florida joins a vast majority of teams that script Slam Reads as their most called concept, a cavalcade of concepts have kept defenses guessing when the Gators haven't aimed to slash fronts with their bread and butter run play particularly on 1st Downs. Slam Reads have gotten the most reps on 1st Downs with 31. But outside of them, 11 other looks have gotten between eight and six calls. While most offenses lean on five or six plays types, Mullen has been a much harder play-caller to prognosticate. As a result, eight of those 11 subconcepts have Success Rates north of 50% with three of them being runs. 

Two of them are Power and Power Reads. While practically the same play, both are charted differently for our purposes. Overall and on 1st Downs, Powers and Power Reads get the second and third most reps. Since Kyle Trask has been installed and especially since hurting his knee, Power Reads have faded. Since their game against Kentucky, they've received four calls compared to 12 prior to that point. While just as succesful as their non-read counterparts to start series, true one-guard pulling Powers have been far more explosive. Power Reads average 4.75 yards per pop compared to 12.0 on non-read Power runs. 

As an aside, I must mention since Trask's injury, the QB run portion of their RPOs have all but vanished. So while they lack the "read" aspect in the run game, a good portion of Power run reps have pass tags along with them as with the Slam Reads. Even without the treat of Trask's legs, Florida is able to maintain itself as a heavy Run-Pass Option offense; UF currently has the SEC's third highest RPO rate.

Overall true Powers have only been out-gained by Inside Zone Slam Reads, which only hold the top spot by sheer volume of their chances. And, no other subconcept in their seven most-called looks has a higher per play average. It's clear Mullen is keeping the faith on Slam Reads in this offense, but he should greatly increase the number of Power runs in the Gator's script. When you have the worst first down run game in terms of success in the conference, its time to lean on the stuff that's been working rather than doubling down on past staples. Over half of both Florida's true Power reps and yardage came against South Carolina two weeks ago. So it remains to be seen if they'll become part of the normal modus operandi or if it was just a standalone gameplan against a SEC East foe. 

Duo Jabs and Outside Zone Reads have failed to get the job done when called. Duo Jabs are the Gators' fifth most called play and yet are only successful on 13.3% of their chances and average 2.27 yards per carry. While less crappy, Outside Zone Reads still leave much to be desired in terms of production. While largely part of Mullen's menagerie on 1st Downs, Outside Zone Reads only have a 37.5% Success Rates on those downs. Inside Split Zones are the only zone run subconcept Florida has executed adequately that composes at least 2% of their offensive plays. These looks have yielded a Success Rate of 50% Overall and average 5.25 yards/carry. 

Screens have been a big aspect to aid their ground game. Only South Carolina's Ryan Hilinski has a higher Screen Rate than Trask amongst SEC starting quarterbacks. While Outlet Screens like Bubbles, Tunnels, and Swings get targets on RPO throws, Jailbreak Screens alone have gained the fourth most yards and get the fourth most reps for Florida. It's often a cliche coaching move to call a Jailbreak Screen on the money down when behind the chains. So teams are on the look-out for them more in those instances. But, it just so happens Jailbreaks have been dialed up the more than any other concept for the Gators on the money down. The results have not been spectacular. 

Though Florida has generated some big plays catching teams off-guard with well-timed Jailbreaks to start series, their 3rd Down Success Rate on them is 33.3% with a 6.22 clip compared to 66.7% with a 15.5 yards/attempt average on Firsts. 

Florida has the 5th best Offensive Success Rate in the SEC solely because of its passing game. Trask has been one of the best downfield passers in the conference and has earned the trust of his playcaller to dial up more dropback pass patterns. Only LSU's Joe Burrow and Alabama's Tua Tagovailoa have a better Accuracy%, Adjusted Completion%, and Passing Success Rate than Trask among SEC starters entering Week 10. Pretty good company, no?

While Screens and RPOs help pad some short completions, Trask has had a good deal success on a number of pass concepts. Smash, Slant, and Switch Variations are all concepts that have yielded Success Rates north of 50%. True Smashes alone have a 73.3% clip and are responsible for 125 yards; fifth most of any look. Scissor Switches have gained the sixth most yards for them and are successful on half of their targets. Slants have been effective manbeating designs accumulating 181 yards when all the variations are pooled together.

Florida also happens to be a good team running All Vert patterns. Though a relatively aggressive play with a low success rate, four of Trasks five targets ended up in a completion (Franks connected on 2 of his 5 attempts). Sacks and scrambles have curbed this look's overall production but All Verts have still totaled the third most yards of any look for Florida.

Despite one of the higher Pass Rates and lowly Rushing Success Rate, Florida loves to use play fakes to facilitate its passing. Trask currently has the highest Play Action Rate in the SEC. This is a byproduct of playing for Mullen as Feleipe Franks had the highest rate last year and one of the highest before his season ended. 

While his downfield ball placement has taken a dip by playing more SEC foes and dealing with a knee sprain, Trask has shown he's up to the task to lead this offense. With their struggling run game, Florida is the 4th most pass-happy SEC offense on first downs. Florida is among the leaders in passing success, but their run game makes them a rather mediocre unit to start series. The Swamp Dwellers post a 1st down Passing Success Rate of 52.3% compared to a 34.8% Rushing Success Rate. 

On 3rd Downs, their Passing and Rushing Success Rates are similar but they are relatively better through the air when glancing around the rest of the conference. Florida's 45.1% Passing Success Rate on the money down is the SEC's third best clip while their 40.7% Rushing Success Rate is dead last. Overall, they have the nation's 30th best 3rd Down Conversion Rate. Too bad they'll be playing a Top15 3rd Down defense in Georgia. 

A few weeks back, Florida's defense looked as capable as any unit in the country. Since then, they've been bruised due to injuries and so-so execution. On the surface, there's a lot of things they still do very well. But the Gators' Defensive Success Rate against conference foes ranks 8th within the SEC including being 4th worst against the pass. They are bottom5 within the conference in Havoc Rate and Early Down Conversion Rate and are average nationally in 3rd Down Defense. Still, Todd Grantham's unit is 25th in Total Defense, 17th in ESPN's SP+, 6th in Takeaways, 3rd in Red Zone Defense, and 12th in Scoring Defense. 

Against SEC offenses, they are one of the best at forcing Three-and-Outs and average the least amount of plays/drive. They also have the 5th best Defensive Success Rate against the run. These metrics will be put to the test against the Bulldogs who currently boast the SEC's most successful rush attack, the lowest Three-and-Out Rate, lowest Havoc Rate Allowed, highest First Down Rate, and highest plays/drive average. 

Emerging Pitts

In the early part of the season, Florida often rode the hot hand from game to game on who would be targeted the most. In their first six games, five different players led the Gators in targets. But over the last month, one of their many weapons has emerged as a favorite for Kyle Trask, Kyle Pitts. Ever since their game with Auburn, Pitts has led Florida in targets each week. 

Pitts' athleticism has allowed him to be a versatile target rather than just being a threat down the seam or a safety blanket on an underneath curl. A good amount of his targeted routes have been on manbeaters like slants, skinny posts, and slides. But he also has seen chances on digs, corners, and seams in addition to a couple of hitch-n-goes. 

Since he is a tight end, he has moved around the field based on what the formation calls for. But while lining up as an end, he has also seen targets out wide and in the slot. Yet, his best production has been on targets on the left side of the field where he's caught 70% of his short targets, 89% of his intermediate targets, and one of his two deep targets. 

With Trask displaying good accuracy the two have developed a sturdy connection. Though its not the most successful, explosive, or surefire one Trask has with his options, it's definitely one he trusts the most. If it wasn't, Pitts certainly wouldn't lead the team in Red Zone targets. And Pitts has come through more often than not when points are on the line. Of SEC players with at least 10 Red Zone targets, Pitts is the only one with a Success Rate 60% or better. Plus four of his six success targets have resulted in scores. 

Being a natural matchup problem, Pitts might soon get bracketed and open up other one:one opportunities for Van Jefferson, Tyrie Cleveland, or Trevon Grimes outside or Josh Hammond or Freddie Swain from the slot. Not many offenses have so many guys that can get a step and make you pay in a flash like Florida does. Georgia has yet to play a receiving corp as deep or capable as this Gator unit and their #1 Defensive Passing Success Rate will meet its first real test of the season. 

Georgia at a Glance

While not as run-heavy in the script as years passed, make no mistake that puncturing fronts with their backs is Georgia's offensive identity. You can talk about Jake Fromm all you want. But if the Bulldogs can't ground and pound to their liking, things usually end poorly for them. They are one of the few teams that continue to effectively operate under the traditional mentality of running to open up the pass. 

Georgia has the SEC's 4th highest Run Rate. Entering Week 10, no SEC offense is as succesful running the rock than Georgia. This has enabled them to have the 3rd best Offensive Success Rate in the SEC. UGA has the conference's 3rd best Passing Success Rate, too. So it's not like Jake Fromm was been sucking week in and week out. 

Lead by their run-first approach and bully lineplay, Georgia has the SEC's lowest Three-and-Out Rate, Negative Play Rate, Sack Rate, and Havoc Rate Allowed with the best First Down Rate and Red Zone Success Rate. For good measure, the Dawgs are also Top3 in Explosive Play Rate and Scoring Rate within the conference. Not too shabby.

Schematically, Georgia is fueled by zone runs. Four of the Dawgs six most called subconcepts are zone plays. Like a lot of programs, Inside Zone Slam Reads make up the majority of their play calls. Furthermore when including non-read Slams, a whopping 25% of their offensive reps are these plays. While UGA is among the top performers on true Inside Zones, no one is more successful running Inside Zone Reads than the Dawgs. 

Slam Reads hit their goals 53.3% of the time while the non-read variety are successful on 51.6% of reps. So, it should be no shock that both of these looks are Georgia's top two looks on first downs. Both subconcepts are even more fruitful compared to their overall clips when starting series. Slam Reads and true Slams 1st Down Success Rates are 55.3% and 57.9%, respectfully. 

With a good deal of chances for the pair, they have been able to gobble up plenty of gains. Slam Reads have seized more yardage than any concept for the Dawgs with 580 and true Slams have added an additional 182.

Inside Split Zones and Off Tackle Zones join Slams among UGA's most represented looks in their calls. Honestly, their Outside Zone execution has been spotty, but the Dawgs have been phenomenal running Split Zones. But like Slams, both of these plays have faired better on 1st down when compared to their overall output. Off Tackles gain 7.33 yards/attempt on a 55.6% Success Rate to start series compared to a 5.0 yards/attempt and 35.7% clip across all downs. Split Zones are even more incendiary on firsts. Their yards/attempt increases from 8.0 to 9.13 with its Success Rate rising from 73.3% to 87.5%. Georgia is on another level with their zone play execution, which makes them one of the hardest teams to get behind the chains due to their ability to run these looks at so successfully. 

Duo Dives get their fair share of calls and get the 4th most reps for this offense. These plays are gap scheme runs and provide a change up to their normal gameplan on the ground. But unlike the aforementioned zone plays, Duo Dives don't have the best returns. Both their 1st Down and overall Success Rates are 37.5% while averaging less than 3.8 yards/attempt.  

As a rush-first team with efficiencies higher on 1st Down chances for four of their five most called runs, you can deduce Georgia is one of the most successful teams to start series. Georgia is the only team in the conference with a 1st Down Success Rate over 60%. And yes, their Rushing Success Rate is tops. 

Jake Fromm is still one of the better quarterbacks in the SEC and does his best work on 1st Downs. Only LSU has a better 1st Down Passing Success Rate than the Dawgs. But in terms of comprehensive calls, only one pass pattern is among UGA's most called looks: Hoss, which is a curl+seam combo. Hoss has received the 3rd most reps and is currently responsible for the 3rd most of James Coley's unit's yardage. Averaging over 9 yards per pop, it's a design the risk-adverse Fromm has excelled executing often hitting a curl along the sideline. Hoss has been successful on 59% of its targets. 

Smash Variations are another useful concept for Georgia. When all of its subconcepts are combined, Smashes total 184 yards, which would lead all other passes. The Corners subconcept is a favorite two-minute drill play and as a series starter. This inverted Smash design has met its goals on 63.6% of its targets on 1st Downs. Benches are the one of only two pass concept with at least four 3rd Down calls to exceed a 50% Success Rate on the money down for the Dawgs. 

The other to do so is the Drive concept, which have been their best look period on Thirds. Drives have gotten the second most reps and post a 66.7% Success Rate and 12.2 yards/attempt. Overall, Drives are among the Dawgs best at gaining yardage. With the drag giving Fromm a hot route and a low-risk option, Drives have accumulated 123 yards, good for the 5th most. 

Momentarily circling back to the ground game, it bears mentioning Georgia takes an unconventional approach with its misdirections. Instead of balancing out zone looks with Counters or other gap plays that pull lineman, Georgia uses Draws, Jet Sweeps, and Nakie Reads to prevent fronts from fully expecting zone action. All three of these are more potent in terms of yards/attempt and Success Rate than their leading zones. 

Draws are among their most called on 3rd Downs but like a good portion of their plays, they are far more efficient on early downs. Overall, Draws are successful 55.6% of the time. Six of the nine Jet Sweeps have met their goals while averaging 8.44 yards/attempt.

Nakie Reads have been a very effective wrinkle for the Dawgs. We chart these as an Outside Power Read because of how they're blocked for the running back. But in actuality, they are Zone Reads with flopped run lanes for the back and QB. On a normal Zone Read, the back works towards the zone action playside with the QB being left with a naked bootleg backside. Depending on how a key defender reacts determines whether or not the QB will hand it off or keep it for himself. On Nakie Reads, the line blocks their zone flow towards the QB's path with the back attacking the edge of the formation without any blockers. In Georgia's case, their backs often catch the end man on the line of scrimmage flat footed as they speed past en route to the sideline. With a de facto gap created by the zone flow for the back, we decided to chart it as a Power play even though its blocked like a zone. 

Georgia has called 13 Nakie Reads and the look has been responsible for the fourth most yards of any concept for them on the year with 139 on a 76.9% Success Rate. Despite being unordinary, this ground game has found a number of ways to slash and gash defenses with misdirections. 

Georgia is unmatched in its early down efficiency running the ball but are in the SEC's bottom 5 in 3rd Down Rushing Success Rate even though over half of these chances gain a conversion. This has made them an average 3rd Down team within the conference. Even though UGA has only gained a conversion on 39.3% of their dropbacks, that clip is good for the SEC's fourth best on the money down. 

Defensively, Georgia is a very sturdy squad without much WOW factor. Coming in, the have the 7th best Total Defense and are ranked 4th in ESPN SP+ metric. They are currently 55th in Sacks/Gm and 92nd in Takeaways nationally. But Georgia consistently win their battles. They have the top Defensive Red Zone%, 5th best Scoring Defense, and 15th best 3rd Down Defense in college football. Plus, they have the lowest TD Allowed Rate, 3rd lowest Explosive Play Rate Allowed, and 4th best Havoc Rate against SEC competition.More importantly, only Missouri has a better Defensive Success Rate against conference foes with the Dawgs being the best team against the pass. That's bad news for a Florida team that is overly dependent to get production out of their dropbacks with a struggling run game. 

But as aforementioned, Inside Power runs can be a major area of opportunity for Florida. Georgia's Defensive Rushing Success Rate is rather average within the conference. And when facing Inside Power runs from other SEC teams, Georgia is tied with Tennessee for allowing the highest rate of success on such plays entering Week 10. The subconcept might not bring this defense to its knees, but there's enough evidence out there to suggest Florida can find production in this regard against the Dawgs. 

Jake Fromm Year Over Year

Jake Fromm hoped to make his Junior campaign a season to remember. With championship aspirations and a decent amount of returning weapons, many assumed he would hit the ground running and pick up where he left off last season. Fromm lead the SEC in Passing Success Rate and was a top3 performer in a number of areas such as Depth Adjusted Accuracy, Passing TD Rate, and Adjusted Completion Percentage in 2018. His 2019 has failed to see him make the leap or live up to some talking heads' opinions that he is worthy of a first round pick come April's draft. 

While he has the Dawgs in the middle of the discussion for a SEC East Title, a midseason loss to South Carolina was a major bruise to his resume. In that game, Georgia seemingly abandoned its highly efficient ground game in favor for Fromm's arm; it ended poorly and Fromm crumbled down the stretch. Often labeled as a "game manager" or someone with a limited skill set, winning ballgames has shut his critics up for the most part. After that, the boo birds and dissenters let their voices heard.

Despite another offseason becoming familiar with their scheme and to improve his draft stock, his on-field passing has mostly stagnated while regressing in other areas. Production from a clean pocket is a good amount of people's favorite way to forecast a QB's professional outlook. The thinking is "when all conditions are perfect, how well can this guy throw". Unlike pressured dropbacks that can have a good deal of variables that could affect the outcome of a pass attempt, clean pockets reflect a more consistent product down-to-down. 

While his 2019 slate still has challenging games, Fromm has been a worse downfield passer year over year in terms of accuracy. Out of clean pockets, his Depth Adjusted Accuracy Percentage - which applies more weight the further a pass travels - has dropped from 61.1% to 41.8%, his Passing TD Rate has nearly been cut in half, and his Explosive Pass Rate has taken a major hit. While some will argue that losing squadmates to the NFL are to blame for this, top level passers should be able to be accurate no matter who their targets are. Plus, it's not like UGA's cupboard is bare offensively. 

Like last year, his performance has been okay against pressure in a number of spots but his down-to-down rate of success is far worse this season than last. While it's concerning he is one of least successful passers in the SEC under duress right now, his regression as a downfield passer should be much more alarming. Since most of his accuracy and other figures are constant, he's been who he's always been against pressure. Like I mentioned, there are a lot more variables on pressured dropbacks than clean ones. 

It could be that Fromm plans to play his senior season in Athens to which all this would be a mute point. But if he wants to declare for the draft and be a professional passer, his downfield ball placement must improve out of his clean pockets. Padding completions with checkdowns and screens won't do the trick either. That is the beauty of Depth Adjusted Accuracy%. No stat is better set up to determine how good a passer is at downfield passing than DAA%. 

I think Florida wins if....

They minimize Georgia's run game and make Jake Fromm beat them. There's no doubt the Dawgs will want to come out and establish the run, get a quick score, and let their old-school mentality dictate the flow of the game. While Florida has been shaky against the pass in SEC play, they also have yet to be full strength in quite some time. That being said, Florida has the 5th best Rush Defense Success Rate in the conference with only Missouri and Auburn being more stout on 1st Downs. If they can constantly get UGA to play behind the chains, they might be able to take advantage of Fromm pressing. After all, Florida is 6th nationally in takeaways and Fromm ranks 10th out of 16 SEC passers with at least 20 2nd and 3rd Down attempts with at least 6 yards to gain in Depth Adjusted Accuracy. 

Curbing the SEC's best rushing offense will be no easy task. Florida is already an aggressive-minded defense; no no doubt they will be playing downhill aiming to hit Georgia's backs head on. Luckily for them, Georgia is play action adverse despite being so successful on the ground. Fromm has the 3rd lowest Play Action Rate among SEC starters entering Week 10. So it might be "what ya see is what ya get" kind of day that could invite a heavier box and manning up on the backend. South Carolina followed a great defensive blueprint in their upset a few weeks ago. They picked their battles against Fromm, and eventually won the day by setting it up for him to take them out, which of course he failed to do. 

I think Georgia wins if....

They do what they do best and win on first downs. I talked about how a number of Georgia's offensive concepts see their best numbers when they're run to start series. No SEC offense has a better Early Down Conversion Rate than Georgia, and Florida is currently in the bottom3 in Early Down Conversions Allowed against conference foes. If it gets to 3rd Down, things become much more of a tossup for UGA as they are 7th in Success Rate on these downs compared to being 1st on early downs. Florida has the 4th best Three-and-Out Rate against SEC offenses yet Georgia has the lowest such rate on the offensive side. In the Dawg's case, its direct result of their ability to get splash plays and neutralize fronts. 

If they can maintain manageable situations, they'll be far less likely to force Jake Fromm to be superman or allow Florida's front to pin their ears back. Georgia's OLine has done an exceptional job limiting sacks, negative runs and other Havoc elements from derailing drives so far this season. They'll be just fine so long the Gators don't make them abandon the run.