From where I am sitting, there aren't a whole lot of interesting games on Week 8's slate. Sure, Georgia and Florida will try to rebound and regain their footing in the SEC East, LSU will look to ride it's momentum with eyes set on Alabama, Auburn is coming off its bye with concerns on who will become its bellcow back, and Vanderbilt seems to be in free fall. But in ode to when the Third Saturday in October meant something, we will examine one of the SEC's most championed rivalry games.

For some, this matchup certainly has lost its luster with the Crimson Tide rolling to a dozen straight W's and holding a 20-game lead over the Volunteers. Plus with a 35-point spread prognosticating the outcome, it looks like that margin will widen in Alabama's favor. 

Tennessee at a Glance

Let's first take a look at the visiting Vols and what their offense has to offer. 

I'm not going to sugarcoat or patronize any of you. There is nothing Tennessee's offense really does well at this point. They are either average, below average of near the bottom within the conference in every stat we track. While the run game has shown signs of improvement and is average in terms of Success Rate, the have the lowest yards/rush number of anyone else in the SEC. Failing to get their passing game off the ground consistently has often forced Jeremy Pruitt's and Jim Chaney's hand in terms of offensive play calling. Their Passing Success Rate is currently 9.5% points lower than their Rushing Success Rate and is fourth worst in the conference. 

Zone runs remain the foundation for this unit as they have been using less pulling and lead blockers compared to last year though 7 weeks of play. Tennessee's three most-called looks are Outside Zone Off-Tackles and Inside Zone Slams with and without read elements. Believe it or not, Tennessee is actually putting up respectable numbers on the non-read zone plays. The Vols have averaged 5.81 yards per carry on Off-Tackles and 3.64 yards per carry on Inside Zone Slams with 50% and 53.6% Success Rates, respectfully. But when read elements are incorporated into the equation, Inside Zone Slams' efficiency plummets to a Success Rate of only 18.5% on 3.3 yards per carry. Many factors come into play, but the vast majority of non-read zone looks come from either undercenter or the pistol where it isn't as clear as day to decipher a QB's intentions like out of the shotgun. 

Non-read Off-Tackles and Inside Zone Slams are the Vol's favorite plays to start series. But while Slams basically have been consistent across downs, Off-Tackles' numbers take a hit on first downs where they have only been successful 40.6% of the time. Duo Dives have certainly gotten more reps this season to counteract teams honing in on inside zone looks and because Tennessee has been able to execute them fairly well. Last year, Pruitt wanted to go more old school and pave paths via Fullback Isolations, but these have largely been replaced by Duo Dives in the script. Duo Dives are their 6th most called concept and share the fourth most reps of any look on first downs for Big Orange. Overall, they have the highest Success Rate of any of Tennessee's favorite looks with a 56.3% clip. 

All Verts are one of the most common pass concepts across the country and are many offenses' go-to desperation play. For the Vols, however, All Verts get more reps than any other pass play on first downs. In fact when comparing first and third down production on this look, Tennessee quarterbacks have been able to find their target on 4/11 first down reps compared to only 1/7 on the money down. But overall, the look is not efficient at all due to the very nature of the play design demanding an all or nothing approach. More times than not, Tennessee has walked back to the huddle with nothing. All Verts have only a 24% Success Rate so far for the Vols though 7 weeks. On first downs, All Verts has been called 11 times, which is the third most of any concept for UT. Besides these, Shot Variations like Fades, Divide, and Solo Deep Routes have combined for 10 reps for a 30% Success Rate. The "F*** It. Let's throw a bomb," mentality is very much a part of their offensive approach after grinding teams with Slams, Duo Dives, and Off-Tackles. 

Outside of the deep stuff, Tennessee's passing game has relied on a number of short looks like All Curls, Spacing/Curl+Flat Variations, and Slant Variations. Coincidentally, those are also the Vols' three most targeted pass tags on their RunPass Options despite having the lowest RPO Rate in the SEC. On the combined nine RPO targets, All Curls and Spacing/Curl+Flat Variations have been successful six times with the former averaging 13 yards per pop. While, those looks get play outside of RPOs, they best production have come when paired with a running threat. Though they run the least amount in the SEC, half of Tennessee's called RPOs have ended up as a pass -- the highest rate in the SEC. 

Shot Variations, All Verts, and All Curls are the 3 most potent pass concepts in terms of racking up yardage for Big Orange. Two intermediate concepts are next in line. Smash Variations like Benches, Shakes/Corners, and Traditional Smashes have been successful on six of their 12 calls while Seam+Comeback combos have a 100% Success rate on all five of its targeted reps averaging 9.64 yards per play.

Yet, Tennessee's passing game has largely been a letdown in 2019. As aforementioned, their Rushing Success Rate is higher by a considerable amount than their Passing Success Rate. Despite some fruitful gains and promising production, Tennessee has lacked down-to-down consistency when airing it out that, as you know, has left many to point the fingers at its passers on why things haven't gotten better. 

Jarrett G vs. Maurer Power

Heading into the Georgia game, Tennessee made a bold decision to start its freshman quarterback in favor of another week of Jarrett Guarantano. I criticized the move based on what the young'un had displayed on the field despite a highly limited sample size to that point. I argued he was too turnover prone and lacked the accuracy to be a difference maker. Though my analysis won the day, that didn't stop Maurer from winning the hearts and souls of many a Tennessee supporter from Fulton to Fulmersville despite a very up-and-down debut on Rocky Top. Guarantano was an easy lightning rod for a thirsty fanbase yearning to return to relevance. Though he remains one of the most accurate passers under pressure and one of the best at completing deep balls within the SEC, there wasn't enough down-to-down dependability to justify average to below average play from Guarantano. 

Brian Maurer has not been good in his short stint slinging the pill in the Orange and White. But as I just hinted, that mostly is irrelevant in the eyes of Vol fans looking for bright spots on the horizon. Granted, he is just getting his feet wet and is still developing. 

From where I sit, I have noticed Tennessee has used the two very differently. Despite being the offense with the lowest RPO Rate in the SEC and Guarantano being the least-reliant passer using them, Maurer has the third highest percentage of pass attempts result from an RPO. With that in mind, it seems rather counterintuitive for this next part to be true. Yet, Maurer leads all SEC passers with at least 48 attempts in average depth of target, or how far his man is downfield when thrown the ball on average. RPOs are generally shorter, quicker throws. So when he isn't being given simple designs, he has been granted the greenlight to go deep.

Fans liked to get on Guarantano's case because he was perceived to take a lot of sacks or press things. Going into Week 8, only three starters face more pressure per dropback than Maurer and only one has a higher sack rate. And no, Guarantano is not in that group. Though his sample size is still developing as are his skills, its been a less than auspicious start analytically. 

Maurer remains a game time decision and looking how Tennessee called the game upon his exit against Mississippi State, I think this staff still want to ride or die with him. If they do, they must culitvate his ability to make the most of his chances rather than hoping Alabama's secondary forgets how to cover a Sluggo. Even though he currently has the SEC's third best Explosive Pass Rate, the lack of downfield accuracy is mega-concerning for the remainder of 2019. Plus with the Vols getting more run production and efficiency out of their non-read runs, it's a hard ask to jeopardize ground gains for easy completions for Maurer off RPO tags. Chaney has to earn his paycheck finding the right balance in the script over the back half of the season.  

Alabama at a Glance

Alabama has a entirely different problem on its hands. Rather than trying to find and maximize what is working, they are attempting to keep its well-oiled offense in tact and prepare it for a likely playoff appearance. That could mean occasional missteps or failing to feed one of its many mouths in order to keep positive mojo. 

With the departure of Mike Locksley and the re-insertion of Steve Sarkisian at Offensive Coordinator, RunPass Options have seen quite an uptick in the Tide's script. Despite claims of this offense turning "more pro scheme oriented", I don't know a whole lot of NFL teams where RPOs compose 29% of their play calls. Maybe I am the ignorant one, but I digress. RPOs were responsible for 15.1% of Alabama's offensive plays under Locksley, which is almost half of what they have been through 7 weeks of Sarkisian. While the extra RPOs have been very, very effective at aiding the run game and allowing Alabama's wideouts to get some tasty one:one opportunities, Tua Tagovailoa has not matched his downfield accuracy of yesteryear despite more manageable chances. But we'll talk about him in a bit. 

The foundation of their RPOs has been the Inside Zone Slam, as is the case for the vast majority of offenses. If Alabama wasn't so goshdarn good running that, less room would exist for Ruggs, Smith, Jeudy, and Waddle to do their thing on the perimeter. To date, the Crimson Tide have been successful on a whopping 68% of their Inside Zone Slam Reads while averaging 6.86 yards per pop. Their figures on first downs running this are even more boastful. To start series, Inside Zone Slam Reads hold a 72.7% Success Rate and 8.64 yards/play clip. While Gary Danielson might like to point and laugh and second guess safeties reacting a step to slow from defending the run mesh in favor of a pass tag, its not like Bama hasn't destroyed defenses running the rock. No other concept has generated as much yards for Nick Saban's squad than that heading into Week 8. 

But it's more than just attacking the two or three hole between the guard and tackle with zones. Duo Dives and old school one-guard Powers are also two of the Tide's favorite looks. While Powers are more early down plays and Duo Dives mostly relegated to the money down, the pair have posted Success Rates of 57.1% and 64.7%, respectively. Najee Harris alone remains one of the most successful SEC backs on gap schemes. His 61.8% Success Rate is the most of any SEC runner with at least 15 touches on those play types. 

Plus to make sure teams don't hone in to constipate inside runs, Outside Zone Off-Tackles get a healthy share of the script. These are currently Alabama's second most called look overall behind Inside Zone Slam Reads and have gotten the most reps on first downs with 20. Though they might not be as efficient generally as other runs, a 50% Success Rate on first downs with a 6.1 average is nothing to dismiss. 

While Inside Zone Slam Reads and Off-Tackles are among Alabama's top yardage gainers, the rest are occupied by passes with two being Slant Variations. If you have watched any of their games this season, it is fairly obvious slants are a big aspect to this offense. Often the tags off an RPO, Slant Variations have been featured all over their season highlight reels. The two variants responsible for the most yardage thus far have been Tosser and Slap. Tosser is a term used for all slants or dual slants to the same side of the formation. Slap is such for an outside slant, inside flat or bubble combo. Tosser connections are the second best yardage gainer for this offense by a mere six yards while Slap combos have yielded a 62.5% Success Rate and average 20.5 yards per target. Overall, Slant Variations have combined for over 140 yards of the next closest collection of related concepts while averaging nearly 18 yards per chance. This should make Alabama fans giddy as Tennessee's defense has allowed opposing SEC offenses a 66.7% Success Rate on Slants heading into Week 8. 

As far as dropback pass patterns go, Crosses and variants on Chip Kelly's version of the Mesh pattern remain their best at gobbling up real estate. Crosses, which are weak side floods often named due to a slot receiver performing the titular route, have gained the fourth most yards on a 66.7% Success Rate. Considering Crosses are designed for an intermediate to deep pass attempt, it's safe to say the rate of return on these has been phenomenal.

Still, Kelly Meshes have been this offense's most successful look that composes at least 2% of play calls. Meshes are plays with two intersecting drag routes with complimentary digs, corners, fades that can vary from team to team. Chip Kelly's version always calls for a sit hook overtop the intersecting drags with the halfback running a wheel route towards that direction. Alabama has been successful on 87.5% of these plays further cementing the notion their receivers are very hard to bottle up. 

Tua Tagovailoa Year Over Year

Tua Tagovailoa's sophomore campaign vaulted him from a feel-good freshman to a top-tier thrower. He was in a class of his own in many advanced stats as the year played out. Though some injuries slowed his momentum, Tagovailoa finished at or near the top of every meaningful stat we track in 2018. Hopes were high as were his chances of becoming Nick Saban's latest Heisman Trophy winner entering this season but he has failed to return to his status of looking down on the rest of the passers not only in the nation but within the SEC. 

With Steve Sarkisian back calling plays and more RPOs being dialed up than the year prior, I wondered out loud if something was wrong with Tua behind the scenes or if it was just early season by-products getting used to a new OC. I mean if you have one of the best college passers in recent memory, why are you making him rely on short yard-after-the-catch designs that riddle West Coast Offenses as opposed to letting his targets gallop underneath a well-thrown deep route.

Silly as it sounds when he was throwing touchdown after touchdown, I kept seeing him failing to make certain throws he excelled at last fall, which further fueled my suspicions of something being up.

For the record, I sincerely doubt Tua is hurt. That being said, he continues to be a lesser passer compared to his past self when looking at his downfield accuracy. 

Year over year, his numbers are mostly what they were a year ago and some metrics his adjusted completion percentage are reaping the benefits those RPOs. Plus, his traditional numbers have been indisputably awesome. 

Still, there is a big concern glancing at his accuracy numbers. Despite coming out poor by his standards to start the year, Tagovailoa had seen four straight games with his Depth-Adjusted Accuracy% improving from the week prior before this past week. Against Texas A&M, he posted his worst clip of any game he has started at Alabama. His 28.1% clip was 12 percentage points lower than his previous low, which was at LSU last season and the game where he first hurt his knee. 

Tagovailoa is still considered an upper echelon passer in these parts and he sure as hell should be. That being said, his ball placement especially needs to improve on his intermediate and deep attempts over the rest of the season. His track record has shown he is capable of that task. It may not be fair to expect him to play perfect every Saturday but that is the standard he has set for himself. But when looking at his accuracy, many are wondering if the precision passing will show up again while he wears the Crimson and White. The supporting cast is certainly present to hide this recent downturn, but if he wants to be the top pick in April's draft scouts will wonder why he has taken a dip back to the pack. 

I think Tennessee Wins if....

They win the explosive play battle by a considerable margin. This is a lot to ask for from a rather ho-hum offense and a defensive unit currently posting the worst Havoc Rate and Defensive Success Rate against SEC opponents. I assume Tennessee would like to have long, sustained drives and methodically plod around while keeping Alabama's playmakers idle. But the thing is, Alabama will get theirs. Tennessee needs to get their own. Either by means of a long yard after catch screen, a well placed intermediate ball, or a deep fade or post Tennessee can't just expect their wideouts to have a field day. Nor should they expect to get all their explosive gains though the air. While their run game is one of the least explosive in the SEC, chunk plays will keep their momentum and spirits up against a Top15 defense in the SP+.

Balance will be key, but things can go south in a hurry if the Vol defense allows a couple of long gains during the first quarter. Now, do I think Tennessee comes out with trickeration and an aggressive going-down-swinging mindset? Probably not. If the last couple of weeks are any indicators, I think Pruitt and his staff are wanting a low-scoring rock fight with limited possessions. Still, I feel Tennessee must win the explosive play battle by at least 5 if they want any chance of victory especially if they want to strive to keep Bama's defense on the field for extended periods. 

I think Alabama Wins if...

They show up. The Crimson Tide are 35-point favorites so they don't need to hope the perfect scenario aligns in order for them to capture their 13th straight victory over Rocky Top. The SEC's 3rd most successful offense is facing the SEC defense with the worst Success Rate when playing conference opponents entering Week 8. 

The real prompt should be "I think they cover if...". Under those circumstances, I would say I think Alabama covers if they force four turnovers and at least six three and outs, which is certainly possible. Though Tennessee only averages 2.5 three-and-outs per game so far, they are dead last in the SEC in Turnover Rate and have the second worst Sack Rate. Takeaways should happen. But with how Alabama likes to coast in the second half, getting to and protecting a seven-touchdown lead is very reliant on totally shutting down your foe's offense. Tennessee's defense is 36th in the SP+ so the Tide can't take the Vols lightly or they might not reach that margin many gamblers hope to see them reach Saturday night.