While not the Granddaddy of Them All nor for all the marbles, this weekend's tilt of Florida visiting LSU is still marvelous matchup with plenty of stakes attached. The game for both the Gators and Tigers absolutely looks to further each school's case to be a National Title contender while proving some doubters wrong. That being said, the loser of this game could still win out and have a champion's chance at the playoff.

But let's be real, no one in the Bayou or the Swamp is thinking that way leading up to this one. Saturday has a must-win feel to it. This is a chance with the nation watching to prove their team belongs in the discussion of being elite and ready to challenge the likes of Clemson or Alabama. Both yearn for a marquee SEC win like the majority of us do for Chick-Fil-A on Sundays. But while we have to sit and pout for lack of chicken minis or crispy waffle fries on the Sabbath, one program should have their short term appetite quelled. 

Florida at a Glance

Let's take a look at the visiting team first. 

It doesn't take someone like me to tell you Florida has had immense difficulty manufacturing success on the ground so far in 2019. To date, the Gators have the SEC's least succesful rush attack. Only 35.6% of their carries have been situationally successful. This could be a manageable flaw if it wasn't for Dan Mullen's desire to establish the run to help the pass. Though one of the more balanced teams on first downs, they have the conference's 9th most succesful first down offense. Failing to be more efficient on these downs is a direct reflection on their inability to win in the trenches. Florida currently averages 1.34 yards before contact on first downs. Plus, the trio of LaMical Perine, Malik Davis, and Damien Pierce all fall within the SEC's bottom 8 in terms of Broken Tackle Rate of dudes with at least 20 designed carries. 

Their man man LaMical Perine just hasn't been able to be the product of a succesful rushing attack. Still, all three ball carriers have comparable Success Rates showing its more of a result of the Gators' subpar run blocking. The trio's Success Rates range from 32.1% to 30.4%. The SEC average is 47.4%. Pierce is the only one with an Explosive Run Rate above the league average. All three fall below average in percentage of runs that result in either a first down or a touchdown. 

Florida's most run play is an inside zone slam read that often has RPO tags. These plays have composed 12.1% of their calls to date but have averaged 4.87 yards per attempt with a 23% Success Rate. Slam Reads have received the bulk of the Gators' first down reps with 30. These plays have been even worse in terms of efficiency on those downs compared to their overall clip where they have only mustered a 10.7% Success Rate.

Besides Slam Reads, three of Florida's five most called concepts have been run plays. Old school one-guard Powers with and without read aspects get plenty of reps. While Powers without a read have a higher yards per attempt average, Power Reads are more consistent in terms of Success Rate and are the Gators only run concept to surpass a 50% clip on first downs. Outside Zone Reads have been faded a bit out of their script but still remain a top 6 most-called look despite a horrific 30.8% Success Rate on 4.5 yards per pop. 

Florida has produced quite well on vertical passing concepts. All Verts are not only one of the Gators' most run plays but it's also one of their best at gaining yardage. While the SEC average Success Rate on these are around 30-33%, Florida has managed to be successful on 42.9% of them for 12.7 yards per attempt. Through 6 weeks, Florida is just as likely to be successful on an All Vert pass than it is on an Off-Tackle run - both concepts have the exact same success rate. 

Another vertical concept family known as Switches have been devastating for opposing defenses. In particular, Scissor Switches (inside corner, outside post) have seen the most reps within the family and have posted the best yards per attempt clip of any play for Florida. Getting the most of their slot speed and outside playmakers, these are all about stressing secondaries. Scissors have been successful on 57.1% of their targets averaging 16 yards per attempt. 

Smash and Sail concepts have been sideline attacking looks that also have put up great numbers for the Gators. Traditional Smash plays (inside Corner, outside hitch) have been successful on 75% of targeted reps while Sails (strong floods consisting of a vertical, deep out/corner, and route to the flat on the same side of the formation) have accomplished the goal at hand on four of their five reps for 12.8 yards per attempt. 

Moving the chains consistently has been key to allowing this offense to flourish. But like on other downs, the Gator ground game has mostly floundered and posts the conference's worst Success Rate. In fact, 76 of Florida's 153 rush yards on these downs were off a single Josh Hammond Jet Sweep against Kentucky. With such a wishy washy run game, extra weight has often been put on the passing game to get the job done. So far so good as the residents of the Swamp currently rank as the NCAA's 17th best team in terms of 3rd Down Conversion% and are the SEC's 2nd most successful passing team on the money down. The Gators also have the third lowest Three-And-Out Rate in the conference. 

The potency of Florida's passing game has made them a legit title contender along with their defense. Defensively, Todd Grantham's unit is a well-rounded and as well-coached as any you'll see on Saturday's. Maybe you have heard about them being Red Zone Scrooges and a stingy scoring defense. Maybe you have heard the analytics guys rave about their Top5 SP+ Defense. Maybe you just know Todd Grantham's name and assume all will be well on that side of the ball due to his track record. While its great at the end of the day for them to limit scores, on a snap by snap basis this unit is rather average within the SEC in terms of Success and Havoc Rates. Against SEC competition, Florida really hasn't been special in these areas. But on the year they average over four sacks a game - enough to turn the tide in any heated battle. Plus, their traditional yards per play allowed by land and by air have been stout and shouldn't be taken lightly by any foe. 

Franks vs. Trask

So how much has Florida's efficiency improved with Kyle Trask at QB compared to the Feliepe Franks stints? Their overall advanced numbers are remarkably similar. 

While their individual Turnover Rates are terrible and the reason why the Gators are dead last in the SEC in that department, Trask has allowed this offense to not have any setbacks through the air. Trask is the SEC's second most accurate and succesful passer on throws that travel more than 10 yards downfield among healthy passers and has done it with a greater sample size against a harder slate than Franks (If healthy Franks' numbers would still slightly edge Trask's out in these areas).

Still, the cement-footed Trask has been utilized differently than the gliding Franks. Both Franks and Trask remarkably have the two highest Screen and Rates in the SEC so that's just a bi-product of how Mullen wants his offense to operate. The pair are also at or near the top in Play Action Rate. But Franks was way more reliant on RPOs for his completions. Nearly 17% of Franks' completions were off RPO throws - the fourth highest clip in the SEC this season. Though down from his 20% clip in 2018, this was Mullen's way of giving his scattershot passer some easy completions. To date, less than 10% of Trask's competitions have been the result of RPO throws and his rate falls within the bottom five in the conference. With the appearance of being a more comfortable passer from the pocket, Trask has seen more downfield oriented plays dialed up rather than a predetermined one-read RPO, hence his higher average depth of target. 

For example, it's nice the see the Mills concept return to its laboratory of inception. Named for former Gator Ernie Mills, this Steve Spurrier design has been successful on two of its three targets for a score with Trask at QB. A Mill/Mills calls for an inside dig and an outside post. Franks didn't target this concept when healthy this year. Though just one example, Trask is absolutely molded to be more of a dropback pass. 

In most passing stats within the SEC, the grand majority are looking up at Joe Burrow. Trask, however, does have one leg up - he is currently the conference's most successful passer within the Red Zone.

LSU at a Glance

LSU has been as impressive as any team so far this season. Captain Obvious just texted me and made sure that I mention Joe Burrow as a big reason why this has been the case. He sure as hell has been a major catalyst for this offensive awakening in Baton Rouge. In year's past, LSU's offense had been anchored by a smash mouth ground game with "game managers" at the QB spot. While some went on to have professional stints, none were true difference makers or helped hide their unit's shortcomings. Even last year, Burrow fell into that group more often than not. I'll talk more about this metamorphosis in a minute. 

In the traditional sense, this offense has been a true juggernaut the first month and change of 2019. They have the nation's top Scoring Offense, 6th best 3rd Down Conversion%, and 3rd best Offensive Yards gained. Analytically, LSU's offense rates as the SP+'s 3rd best unit while having the SEC's second best Success Rate and Three-And-Out Rate.

And no this isn't because more RunPassOptions have been called compared to years passed. Sure, they have allowed the Tigers to work in more spread tactics and open up some run lanes. But only 21% of LSU's plays have been RPOs - good for the 9th most in the SEC. 

In terms of their 5 most called offensive concepts, all of them have Success Rates over 52%. All five of them are different. Unlike the Gator's attack that sees Slam Reads rule their scripts with both Inside Powers and its read counterparts getting plenty of play, LSU's foundation is much more balanced in terms of area of attack. As you might suspect, its a lot easier to be good when the plays you call the most take care of business. 

Like Florida, their most called play has been the Inside Zone Slam Read, but LSU has been far more consistent and effective than UF running it. While their yards per carry is only about a half yard higher, the Tigers have been situationally successful on about 55% of these compared the Florida's 23% clip. Also instead of pairing their zone game staple with a traditional one-guard Power, LSU has opted to pair it with Duo Dives. Duos are gap plays without a pulling lineman or lead blocker. Since they can look like zones briefly, it can freeze backers slightly while they read their keys. The slight hesitation can be the difference between a minimal gain and getting smacked in the mouth for a chunk play. Nearly 57% of Duo Dives LSU has called this year have met their goals. 

LSU has executed when it has wanted to be aggressive. Outside of Slam Reads and Duo Dives, four of their six most called looks are dropback pass plays with three of them being Air Raid staples. Stick, Divide, and Cross concepts all are favorites of pass-happy offenses across America. Looking at those three concepts, LSU has been succesful on two of every three reps when calling those looks. Sticks are their short, quick completion play. Crosses are their intermediate play aimed to find holes in zones. Divides are when they want to pick on a safety and throw a bomb. Throw in Seam+Comeback combos into the equation and you have a diverse and effective plan to beat a variety of defenses. 

No offense has a higher first down pass rate in the SEC than LSU. One of the big changes for this unit with Joe Brady in the mix has been using the pass to set up the run. Passes usually gain more per play than runs. By passing more on early downs, it should give you more manageable chances on third downs in theory. This philosophy has worked great for the Tigers thus far. 

Slam Reads, Duo Dives, Comebacks, Divide combos, and Crosses all are the Tigers most run concepts on first downs. Divides have been solely first down plays to date as have been Switch Variations. These three looks alone have produced Success Rates 80%. But it's not all going deep on to start series. This is also the down LSU has called slants the most. In fact Tosser (dual or all slants) ties Switches for the 6th most run look and also currently has a 80% Success Rate on targeted reps. 

While mostly operating from the outside last year, Justin Jefferson moving to the slot seems to be the little tweak that has allowed other things to open up. That extra step he's had on a linebacker or safety has allowed him to put up big numbers this season and further generate some one:one opportunities outside for everyone else. Don't believe me? Go see the change in production year over year for Terrance Marshall and Ja'Marr Chase. When targeted, Jefferson owns the SEC's best Receiving Success Rate, percentage of catches that result in either a first down or touchdown, and Depth Adjusted Catch Rate all the while being second in yards per target. 

The passing game's efficiency has made the rushing attack's job a more straightforward task. All three of LSU's main backs are in the SEC's bottom five for average yards to gain per rush attempt with all three being possessing Top10 Success Rates. While they can break tackles and handle themselves well in phone booths, LSU's run game doesn't bust a lot of big gainers. It currently has the SEC's worst Explosive Run Rate. 

Though LSU's defense is above average, it is presently looked as the flaw for this Tiger team. Their Scoring Defense and 3rd Down Conversion Rate are just barely in the NCAA's Top50 and they have allowed the SEC's 3rd highest Explosive Play Rate. Havoc and Turnover plays are where they hope to rue the day. Too bad, Florida happens to lead everybody and their mothers in Takeaways this season. 

Joe Burrow Year Over Year

As aforementioned, LSU would not be taken seriously this season if it weren't for the transformation of their quarterback. You can pick any advanced passing statistic right now and Burrow is either at or near the top of the conference, which was not close to the case last season. Believe it or not, he actually threw more RPO throws on average last season than he has to this point in 2019!

I mean the numbers do the talking. This kid is en fuego right now and might only slightly cool off during conference play. There's plenty of case studies to say he will come back a bit towards the mean. Still, showing big signs of improvement on crucial downs and downfield accuracy has made his year over year production vastly different. 

Joe Burrow was dead last in Red Zone Passing Success Rate in 2018 (For what its worth all other QBs within the bottom 5 had rates in the 30's; not the mid teens like Burrow's clip) and was solidly below average on 3rd Downs. He has been able to meet his goals in those departments the vast majority of the time so far in 2019. In fact on the money down, he leads by 6 percentage points over the next closest SEC passer. The primary effect of this is more sustained drives, back-breaking completions, and points on the board - all of which are great recipes for victory. The secondary effect has been more areas of this offense getting unleashed and hence creating more pressure points with which to attack opposing defenses. The tertiary effect has made LSU's offense appointment viewing and created Joe Burrow boatloads of nicknames as he becomes a Heisman Hopeful. 

This is in large part the doing of shoring up okay downfield accuracy to elite levels. Being accurate on half of his throws that traveled at least 10 yards downfield is a great starting point for a person thrusted into the offense without a full-year to inoculate with a program in-flux. At this point in time, LSU seems to have more incendiary weapons than Duke Nukem. This all due to the outstanding year over year leap Burrow's arm has displayed. So much can be talked of Jimmies and Joes and X's and O's. But if you don't go out there and make the correct reads and throws, you're just another Average Joe.

Now the question is can this be sustained against a tough conference slate through adversity when the nation watches on. 

I think Florida Wins if....

They go all-in on the pass. One of the big reasons why LSU has seen such year over year gains offensively has been because of them allowing their passing attack to dictate and set up everything else. Through a pretty good assortment of talent faced, Trask is still one of the best in an number of passing categories. While not on Burrow's level, he can hold his own when asked to hit a downfield target. With as poopy as Florida's ground game has been, it's foolish to hope something magical can spark it during a night game in Death Valley. Play action is a massive part of what they do to allow slots to gain additional advantages on backers and safeties even when the run game has faltered. 

On the flip side, they have to limit Joe Burrow to an extent. You might have noticed Burrow is the SEC's most successful Red Zone thrower paired with the fact Florida has one of if not the best Red Zone defenses in college football. Making him uncomfortable with foreign blitzes and simulated pressures presnap could be the difference on make or break downs. Additionally, CEH and Company are some of the toughest backs to bring down in the conference. They will get there's. But if all goes to plan, that forces longer second and third downs where the Tigers have been adverse to running the rock. 

Noise with surely be a factor early and often which might entice the Gators to run more instead of Trask checking to better looks through the air. In the end, Florida will win this game if Trask gets time to pick apart an otherwise average LSU defense.

I think LSU Wins if....

They play methodically and aim to wear down this Florida defense. Though last week may have been alarming to how the Tigers offense had been playing as of late, the 90-plus play script against Utah State still met season totals and was an overwhelming statistical success. With three touchdown drives composed of 11 plays or more, that's just what they will have to do to tire out Todd Grantham's relentless front seven. This requires patience and to stick with things even if the start is not so auspicious or displays instant gratification. 

This could mean more early down carries for LSU's backs. CEH and John Emery are first and sixth respectively within the SEC in Broken Tackle Percentage. This is just the game for them to get some hidden yards after contact to tenderize the underbelly of the defense before Joe Burrow can torch it deep. 

Florida will be looking for ways to minimize Burrow's impact and have averaged over four sacks per game thus far this season. So it might be wise to explore ways to zag when a foe is expecting a zig even if that zig has displayed a ton of potency. 

For more stats on this game be sure to visit SECStatcat.com. View Passer Charts, Run Distributions, Drive Scripts, Along with Team and Individual Advanced Stats!

Jimmies and Joes, X's and O's and any stat you wanna know at SECStatcat.com!